Summary of China Resources Mixc Lifestyle (1209.HK) Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: China Resources Mixc Lifestyle (1209.HK) - **Industry**: Commercial Property Management and Retail Key Points and Arguments Competitive Edge and Growth Opportunities - **Buy Rating**: The company maintains a Buy rating due to its competitive advantage in commercial management and a clear multi-year growth trajectory [1] - **Third-Party Mall Management**: The company is expected to expand significantly through third-party mall management, enhancing scale and margins via operating leverage [1] - **Luxury Mall Positioning**: CR Mixc's leading position in luxury malls is anticipated to benefit from the recovery in luxury consumption, particularly in high-tier cities [1][3] Growth Projections - **3P Mall Expansion**: The company plans to launch 40 third-party managed malls over the next five years, contributing to an average of mid-teens new mall openings annually [1] - **CAGR Expectations**: Projected 11% CAGR in managed mall GFA from 2026E to 2028E, with a 6% CAGR for CR Land and a 24% CAGR for third-party malls [1] - **Topline Growth**: The overall commercial segment is expected to deliver a 12% topline CAGR from 2026E to 2028E, accounting for 41% of topline and 74% of gross profit by 2028E [3] Financial Performance - **Core Earnings Estimates**: Core earnings are expected to grow at an average of 15% year-over-year from 2025E to 2027E, with a 14% growth projected for 2028E [4] - **Revenue Growth**: Revenue is projected to grow at a 10% CAGR from 2026E to 2028E, driven by commercial expansion and residential growth [4] - **Profit Margin Expansion**: Anticipated profit margin expansion, with gross profit margin expected to reach approximately 80% by 2028E [3] Cash Flow and Shareholder Returns - **Free Cash Flow**: Expected average annual free cash flow of RMB 7 billion from 2026E to 2028E, translating to an average 8% free cash flow yield [5] - **Dividend Policy**: The company has maintained a 100% payout ratio of core profit since 2023, with forecasts of a 100% payout for 2025E and 65% for 2026E and beyond [5] Valuation and Price Target - **Target Price**: The target price is revised from HK$40.0 to HK$56.0, based on an 18X 2028E free cash flow multiple [4][6] - **Valuation Metrics**: CR Mixc trades at 19X/17X/15X P/E for 2026E-2028E, with a projected 14% EPS CAGR, indicating a 31% upside potential [6] Risks - **Execution Risks**: Potential risks include slower-than-expected scale expansion and margin improvement in the residential property management segment [13] - **Market Conditions**: Weaker-than-expected execution on value-added services and mall operations could impact performance [13] Additional Important Insights - **Strategic Focus on Quality**: The management emphasizes quality over volume in the residential segment, projecting a net addition of approximately 40 million sqm of GFA per annum from 2026E to 2028E [5] - **Operational Efficiency**: Continued efficiency gains are expected, with SG&A as a percentage of revenue optimizing by -0.3pp annually from 2026E to 2028E [4] This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call regarding China Resources Mixc Lifestyle, highlighting its growth strategies, financial projections, and market positioning.

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry [4] Core Insights - The Shanghai land market is showing signs of recovery with improved land quality and increased willingness among developers to acquire land [8] - The land supply in Shanghai for 2025 is reported at 1.6524 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 2.16%, while the planned construction area is 3.2134 million square meters, a decrease of 3.71% [12][19] - The average premium rate for land transactions in Shanghai reached 15.75% in 2025, an increase of 5.47 percentage points year-on-year, with total land transfer fees amounting to 140.022 billion yuan, up 1.46% year-on-year [23] Summary by Sections 1. Shanghai Land Supply and Transaction Situation - The total area of land released for construction in Shanghai in 2025 is 1.6524 million square meters, with a planned construction area of 3.2134 million square meters [12] - The transaction area of construction land in 2025 is 1.6402 million square meters, a decrease of 5.63% year-on-year, while the planned construction area transacted is 3.1610 million square meters, down 14.46% year-on-year [19] - The average transaction floor price is 44,297.15 yuan per square meter, an increase of 8.63% year-on-year, and the average land price is 85,358.89 yuan per square meter, up 7.50% year-on-year [21] 2. Shanghai Land Auction Analysis - The top 10 high-premium land parcels are primarily located in the Pudong New Area and Hongkou District, indicating higher auction activity in these central urban areas compared to suburban regions [38] - The auction market in 2025 saw no failed bids, reflecting a robust demand for land [47] 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading real estate companies with stable performance and high safety margins, such as China Merchants Shekou, Binjiang Group, and Huafa Group [47] - Beneficiary stocks recommended include Yuexiu Property, Greentown China, China Overseas Development, and China Resources Land [47] - For the property sector, recommended companies include China Resources Vientiane Life, China Overseas Property, Poly Property, and China Merchants Jinling [47]

