4 月 29 日晚，中国中免正式公布了 2025 年 1 季度财报。由于不久前海豚投研刚详细点评过年度业绩，且 A 股季报披露的信息相当有限，本次就仅做一个简要的 快评： 1、最差时间已过？收入下滑趋于收窄 ：25 年一季度公司总收入 167.5 亿元，同比跌幅明显收窄到 11% 。虽然尚未完全扭转收入下滑的趋势，但相比之前 3 个季 度 20% 上下的收入跌幅，但 出现了初步的企稳迹象 ，最差的时间可能已经过去。 结合整体离岛免税行业的数据看，在海南旅游旺季、也是对免税行业最重要的 1 季度，海南岛接待游客数增长已同比回正到 6%。但 离岛免税购物人次和消费件数 仍同比分别下降了 28% 和 26%， 可见 "只看不买"、游客到消费者的转化率仍然偏低。 所幸 离岛免税客单价同比显著增长 19.5% 到 1,153 元， 在 持续的免税品销售结构逐渐向高价商品倾斜 的帮助下，虽然销售量仍比较萎靡， 本季离岛免税的销售 额同比跌幅已收窄到 11% 。相比先前 3 个季度 40% 上下的同比跌幅也是显著好转，同样呈现出最差情况已过的信号。 2、毛利率跌幅同样企稳： 伴随着营收跌幅的缩窄，中免在去年四季度呈现的重要 ...

Performance Summary - Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (01398.HK) reported Q1 revenue of 204.688 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.61% year-on-year, and a net profit of 84.156 billion yuan, down 3.99% [3] - China Construction Bank (00939.HK) had Q1 operating income of 185.99 billion yuan, down 4.76% year-on-year, with a net profit of 83.351 billion yuan, also down 3.99% [3] - Agricultural Bank of China (01288.HK) achieved Q1 revenue of 186.735 billion yuan, an increase of 0.32% year-on-year, and a net profit of 71.931 billion yuan, up 2.2% [3] - Bank of China (03988.HK) reported Q1 revenue of 164.911 billion yuan, an increase of 2.41% year-on-year, but a net profit of 58.644 billion yuan, down 2.22% [3] - Postal Savings Bank of China (01658.HK) had Q1 revenue of 89.406 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.1%, and a net profit of 25.246 billion yuan, down 2.62% [3] - China Merchants Bank (03968.HK) reported Q1 revenue of 83.731 billion yuan, down 3.11% year-on-year, with a net profit of 37.286 billion yuan, down 2.08% [3] - Bank of Communications (03328.HK) had Q1 net operating income of 66.44 billion yuan, down 1.13%, but a net profit of 25.372 billion yuan, up 1.54% [3] - HSBC Holdings (00005.HK) reported Q1 revenue of 17.649 billion USD, down 14.95%, and a post-tax profit of 7.57 billion USD, down 30.15% [3] - China People's Insurance Group (01339.HK) achieved Q1 revenue of 156.589 billion yuan, up 12.8%, and a net profit of 12.849 billion yuan, up 43.4% [3] - China Life Insurance (02628.HK) reported Q1 revenue of 110.177 billion yuan, down 8.9%, but a net profit of 28.802 billion yuan, up 39.5% [3] - New China Life Insurance (01336.HK) had Q1 revenue of 33.402 billion yuan, up 26.1%, and a net profit of 5.882 billion yuan, up 19% [3] - China National Petroleum Corporation (00857.HK) reported Q1 revenue of 753.108 billion yuan, down 7.3%, but a net profit of 46.809 billion yuan, up 2.3% [3] - CNOOC (00883.HK) had Q1 revenue of 106.854 billion yuan, down 4.1%, and a net profit of 36.563 billion yuan, down 7.9% [3] - Huadian International Power (01071.HK) reported Q1 revenue of 26.577 billion yuan, down 14.14%, but a net profit of 1.93 billion yuan, up 3.66% [3] - China International Marine Containers (01880.HK) had Q1 revenue of 16.746 billion yuan, down 10.96%, and a net profit of 1.938 billion yuan, down 15.98% [3] - Air China (00753.HK) reported Q1 revenue of 40.023 billion yuan, down 0.11%, with a net loss of 2.044 billion yuan, an increase of 22.07% [3] - CITIC Securities (06030.HK) achieved Q1 revenue of 17.761 billion yuan, up 29.13%, and a net profit of 6.545 billion yuan, up 32% [3] - China Galaxy Securities (06881.HK) reported Q1 revenue of approximately 7.558 billion yuan, up 4.77%, and a net profit of approximately 3.016 billion yuan, up 84.86% [3] - CITIC Construction Investment Securities (06066.HK) had Q1 operating income of 4.919 billion yuan, up 14.54%, and a net profit of 1.843 billion yuan, up 50.07% [3] - Huatai Securities (06886.HK) reported Q1 revenue of approximately 8.232 billion yuan, up 34.83%, and a net profit of approximately 3.642 billion yuan, up 58.97% [3] - China Railway Construction (01186.HK) had Q1 revenue of 256.762 billion yuan, down 6.61%, and a net profit of 5.151 billion yuan, down 14.51% [3] - China