Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a projected investment return that exceeds the market benchmark by over 20% in the next 6-12 months [6]. Core Insights - The Chinese beauty industry is transitioning from "incremental expansion" to "stock game," with the market expected to reach a scale of 465.3 billion yuan by 2025, reflecting a 5.1% year-on-year growth, marking the maturity of the market [1][6]. - Domestic brands are gaining market share due to their understanding of local consumer needs and agile operations, shifting from market participants to leaders [1]. - The competition has evolved from traffic acquisition to a systematic comparison of brand strength, product technology, and sustainable innovation capabilities [1]. Summary by Relevant Sections Company Performance - The company has successfully transitioned from a "single-core drive" to a "platform group" strategy, with its main brand, Han Shu, contributing 3.344 billion yuan in revenue in the first half of 2025, driven by the expansion into men's skincare and high-end hair care [2]. - The second growth curve represented by the "Yi Ye" brand has seen a revenue surge of 146.5% year-on-year to 397 million yuan [2]. Long-term Growth Strategy - The company has set a clear goal to achieve 30 billion yuan in sales by 2030, supported by three core drivers: scientific research outcomes, brand category expansion, and deepening global layout [3]. - The application of AI in production and marketing, along with talent development, is expected to enhance operational efficiency and support the long-term revenue target [3]. Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from 4.191 billion yuan in 2023 to 12.646 billion yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 56.6% in 2024 and 27.4% in 2025 [4]. - Net profit is expected to increase from 461 million yuan in 2023 to 1.609 billion yuan in 2027, with a significant growth rate of 213.5% in 2024 [4]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to rise from 1.16 yuan in 2023 to 4.04 yuan in 2027, reflecting strong profitability [4].

Core Insights - The beauty industry is witnessing a shift as leading brands are refocusing on offline channels, which are expected to become a significant growth area by 2026 [1][3] - Major companies like Marubi, Proya, and Shiseido are signaling a strategic pivot towards offline sales, indicating a collective recognition of the potential profitability in this space [1][3][4] Group 1: Market Trends - The past year has seen brands expressing concerns over high competition, expensive traffic, and declining online sales, leading to a reevaluation of growth strategies [1][2] - Data from 2023-2024 shows slight increases in offline revenues for major brands, but their overall contribution to total revenue is declining, highlighting a need for strategic investment in offline channels [3][4] Group 2: Strategic Shifts - Natural堂 has demonstrated the potential of offline channels, with average annual revenues exceeding 1.6 billion yuan over the past three years, indicating that offline can still be a vital growth area [4] - The increasing costs of online traffic and the saturation of online platforms are pushing beauty brands to reconsider their channel strategies, making offline channels a more attractive option for sustainable growth [4][5] Group 3: OTC Channel Opportunities - The OTC (Over-the-Counter) channel is emerging as a key battleground for domestic brands, with over 30% of the top 100 cosmetic brands already having products displayed in pharmacies [6][7] - Major pharmacy chains are actively seeking to expand their beauty product offerings, with plans to introduce personal care items in a significant number of their stores [6][7] Group 4: Brand Strategies - Brands are adopting targeted product strategies for different channels, with Marubi launching new products specifically for offline sales and Proya entering the OTC market with a focus on medical and cosmetic synergy [8][9] - The emphasis is on creating engaging in-store experiences and building emotional connections with consumers to enhance brand loyalty and drive sales [10][11]

Summary of the Conference Call Transcript Company Overview - **Company**: Shanghai Shumei Cosmetics Co., Ltd. (上美股份) - **Stock Code**: 2145.HK - **Current Stock Price**: 74.80 HKD (as of January 21, 2026) - **Target Price**: 116.00 HKD (by December 2026) [2][12] Key Points and Arguments Financial Projections - **2026 Goals**: - Revenue and profit are expected to grow by 25% year-on-year, driven by: - Han Shu (韩束) sales growth of 20% - Yi Ye (一页) sales growth exceeding 50% - Emerging brands (e.g., An Min You) gradually increasing sales [1][4] - **Revenue Forecast**: - FY2026 revenue projected at 10,839 million HKD, with a growth rate of 25.5% [7][13] - FY2027 revenue projected at 12,911 million HKD, with a growth rate of 19.1% [7][13] Operational Recovery - Previous controversies are fading, with operational metrics (daily sales, return rates, traffic acquisition) returning to normal levels due to rapid responses from the company, including: - Live streaming from factories and R&D centers - Collaborations with official media - Long-term brand-building activities, such as advertisements featuring well-known actors [1][4] International Expansion - Mid-term goal to achieve sales of 3 billion HKD by 2030, with 2026 serving as a foundational year [1][4] Shareholder Returns - Dividend payout ratio is expected to maintain at approximately 38% in the first half of 2025 [1][4] Market Position and Trends - The company is expected to benefit from the rapid growth of the Chinese beauty industry and the "Guochao" (national trend) phenomenon, leveraging a successful multi-brand portfolio, robust R&D, comprehensive sales network, and increasing brand value [1][8] Emerging Brands Performance - **Han Shu**: Targeting a 20% sales increase in 2026, with Douyin (TikTok) as a major contributor [4] - **Yi Ye**: Aiming for over 50% sales growth in 2026, driven by an expanded customer base and product offerings [4] - **An Min You**: Projected sales of 400 million HKD in 2026, with stable daily sales and profit margins [4] - **Ji Fang**: Targeting sales of 100 to 200 million HKD in 2026 [4] Financial Metrics - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - FY2026 adjusted EPS projected at 3.67 HKD, with a growth rate of 27.4% [7][13] - **Profit Margins**: - Gross margin expected to be 78.2% in FY2026 [7][13] - EBITDA margin projected at 14.5% [7][13] Risks and Catalysts - **Downside Risks**: - Potential decline in product quality, inflation, challenges in new brand incubation, and government regulations [14] - **Upside Catalysts**: - Successful incubation of new brands and better-than-expected growth of main brands [15] Conclusion - The company maintains a "Buy" rating with a target price of 116 HKD, reflecting a favorable outlook based on projected growth in the beauty sector and effective operational strategies [1][12]

