证券研究报告 晨会 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 12 月 21 日 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 投资要点： 资料来源：聚源，华源证券研究所，截至2025年12月19日 华源晨会精粹 20251221 新消费 密集政策提振消费，海南自由贸易港封关运作正式启动——新消费行业周 报：扩大内需是战略之举，消费有关政策频出：中央经济工作会议提出八项明年经 济工作的重点任务，其中第一项重点任务为坚持内需主导，建设强大国内市场。12 月 15 日，《求是》杂志发表文章《扩大内需是战略之举》，文章强调要"牢牢把握 扩大内需这一战略基点"，阐明了扩大内需对发展全局的基础支撑作用。商务部等 9 部门发布《关于扩大服务消费的若干政策措施》，提出五方面 19 条举措。商务部、 中国人民银行、金融监管总局联合发布《关于加强商务和金融协同，更大力度提振 消费的通知》。海南自由贸易港全岛封关运作正式启动，中免发布多重礼遇。根据 中免海南战报，12 月 18 日封关首日中免海南销售额超 2.5 亿元，同比增长 90%。 2025 年 1-11 月美容护肤品牌格局：TOP5 品牌主要由珀莱雅、欧莱雅、韩束、兰 蔻、 ...

主力资金净流出的行业有13个，电子行业主力资金净流出规模居首，全天净流出资金46.40亿元，其次 是医药生物行业，净流出资金为15.79亿元，净流出资金较多的还有银行、国防军工、交通运输等行 业。 商贸零售行业今日上涨3.66%，全天主力资金净流入25.97亿元，该行业所属的个股共97只，今日上涨的 有89只，涨停的有5只；下跌的有6只。以资金流向数据进行统计，该行业资金净流入的个股有59只，其 中，净流入资金超亿元的有6只，净流入资金居首的是中国中免，今日净流入资金9.58亿元，紧随其后 的是永辉超市、东百集团，净流入资金分别为9.57亿元、3.10亿元。商贸零售行业资金净流出个股中， 资金净流出超3000万元的有8只，净流出资金居前的有南京商旅、百大集团、利群股份，净流出资金分 别为1.98亿元、1.50亿元、1.27亿元。（数据宝） 沪指12月19日上涨0.36%，申万所属行业中，今日上涨的有28个，涨幅居前的行业为商贸零售、综合， 涨幅分别为3.66%、2.22%。商贸零售行业位居今日涨幅榜首位。跌幅居前的行业为银行、电子、煤 炭，跌幅分别为0.44%、0.29%、0.29%。 资金面上看，两市主力资 ...

瑞银指，随着消费群体扩大及代购回归，将明后两年海南离岸免税销售同比增长预测从5%及10%上调 至27%及23%，同期推动海南离岸免税销售收入贡献率达到55%及57%。 智通财经APP获悉，高盛发布研报称称，上调中国中免(01880)明后两年每股盈测介乎7%至12%，因该 行认为海南离岸免税销售最坏时期已过，预测中国中免2026至2027年净利润分别同比回升34%及续升 21%，扭转2024及25年跌势。瑞银将中国中免H股目标价从71.2港元升至90.73港元;重申"买入"评级。 在海南离岸免税购物的新政策下，瑞银注意到免税商品种类进一步扩大、客户群体更广泛(跨境旅客及 海南居民)，当中意味着在2021年曾贡献海南离岸免税销售额高达35%的代购可能回归(现时贡献占比仅 5%)，并将明后两年海南离岸免税销售额预测上调至21%、36%，意味着明后两年增长率分别为27%、 23%。预计优化后的离岸免税购物政策将驱动中国中免的海南离岸免税销售增长，但此因素尚未被市场 完全反映。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs has raised its earnings per share forecast for China Duty Free Group (601888) (01880) for the next two years by 7% to 12%, believing that the worst period for Hainan offshore duty-free sales has passed [1] Group 1: Earnings Forecast - Goldman Sachs predicts a net profit rebound for China Duty Free in 2026 and 2027, with year-on-year increases of 34% and 21% respectively, reversing the decline seen in 2024 and 2025 [1] - UBS has increased the target price for China Duty Free's H-shares from HKD 71.2 to HKD 90.73, maintaining a "Buy" rating [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - Under the new policies for offshore duty-free shopping in Hainan, UBS notes an expansion in the variety of duty-free products and a broader customer base, including cross-border travelers and Hainan residents [1] - The contribution of purchasing agents, which accounted for 35% of Hainan's offshore duty-free sales in 2021, is expected to return, increasing from the current contribution of only 5% [1] Group 3: Sales Growth Projections - UBS has revised its forecast for Hainan offshore duty-free sales growth for the next two years from 5% and 10% to 27% and 23% respectively, with sales revenue contribution rates expected to reach 55% and 57% during the same period [1]