Energy Engineering (03996.HK) reported Q1 revenue of 100.371 billion yuan, up 3.05%, and a net profit of 1.612 billion yuan, up 8.83% [3] - Times Electric (03898.HK) achieved Q1 revenue of 4.537 billion yuan, up 14.81%, and a net profit of 631 million yuan, up 13.42% [3] - Midea Group (00300.HK) reported Q1 revenue of 127.839 billion yuan, up 20.49%, and a net profit of 12.422 billion yuan, up 38.02% [3] - WH Group (00288.HK) had Q1 revenue of 6.554 billion USD, up 6.0%, and a profit of 364 million USD, up 20.9% [3] - Suncity Group (00880.HK) reported Q1 total revenue of 7.48 billion HKD, up 8.1%, and a net profit of 31 million HKD, turning profitable [3] - COSCO Shipping Ports (01199.HK) had Q1 revenue of 3.82 billion USD, up 14.7%, and a net profit of 839 million USD, up 33.5% [3] - Flat Glass Group (06865.HK) reported Q1 revenue of 4.079 billion yuan, down 28.76%, and a net profit of 106 million yuan, down 86.03% [3] - Zoomlion Heavy Industry (01157.HK) achieved Q1 revenue of 12.117 billion yuan, up 2.92%, and a net profit of 1.41 billion yuan, up 53.98% [3] - Ganfeng Lithium (01772.HK) reported Q1 revenue of approximately 3.772 billion yuan, down 25.43%, with a net loss of approximately 356 million yuan, narrowing by 18.93% [3] - Qingdao Port (06198.HK) had Q1 revenue of 4.807 billion yuan, up 8.51%, and a net profit of 1.402 billion yuan, up 6.51% [3] - China Shipbuilding Defense (00317.HK) reported Q1 revenue of approximately 3.641 billion yuan, up 29.73%, and a net profit of approximately 184 million yuan, up about 11 times [3] - Baiyunshan Pharmaceutical (00874.HK) had Q1 revenue of 22.473 billion yuan, down 2.06%, and a net profit of 1.821 billion yuan, down 6.99% [3] Investment Activities - New China Life Insurance (01336.HK) plans to invest no more than 10 billion yuan to subscribe to a private fund [4] - China Life Insurance (02628.HK) intends to invest 2 billion yuan to establish a partnership [4] Contract Signing - China Metallurgical Group (01618.HK) reported a new contract signing amount of 230.66 billion yuan in Q1, a decrease of 27.2% year-on-year, with overseas contracts amounting to 12.04 billion yuan, down 35.7% [5] Energy Production - Xin Tian Green Energy (00956.HK) completed power generation of 4.5442 million MWh in Q1, an increase of 10.37% year-on-year [6] - China Power (02380.HK) reported total electricity sales of 30.7477 million MWh in the first three months, up 2.59% year-on-year, with March sales of 10.9617 million MWh, up 3.95% [6] - Qingdao Port (06198.HK) achieved a total cargo throughput of 177 million tons in the first three months, up 2.9% year-on-year [6] Licensing Agreement - Fuhong Hanlin (02696.HK) entered into a licensing agreement with Sandoz AG for the commercialization of HLX13 in specified regions [6] Privatization Offer - Dingsheng Creation (00113.HK) received a privatization offer at a premium of approximately 50.63%, with a maximum cash consideration of about 1.0986 billion HKD [7] Share Buybacks - AIA Group (01299.HK) repurchased shares for 342.6 million HKD, buying back 6.2592 million shares at prices between 54.25 and 55.35 HKD [8] - J&T Express-W (01519.HK) repurchased shares for 9.2485 million HKD, buying back 1.54 million shares at prices between 5.98 and 6.03 HKD [8]

