智通财经APP获悉，中信建投证券发布研报称，3月重点城市新房成交同比增长3.5%，二手房成交同比 增长37%，二手房成交占比继续提升。核心城市表现亮眼。北上广深成杭二手房成交套数同比增速均在 30%以上。百强房企3月销售金额降幅扩大，主要系二手房替代和新开盘项目减少，但核心城市项目首 开去化率明显提升。土地市场延续火热，核心城市单价"地王"频现，推高土拍溢价率。3月全国宅地成 交溢价率为17.15%，环比提升4.4个百分点。贸易战背景下针对内需的宏观政策积极有为、靠前发力， 看好房地产行业板块整体表现。 中信建投证券主要观点如下： 新房成交延续止跌，二手房成交处于历史高位 一季度重点40城新房成交面积2580万方，同比增长4.5%。其中3月新房成交面积为1124万平，同比增长 3.5%。在新开盘项目收缩背景下，3月重点城市新房成交面积仍实现正增长，且一线城市新房成交面积 同比增速达到两位数。二手房成交景气度好于新房，一季度重点13城二手房成交面积为1960万方，同比 增长33%，成交量处于历史高位。其中3月二手房成交面积为850万方，同比增长37%，北上广深成杭六 个核心城市一季度二手房成交套数增速均在30% ...

Core Viewpoint - The overall supply and demand situation in the commercial real estate sector does not determine individual operational results, with the ability to outperform peers being crucial for success [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Increased external uncertainties are expected to boost the value of shopping centers as domestic demand is emphasized as a strategic foundation for new development [1] - Shopping centers are vital physical spaces for consumer activities, and recent government initiatives aim to enhance consumption infrastructure to stimulate domestic demand [1] Group 2: Performance Metrics - Major brand shopping centers are outperforming retail sales and rental growth, with projected average sales growth of 16.4% and rental income growth of 16.6% for three leading companies in 2024 [2] - The same companies are expected to see same-store sales growth of 6.2% and same-store rental growth of 3.1%, indicating strong operational performance [2] Group 3: Expansion and Management - The three leading companies plan to open a total of 47 new shopping centers in 2024, with significant investments in both light and heavy asset models [3] - The average same-store sales growth for these companies exceeds the industry average by 6.2 percentage points, showcasing the effectiveness of quality management [3] Group 4: Competitive Landscape - There are over 6,000 shopping centers in China, but only about 25% are managed by high-quality management companies, indicating a significant competitive advantage for these firms [4] - Established brands have geographical advantages in tenant selection and consumer behavior, which helps them maintain higher rental growth compared to the overall retail sector [4] Group 5: Asset Valuation - The development of various financial instruments like public and private REITs is driving the revaluation of commercial real estate assets, with a focus on stable cash flow properties [5] - The recognition of quality management platforms is expected to expand beyond first-tier cities by 2025, enhancing their market presence [5]

文 ｜ 陈聪 张全国 李俊波 刘河维 2 0 2 4年，华润万象生活、龙湖集团和新城控股的购物中心同店销售额跑赢社零，同店租金跑赢行 业。优质购物中心的抗风险能力显著，购物中心的先发优势显著。我们认为，随着金融市场的发 展，资金不会成为限制商业地产公司发展的要素，商业地产公司（无论轻重）价值取决于稀缺地段 +运营能力。我们看好中国核心商业地产企业的全面向上重估，包括轻资产平台的价值发现，和重 资产公司如的估值提升。 ▍ 外部不确定性增大，提振消费利好购物中心价值。 目前，外需存在较大不确定性，提振内需是构建新发展格局的战略基点。购物中心是承载居民消 费，娱乐，体验，休闲的重要物理载体，我们预计将受益于内需提振。近期，财政部、住建部要 求加强消费基础设施建设，改造城市空间以满足文化、旅游、餐饮、休闲娱乐需求，以中央财政 支持以刺激内需。 ▍ 头部品牌购物中心同店销售额跑赢社零，租金增长跑赢行业。 我们基于公司公告数据测算，三大上市公司华润万象生活、龙湖集团、新城控股2 0 2 4年在营购物 中心销售额平均增长1 6 . 4%，同店销售额平均增长6 . 2%，租金及管理费收入平均增长1 6 . 6%，同 店租金平 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate sector, with a focus on financially stable and well-performing leading companies [2]. Core Views - Recent government policies have been implemented to support the real estate market, including the cancellation of sales restrictions in Nanjing and adjustments to down payment ratios in Tianjin, which are expected to stimulate demand [7][17]. - The real estate market is experiencing structural differentiation, with new home sales declining while second-hand home sales show slight resilience [7][21]. - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on leading real estate companies that can effectively navigate market fluctuations, such as Poly Developments, China Merchants Shekou, and China Resources Mixc Life [7][19]. Weekly Market Review - The Shenwan Real Estate Index decreased by 0.9%, while the CSI 300 Index fell by 1.37%, indicating that the sector outperformed the broader market by 0.47% [3][13]. - The total market capitalization of the real estate sector is approximately 1,034.3 billion yuan, with a circulating market value of about 995.5 billion yuan [8]. Industry Fundamentals Primary Market Analysis - In the week of March 28 to April 3, a total of 31,221 new homes were sold across 38 key cities, representing a year-on-year decline of 33.7% and a month-on-month decline of 15% [5][21]. - The total transaction area for new homes was 3.821 million square meters, with a year-on-year decrease of 