Core Viewpoint - The OTC channel presents significant opportunities for beauty brands, offering professional endorsements, precise targeting of skincare needs, and immediate product experiences, but it also poses challenges due to strict professional requirements and a talent shortage in the industry [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Entry and Growth - By 2025, over six domestic cosmetic companies are expected to enter the OTC channel, marking it as the "Year of Domestic Beauty OTC Layout" [2]. - Leading domestic beauty brand Proya (603605.SH) announced its entry into the OTC channel in January 2026, joining a growing list of companies [2]. - Brands like Winona and Kefu Beauty have been early entrants into the OTC channel, with Winona's sales nearing 1 billion yuan in 2023, capturing over 60% of the market share in this channel [5]. Group 2: Strategic Developments - In April 2025, Furuida Bio announced plans to accelerate its OTC channel development, aiming to cover 10,000 drugstore chains and launch 100 "cosmetic and medicinal" SKUs [5]. - Companies are increasingly focusing on integrating with the professional environment of pharmacies rather than merely distributing products [5]. - Proya is preparing multiple products for the OTC channel, emphasizing the importance of medical device products as a foundation for entry [6]. Group 3: Market Potential and Challenges - The OTC channel has approximately double the growth potential, with Winona targeting to cover 250,000 pharmacies [8]. - As of December 2024, there are about 705,000 licensed drug retail enterprises in China, with Winona covering over 110,000, representing about one-seventh of the total retail pharmacy stores [9]. - The demand for beauty products in pharmacies is rising due to pressures on traditional pharmacy profits and the need for transformation [9]. Group 4: Profitability and Talent Shortage - Medical device products have a significantly higher gross margin, averaging 77%-83%, compared to regular cosmetic products [9]. - The beauty industry faces a talent shortage in the pharmacy channel, as many brands rely on pharmacists who must understand both pharmaceuticals and cosmetics [10]. - Companies like Betaini are addressing this by training pharmacy staff to enhance customer trust and provide professional consultations [10][11].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [3] Core Insights - In December 2025, the year-on-year growth of social retail sales was 0.9%, with a total of 4.5 trillion yuan, indicating a decline of 0.4 percentage points compared to November 2025. Excluding automobiles, the total was 4.0 trillion yuan, growing by 1.7% year-on-year [5] - The report emphasizes the importance of service consumption sectors for the upcoming Spring Festival opportunities [5] - The report suggests a shift in retail industry logic from "adjusting input" to "adjusting output," with a focus on improving same-store sales and customer flow, which will enhance profit elasticity as the share of high-margin private brands increases [5] Summary by Sections Retail Sector Performance - In December 2025, retail sales of goods reached 3.9 trillion yuan, growing by 0.7% year-on-year, while catering revenue was 0.6 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2.2% [5] - The growth rates for various categories in December included: - Grain and oil food retail sales grew by 3.9% - Beverage retail sales grew by 1.7% - Tobacco and alcohol retail sales declined by 2.9% [5] - In the optional consumer goods category, cosmetics and gold and silver jewelry retail sales grew by 8.8% and 5.9%, respectively [5] E-commerce Insights - The e-commerce penetration rate slightly decreased, with online retail sales of physical goods reaching 13.1 trillion yuan in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 5.2%. The penetration rate was 26.1%, a decrease of 0.7 percentage points year-on-year [5] - For the year, the growth rates for e-commerce categories were: food (14.5%), clothing (1.9%), and daily necessities (4.1%) [5] Investment Recommendations - Retail: Focus on companies like Bubugao, Huijia Times, Yonghui Supermarket, and Chongqing Department Store [5] - Cosmetics: Prefer high-end brand assets and consider low-positioned stocks like Maogeping and Yixian E-commerce [5] - Jewelry: Anticipate strong sales during the traditional gold sales peak in Q1, with recommendations for Laopu Gold and Mankalon [5] - Tourism: Focus on winter sports themes and the Spring Festival market, with recommendations for Changbai Mountain and Huangshan Tourism [5] - Education: Highlight opportunities in undervalued vocational education stocks like China Oriental Education and Action Education [5]

