Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of HKD 28.00 [8] Core Views - The company has shown resilience in cargo volume within the Asian region despite fluctuating tariff policies since April. The cargo volume is expected to remain stable and improve in April and May [1] - The easing of tariffs between China and the US in mid-May led to a surge in shipping rates for routes to the US due to a mismatch in supply and demand as shippers concentrated their shipments [3] - The company is optimistic about the long-term growth potential driven by regional industrial restructuring, which will enhance the circulation of raw materials, semi-finished products, and finished goods [1][5] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The Southeast Asian market has benefited from the easing of tariffs, with container freight rates showing a month-on-month increase of 6.9% in April and a year-on-year increase of 60.1% [2] - The average container freight rate index for the Asian region increased by 2.3% month-on-month and 24.0% year-on-year in April [2] Shipping Rates and Volume - In May, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) saw a significant month-on-month increase of 18.4%, although it was down 38.7% year-on-year due to a high base from the previous year [3] - Specific routes such as China to the US West Coast and East Coast experienced substantial increases in freight rates, with month-on-month rises of 47.6% and 30.1% respectively [3] Fleet and Capacity - There is a tightening of capacity for small and medium-sized container ships, leading to an increase in charter rates, with a year-on-year rise of 78.9% for 1,000 TEU vessels from January to April 2025 [4] - As of May, new orders for container ships represented only 29.4% of existing capacity, indicating a low order book for smaller vessels [4] Future Outlook - The company anticipates continued high demand and rising freight rates in June due to seasonal peaks in Europe and the US, alongside the benefits from tariff reductions [5] - Long-term, the company is expected to maintain resilience in cargo volume and growth potential, supported by its focus on the Asian market and flexible operations with smaller vessels [5] - Profit forecasts for the company are set at USD 1.09 billion for 2025, with a target price based on a PE ratio of 8.9x for 2025 [5]

证券研究报告 交通运输 | 航运港口 港股|首次覆盖报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 06 月 05 日 证券分析师 孙延 SAC：S1350524050003 sunyan01@huayuanstock.com 刘晓宁 SAC：S1350523120003 liuxiaoning@huayuanstock.com 曾智星 SAC：S1350524120008 zengzhixing@huayuanstock.com 王惠武 SAC：S1350524060001 wanghuiwu@huayuanstock.com 张付哲 zhangfuzhe@huayuanstock.com 市场表现： | 基本数据 | 2025 | 年 | 04 | | 日 | 06 | 月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价（港元） | | | | 25.25 | | | | | 一年内最高/最低（港 | | | 25.80/15.70 | | | | | | 元） | | | | | | | | | 总市值（百万港元） | | | | 68, ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the container shipping sector due to high freight rates and increased demand driven by the recent US-China tariff adjustments [1][3]. Core Insights - The recent US-China trade talks resulted in the cancellation of 91% of retaliatory tariffs, leading to a surge in bilateral trade and a nearly 300% increase in container shipping bookings from China to the US [1][11]. - Freight rates on North American routes have significantly increased, with Shanghai to US West Coast and East Coast rates rising by 31.7% and 22.0% respectively [2][12]. - The report anticipates a short-term surge in container demand due to a stocking wave, which may challenge port logistics and further influence freight rates [3][15]. Summary by Sections Section 1: US-China Tariff Developments - The US and China agreed to suspend 24% of reciprocal tariffs for 90 days, leading to a rapid increase in trade and shipping demand [1][11]. - Container shipping bookings surged from an average of 5,709 TEUs to 21,530 TEUs within a week following the tariff adjustments [1][11]. Section 2: Market Demand and Freight Rates - The demand for shipping services has rebounded sharply, with significant increases in spot booking prices for shipping containers [2][12]. - As of May 16, 2025, the spot rates for shipping from Shanghai to the US West Coast and East Coast reached $3,091 and $4,069 per FEU, reflecting increases of 31.7% and 22.0% respectively [2][12]. Section 3: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in leading container shipping companies such as COSCO Shipping Holdings, which is expected to benefit from rising freight rates on US routes [3][15]. - It also highlights the potential of regional shipping companies in Asia, suggesting that the ongoing trade tensions may sustain high demand in this segment [3][15]. Section 4: Industry Data Tracking - Recent data shows a 4.8% year-on-year increase in domestic air passenger volume, indicating a recovery in the aviation sector [16][20]. - The report notes a 10% increase in the Shanghai Container Freight Index (SCFI) and a 4% increase in Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) rates, reflecting overall positive trends in the shipping industry [36][37].