Core Viewpoint - The company's shopping center segment has become a significant profit pillar, demonstrating operational capabilities that exceed industry peers, with retail sales growth of 20-25% year-on-year from January to September, compared to a 3.0% increase in social retail sales [1][2]. Group 1: Shopping Center Segment - The shopping center segment's gross profit contribution reached 56.3% in the first half of FY25, solidifying its status as a key profit driver [2]. - Retail sales during the National Day holiday increased by 25% year-on-year, significantly outperforming the 10.2% growth in key shopping districts in Shanghai [2]. - The company has opened 10 shopping centers by September and is on track to meet its target of 14 openings for the year, with expected revenue and gross profit growth rates of 18% and 27% respectively in FY25 [2]. Group 2: Property Management Segment - The company aims for an annual contract amount of approximately 1 billion yuan in third-party expansion, having completed nearly 800 million yuan by September [3]. - The residential segment's revenue and gross profit grew by 6.5% and 1.7% year-on-year, respectively, with gross profit margins impacted by value-added services [3]. - The company maintains a 100% dividend payout for 2023, 2024, and the first half of FY25, resulting in an attractive dividend yield of 4.4% among state-owned enterprises [3]. Group 3: Investment Rating and Valuation - The target price has been raised by 18% to HKD 51.84, primarily due to a 5% increase in the target price-to-earnings ratio to 23x, reflecting the strong performance of the retail segment [3]. - The company is expected to maintain a higher profit growth rate than its peers, with a diversified layout and an attractive dividend yield, reinforcing its competitive advantage among state-owned enterprises [3].

摩根大通发表研报指，在近日举行的中央经济工作会议上，关于对房地产市场的表态与先前类似，但与 过去几次政府会议相比，今次关于房地产市场的着墨更多，显示稳定房地产行业仍是内地关键任务之 一。摩通表示，今次会议上未提及具体措施，但认为下一步的政策措施或推出旨在降低购房成本的措 施。该行首选股为华润置地、华润万象生活与中国金茂。 ...

招银国际发表报告指，华润万象生活购物中心板块已成为绝对利润支柱，且持续展现远超同业的营运能 力。首三季零售额按年增20-25%，同期社零为3%，国庆期间零售额按年增25%，同期上海重点商圈增 长10.2%。该行预计板块利润贡献占比将在2025财年提高5个百分点至接近60%，基于此将公司目标市盈 率倍数提高5%至23倍，同时将估值对应年份滚动至2026年，目标价上调18%至51.84港元，维持"买 入"评级。公司具备高于同业的盈利增速、多元化布局以及较有吸引力的股息率，在央企同业中优势凸 显。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from CMB International indicates that due to the better-than-expected performance of the higher-valued retail segment of China Resources Vientiane Life (01209), it will contribute a larger share of profits, leading to an increase in the target price by 18% from HKD 43.86 to HKD 51.84, maintaining a "Buy" rating [1] Group 1 - The shopping center segment of China Resources Vientiane Life has become a significant profit pillar, demonstrating operational capabilities that exceed industry peers [1] - The profit contribution from this segment is expected to rise to 60% for the full year, with revenue and gross profit growth rates projected at 18% and 27% respectively [1] - The group has maintained a 100% dividend payout since 2023, with expectations to continue this trend, resulting in a dividend yield of 4.4%, which is attractive among state-owned enterprises [1]

报告表示，华润万象生活购物中心板块已成为绝对利润支柱，持续展现远超同业的运营能力。该行预 计，该板块利润贡献占比将于今年全年度，提升至60%，收入及毛利润增速分别达18%及27%。另外， 集团自2023年起至今维持100%派息，该行预计今年将持续此派息趋势，对应4.4%的股息率，在央企中 具较高吸引力。 智通财经APP获悉，招银国际发布研报称，由于华润万象生活(01209)估值更高的零售板块业务表现优预 期，将贡献更高的盈利占比，故上调目标市盈率倍数至23倍，对应年份滚动至2026年。因此，相应上调 目标价18%，由43.86港元升至51.84港元，维持"买入"评级。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Resources Vientiane Life (1209 HK) [1][9] Core Views - The shopping center segment has become the absolute profit pillar for the company, showing operational capabilities far exceeding peers. Retail sales from January to September increased by 20-25% year-on-year, compared to a 3.0% increase in social retail sales. During the National Day period, retail sales rose by 25%, significantly outperforming the 10.2% increase in key shopping districts in Shanghai [1][9] - The target price has been raised by 18% to HKD 51.84, based on an increase in the target PE multiple by 5% to 23x and rolling the valuation to 2026 [1][3][9] Financial Summary - Sales revenue (in million RMB) is projected to grow from 14,767 in FY23A to 21,172 in FY27E, with year-on-year growth rates of 22.9%, 15.4%, 6.5%, 8.5%, and 7.5% respectively [2][10] - Net profit (in million RMB) is expected to increase from 2,928.7 in FY23A to 5,169.5 in FY27E, with growth rates of 32.8%, 23.9%, 15.3%, 11.8%, and 10.4% [2][10] - The company maintains a 100% dividend payout ratio, with a projected dividend yield of 4.4%, making it attractive among state-owned enterprises [9][10] Business Segment Performance - The shopping center segment's gross profit contribution reached 56.3% in the first half of FY25, with expectations for revenue and gross profit growth rates of 18% and 27% respectively in FY25, driven by a significant increase in gross margin [9] - The property management segment is focusing on third-party expansion, with a target annual contract amount of approximately RMB 1 billion, having completed nearly RMB 800 million by September [9] Market Position - The company is expected to achieve a profit contribution from the shopping center segment of nearly 60% by FY25, reflecting a 5 percentage point increase [1][9] - The current market capitalization is approximately HKD 97.39 billion, with a free float of 27.7% [4][5]

