观点指数 11月25日观点指数研究院发布的《资本市场退潮 | 2025年11月物业服务发展报告》指出，金科 服务将成为蓝光嘉宝服务、华发物业、融信服务之后，第四家退市的港股物企，凸显物企在资本市场被 持续边缘化。同时期，华润万象生活重回千亿港元市值，我们认为这主要得益于其"商业运营+物业管 理"双轮驱动模式、稳健的财务表现以及在物业行业中的头部地位。 11月18日，金科服务与Broad Gongga Investment Pte. Ltd（最终控股股东为博裕）发布联合公告，后者作 为要约人，提出经修订的无条件强制性现金要约以推动金科服务私有化退市。 根据公告，要约人目前持有金科服务63.29%的股份，并为收购剩余267,722,054股创新采用双层定价结 构：基本价每股6.67港元（总代价约17.86亿港元），若两个退市条件达成则支付经提高价每股8.69港元 （总代价约23.27亿港元）。目前已锁定约29%的股份，还需至少32.30%的股东接纳才能触发退市高 价。 | 股東名稱 | 於初步公告日期 | | 緊隨拍賣股份過戶完成後 | | 龄本公告日期 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry [5] Core Insights - Recent "14th Five-Year Plan" proposals from various regions emphasize the need for "good housing" and a "market + guarantee" supply-side policy, aiming for high-quality urban renewal and improved housing supply for low-income families [1][10] - The real estate sector is under pressure, with a significant year-on-year decline in new home sales, indicating a challenging market environment [2][22] - The report suggests that the policy environment is expected to strengthen, with a focus on improving the competitive landscape, particularly benefiting leading state-owned enterprises and quality developers [3] Summary by Sections 1. "14th Five-Year Plan" Proposals - Multiple regions have released proposals highlighting the importance of quality housing and a balanced supply system, focusing on urban renewal and affordable housing for disadvantaged families [1][10] 2. Market Review - The Shenwan Real Estate Index decreased by 2.2% this week, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 3.43 percentage points, ranking 30th among 31 Shenwan primary industries [11] - A total of 30 stocks rose, while 82 stocks fell, indicating a challenging market sentiment [11] 3. New and Second-Hand Housing Transactions - New home sales in 30 cities totaled 176.6 million square meters this week, down 6.5% month-on-month and 47.7% year-on-year [2][22] - Second-hand home sales in 14 cities amounted to 190.7 million square meters, reflecting a 5.3% decrease from the previous week and a 40.8% decline year-on-year [33] 4. Credit Bond Issuance - This week, 9 credit bonds were issued by real estate companies, totaling 6.568 billion yuan, a decrease of 11.272 billion yuan from the previous week, with a net financing amount of -2.132 billion yuan [3][42]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors, particularly focusing on the shopping center industry [4][5]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the consumption industry and shopping center sector in China still have significant growth potential, driven by an expected increase in total consumption and a structural recovery [4][5]. - Leading commercial companies have achieved stable same-store growth and expansion through operational alpha, which may lead to a revaluation of IP (Intellectual Property) values [4][5]. - The report draws comparisons with the U.S. commercial real estate market, highlighting that during five interest rate cut cycles, commercial real estate indices consistently yielded positive returns, significantly outperforming other asset classes [4][5]. Summary by Sections Macro Perspective - The domestic consumption sector remains under pressure, with retail sales growth gradually recovering to +4.3% as of October 2025, while CPI remains low at +0.2% [14][21]. - Compared to the U.S. and Japan during their real estate crises, China's consumption resilience is still relatively strong [14][21]. - Long-term growth potential exists in the consumption sector, particularly in shopping centers, as GDP per capita and retail sales per capita are expected to rise [28][31]. Mid-level Perspective - As of Q3 2025, the total area of centralized commercial space in China reached 661 million square meters, with a year-on-year growth of +4.4% [49]. - The number of new openings has decreased, but the proportion of reopened projects after adjustments has increased, indicating a shift in strategy [53]. - The report notes that 57% of existing projects have been open for over five years, highlighting the importance of effective asset management [53]. Micro Perspective - Leading companies in the sector exhibit significant operational efficiency, with top firms showing a concentration of 19% in opening area as of 2024 [4][5]. - Key companies are expected to see a revaluation of their IP, with potential increases of 39% for China Resources Land and 33% for New World Development [4][5]. - The report indicates that the average operating profit margin for IP is between 55% and 84%, with dividend yields for major companies exceeding 5% [4][5]. U.S. Market Review - The report highlights that during five interest rate cut cycles, the NCREIF commercial real estate price index achieved an average return of 31%, second only to gold [4][5]. - The long-term same-store NOI (Net Operating Income) growth in the U.S. has been stable, correlating positively with GDP growth [4][5]. Catalysts for Growth - The report suggests that the high barriers to entry in commercial operations will enhance the competitive advantage of leading firms, especially as the "residential development supports commercial" model weakens [4][5]. - The introduction of C-REITs (Real Estate Investment Trusts) is expected to further support the revaluation of commercial assets [4][5].