海丰国际 20250515 摘要 • 海丰国际通过逆周期扩张运力，构建了成本优势，并充分受益于市场周期 上行。公司提高自有资金比例，增强了抗周期能力，目前自有船比例维持 在 85%-90%区间。 • 中美贸易摩擦加速产业向东南亚转移，打破原有物流集群效应，增加国际 贸易运输需求。双子星联盟调整航线模式，由钟摆式转向枢纽式，增加小 型船舶运输需求，利好海丰国际。 • 小型集装箱船市场供给格局优于其他航运市场，灵活性更强。亚洲区域内 70%运力为 3,000TEU 以下小型船，手持订单占比仅 3.6%，老龄化问题 突出，未来供给增速有限。 • 预计海丰国际 2025-2027 年归母净利润分别为 10.48 亿、8.6 亿和 7.9 亿美元，同比增幅分别为 1.3%、-18%和-8%。若业绩预期修复，估值有 望从 5-7 倍回升至 10-15 倍，市值上涨空间可达 40%-110%。 • 市场低估了中国产业转移对支线运输量的积极影响，以及红海航线不确定 性对集运市场的潜在利好。关税变化、同行超预期业绩、淡季不淡、港口 拥堵及红海危机持续等因素可能催化股价上涨。 海丰国际在经营发展方面有哪些特点和优势？ 海丰国际一 ...

Group 1 - The recent US-China Geneva trade negotiations have led to significant progress, with both countries reducing tariff rates, resulting in a rapid response from the global shipping and logistics market [1] - There is a surge in demand for shipping services on US routes, with reports of a "rush for shipments" and "cabin space" as shipping rates have dramatically increased, with East Coast rates nearing $7000 in June [1][2] - Shipping companies have announced substantial rate hikes, with various carriers increasing fees for container shipments to the US, indicating a potential super peak season for shipping [1][2] Group 2 - Following the announcement of a 145% tariff increase by the US on China, there has been a significant withdrawal of shipping capacity from US routes, with a 40% reduction noted, complicating the return of capacity to these routes [2] - The strong demand for inventory replenishment in the US, coupled with a 90-day tariff exemption period, is expected to drive a surge in Chinese exports, with analysts predicting a "red sea moment" for shipping rates [2] - Companies in the shipping and logistics sector, such as COSCO, HMM, and Evergreen, are likely to benefit from the current market dynamics, as shipping rates are expected to remain elevated into the second half of the year [2][3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the shipping industry, particularly focusing on the opportunities in the Asian container shipping market [2]. Core Insights - The Asian shipping market is experiencing a balanced supply and demand, with a projected CAGR of 6.85% for container transport volume from 2001 to 2024, driven by regional economic growth and trade agreements like RCEP [2][14]. - The report highlights the differentiated strategies of major players such as SeaLand, Yang Ming, and Jin Jiang, emphasizing their operational strengths and market positioning [2][3]. Summary by Sections Supply and Demand in the Asian Market - Demand: The Asian route is the second-largest segment in global container shipping, with a projected volume of 65.29 million TEU in 2024, accounting for 30.7% of global container trade [14][16]. - Supply: The growth rate of container ships under 3000 TEU is expected to be lower than the global average, with a forecasted capacity growth of 0.59% in 2025 and a decline of 2.97% in 2026 [19][20]. Comparison of Major Shipping Companies - Capacity: SeaLand leads with a total capacity of 180,000 TEU, followed by Yang Ming with 113,000 TEU and Jin Jiang with 53,000 TEU [3][53]. - Growth Rates: From 2020 to 2024, Jin Jiang's total capacity grew by 102%, Yang Ming by 59%, and SeaLand by 39% [54][59]. - Revenue Structure: SeaLand's revenue distribution in 2024 is 48% from Greater China, 29% from Southeast Asia, and 17% from Japan [4][68]. Financial Performance and Efficiency - Profitability: SeaLand's net profit margin fluctuated between 21% and 47% from 2020 to 2024, while Yang Ming's ranged from 2% to 54% [5][6]. - Asset Turnover: SeaLand's total asset turnover ranged from 0.85 to 1.42, indicating efficient asset utilization compared to its peers [5][6]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the Asian shipping market is a high-quality segment within the industry, with companies like SeaLand and Yang Ming expected to benefit from ongoing trade dynamics and regional demand growth [6][52].