27.7% and a month-on-month decrease of 5.9% [5][21]. Secondary Market Analysis - During the same week, 22,398 second-hand homes were sold in 16 key cities, showing a year-on-year increase of 1.2% but a month-on-month decrease of 10.7% [32]. - The total transaction area for second-hand homes was 2.178 million square meters, with a year-on-year increase of 4.7% and a month-on-month decrease of 11.5% [32]. Inventory Situation - The inventory of commercial housing in 17 key cities was 186.291 million square meters, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.5% and a depletion cycle of 156.6 weeks [45][52]. Land Market Analysis - In the week of March 24 to March 30, land supply reached 21.186 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 19.2%, while the average supply price was 2,715 yuan per square meter, up 223.2% year-on-year [53]. - Land transactions totaled 23.359 million square meters, with a transaction amount of 62.15 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 55.4% [53].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors [2][3]. Core Insights - The report highlights the importance of stabilizing the real estate market in response to the ongoing trade war, emphasizing the need for domestic demand expansion [2][3]. - It notes a significant decline in both new and second-hand housing transactions, with new home sales in 34 key cities dropping by 23% week-on-week and 26% year-on-year in April [4][7]. - The report indicates that the government is implementing policies to stabilize the market, including the cancellation of housing transfer restrictions in Nanjing and the expansion of housing fund withdrawal policies [32][33]. Industry Data Summary New Housing Transaction Volume - New housing sales in 34 key cities totaled 3.093 million square meters last week, a week-on-week decrease of 23.4% [4]. - Year-on-year, new housing sales in April are down 26%, with first and second-tier cities seeing a 21% decline and third and fourth-tier cities experiencing a 49% drop [7][8]. Second-Hand Housing Transaction Volume - Second-hand housing sales in 13 key cities fell by 26.2% week-on-week, with April sales down 15% year-on-year [13]. - Cumulative sales for the year to date show a 26.5% increase compared to the previous year [13]. New Housing Inventory - In 15 key cities, 710,000 square meters of new housing were launched last week, with a sales-to-launch ratio of 2.08, indicating a continued trend of inventory reduction [21]. - The total available residential area in these cities is 88.71 million square meters, reflecting a 0.9% decrease week-on-week [21]. Policy and News Tracking - The report discusses macroeconomic policies, including the imposition of tariffs on U.S. imports and the rise in manufacturing PMI to 50.5%, indicating a recovery in manufacturing activity [32][33]. - It highlights local government initiatives, such as Nanjing's cancellation of housing transfer restrictions and the expansion of housing fund policies in various cities [32][33]. - The report also notes the active land market in core cities, with significant land sales and project launches reported in the first quarter of 2025 [32][33].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a strong investment opportunity with expected returns exceeding market benchmarks by over 15% in the next 6-12 months [6]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 17 billion RMB in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 15.4%, with a net profit of 3.63 billion RMB, up 23.9% from the previous year [1][4]. - The shopping center operations are performing exceptionally well, with the number of managed shopping centers reaching a five-year high, contributing significantly to revenue growth [2][3]. - The company has expanded its urban services segment, generating 1.82 billion RMB in revenue, a 36.3% increase year-on-year, indicating a strategic diversification of services [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a total revenue of 17.04 billion RMB, with a gross profit of 5.61 billion RMB and a gross margin of 32.9%, which is an increase of 1.1 percentage points year-on-year [1][5]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.63 billion RMB, marking a 23.9% increase compared to 2023 [1][5]. Shopping Center Operations - The company managed 118 shopping centers by the end of 2024, an increase of 20 centers from the previous year, achieving a retail sales volume of 215 billion RMB, which is an 18.7% increase year-on-year [2]. - The rental income from property owners reached 26.2 billion RMB, up 19.2% year-on-year, with