Core Insights - The global duty-free market experienced a slowdown last year, failing to return to pre-pandemic levels, with Hainan's offshore duty-free market also facing challenges due to various factors [1][2] Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company's operating income was RMB 16.75 billion, a year-on-year decline of 10.96% compared to RMB 18.81 billion in the same period last year [1][2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 1.94 billion, down 15.98% from RMB 2.31 billion year-on-year [1][2] - The net cash flow from operating activities was RMB 4.80 billion, a decrease of 9.52% from RMB 5.30 billion in the previous year [1][2][5] Cost and Expense Management - The company's gross margin showed slight pressure, with operating costs decreasing by approximately 10.51%, which was slightly lower than the revenue decline [2] - Sales expenses were RMB 2.20 billion, down about 9.0% year-on-year, while management expenses were RMB 423 million, down about 11.0% [2] Asset and Equity Position - As of March 31, 2025, the total assets of the company reached RMB 80.46 billion, an increase of 5.51% from the beginning of the year, while equity attributable to shareholders was RMB 56.97 billion, up 3.40% [2] Inventory Management - The company's inventory balance at the end of the reporting period was RMB 15.75 billion, a decrease of approximately 9.21% from RMB 17.35 billion at the end of 2024 [3]

Financial Performance - The group's operating revenue for the first quarter of 2025 was RMB 16,746,050,116.23, a decrease of 10.96% compared to RMB 18,807,168,696.39 in the same period last year[5] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 1,937,854,243.40, down 15.98% from RMB 2,306,454,931.34 year-on-year[5] - Basic and diluted earnings per share were both RMB 0.9367, reflecting a decline of 15.98% from RMB 1.1148[5] - Total revenue for Q1 2025 was RMB 16,746,050,116.23, a decrease of 10.9% compared to RMB 18,807,168,696.39 in Q1 2024[15] - In Q1 2025, the operating profit was RMB 2,518,777,915.07, a decrease of 13.4% compared to RMB 2,908,342,158.40 in Q1 2024[16] - The net profit for Q1 2025 was RMB 2,055,785,045.68, down 15.6% from RMB 2,435,203,776.12 in Q1 2024[16] - Total comprehensive income for Q1 2025 was RMB 1,989,279,773.44, a decline of 18.6% from RMB 2,444,902,061.57 in Q1 2024[17] - Basic and diluted earnings per share for Q1 2025 were both RMB 0.9367, compared to RMB 1.1148 in Q1 2024, reflecting a decrease of 16%[17] Cash Flow - The net cash flow from operating activities decreased by 9.52%, amounting to RMB 4,796,979,888.31 compared to RMB 5,301,855,586.86 in the previous year[5] - Cash flow from operating activities in Q1 2025 was RMB 4,796,979,888.31, down 9.5% from RMB 5,301,855,586.86 in Q1 2024[18] - Cash inflow from operating activities totaled RMB 17,533,010,301.60, a decrease of 10% from RMB 19,479,675,572.83 in the previous year[18] - Cash outflow from operating activities was RMB 12,736,030,413.29, down 10.2% from RMB 14,177,819,985.97 in Q1 2024[18] - The net cash flow from investing activities was -RMB 257,075,174.83 in Q1 2025, an improvement from -RMB 418,523,186.44 in Q1 2024[19] - The net cash flow from financing activities was RMB 419,409,247.12 in Q1 2025, compared to -RMB 256,125,481.32 in Q1 2024, indicating a positive shift[19] - The ending cash and cash equivalents balance as of March 31, 2025, was RMB 39,645,949,676.26, an increase from RMB 36,299,634,567.48 at the end of Q1 2024[20] Assets and Liabilities - Total assets at the end of the reporting period were RMB 80,462,334,902.91, an increase of 5.51% from RMB 76,260,373,740.60 at the end of the previous year[5] - Total liabilities increased to RMB 17,542,386,009.83 as of March 31, 2025, up from RMB 15,312,036,850.03 as of December 31, 2024, reflecting a growth of 14.5%[14] - Non-current assets totaled RMB 20,687,437,920.30 as of March 31, 2025, an increase of 1.9% from RMB 20,299,935,210.56 as of December 31, 2024[12] - Long-term borrowings rose to RMB 3,233,561,026.15 as of March 31, 2025, up from RMB 2,567,047,228.16 as of December 31, 2024, marking a 26.0% increase[14] Shareholder Information - Shareholders' equity attributable to the parent company increased by 3.40% to RMB 56,967,607,780.59 from RMB 55,096,705,562.22[5] - The total number of ordinary shareholders was 302,747 as of the end of the reporting period[7] - The largest