证券之星消息，12月19日人民币升值受益板块较上一交易日上涨2.18%，中国中免领涨。当日上证指数 报收于3890.45，上涨0.36%。深证成指报收于13140.22，上涨0.66%。人民币升值受益板块个股涨跌见 下表： 以上内容为证券之星据公开信息整理，由AI算法生成（网信算备310104345710301240019号），不构成 投资建议。 从资金流向上来看，当日人民币升值受益板块主力资金净流入9.45亿元，游资资金净流出6.85亿元，散 户资金净流出2.59亿元。人民币升值受益板块个股资金流向见下表： ...

Market Overview - US inflation slowdown supports interest rate cut expectations, while the Bank of Japan raised rates by 25 basis points, leading to a rise in Hong Kong's three major indices. The Hang Seng Index increased by 0.75% to 25,690.53 points, with a total turnover of HKD 221.186 billion. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index rose by 0.68%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index increased by 1.12% [1] Blue Chip Performance - Shenzhou International (02313) led the decline among blue chips, falling by 3.18% to HKD 60.95, with a turnover of HKD 490 million. Despite exceeding revenue and profit expectations, its net profit dropped by 32% year-on-year due to declining profit margins and ongoing pressures in direct sales [2] - Other blue chips included WuXi Biologics (02269), which rose by 4.4%, and Li Auto-W (02015), which increased by 3.81% [2] Sector Highlights - Large tech stocks mostly rose, with Tencent, Kuaishou, and Meituan gaining over 1%. The L3-level autonomous driving sector saw significant activity, with stocks like Xiaopeng Motors rising over 7% [3] - The pharmaceutical sector rebounded significantly, with companies like Kelun Pharmaceutical (06821) rising by 10.42% and WuXi Biologics (02269) increasing by 4.4% [4] - Lithium stocks also saw gains, with Ganfeng Lithium (01772) up by 1.87% and Tianqi Lithium (09696) rising by 1.72% [4] New Listings - New stocks showed a clear divergence, with Zhihui Mining (02546) soaring by 90.69% to HKD 8.6, while Xidi Intelligent Driving (03881) fell by 13.69% to HKD 227 [7] Company Developments - CIMC Group (02039) saw a strong performance, rising by 15.47% to HKD 8.88 after announcing a buyback plan for H-shares [8] - Changfei Optical Fiber (06869) surged by 12.01% to HKD 51.75, driven by signs of recovery in the optical fiber market [9] - China Duty Free Group (01880) saw its A and H shares rise by 6.88% to HKD 70.7, with expectations of increased sales due to optimized offshore duty-free shopping policies [10] - China Tobacco Hong Kong (06055) rose by 6.68% to HKD 34.48, supported by new regulations aimed at strengthening electronic cigarette oversight [11]