Core Viewpoints - The parent company holds a large number of high-quality shopping malls, while China Resources Vientiane's light asset management enjoys spatial positioning and scale advantages, providing strong pricing power over merchants. The growth of same-store sales and scale will enhance operational leverage, ensuring strong revenue and profit growth in the future [1][2] Company Competitive Advantages - The core competitive advantage of the company's management lies in the strengthened bargaining power with merchants, supported by the parent company's stable growth and large-scale quality shopping center contracts. The parent company is an early entrant in the Chinese shopping center sector, having strategically positioned itself in key regional markets and maintaining a leading position in the industry. This provides the company with scarce resources and strong negotiation power for lease adjustments, enabling it to achieve long-term same-store growth [2] Operational Efficiency and Profitability - With the same-store growth and scale expansion of Vientiane shopping centers, the company's operational leverage is expected to increase, leading to higher profit margins in management operations. Most costs at the individual shopping center project level are relatively fixed or grow in line with inflation, so steady growth in same-store rents can lead to an increase in NOIMargin. As the parent company continues to build new shopping centers, the headquarters' leasing and marketing personnel can manage more projects, enhancing labor efficiency and driving profit margins upward [2] Financial Adjustments and Investment Recommendations - Based on the latest financial report, the company has adjusted the revenue growth rates and gross margins for shopping center management and property management, while lowering the fee rates. The revised EPS forecasts for 2025-2026 are 1.73 and 2.12 yuan (previously 1.88 and 2.19 yuan), with a new forecast for 2027 at 2.44 yuan. Using the DCF valuation method, the target price is set at 52.55 HKD (1 HKD = 0.910 RMB), maintaining a "buy" rating [2]

Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index closed at 26,033, up 0.67% for the day and up 29.78% year-to-date [1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 0.82% to 5,644, with a year-to-date increase of 26.33% [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.65% to 3,914, with a year-to-date rise of 16.77% [1] - The Dow Jones Index fell by 0.90% to 47,289, with a year-to-date increase of 11.15% [1] Currency and Commodity Overview - The Renminbi Index stands at 97.920, with a 1-month increase of 0.38% and a 6-month increase of 1.79% [2] - Brent crude oil is priced at $63.570 per barrel, down 0.98% over the past month but up 3.13% over the past six months [2] - Gold is priced at $4,256.22 per ounce, with a 1-month increase of 6.37% and a 6-month increase of 25.87% [2] Company News - Kangji Medical's privatization plan has been approved by the Grand Court, with the plan expected to take effect on December 5, 2025 [19] - HashKey Holdings has passed the listing hearing with plans to raise $500 million and seek a listing this month [16] - The real estate crisis in China continues, with major data providers instructed to halt the release of sales data for property companies [17] Economic Indicators - China's official manufacturing PMI for November recorded at 49.2, below market expectations of 49.3 [13] - The non-manufacturing PMI for November was reported at 49.5, also below expectations of 50 [10] - Hong Kong's retail sales value for October increased by 6.9% year-on-year, with online sales rising over 27% [15]

股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2025年11月30日 狀態: 新提交 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 公司名稱: 華潤萬象生活有限公司 呈交日期: 2025年12月1日 I. 法定/註冊股本變動 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | 不適用 | | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | 是 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 01209 | 說明 | | | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 5,000,000,000 | USD | | 0.00001 | USD | | 50,000 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | | | | | USD | | | | 本月底結存 | | | 5,000,000,000 | USD | | 0.00001 | USD | | 50,000 | 本月底法定/註冊股本 ...

Core Viewpoint - Dongfang Securities maintains a "Buy" rating for China Resources Vientiane Life (01209) with a target price of HKD 52.55, leveraging the high-quality property resources held by its parent company, China Resources Land, without incurring heavy asset investment and development risks [1] Group 1 - The parent company holds a large volume of high-quality shopping malls, allowing China Resources Vientiane to enjoy spatial positioning and scale advantages in a light asset management model [2] - China Resources Vientiane has strong pricing power over merchants, with same-store and scale growth driving operational leverage, ensuring strong revenue and profit growth in the future [2] - The company’s light asset model avoids large capital investments while benefiting from the operational dividends of the parent company's substantial and high-quality projects, resulting in lower risk and higher profitability [2] Group 2 - The core competitive advantage of the company in commercial management lies in its strengthened bargaining power with merchants, supported by the parent company's stable growth and large-scale quality shopping center contracts [2] - The parent company is an early entrant in the shopping center sector in China, occupying key market areas and maintaining a leading position in the industry, which provides the company with scarce luxury resources and strong negotiation power for lease adjustments [2] - The company’s professional and creative team continuously seeks optimal solutions in a dynamic market, leading to a positive feedback loop of foot traffic, sales, and brand attraction, enabling the managed shopping centers to outperform consumer fundamentals and achieve long-term same-store growth [2] Group 3 - With the same-store growth and scale expansion of the Vientiane shopping centers, the company’s operational leverage is enhanced, and the profit margin of commercial management is expected to continue to improve [3] - Most costs at the individual shopping center project level are relatively fixed or grow in line with inflation, so steady growth in same-store rents can lead to an increase in NOI Margin [3] - As the parent company continues to build new shopping centers, the headquarters' leasing and marketing personnel can manage more projects, improving labor efficiency and driving profit margins upward [3]