shareholder, China Tourism Group Co., Ltd., holds 50.30% of the shares, totaling 1,040,642,690 shares[8] Inventory and Expenses - The group reported a decrease in inventory, which stood at RMB 15,751,001,779.30, down from RMB 17,348,382,658.40[11] - Total operating costs for Q1 2025 were RMB 14,080,625,510.04, down 10.7% from RMB 15,772,875,379.76 in Q1 2024[15] - The company reported a decrease in research and development expenses to RMB 12,165,946.01 in Q1 2025 from RMB 355,002.40 in Q1 2024, reflecting a significant increase in investment in innovation[15] Government Subsidies - The company received government subsidies amounting to RMB 3,224,834.44, which are closely related to its normal business operations[6] Deferred Tax Assets - Deferred tax assets decreased to RMB 1,078,353,695.92 as of March 31, 2025, from RMB 1,204,425,069.30 as of December 31, 2024, a decline of 10.5%[12]

Group 1 - The recent policy changes regarding the departure tax refund system have positively impacted the stock prices of related companies, with notable increases in A-share and Hong Kong-listed companies [2][3] - The new policy, issued by multiple government departments, aims to enhance the departure tax refund experience by lowering the minimum refund threshold and increasing the cash refund limit, among other measures [4][5] - The policy changes are expected to significantly boost inbound tourism and consumption, with a projected 1.3 billion inbound tourists in 2024, reflecting a growth of over 60% year-on-year [5][6] Group 2 - Companies involved in the departure tax refund business have diversified, including direct operators like China Duty Free Group and Wangfujing, as well as logistics and technology providers like Lakala and SF Express [6] - The optimization of the departure tax refund policy is anticipated to drive growth in various sectors, including retail, tourism, and dining, benefiting companies that cater to inbound tourists [6][7] - Research indicates that the optimized departure tax refund policy will favor the retail sector, particularly department stores, and related industries such as hotels and restaurants, enhancing the overall consumer market [7]

Group 1 - The tourism market is experiencing a significant increase in activity as the "May Day" holiday approaches, with online hotel and flight searches rising sharply, indicating a peak in bookings [1][2] - Domestic travel bookings for the "May Day" holiday have more than doubled compared to the same period last year, with self-driving tours, free travel, and group tours showing particularly high growth [1] - The "May Day" holiday is characterized by three main trends: rapid growth in long-distance travel, a two-way increase in cross-border travel, and a resurgence in county-level tourism, contributing to structural growth in the tourism market [1][3] Group 2 - Ctrip's report indicates that the holiday travel consumption is marked by explosive growth in long-distance travel and a significant increase in inbound travel orders, which surged by 173% year-on-year [1][3] - The proportion of cross-city accommodation orders has exceeded 80%, with deep travel users planning to stay for two days or more expected to reach 20% [3] - Popular domestic destinations include traditional cities like Beijing and Shanghai, while emerging destinations such as Taiyuan and Yining are also seeing significant growth in hotel bookings [3][4] Group 3 - The overall transaction volume (GMV) for travel services has increased by approximately 65% year-on-year, with product diversity growing by 55.25% [3] - The "May Day" holiday is expected to reach a historical peak in travel heat, with the travel peak anticipated to occur in the first two days of the holiday [4] - The Ministry of Commerce and other departments have announced policies to optimize the outbound tax refund system, which