an operating profit margin of 65.1% [2]. Urban Services Expansion - The urban services segment has been established, providing management services for various facilities, generating 1.82 billion RMB in revenue, which constitutes 10.7% of total revenue [3]. - The number of managed urban service projects reached 438, with a managed area of 12 million square meters, reflecting a significant increase [3]. Employee and Dividend Insights - The company employed 42,046 full-time staff by the end of 2024, with a 12.5% increase in revenue per employee and a 20.8% increase in profit per employee [3]. - The total dividend payout for 2024 was 4.8 billion RMB, resulting in a dividend yield of 6.7%, which is considered attractive [3][4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [9]. Core Insights - The company is characterized as a long-term investment target with both "good sector" and "good company" attributes, being a rare all-business leader. Its excellent commercial operation capabilities enable steady growth in shopping center operations, while quality property management capabilities drive scale and revenue growth. The company has demonstrated financial strength by maintaining a 100% dividend payout for two consecutive years, indicating robust cash reserves and a flexible decision-making mechanism that is expected to support long-term development [2][10]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 17.04 billion (up 15.4%) and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.63 billion (up 23.9%). The core net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.51 billion (up 20.1%), with a comprehensive gross margin of 32.9% (up 1.1 percentage points). The annual dividend payout ratio was 100%, resulting in a dividend yield of 4.7% [6][10]. Shopping Center Operations - The company experienced resilient growth in commercial operations, further solidifying its industry leadership. In 2024, retail sales increased by 18.7% to 215 billion (with a comparable growth rate of 4.6%), outperforming the overall retail sales growth of 3.5%. Rental income from owners reached 26.2 billion (up 19.2%), and net operating income (NOI) grew by 20.0% to 17.1 billion. The company opened 21 new shopping centers in 2024, marking the highest number in its history, and ended the year with a total of 122 shopping centers [10]. Property Management - The company’s property management segment saw an increase in managed area to 413 million square meters (up 11.6%). The revenue from property management reached 10.71 billion (up 11.6%), driven by scale expansion. The gross margin for property management was 17.0% (down 0.5 percentage points) [10]. Future Projections - The company is expected to achieve net profits attributable to shareholders of 4.34 billion, 4.98 billion, and 5.58 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with growth rates of 19%, 15%, and 12%. The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios are projected to be 17, 15, and 13 times [2][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a BUY rating for CR MixC Lifestyle with a target price of HK$45.3, reflecting a 29% upside from the current price of HK$35.10 [3][8]. Core Insights - CR MixC's FY24 revenue increased by 15% YoY to RMB 17 billion, slightly missing guidance by 3%, primarily due to a decline in value-added services (VAS) [8]. - Net profit rose 24% YoY to RMB 3.6 billion, exceeding guidance by 4%, driven by strong performance in shopping mall operations and effective cost control [8][9]. - The company aims for double-digit net profit growth in FY25, with an estimated 21%+ core net profit growth required to meet the 14th Five-Year Plan targets [8][10]. Financial Performance - FY24 revenue: RMB 17,043 million, with a YoY growth of 15.4% [2]. - FY24 net profit: RMB 3,629 million, with a YoY growth of 23.9% [2]. - The gross profit margin improved to 32.9% in FY24, up from 31.8% in FY23 [9][14]. - The company declared a 100% dividend payout based on core net profit, increasing the basic payout ratio to 60% from 55% in FY23 [8][10]. Revenue Breakdown - Shopping mall revenue surged by 30% YoY, contributing significantly to overall revenue growth [8]. - Urban space revenue increased by 36% YoY, supported by a 20% rise in managed gross floor area (GFA) and improved collection rates [8][9]. - Non-owner VAS revenue declined by 12% YoY, while owner VAS saw a 6% increase [8]. Future Projections - FY25E revenue is projected to reach RMB 19,821 million, reflecting a 16.3% YoY growth [2]. - FY25E net profit is estimated at RMB 4,321 million, indicating a 19.1% YoY