Market Overview - Hong Kong stocks surged today, with all three major indices rising over 2%. The Hang Seng Index increased by 2.3% or 532.38 points, closing at 23640.65 points, with a total turnover of 2228.41 million HKD [1] - The positive sentiment in the market is attributed to the unexpected progress in the first round of trade negotiations between China and the US, which is expected to continue in a constructive direction [1] Blue-Chip Stocks Performance - JD Health (06618) saw a notable increase of 5.13%, closing at 39.95 HKD, contributing 3.56 points to the Hang Seng Index. The company reported Q1 2025 revenue of 16.645 billion RMB, a year-on-year growth of 25.5%, and operating profit of 1.071 billion RMB, up 119.8% [2] - Other blue-chip stocks included China Life (02628) rising by 6.55% to 16.26 HKD, AIA (01299) up 5.15% to 65.3 HKD, while Link REIT (00823) fell by 1.34% to 40.45 HKD [2] Sector Performance - Large technology stocks collectively rose, with Baidu increasing over 4% and Alibaba and JD both rising over 3% [3] - Financial stocks experienced a significant rally, with China Pacific Insurance (02601) up 6.77% to 24.45 HKD, China Life (02628) up 6.55%, and GF Securities (01776) up 6.31% to 11.46 HKD [3] Shipping Sector - The shipping sector performed well, with Pacific Basin Shipping (02343) rising by 7.78% to 1.94 HKD and Seafront International (01308) up 6.51% to 22.9 HKD. The improvement is linked to the easing of tariff conflicts and a seasonal increase in container shipping demand [4][5] Automotive Sector - The automotive sector saw widespread gains, with Li Auto (02015) rising by 4.54% to 112.8 HKD and Xpeng Motors (09868) up 3.87% to 81.8 HKD. The retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 905,000 units in April, a year-on-year increase of 33.9% [6][5] Coal Sector - The coal sector showed positive movement, with China Coal Energy (01898) up 4.91% to 8.55 HKD. Despite recent price declines, analysts suggest that demand may improve as summer approaches [7] Notable Stock Movements - Tencent Music (01698) surged by 12.84% to 61.5 HKD, reporting Q1 2025 revenue of 7.36 billion RMB, with online music service revenue growing by 15.9% [8] - Smoore International (06969) reached a new high, increasing by 10.18% to 17.32 HKD, amid rising sales of new tobacco products [9] - MicroPort Scientific (02252) saw a decline of 8.12% to 16.52 HKD due to a share placement announcement [10] - Samsonite (01910) dropped by 8.58% to 14.06 HKD after reporting a 7.3% decrease in net sales for Q1 2025 [11]