is expected to boost inbound tourism and shopping [4][5] Group 4 - Companies like Ctrip are expected to benefit from the growing demand for travel, as high-level consumption continues to expand [6] - Huazhu Group's adjusted EBITDA for Q4 2024 is projected to grow by 10%, with an upward revision of EBITDA forecasts for 2025-2026 [6] - China Duty Free Group is expected to see revenue growth driven by the recovery of port traffic and operational optimizations, with new store policies creating growth opportunities [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for China Tourism Group Duty Free is Equal-weight [8] Core Insights - Hainan's offline duty-free sales showed a year-over-year decline of 5% in March 2025, which is an improvement from a 13% decline in the first two months of 2025. The average daily sales were RMB 94 million [4][11] - The daily shopper count decreased by 26% year-over-year to 17,700, while spending per shopper increased by 28% to RMB 6,500. The growth in average spending per shopper may be attributed to a rise in electronic product sales, although this may not significantly impact margins [4][11] - The macroeconomic outlook remains uncertain, particularly with potential tariff escalations expected to impact the second half of 2025. The performance of Hainan's duty-free market is closely tied to middle-class spending [2][11] - The Hainan government is anticipated to release details regarding the free-trade-zone policy later this year, which could affect duty-free operators [3] Summary by Sections Sales Trends - In March 2025, Hainan's offline duty-free sales were RMB 94 million per day, reflecting a 5% year-over-year decline, which is an improvement from the 13% decline observed in the first two months of 2025. Daily sales were 35% lower than in the first two months of 2025 and 25% lower than the pre-COVID seasonality of March 2015-2019 [4][11] - Assuming that the sales trends from April to December 2025 follow pre-COVID seasonality, the year-over-year decline in sales may remain in the low to mid-single digits for the second and third quarters of 2025. However, a lower year-over-year comparison base in the fourth quarter of 2025 may lead to positive sales growth for the full year [11] Economic Factors - The report highlights that the macroeconomic conditions are critical for Hainan's duty-free market, which is more sensitive to middle-class spending. The uncertainty in the macro outlook and potential tariff impacts are significant considerations for future performance [2][11] - The anticipated free-trade-zone policy from the Hainan government is expected to be released later this year, which could have implications for duty-free operators [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from optimized duty-free policies at ports and anticipates growth in city duty-free sales [1] - The company has experienced a significant decline in revenue and net profit in 2024, with a revenue of 56.47 billion yuan, down 16.38% year-on-year, and a net profit of 4.27 billion yuan, down 36.44% year-on-year [1][5] - The company is focusing on enhancing its online, store, and supply chain capabilities, which are expected to contribute to long-term growth [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a total revenue of 56.47 billion yuan, with duty-free and taxable goods generating 38.67 billion yuan and 17.10 billion yuan respectively, showing a year-on-year change of -12.58% and -23.49% [1] - The company’s gross margin in Q4 2024 decreased by 3.50 percentage points to 28.54%, attributed to declining sales and increased promotional efforts [2] - The total number of tourists received in Hainan in 2024 was 97.21 million, an increase of 8.0% year-on-year, while the duty-free shopping amount decreased by 29.3% to 30.94 billion yuan [1] Market Position and Strategy - The company