Core Viewpoint - The US CPI annual rate decline has led to a rally in US stocks, boosting risk market sentiment, which positively impacted the Hong Kong stock market with significant gains in major indices [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index rose by 0.75%, while the National Enterprises Index and the Hang Seng Technology Index increased by 0.68% and 1.12%, respectively [1] - Major technology stocks such as Tencent, Kuaishou, NetEase, Meituan, and Baidu all saw gains exceeding 1% [1] Group 2: Sector Performance - Pharmaceutical stocks were notably active, with expectations of continued growth in innovative drugs through 2026, leading to significant increases in related stocks [1] - The gambling sector experienced substantial gains, with MGM China leading the charge with a 6.6% increase [1] - The official launch of the Hainan island closure led to a nearly 7% rise in China Duty Free Group, boosting the duty-free concept stocks [1] - AI-driven demand for fiber optic cables resulted in a 12% surge in Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable, positively affecting the optical communication sector [1] Group 3: Other Sector Movements - The automotive sector saw a rebound after a period of decline, while wind power, vocational education, photovoltaic, insurance, and Apple-related stocks all experienced gains [1] - Conversely, heavy machinery stocks faced declines, with China National Heavy Duty Truck falling over 6%, and gold stocks generally performed weakly due to lower gold prices [1] - Other sectors such as sports goods, ports and shipping, and oil stocks showed mixed performance, with some remaining sluggish [1]

Market Overview - The A-share market saw all three major indices rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.36% to 3890.45 points, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.66%, and the ChiNext Index up 0.49% [1] - The total market turnover reached 173.92 billion yuan, an increase of 62.5 billion yuan from the previous day, with over 4400 stocks rising [1] Sector Performance - The Hainan Free Trade Zone sector surged, with stocks like Hainan Haiyao and Hainan Airlines hitting the daily limit [2][4] - The retail, dairy, and food sectors also saw gains, with companies such as HeBai Group and Shanghai Jiubai reaching their daily limit [2][5] - The controllable nuclear fusion sector was active, with stocks like Liyuan Technology and Wangzi New Materials hitting the daily limit [2][7] - The semiconductor sector experienced a downturn, with stocks like Demingli and Jiangbolong dropping over 5% [2][3] Notable Stocks - Hainan RuiZe, Hainan Haiyao, and Hainan Airlines all saw significant increases, with Hainan RuiZe up 10.08% and Hainan Haiyao up 10.03% [5] - The retail sector had notable performers, including Debi Group and HeBai Group, both reaching their daily limit [7] - In the controllable nuclear fusion sector, Wangzi New Materials and Sichuan Electronics also saw gains of around 10% [9] Economic Indicators - The U.S. Labor Statistics Bureau reported that the November CPI rose 2.7% year-on-year, lower than the expected 3.1%, indicating easing inflation pressures [11] - The U.S. National Economic Council Director stated that the Federal Reserve still has significant room for interest rate cuts [11] Future Outlook - Huazhong Securities maintains a view of continued high volatility in the market, awaiting clearer signals for upward movement [18]

机构表示，政策红利下，海南有望成为产业迁移的热土，高端制造、航空物流、数字经济等产业或将在 海南集聚，形成新的经济增长点。同时，海南通过放宽免签政策、优化旅游环境等措施，有效拉动境外 消费，提升国际旅游消费中心地位。 消息面上，12月18日，海南自由贸易港正式启动全岛封关。即日起，海南全岛8个对外开放口岸及10 个"二线口岸"监管设施悉数启用，标志着3万多平方公里的海南岛正式成为海关监管特殊区域。 海南自贸概念19日盘中强势上扬，截至发稿，康芝药业、神农种业涨超10%，海南海药、海汽集团、海 南发展等均涨停，中国中免涨近9%。 ...

| 代码 | 名称 | 涨幅 % v | 现价 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 603069 | 海汽集团 | +10.00% | 23.86 | | 600693 | 东自集团 | +9.99% | 18.93 | | 002163 | 海南发展 | +9.98% | 14.54 | | 601888 | 中国中免 | +9.61% | 83.85 | | 600515 | 海南机场 | +8.54% | 4.83 | | 000796 | 凯撒旅业 | +7.06% | 6.52 | | 000501 | 武商集团 | +5.27% | 10.59 | | 600712 | 南宁直货 | +5.02% | 7.11 | | 600859 | 王府井 | +4.23% | 15.53 | | 002187 | 广百股份 | +4.30% | 8.25 | | 002277 | 友阿股份 | +3.84% | 7.57 | | 000759 | 中百集团 | +3.65% | 8.23 | | 002251 | 步步高 | +3.66% | 5.95 | | 600185 | 珠免 ...