罗钻辉 A0230523090004 luozh@swsresearch.com 孙冀齐 A0230523110001 sunjq@swsresearch.com 冉兆邦 A0230524090003 ranzb@swsresearch.com 研究支持 金黎丹 A0230123060002 jinld@swsresearch.com 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 证券分析师 行 业 及 产 业 联系人 非银金融 ⚫ 券商：本周申万券商 II 指数收涨 0.82%，跑赢沪深 300 指数 1.07pct。1）"H+A"有望给 A 股引入新资金，券商作为中介机构直接受益。6 月 10 日，中共中央办公厅、国务院办公厅发布 《关于深入推进深圳综合改革试点深化改革创新扩大开放的意见》，首次明确"允许在港上市的 粤港澳大湾区企业回归深交所上市"。根据现行政策，在港上市红筹股回深交所主板上市需要满 足"市值不低于 2000 亿元"或"市值 200 亿元以上，拥有自主研发、国际领先技术，科技创新 能力较强，在同行业竞争中处于相对优势地位"，目前满足 2000 亿市值要求的仅有腾讯控股、 腾讯音乐。我们认为此次《意见 ...

Core Viewpoint - Long-term investors need to deeply interpret the direction of the reshaping world order and weigh the cost-effectiveness of various assets, as two key variables (Deepseek and reciprocal tariffs) have further strengthened the underlying logic of a new investment paradigm [1] Group 1: U.S. Recession Trading - The initiation of recession trading often leads the actual declaration of recession by the NBER by an average of 1-6 months [1] - Typical characteristics of U.S. recession trading include declines in U.S. stocks and industrial metals, a decrease in 10Y U.S. Treasury yields, widening U.S. credit spreads, and defensive stocks outperforming cyclical stocks [1] Group 2: Asset Volatility During Recession Trading - Historical data shows that asset volatility increases during U.S. recession trading phases, with risk assets experiencing a greater increase in volatility compared to safe-haven assets [2] - Specifically, the volatility amplification factor for risk assets (e.g., Nasdaq, Hang Seng Index) is greater than that for safe-haven assets (e.g., gold, U.S. Treasuries, Chinese bonds, A-share dividends) [2] Group 3: All-Weather Strategy Model - Investors need to focus on the asymmetric pricing risks in their portfolios, particularly the underestimation of U.S. recession risks [3] - The ranking of volatility amplification factors for various assets during past U.S. recession trading periods is as follows: Nasdaq > India SENSEX30 > Hang Seng Tech > U.S. Treasuries > Gold > Chinese bonds > Bitcoin > A-share dividends [3] - Adjustments to asset allocation based on corrected volatility factors indicate an increase in weight for Chinese convertible bonds and A-share dividends, while reducing weight for Nasdaq, India SENSEX30, and Hang Seng Tech [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Shenzhen Stock Exchange has decided to terminate the review of Jiangsu Jinzhi Education Information Co., Ltd.'s application for an initial public offering (IPO) on the ChiNext board, following the company's request to withdraw its application [1][3]. Group 1: Company Overview - Jiangsu Jinzhi Education is a provider of information services for higher education institutions, offering software development, SaaS services, operational services, and system integration based on its self-developed smart campus operation support platform [3]. - The company was initially seeking to issue up to 20 million shares and aimed to raise 577 million yuan for various projects, including the construction of a hybrid cloud smart campus platform and an integrated intelligent teaching cloud platform [5][6]. Group 2: Shareholding Structure - As of the signing date of the prospectus, the major shareholders, Guo Chao and Shi Mingjie, directly hold 24.09% and 16.06% of the company's shares, respectively, and together with their indirect holdings through Nanjing Mingde, they control 51.09% of the voting rights [4]. - Guo Chao and Shi Mingjie have signed a concerted action agreement to maintain consistent voting at shareholder meetings, ensuring joint control over the company [4].