Core Viewpoint - Oriental Securities maintains a "Buy" rating for China Resources Mixc Lifestyle Services (01209) with a target price of HKD 52.55, highlighting the company's advantage of leveraging high-quality property resources from its parent company, China Resources Land, without incurring heavy asset investment and development risks [1] Group 1 - The parent company holds a substantial amount of high-quality shopping malls, allowing China Resources Mixc to enjoy spatial positioning and scale advantages through a light asset management model [1] - The company possesses strong pricing power over merchants, with revenue and profit growth in its management business being highly certain due to same-store and scale growth driving operational leverage [2] - The market often compares Mixc shopping centers to Longfor Group's Longfor Tianjie and New World Group's Wuyue Plaza, but the latter two are burdened with significant upfront capital investment and longer return cycles, while Mixc operates under a light asset model that minimizes capital input while benefiting from the parent company's large-scale, high-quality projects [1][2] Group 2 - The core competitive advantage of the company's management lies in its strengthening bargaining power with merchants, supported by the parent company's stable growth and large-scale quality shopping center contracts [2] - The parent company is an early entrant in the shopping center sector, securing key market locations and maintaining a leading position in the industry, which provides the company with scarce luxury resources and strong negotiation power for lease adjustments [2] - The company’s professional and creative team continuously seeks optimal solutions in a dynamic market, resulting in a positive feedback loop of customer traffic, sales, and brand attraction, enabling the managed shopping centers to outperform consumer fundamentals and achieve long-term same-store growth [2] Group 3 - With the same-store growth and scale expansion of Mixc shopping centers, the company's operational leverage is expected to enhance, leading to continued profit margin improvement in management operations [3] - Most costs at the individual shopping center project level are relatively fixed or grow in line with inflation, thus steady growth in same-store rents can lead to an increase in NOI margin [3] - As the parent company continues to build new shopping centers, the headquarters' leasing and marketing personnel can manage more projects, enhancing labor efficiency and driving profit margins upward [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Resources Vientiane Life [1] Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from its light asset management model, which allows it to enjoy operational benefits without significant capital investment, leading to lower risk and higher profit margins [5][24] - The company's strong bargaining power with merchants is supported by its parent company's stable growth and large-scale quality shopping centers, enhancing its ability to achieve long-term same-store growth [8][9] Financial Performance - The company's revenue is projected to grow from 14,767 million HKD in 2023 to 22,596 million HKD in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.1% [7] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 2,929 million HKD in 2023 to 5,572 million HKD in 2027, reflecting a CAGR of 15.3% [7] - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2025 and 2026 is adjusted to 1.73 HKD and 2.12 HKD, respectively, with a new estimate for 2027 at 2.44 HKD [6][12] Market Position and Competitive Advantage - The company operates under a light asset model, which allows it to leverage the parent company's extensive resources without the burden of heavy capital investment, thus maintaining a competitive edge in the market [18][24] - The parent company, China Resources Land, has a significant number of shopping centers, with 92 operational centers and 35 under construction, providing a stable and growing contract base for the company [41][42] - The company's ability to secure prime locations in high-tier cities enhances its market position and operational performance, leading to a strong upward trend in rental income [30][36] Growth Drivers - Key growth drivers include same-store sales growth exceeding expectations, new third-party contracts, and accelerated monetization of membership programs [11] - The company is expected to continue benefiting from the industry’s Matthew effect, where leading players gain more market share and operational advantages [10][36]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes a strategic shift towards large financial and consumer sectors, indicating a rebound opportunity following a period of panic due to tariff impacts [2] - The report highlights a positive performance in the A-share market, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising over 10% to above 3800 points since the mid-year strategy was introduced [2] Overall Assessment - The report suggests a cautious approach, recommending investors to wait for opportunities to buy on dips. It notes that liquidity-driven adjustments have stabilized, with certain asset classes like TMT and precious metals leading the rebound [3][7] - The report anticipates that the upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate cuts will further bolster market confidence, despite short-term investor caution in domestic sectors like lithium batteries and storage [3][7] Configuration Direction - The report advises a gradual investment strategy based on economic expectations and valuation attractiveness, focusing on quality dividends and cyclical opportunities in sectors such as real estate, resource commodities, and consumer sentiment [4][9] - It identifies four key areas for medium-term investment: technology (AI trends), high-end manufacturing (global investment cycle), consumer (high-quality overseas profits), and resource commodities (supply-side dynamics) [4][9] Top Stock Picks - The report lists ten recommended stocks across various sectors, including TCL Electronics, Action Education, Anjuke Food, Petty Co., Chengda Pharmaceutical, Haiguang Information, Lixing Co., Jitu Express, Beibu Gulf Port, and China Resources Mixc Living [4][5]