has increased its market share in Hainan's duty-free sector by 2 percentage points in 2024, introducing over 150 new brands and enhancing the "first store economy" [3] - The company successfully secured operating rights for 10 airport and port duty-free stores, benefiting from the expansion of visa-free countries and the increase in international flights [3] - The company is actively pursuing the opening of city duty-free stores, with agreements signed in major cities like Beijing and Shanghai [3] Future Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 58.03 billion yuan, 63.55 billion yuan, and 68.73 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 4.50 billion yuan, 4.93 billion yuan, and 5.28 billion yuan [4][5] - The expected EPS for 2025, 2026, and 2027 is 2.18 yuan, 2.38 yuan, and 2.55 yuan respectively, with P/E ratios of 28.9, 26.4, and 24.7 [4][5]

Core Viewpoint - The phenomenon of "ice and fire" is evident in China Duty Free Group (China Duty Free), where a new tax refund policy boosts stock prices despite ongoing declines in company performance and valuation [1][3]. Group 1: Policy Impact - The State Taxation Administration announced the nationwide implementation of the "immediate purchase and refund" tax refund policy, which simplifies the refund process and stimulates inbound tourism potential [1][7]. - The new policy allows foreign tourists to experience tax refunds more directly, potentially increasing their willingness to spend [8]. - Historical data from Japan indicates that similar tax refund policies significantly enhance inbound tourist spending, suggesting a positive outlook for the Chinese market [7]. Group 2: Company Performance - In 2024, China Duty Free is projected to see a revenue decline of 16.38% to 56.474 billion yuan and a net profit drop of 36.44% to 4.267 billion yuan, indicating significant performance pressure [3][4]. - The company's sales from duty-free goods decreased by 12.58% to approximately 38.666 billion yuan, while taxable goods sales fell by 23.49% to about 17.095 billion yuan, reflecting a contraction in online business due to competition [3][4]. - The Hainan region, a core market for the company, experienced a revenue decline of 27.13%, significantly impacting overall performance [3][4]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - Despite an increase in market share in Hainan, the overall market contraction means that this gain did not translate into revenue growth [4]. - The competitive landscape has intensified with the opening of new duty-free stores, reducing the company's monopoly advantage [4][10]. - The company's profit margins are under pressure due to increased discounting and rising operational costs, with a notable 76.9% drop in net profit in the fourth quarter [5][6]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The recovery of the Hainan market is expected to rely on policy stimuli, such as increased tax refund limits, and will face challenges from international competition post-border closure [6]. - The overall trend of policy support and consumer recovery suggests a potential for sustained recovery in the duty-free market [10]. - China Duty Free holds an 81.74% market share in the domestic duty-free market, positioning it well to benefit from the anticipated growth in inbound tourism [8][10].

香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告的內容概不負責，對其準確性 或完整性亦不發表任何聲明，並明確表示，概不對因本公告全部或任何部分內容而產生或因依 賴該等內容而引致的任何損失承擔任何責任。 China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited 中 國 旅 遊 集 團 中 免 股 份 有 限 公 司 中國旅遊集團中免股份有限公司（「本公司」）董事會（「董事會」）宣佈，將於 2025 年 4月 29日（星期二）舉行董事會會議，藉以（其中包括）審議及批准本公司及其附 屬公司截至 2025年 3月 31日止三個月的第一季度業績及其刊發，及其他議題。 承董事會命 中國旅遊集團中免股份有限公司 董事會主席 范雲軍先生 中國•北京 2025年 4月 15日 於本公告日期，董事會成員包括非執行董事范雲軍先生及劉昆女士，執行董事常 築軍先生、王月浩先生及王軒先生及獨立非執行董事葛明先生、王瑛女士及王強 先生。 （一家於中華人民共和國註冊成立的股份有限公司） （股份代號：1880） 董事會會議召開日期 ...