来源：市场资讯 来源：晨明的策略深度思考 本文作者：刘晨明/余可骋 报告摘要 日积跬步：（1）本轮港股资产上涨具备基本面支撑，由于较A股更少的传统经济板块，自2024年下半 年开始，在内外需共同企稳、宏观政策发力托底的背景下，港股盈利已经出现结构性修复迹象，只是阶 段性被外卖补贴战打破。（2）中美战略性关键科技领域中，绝大部分核心公司在港股有上市。高端制 造业、科技的成长正从"单点突破"迈向"多点爆破"。映射至资本市场，港股正从传统的顺经济周期，逐 步转向AI应用、新能源、半导体等代表硬科技的主赛道。恒指新经济相关的权重从17%提升至接近 50%。（3）随着外卖补贴战退坡以及AI驱动的广告及云服务成为新的增长点，恒指2026年业绩增速有 望回升至10.8%，港股上涨可能从流动性驱动转向盈利和流动性共同驱动。 水涨船高：一是港股汇聚的优质企业如停泊其中的巨轮，估值相对较低，坚实的船体（全球竞争力）与 满载的货物（成长潜力）在低水位下尤为突出，二是目前压制港股的主要是流动性/情绪因素（日本息 交易平仓、美联储鹰派降息表述、互联网高新技术税传言、基石投资者解禁、IPO抽水、公募新规 等），市场情绪可能已经调整到位， ...

根据上银基金管理有限公司（以下简称"本公司"）与广发证券股份有限公司(以下简称"广发证券")签署 的销售协议和相关业务准备情况，自2026年1月5日起，广发证券将开始销售本公司旗下部分基金。 一、适用基金范围 客户服务电话：95575 ■ 注：在遵守基金合同、招募说明书及相关业务公告的前提下，销售机构办理各项基金销售业务的具体日 期、时间、流程、业务类型及费率优惠活动（如有）以销售机构的安排和规定为准。 二、投资者可通过以下途径咨询有关详情 1、广发证券股份有限公司 网站：www.gf.com.cn 二〇二六年一月五日 2、上银基金管理有限公司 网站：www.boscam.com.cn 客户服务电话：021-60231999 风险提示：本基金管理人承诺以诚实信用、勤勉尽责的原则管理和运用基金资产，但不保证基金一定盈 利，也不保证最低收益。基金投资有风险，投资者在做出投资决策之前，请认真阅读基金合同、招募说 明书（更新）和基金产品资料概要（更新）等法律文件，充分认识基金的风险收益特征和产品特性，认 真考虑基金存在的各项风险因素，并根据自身的投资目的、投资期限、投资经验、资产状况等因素充分 考虑自身的风险承受能力 ...

Core Viewpoint - In 2026, under the global challenge of debt issues, there are three main ways to address debt: real growth exceeding real interest rates (growth-driven debt reduction), inflation exceeding expectations (inflation-driven debt reduction), and fiscal tightening (fiscal-driven debt reduction). Both AI and gold are expected to benefit from these paths, forming a dual mainline logic for asset performance [1]. Group 1: Market Outlook - The A-share market is expected to maintain a "slow bull" pattern in 2026, driven by a profound change in corporate profit structures. Despite weakness in real estate, infrastructure, consumption, social financing, and PPI, the net asset return on equity (ROE) of non-financial enterprises has stabilized over several quarters [1]. - The profit share of the eight major advanced manufacturing industries has increased to 38%, while the overseas revenue share of companies operating abroad has risen to 20%, with overseas market gross margins exceeding domestic margins by 5 percentage points. These factors are likely to drive the overall ROE of A-shares to recover after stabilization [1]. - Current valuation increases are relatively restrained, with limited overextension. If profits recover, there is still room for valuation improvement. Additionally, the migration of deposits from insurance and high-net-worth individuals will bring incremental capital [1]. Group 2: Investment Direction - The focus should be on industries with constrained supply and clear upward trends, such as the AI industry chain, which has strong capital expenditure demand and is unlikely to see supply release in the short term. Other areas include energy storage and metals, which have undergone capacity clearing [1]. - Tactically, it is recommended to utilize market adjustments to position for the spring rally, prioritizing the aforementioned high-prosperity sectors [1].

