供应链去中心化支撑需求、运力结构性短缺利好亚洲支线市场。受益于区域经济发展、RCEP 协定深化 成员国贸易协同及产业链向东南亚、拉美等第三国/地区转移等多重利好，非干线贸易增速表现突出， 亚洲区域内海运贸易需求有望持续增长。此外，集运大小船型运力增速出现结构性分化，大量新造船订 单主要集中在8k+TEU船型，3kTEU 以下小型船舶受制于新船有限与船龄有限，其2026/27 年运力增速 预计仅为+0.5%/-0.7%。公司从2020 年以来，接连订造新船，增强船队竞争优势。公司在2025 年多次下 单新造船，使公司手持订单增至14 艘，总计2.88 万TEU，占公司运营船队的15.3%，保证了公司船队与 业务规模的未来成长性。 公司特别派息凸显红利属性。根据2025 年12 月18 日公告，公司宣派特别股息每股0.70 港元（相当于每 股0.09 美元），继2024 年之后连续第二年特别派息。公司2021 年股息支付率达94.89%后，2022/23 年 保持在71%左右，2024 年在特别分红支持下提升至85.35%。 盈利预测与评级：假设红海绕行持续，预计公司2025-2027 年归母净利润分别为12.0 ...

Group 1: New Consumption - Ruoyuchen (003010.SZ) - The company expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of 176 million to 200 million yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 66.61%-89.33% [2][5] - The significant growth in performance is primarily driven by rapid revenue growth from proprietary brands, high performance in brand management, and effective cost reduction strategies [6][7] - The company has established a competitive advantage in various categories such as health products, maternal and infant care, beauty and personal care, and food and beverages, with plans to continue expanding its proprietary brand portfolio [6][7] Group 2: Transportation - Haifeng International (01308.HK) - The company anticipates a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.2 to 1.23 billion USD for 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of approximately 16%-18.9% [9][12] - The company has built a differentiated advantage through a high-frequency, point-to-point direct shipping network, which supports performance growth amid stable demand for container trade in Asia [9][10] - The expected container volume for 2025 is approximately 3.85 million TEU, with an average revenue per container of about 753.0 USD/TEU, indicating a year-on-year increase of approximately 4.4% [9][10] Group 3: Transportation - Southern Airlines (600029.SH) - The company is expected to have a fleet size of 972 aircraft by the end of 2025, maintaining a high passenger load factor of 85.7%, which is an increase of 1.36 percentage points year-on-year [13][14] - The focus on international routes is expected to drive an 18.5% year-on-year growth in international available seat kilometers (ASK), leading to potential market share expansion [13][14] - The company has shown continuous improvement in operations, with a projected passenger volume of 174 million for 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 5.5% [14][15]

证券研究报告 交通运输 | 航运港口 港股|公司点评报告 hyzqdatemark 2026 年 01 月 29 日 证券分析师 孙延 SAC：S1350524050003 sunyan01@huayuanstock.com 曾智星 SAC：S1350524120008 zengzhixing@huayuanstock.com 王惠武 SAC：S1350524060001 wanghuiwu@huayuanstock.com 张付哲 SAC：S1350525070001 zhangfuzhe@huayuanstock.com 33.00/15.70 风险提示。美国关税政策变化；经济增长不及预期；红海复航；美国对航运港口相 关政策的变化；地缘政治风险。 | 资产负债率（%） | 22.55 | 盈利预测与估值（美元） | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 资料来源：聚源数据 | | | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | | | 营业收入（百万美元） | 2,429 | 3,05 ...

Group 1 - The company, SITC, expects its profit attributable to shareholders for the year ending December 31, 2025, to be between approximately $1.2 billion and $1.23 billion, representing an increase of about 16% to 18.9% compared to the year ending December 31, 2024 [1] - The company reported a container throughput of approximately 3.85 million TEUs, an increase of about 7.8% year-on-year, with an average freight rate of approximately $753 per TEU, up by about 4.4% from the previous year [2] - The increase in profit and volume is primarily attributed to the stable expansion of the Asian market, which has driven container volume growth, and the company's reputation as a quality service provider has led to higher freight rates [2] Group 2 - According to Alphaliner's latest data, SITC ranks 14th among the world's top container shipping companies, with a total capacity of 186,273 TEUs and a fleet of 120 vessels, including 100 owned and 20 chartered [2] - The company has a current order book of 21 vessels, totaling a capacity of 46,056 TEUs [2]