Group 1 - The shipping stocks are experiencing significant gains, with Pacific Shipping up 8.33% to HKD 1.95, and other companies like Seaspan International and Orient Overseas also showing notable increases [1] - Recent high-level trade talks between China and the US have led to substantial progress, with the US canceling 91% of additional tariffs and China reciprocating with the same percentage of counter-tariffs [1] - The upcoming peak season for container shipments on trans-Pacific routes is expected to drive demand, as US supply chain inventory needs are anticipated to increase, leading to a surge in bookings from US buyers for imports from China [1] Group 2 - The surge in cargo volume on the US routes is attributed to a combination of factors, including seasonal increases, urgent shipments due to future concerns, and overall US restocking demands, resulting in a tight supply-demand situation [2] - The pressure on European routes is easing, with marginal recovery in economic demand and expectations of a peak season returning [2]

Group 1 - Company achieved revenue of $639 million in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 43.8% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 21.3% [2] - Container shipping volume reached 795,387 TEU in Q1 2025, up 6.8% year-on-year but down 22.0% quarter-on-quarter [2] - Average freight rate (excluding slot exchange revenue) was $803.5, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 34.7% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.9% [2] Group 2 - The small vessel market is expected to face tighter supply, with a projected growth rate of 1.2% in 2025 and a decline of 2.0% in 2026 for vessels under 3,000 TEU [3] - Concerns exist regarding potential tariff impacts on cargo volume and freight rates, which may lead to some capacity shifting to the Asian market [3] - The demand for small vessels is expected to increase due to U.S. tariff exemptions for vessels under 4,000 TEU and increased transshipment trade through Mexico [3] Group 3 - The trend of industrial transfer is likely to accelerate under U.S. tariff policies, with cargo volume in the Asian region expected to grow by 3.2% in 2025 and 3.0% in 2026 [4] - Trade between China and ASEAN countries, as well as between Japan and Southeast Asian nations, is projected to continue growing, with import and export growth rates of 7.1% and 9.5% respectively in the first quarter of 2025 [4] - The ongoing industrial transfer from China to Southeast Asian countries is anticipated to further boost economic growth in those regions, supporting stable cargo volume growth in Asia [4]

Core Insights - The 2024 Annual Profitability Ranking of Chinese Port and Shipping Listed Companies was released, highlighting the industry's performance amid a complex global economic environment [1] - China's total import and export value reached 43.85 trillion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 5% [1] - The ranking reflects the profitability of companies listed on major stock exchanges in China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan, focusing on port operations, shipping, and shipbuilding [5] Economic Context - The global economic recovery remains uneven, with significant inflation decreases in major economies and increased geopolitical tensions [1] - Domestic economic performance is stable, with a focus on high-quality development and the growth of new productive forces [1] - The number of foreign trade enterprises in China reached nearly 700,000, a new high [1] Trade Performance - In 2024, China's export of electromechanical products was 15.12 trillion yuan, up 8.7% year-on-year, accounting for 59.4% of total exports [2] - Trade with Belt and Road Initiative countries reached 22.07 trillion yuan, a 6.4% increase, marking over 50% of China's total trade for the first time [2] Port and Shipping Industry Performance - National ports handled a cargo throughput of 1.7595 billion tons in 2024, a 3.7% increase, maintaining the world's highest volume [3] - China's shipbuilding industry continues to lead globally, with completion, new orders, and backlog volumes at 48.18 million deadweight tons, 113.05 million deadweight tons, and 208.72 million deadweight tons, respectively [3] Company Rankings - The ranking is based on Return on Equity (ROE) and net profit, with the top companies achieving significant profitability [7][9] - The top three companies by ROE are: 1. Sea Harvest International Holdings Limited - 47.62% 2. Shanghai Huige Environmental Technology Group Co., Ltd. - 45.23% 3. Intercontinental Shipping Group Holdings Limited - 35.35% [7] Financial Overview - A total of 83 companies were ranked, with 77 profitable, representing 92.77% of the total, and an overall net profit of 229.04 billion yuan [10] - The shipping sector had 49 companies, with a total net profit of 165.96 billion yuan, while the port sector had 22 companies with a net profit of 50.20 billion yuan [12][13] - The shipbuilding sector included 12 companies, achieving a net profit of 12.88 billion yuan [14]