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The company, Guangdong New Asia Cable Co., Ltd., has adjusted the amount of funds to be invested in its fundraising projects due to the actual net amount raised being lower than initially disclosed in the prospectus, ensuring that the adjustments do not change the intended use of the funds and will not adversely affect the company's operations or financial status [1][2][3]. Fundraising Basic Situation - The company successfully issued 62 million shares at a price of 7.40 RMB per share, raising a total of approximately 400.71 million RMB after deducting expenses [1][2]. Adjustment of Fund Investment Amount - The total investment for the fundraising projects remains at 439,084,900 RMB, but the adjusted amount to be invested from the raised funds is now 400,712,786.31 RMB, with the shortfall to be covered by the company's own funds or through self-raised funds [2][3]. Impact on the Company - The adjustment is a prudent decision based on the actual funds received and the company's operational needs, aimed at ensuring the smooth implementation of the projects and improving fund utilization efficiency, without harming the interests of the company or its shareholders [2][4]. Review Procedures and Opinions - The board of directors approved the adjustment on June 12, 2025, stating that it aligns with the company's strategic planning and does not harm shareholder interests [3][4]. - The independent directors also supported the adjustment, confirming compliance with relevant regulations and the company's fundraising management system [4][5]. - The supervisory board reviewed and approved the adjustment, affirming that it followed necessary decision-making procedures and would not materially affect the normal use of the raised funds [5]. Sponsor's Verification Opinion - The sponsor, GF Securities, confirmed that the adjustment has been properly reviewed and approved by the board and supervisory board, complies with regulatory requirements, and does not affect the normal fundraising investment plan [5].

公募新规下，基金公司业绩贡献度或受影响。2024年部分券商旗下公募基金的归母净利润对母公司归母 净利润贡献比重同比下滑，贡献比重跌幅前三分别为第一创业、西南证券和长城证券，同比分 别-43.5%、-11.4%、-11.2%。公募新规有望驱动基金公司由重规模转向重回报，同时有望优化公募基金 行业格局。公募降费背景下，头部公募马太效应尽显，有望实现以量补价。券商旗下公募基金的业绩或 将受公募新规影响出现不同程度的变动，利润贡献占比也或将变化。 金融市场:工具化趋势渐显，优化资产配置 券商自营业务中客需类占比提升，非方向性投资发展较快。过去券商自营业务主要以传统的方向性投资 业务为主，但方向性投资受到市场波动的影响较大，券商自营业务的收益较大程度上依赖市场表现。部 分券商通过运用场外期权、期货等工具，来发展非方向投资，从而弱化市场震荡对于自营业务的影响。 截至2024年末，中金公司权益类金融资产中，场外衍生品交易对冲持仓占比为85%。互换便利新工具也 有望为券商提供新的资产配置思路。 投行与PE:"直投+保荐"有望提供协同效应 国联民生证券主要观点如下： 2025H1回顾：市场环境逐步修复，静待政策催化 1)202 ...

赴港上市企业持续增加、外部增量资金不断涌入、二级市场交投热度不减，叠加一系列支持性举措落地 并发挥效果，今年以来港股市场热闹非凡，一、二级市场的欣欣向荣也为包括内地券商在内的中介机构 提供了更为广阔的展业空间。 中国证券报记者在采访中了解到，面对持续升温的企业赴港上市潮，多家券商正不断加大资源投入，加 强内地投行条线与香港分支机构的信息交流和业务协同，在保障项目质量的基础上，全力抢抓市场机 遇。 对内地券商而言，本轮企业赴港上市潮不仅能增加其投行业务收入，在资本市场双向开放的大背景下， 也为其拓展国际化业务提供了重要契机。受访券商人士表示，未来公司将从多维度强化战略布局与业务 深耕，促进香港及境外业务高质量发展。 ● 本报记者胡雨 多管齐下抢抓市场机遇 为了抢抓本轮企业赴港上市潮带来的市场机遇、为赴港上市企业提供专业且高效的服务，不少券商正多 管齐下，力争在这波上市潮中抢占更多"蛋糕"。 "公司在去年伊始便观察到港股业务出现快速复苏迹象，于是提前调配资源，积极参与港股IPO市 场。"国金证券投行业务相关负责人在接受中国证券报记者采访时表示，当下公司灵活调配拥有香港业 务牌照且经验丰富的员工参与上市项目中，这些 ...