销售费新规落地，优化短期赎回费要求 投资银行业与经纪业 [Table_Industry] 关于《基金销售费用管理规定》的点评 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 刘欣琦(分析师) | 021-38676647 | liuxinqi@gtht.com | S0880515050001 | | 王思玥(分析师) | 021-38031024 | wangsiyue@gtht.com | S0880525070022 | 本报告导读： 新规相较征求意见稿，主要变化在于优化场外指数基金、债券基金短赎收费。考虑 了场外指数型基金、债券型基金持有人对流动性的需求，保障了公募产品的竞争力。 投资要点： [Table_Summary] 事件：2025 年 12 月 31 日，证监会发布《公开募集证券投资基金销 售费用管理规定》 [Table_Report] 相关报告 投资银行业与经纪业《投融资再平衡持续，股权 融资逐步回暖》2025.12.22 投资银行业与经纪业《绩效考核迎新规，行业更 重投资者体验》2025.12.09 投资 ...

Core Insights - The top three companies by stockholding ratio in the Hong Kong Stock Connect are China Telecom (71.90%), GCL-Poly Energy (69.96%), and Da Zhong Public Utilities (68.75%) [1][2] - The companies with the largest increase in stockholding over the last five trading days include SMIC (+1.092 billion), China Merchants Bank (+1.052 billion), and Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (+790 million) [1][2] - The companies with the largest decrease in stockholding over the last five trading days include China Mobile (-3.216 billion), Tencent Holdings (-1.107 billion), and the Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (-465 million) [1][2] Stockholding Ratios - China Telecom (00728) holds 99.79 million shares with a stockholding ratio of 71.90% [2] - GCL-Poly Energy (01330) holds 28.3 million shares with a stockholding ratio of 69.96% [2] - Da Zhong Public Utilities (01635) holds 36.7 million shares with a stockholding ratio of 68.75% [2] - Other notable companies in the top 20 include China Shenhua (66.39%) and China Merchants Energy (64.43%) [2] Recent Trading Activity - The top three companies with increased holdings in the last five trading days are: - SMIC (00981): +1.092 billion, +15.28 million shares [2][3] - China Merchants Bank (03968): +1.052 billion, +19.92 million shares [2][3] - Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (00388): +790 million, +1.93 million shares [2][3] - The top three companies with decreased holdings in the last five trading days are: - China Mobile (00941): -3.216 billion, -39.36 million shares [2][3] - Tencent Holdings (00700): -1.107 billion, -1.84 million shares [2][3] - Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (02800): -465 million, -18.01 million shares [2][3]

Group 1 - The article discusses the latest developments in the financial market, highlighting significant trends and shifts in investor sentiment [1] - It emphasizes the impact of recent economic data on market performance, particularly focusing on inflation rates and interest rate adjustments [1] - The analysis includes a review of sector performance, noting which industries are thriving and which are facing challenges due to current economic conditions [1] Group 2 - Key statistics are provided, including percentage changes in stock indices and sector-specific performance metrics [1] - The article outlines potential investment opportunities based on emerging market trends and shifts in consumer behavior [1] - It also addresses the implications of geopolitical events on market stability and investor confidence [1]

Group 1 - Vietnam's pork consumption market is expanding due to population growth and increasing consumer demand, with a projected pork consumption of 3.88 million tons in 2024, ranking fourth globally [1] - The per capita pork consumption in Vietnam is expected to reach 38.3 kg/year in 2024, second only to China, indicating a high demand for pork [1] - Vietnam's pig farming industry is currently the sixth largest in the world, with a pig stock of 25.546 million heads in 2023, trailing only China in Asia [1] Group 2 - The African swine fever (ASF) has significantly impacted Vietnam's pig farming, with the current pig stock still 11.1% lower than pre-ASF levels in 2018, leading to an accelerated exit of small-scale farmers from the market [2] - The Vietnamese pig farming sector is experiencing a shift towards larger-scale operations, driven by policy support and the need for improved biosecurity and breeding systems [2] - The industry is currently in a development phase that presents significant growth opportunities for large-scale enterprises [2] Group 3 - Local and multinational companies are increasingly integrating the pig industry chain in Vietnam, expanding from traditional feed businesses to pig farming, supported by favorable policies for foreign direct investment (FDI) [3] - In 2022, 81 foreign direct investment projects were established in Vietnam's pig farming sector, accounting for over 12% of the total FDI in the country that year [3] - The market is still in a phase of rapid expansion, with leading pig farming companies having substantial room for market share growth [3]