Core Insights - The report highlights the expansion of the top 50 property service companies in China, with a total new contract area of approximately 52.16 million square meters in November 2025, indicating a competitive landscape among leading firms [1] - The overall third-party expansion scale decreased by 24.73% compared to October, with a total of 4,735 million square meters added [1] - The leading sectors for third-party expansion were residential (27.6%), schools (22.9%), and offices (18.5%) [12][15] Group 1: New Contract Areas - The top 50 companies added a total of approximately 52.16 million square meters in new contract areas, with the top 10 companies contributing 30.83 million square meters, accounting for 59.08% of the total [1] - China Resources Vientiane Life had the highest new contract area in November, reaching 4.49 million square meters [1] - The threshold for the top 10 companies' expansion scale slightly decreased from 1.68 million square meters in October to 1.31 million square meters in November [1] Group 2: Project Expansion and Performance - In November, the total new third-party expansion scale was 4,736 million square meters, with 4 companies expanding between 3 million to 5 million square meters, representing 28.3% of the total [12] - The top three companies in terms of new project expansion were China Resources Vientiane Life, Poly Property, and Shimao Services, with expansion areas of 352 million square meters, 340 million square meters, and 336 million square meters, respectively [12][15] - The report indicates a growing trend among property companies to diversify into non-residential sectors, seeking new profit growth points [15] Group 3: City Service Projects - The top city service project in November was the Fuding City Urban Sanitation Integration Project, contracted by Country Garden Services for approximately 139.06 million yuan, with a service period of 3 years [20] - The total contract amount for the top 10 city service projects reached 480 million yuan, accounting for about 93.79% of the overall city service project contracts [20] - The report lists various city service projects across different provinces, highlighting the competitive landscape in urban management services [20] Group 4: Associated Area Analysis - The top five companies in terms of newly contracted associated areas were Poly Property, Wanwu Cloud, China Overseas Property, China Resources Vientiane Life, and China Railway Construction Property, indicating strong area conversion capabilities [23] - The total scale of newly contracted associated areas for the top 50 companies was 19.64 million square meters, showing a significant increase of 70.1% compared to October [23] - Poly Property led with 1.84 million square meters in associated area contracts, demonstrating its strong market position [23]

Core Insights - China Resources Vientiane Life has demonstrated resilience and growth in a challenging market environment since its listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in late 2020, utilizing a unique "commercial management + property management" dual-driven model [1][2][12] - The company has successfully transitioned from a heavy asset reliance to a leading position in light asset management, significantly expanding its commercial footprint from 62 shopping centers at the end of 2020 to 125 by mid-2025 [5][12] - The firm has maintained a strong market position, achieving a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 20% in revenue from 67.79 billion yuan in its first year to 170.43 billion yuan by 2024, while also increasing its core net profit from 8.16 billion yuan to 35.07 billion yuan in the same period [12][13] Business Model and Strategy - The company has established a standardized and replicable management system, a large and loyal brand tenant network, and a strong talent pool, which have been pivotal in its expansion and operational success [5][6] - China Resources Vientiane Life has set a target to expand its third-party shopping center projects by over 50 during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, achieving this goal ahead of schedule [6][12] - The firm is focusing on urban public space operations as a new growth area, aiming to provide comprehensive services across various urban facilities, which will help mitigate risks associated with traditional residential property management [9][11] Financial Performance - The company has achieved a gross profit margin increase from 27% in 2020 to 32.9% in 2024, further rising to 37.1% in the first half of 2025, indicating improved operational efficiency and business structure optimization [12][13] - China Resources Vientiane Life has maintained a stable dividend policy, distributing over 91 billion yuan since its listing, with a payout ratio reaching 100% in 2024 and the first half of 2025 [13][14] Market Position and Recognition - Despite challenges in the real estate sector, China Resources Vientiane Life has remained in the "billion-dollar market cap" club, with a leading price-to-earnings ratio in the industry, reflecting a significant value reassessment by the market [14][19] - Major financial institutions have upgraded their ratings for the company, recognizing its ability to capture emerging brands and the potential for luxury retail recovery [14][19] Sustainability and Future Outlook - The company is committed to sustainable development, setting clear carbon neutrality goals and integrating ESG principles into its business strategy, which enhances customer loyalty and employee engagement [15][17] - Looking ahead, China Resources Vientiane Life aims to deepen its integrated business model and expand its urban space operations, positioning itself as a key player in the evolving market landscape [17][19][20]