growth [2]. - The company expects to maintain a strong growth trajectory, with a focus on expanding its shopping mall operations and enhancing third-party services [8][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Resources Vientiane Life (01209.HK) with a target price of HKD 39.04 [2][8] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of approximately HKD 17.043 billion in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 15.4%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was HKD 3.629 billion, up 23.9% year-on-year, while the core net profit attributable to shareholders was about HKD 3.507 billion, increasing by 20.1% year-on-year. The gross margin improved to 32.9%, an increase of 1.1 percentage points year-on-year [2][4] Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Growth**: The total revenue for 2024 is projected at HKD 17.043 billion, with expected growth rates of 15% in 2025, 12% in 2026, and 12% in 2027 [4] - **Net Profit**: The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be HKD 3.629 billion in 2024, with growth rates of 24% in 2025, 15% in 2026, and 15% in 2027 [4] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: EPS is expected to be HKD 1.59 in 2024, increasing to HKD 1.82 in 2025, HKD 2.08 in 2026, and HKD 2.39 in 2027 [4] - **Valuation Ratios**: The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 20 in 2024, decreasing to 14 by 2027, while the price-to-book (P/B) ratio remains stable at 4 for 2024 and 2025, and drops to 3 in 2026 and 2027 [4] Business Segment Performance - **Shopping Centers**: Revenue from shopping centers reached HKD 4.209 billion in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 30%, with a gross margin of 72.6%. The retail sales in managed shopping centers grew by 18.7% year-on-year [8] - **Property Management**: The property management segment generated revenue of HKD 10.715 billion, up 11.6% year-on-year, although the overall gross margin slightly decreased to 17.0% [8] - **Office Buildings**: Revenue from office buildings was HKD 2.065 billion, reflecting a 7.1% year-on-year increase, with a gross margin of 34.9% [8] Dividend Policy - The company has maintained a 100% payout ratio for core net profit attributable to shareholders for two consecutive years, with total dividends per share reaching HKD 1.536, resulting in a dividend yield of approximately 5% based on the closing price on March 27 [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2][17]. Core Insights - The company achieved a comprehensive revenue of 170.43 billion RMB in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 15.4%, with core net profit growing by 20.1% to 35.07 billion RMB [7][8]. - The comprehensive gross margin and net profit margin attributable to the parent company were 32.91% and 21.30%, respectively, both showing improvements compared to the previous year [7][8]. - The board declared a final dividend of 0.643 RMB per share, an increase of 33.7% year-on-year, maintaining a total payout ratio of 100% for 2024 [7][8]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue and Profit Forecasts**: - Revenue is projected to grow from 14,767 million RMB in 2023 to 19,797 million RMB in 2025, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 16.2% [6]. - Net profit is expected to increase from 2,929 million RMB in 2023 to 4,300 million RMB in 2025, reflecting a CAGR of 18.5% [6]. - The fully diluted EPS is forecasted to rise from 1.28 RMB in 2023 to 1.88 RMB in 2025 [6]. - **Margins and Returns**: - The gross margin is expected to improve from 31.8% in 2023 to 32.91% in 2025, while the return on equity (ROE) is projected to increase from 18.4% to 21.96% over the same period [6][16]. Business Segment Performance - **Commercial Segment**: - The commercial segment achieved retail sales of 215 billion RMB in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 18.7%, outperforming the retail sales growth of the broader market [11][12]. - The company opened 21 new shopping centers in 2024, bringing the total to 122 operational centers, with 50 centers leading in local market sales [11][12]. - **Property Management Segment**: - The total managed area reached 413 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 11.6%, with a focus on expanding in first and second-tier cities [13]. - The company signed 3,485 million square meters of new third-party contracts, enhancing its market position [13]. - **Membership Business**: - The membership program saw a 32.0% increase in total members, reaching 61.07 million, with significant growth in cross-industry point redemption [17]