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley sets a target price of HKD 26.4 for SeaFeast International (01308) with a rating of "in line with the market" [1] - SeaFeast International expects a net profit of USD 1.2 billion to USD 1.23 billion for the previous year, representing a year-on-year increase of 16% to 18.9%, slightly exceeding market consensus of USD 1.19 billion [1] - The firm believes that the market's reaction to last year's earnings will be limited despite the performance slightly surpassing expectations [1] Group 2 - Morgan Stanley notes that the resilience of demand within the Asian region presents an upside risk amid supply chain shifts and geopolitical dynamics [1] - The ongoing downturn in the global container shipping industry poses a downside risk [1] - Significant deterioration in China-Japan trade could expose SeaFeast International to risks due to its relatively high exposure to Japanese routes [1]

大摩又认为，在供应链转移与地缘政治动态下，亚洲区域内需求的韧性存在上行风险，而全球货柜航运 业的持续下行周期则构成下行风险。若中日贸易显著恶化，海丰国际对日本航线相对较高的曝险可能带 来风险。 智通财经APP获悉，摩根士丹利发布研报称，予海丰国际(01308)目标价26.4港元，评级为"与大市同 步"。海丰国际发布初步业绩，预计去年净利润为12亿至12.3亿美元(市场共识为11.9亿美元)，同比增 16%至18.9%。认为业绩略微超越市场共识，但预期市场对去年的盈利反应有限。 ...

摩根士丹利发表研报指，海丰国际发布初步业绩，预计去年净利润为12亿至12.3亿美元(市场共识为11.9 亿美元)，按年增16%至18.9%。认为业绩略微超越市场共识，但预期市场对去年的盈利反应有限。大摩 又认为，在供应链转移与地缘政治动态下，亚洲区域内需求的韧性存在上行风险，而全球货柜航运业的 持续下行周期则构成下行风险。若中日贸易显著恶化，海丰国际对日本航线相对较高的曝险可能带来风 险。大摩予海丰国际目标价26.4港元，评级"与大市同步"。 ...

消息面上，1月27日，海丰国际发布公告，预期截至2025年12月31日止年度的本公司股东应占未经审核 利润约为12亿美元至12.3亿美元，较截至2024年12月31日止年度增加约16.0%至18.9%。截至2025年12月 31日止年度，集装箱运量约为3.85百万个标准箱，较上一个年度增加约7.8%，而平均运费(不包括互换 舱位费收入)约为753.0美元/标准箱，较上一个年度增加约4.4%。 海丰国际(01308)盈喜后涨超4%，截至发稿，涨4.15%，报29.14港元，成交额4523.28万港元。 本公司认为，该上升的原因主要归因于亚洲市场稳定扩展带动本集团集装箱运量有所增加及本集团定位 为优质服务供应商致使运费上升。 ...

海丰国际(01308)盈喜后涨超4%，截至发稿，涨4.15%，报29.14港元，成交额4523.28万港元。 本公司认为，该上升的原因主要归因于亚洲市场稳定扩展带动本集团集装箱运量有所增加及本集团定位 为优质服务供应商致使运费上升。 消息面上，1月27日，海丰国际发布公告，预期截至2025年12月31日止年度的本公司股东应占未经审核 利润约为12亿美元至12.3亿美元，较截至2024年12月31日止年度增加约16.0%至18.9%。截至2025年12月 31日止年度，集装箱运量约为3.85百万个标准箱，较上一个年度增加约7.8%，而平均运费(不包括互换 舱位费收入)约为753.0美元/标准箱，较上一个年度增加约4.4%。 ...

格隆汇1月27日丨海丰国际(01308.HK)公告，根据管理层目前所得资料，预期截至2025年12月31日止年 度的公司股东应占未经审核利润介乎约为12亿美元至12.3亿美元，较截至2024年12月31日止年度增加介 乎约16.0%至18.9%。截至2025年12月31日止年度，集装箱运量约为3.85百万个标准箱，较上一个年度增 加约7.8%，而平均运费(不包括互换舱位费收入)约为753.0美元╱标准箱，较上一个年度增加约4.4%。 ...