Core Viewpoint - The report from GF Securities projects that China Oriental Education (00667) will achieve adjusted net profits of 800 million, 1.02 billion, and 1.26 billion yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, respectively, indicating a recovery in growth and profitability for the company as a leading player in the industry [1] Group 1: Company Overview - The company has been deeply engaged in the vocational education sector for over 30 years, starting with culinary training in 1988 and now offering training in four major vocational skill areas with seven brands [2] - The company is expected to see a turning point in profitability in 2024, with projected revenues of 4.12 billion and 2.19 billion yuan for 2024 and the first half of 2025, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 3.5% and 10.2% [2] - Adjusted net profits for 2024 and the first half of 2025 are projected to be 530 million and 400 million yuan, respectively, with significant year-on-year increases of 86.6% and 48.4% [2] Group 2: Industry Insights - The vocational skills training industry is characterized by strong employment orientation, with a large potential student base, and the company focuses on training blue-collar talent in the service sector, which maintains a high employment outlook [3] - The competitive landscape of the industry is fragmented, with clear competitive advantages for leading companies in various sub-sectors [3] Group 3: Competitive Advantages - The company creates a positive cycle through continuous research and development, practical-oriented teaching, and diverse professional training systems, resulting in high-quality products [4] - The company has established a solid reputation through deep integration of industry and education, with employment rates for its programs consistently above 90% [4] Group 4: Future Outlook - Following operational optimizations in 2024, brands such as New Oriental and Xinhua are expected to improve, while Ouman Di Meiyu is in a phase of expansion and rapid growth [5] - The high school graduate demographic is anticipated to become a significant source of new students, with a projected increase of 85.4% in new training participants for the first half of 2025 [5] - The establishment of regional centers since 2022 is expected to enhance the company's overall educational capacity and profitability [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that China Oriental Education (00667) is expected to see adjusted net profits of 800 million, 1.02 billion, and 1.26 billion yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, indicating a recovery in growth and profitability, with a target price of 10.16 HKD per share based on a 20x PE ratio for 2026 [1] - The company has been a leader in vocational education for over 30 years, starting with culinary training and expanding into four major training sectors, with a projected revenue of 4.12 billion and 2.19 billion yuan for 2024 and the first half of 2025, respectively, showing year-on-year growth of 3.5% and 10.2% [1] - The adjusted net profit for 2024 and the first half of 2025 is expected to be 530 million and 400 million yuan, reflecting significant year-on-year increases of 86.6% and 48.4% [1] Group 2 - The vocational skills training industry is characterized by strong employment orientation and sustainable demand growth, with a large potential student base, primarily focusing on blue-collar talent development in the service sector [2] - The competitive landscape of the industry is fragmented, with clear differentiation among leading companies in various segments [2] - The company maintains a positive cycle of teaching research, employment services, and operational recruitment, achieving over 90% employment rates for its graduates through continuous research and practical-oriented teaching [3] Group 3 - Future prospects include positive development across various brands and the anticipated impact of regional centers, with New Oriental and Xinhua entering a phase of improvement and structural optimization [4] - The high school graduate demographic is expected to become a significant source of new students, with a projected increase of 8,540 training participants in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 85.4% [4] - The establishment of regional centers since 2022 is expected to enhance the company's overall educational capacity and profitability [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of rational, objective, and in-depth professional research as the foundation for identifying long-term value in the capital market amidst a plethora of information and opinions [1][16]. Group 1: Award Recipients - The "2025 Capital Market Professional Voices" list highlights top research leaders and seasoned investors who provide critical insights and decision-making support through solid research and prudent judgment [1][15]. - Notable individuals on the list include: - Chen Guo, Deputy Director and Chief Strategist at Dongfang Caifu Securities - Huang Yanming, Director of Dongfang Securities Research Institute - Li Chao, Chief Economist at Zheshang Securities - Lin Yuan, Chairman of Lin Yuan Investment - Liu Chenming, Chief Strategy Analyst at GF Securities - Luo Zhiheng, Chief Economist and Director of Research Institute at Yuekai Securities - Wang Qing, Chairman of Chongyang Investment - Wang Sheng, General Manager and Chief Strategy Analyst at Shenwan Hongyuan - Wang Yiping, Founder of Evolutionary Assets - Xun Yugen, Chief Economist and Director of Research Institute at Guosen Securities [2][17]. Group 2: Evaluation Criteria - The selection process adheres to principles of fairness, justice, and transparency, utilizing a comprehensive assessment system that combines quantitative data and professional evaluations [2][13]. - Specific evaluation metrics and their weights include: - Weibo comprehensive data (35%): Assessed based on total posts, effective reading volume, exposure volume, interaction numbers, and interaction volume [2][13]. - Baidu Index (35%): Evaluated based on daily average indices to reflect sustained attention and influence across the internet [2][13]. - Professional recommendations (30%): Involves consulting seasoned institutional investors, brokerage research heads, financial media leaders, and academics to assess the professionalism, depth, and market impact of their views [2][13].