在业内人士看来，在IPO节奏阶段性放缓导致券商投行业绩承压的背景下，深耕并购重组市场将改善券 商的经营业绩，提升券商的综合竞争力。 ● 本报记者胡雨 在政策利好加持下，今年以来并购重组市场持续升温，越来越多券商躬身入局，在寻求新的发展机遇同 时，积极发挥其作为金融机构的特色优势，为发展新质生产力保驾护航。 立足优势培育市场竞争力 要迎接好本轮并购重组浪潮带来的发展机遇，如何发挥自身特色优势在市场中谋得一席之地，是摆在每 家券商面前的重要课题。结合对组织架构、区位优势、经营特色等因素的分析，前述受访人士在采访中 向记者透露了其未来进一步深耕并购重组市场的打法。 上述东兴证券投行业务相关负责人告诉记者，今年5月，公司成立了并购重组业务部，下设两个专业业 务团队，构建了高效的组织管理架构；公司还通过建立动态管理机制对项目进度和成员工作成效进行精 细化管控，为业务拓展提供精准的决策支持。作为中国东方资产管理股份有限公司控股的上市券商，东 兴证券还充分发挥其股东资源优势，建立精准的业务对接机制，目前已与中国东方并购重组事业部开展 多次深度的业务交流与合作。 上述广发证券投行业务相关负责人表示，广发证券将依托自身研发能力 ...

Core Points - The announcement details the payment of interest and principal for the short-term corporate bond issued by GF Securities Co., Ltd. on June 16, 2025 [1] - The bond, referred to as "24 Guang D13," has a coupon rate of 1.95% and the total payment per unit (face value of 1,000 yuan) is 1,012.715068 yuan, including tax [2] - The bondholders will receive a net amount of 1,010.172054 yuan after tax deductions for individual and securities investment fund holders, while non-resident enterprises will receive the full amount [2] Bond Details - The bond has a credit rating of A-1 and the company's credit rating is AAA with a stable outlook [1] - The interest payment period is from October 21, 2024, to June 15, 2025 [1] - The payment will be processed through China Clearing Shenzhen Branch, which will distribute the funds to the designated securities firms or institutions [2] Taxation Information - Individual bondholders are subject to a personal income tax rate of 20% on the interest earned [3] - Non-resident enterprises holding the bond are exempt from corporate income tax on the interest earned during the specified period [4] - Other bondholders are responsible for their own tax payments on interest income [5] Contact Information - The announcement provides contact details for inquiries, including addresses and phone numbers for representatives in Guangzhou and Shenzhen [5]

证券代码：524303 证券简称：25 广发 D7 广发证券股份有限公司 2025 年面向专业投资者公开发行短期公司债券（第五期） 发行结果公告 广发证券股份有限公司（以下简称"发行人"）面向专业投资者公开发行面 值余额不超过人民币 300 亿元（含）的短期公司债券已获得中国证券监督管理委 员会"证监许可〔2025〕818 号"文同意注册。根据《广发证券股份有限公司 2025 年面向专业投资者公开发行短期公司债券（第五期）发行公告》，广发证券股份 有限公司 2025 年面向专业投资者公开发行短期公司债券（第五期）（以下简称"本 期债券"）计划发行规模不超过 30 亿元（含），发行价格为每张 100 元，采取网 下面向专业机构投资者询价配售的方式发行。 本期债券发行时间为 2025 年 6 月 11 日至 2025 年 6 月 12 日，最终实际发行 规模为 30 亿元，票面利率为 1.64%，认购倍数为 3.96 倍。 发行人的董事、监事、高级管理人员、持股比例超过 5%的股东及其他关联 方未参与本期债券认购。承销商华泰联合证券有限责任公司、平安证券股份有限 公司、国泰海通证券股份有限公司及其关联方未参与认购 ...

债券代码：148951 债券简称：24 广 D13 广发证券股份有限公司 2024 年面向专业投资者公开发行短期公司债券 （第六期）（品种二）2025 年兑付兑息及摘牌公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证公告的内容真实、准确、完整，没有虚假记载、 误导性陈述或者重大遗漏。 特别提示： 广发证券股份有限公司 2024 年面向专业投资者公开发行短期公司债券（第 六期）（品种二）（债券简称："24 广 D13"，债券代码：148951，以下简称"本 期债券"）将于 2025 年 6 月 16 日支付 2024 年 10 月 21 日至 2025 年 6 月 15 日 期间的利息及本期债券的本金。为确保本次兑付兑息工作的顺利进行，现将有关 事宜公告如下： 一、本期债券基本情况 1、债券名称：广发证券股份有限公司 2024 年面向专业投资者公开发行短期 公司债券（第六期）（品种二） 2、债券简称及代码：本期债券简称为"24 广 D13"，债券代码为"148951"。 3、债券发行批准机关及文号：中国证券监督管理委员会证监许可〔2023〕 2404 号文。 4、发行期限、规模和利率：本期债券发行期限为 238 天，发行规模为 ...