Core Viewpoint - The recent departure of Gu Mai, a partner of NAN beauty under Shangmei Co., has raised concerns about the company's reliance on a single brand and its overall business strategy in the beauty industry [1][2]. Group 1: Company Overview - Shangmei Co. has a diverse portfolio of brands, including skincare and maternal and infant products, but over 80% of its revenue still comes from the Han Shu brand [1][4]. - As of the first half of 2025, Han Shu generated revenue of 33.44 billion yuan, accounting for 81.4% of the total revenue, with a year-on-year increase of 14.3% [4][6]. - Other brands under Shangmei, such as newpage, Yiyezi, and Hongse Xiaoxiang, contributed significantly less, with revenues of 3.97 billion yuan, 0.89 billion yuan, and 1.59 billion yuan, respectively [4]. Group 2: Market Position and Challenges - The company has a strong presence on Douyin, with over 90% of its revenue coming from online channels, primarily from Douyin, indicating a high sensitivity to platform traffic [1][5]. - The departure of Gu Mai, who had expertise in the Tmall channel, highlights a gap in Shangmei's strategy, as the brand has struggled to gain traction on Tmall despite its strong performance on Douyin [2][5]. - The brand NAN beauty, launched in September 2025, has not shown significant growth in its follower count on platforms like Xiaohongshu, indicating challenges in brand performance [2]. Group 3: Financial and Operational Insights - Shangmei's marketing expenses remain high, with sales and distribution costs accounting for 56.9% of total revenue in the first half of 2025, although this is a slight decrease from 57.6% in the previous year [6]. - The company has been exploring new growth avenues, but the success of these initiatives remains uncertain [7]. - The recent controversy surrounding Han Shu's products, which were found to contain questionable ingredients, has negatively impacted the company's stock price, which fell from 85.3 HKD to 57 HKD before recovering slightly to 73.95 HKD [6].

Core Insights - The domestic beauty brand Han Shu is currently facing challenges, including a controversy over product ingredients and executive turnover, which reflects broader scrutiny in the beauty industry [1][3][4] Group 1: Ingredient Controversy - Han Shu's two facial mask products were reported by CCTV to contain epidermal growth factor (EGF), leading to public concern despite the company's claims of compliance [4][6] - EGF is primarily used in medical applications, and its use in cosmetics is prohibited in China due to safety concerns, prompting Han Shu to withdraw the affected products and issue a statement asserting no EGF was added [6][9] - The discrepancy between testing results from CCTV and Han Shu's own tests raises questions about the detection methods used, highlighting the lack of standardized testing for EGF in cosmetics [7][8] Group 2: Business Performance and Strategy - Han Shu has experienced significant growth, with revenue reaching 5.591 billion yuan in 2024, marking over a threefold increase in two years, making it a key driver for its parent company, Shangmei [10][11] - The brand's strategy of focusing on single products and leveraging platforms like Douyin has led to its dominance in the beauty sector, achieving a GMV of 33.4 billion yuan in 2023 [11][13] - However, the company's reliance on Han Shu, which accounted for 82.3% of revenue in 2024, poses risks, as any issues with the brand could directly impact overall performance [15][16] Group 3: Market Challenges and Future Directions - The growth rate of Han Shu has begun to slow, with a 14.3% increase in revenue for the first half of 2025, indicating a need for transformation and diversification [17][18] - To reduce dependency on Han Shu, Shangmei is accelerating the development of multiple brands, with new brand Newpage achieving a revenue of 397 million yuan in the first half of 2025, growing by 146.5% [18][20] - The company is also pursuing globalization, entering Southeast Asian markets with tailored products, but faces challenges in brand recognition and local market adaptation [20][21] Group 4: Innovation and Long-term Goals - The shift from a marketing-driven approach to a technology-driven strategy is crucial for Han Shu to enhance its product offerings and address consumer skepticism regarding domestic brands [21][22] - The company aims to achieve a revenue target of 10 billion yuan by 2025, with ongoing investments in research and development to support this goal [21][22]

Group 1 - The Xu Hui District Intellectual Property Protection Center has been established to create a comprehensive "one-stop" service system for intellectual property issues, gathering nine units including the district court and procuratorate [1][2] - The center aims to develop a "15-minute intellectual property service circle" centered around No. 650 Caobao Road, enhancing public services and addressing the needs of innovative entities [1][2] - The center has successfully handled a large-scale trademark registration change for Shanghai Shangmei Cosmetics Co., Ltd., completing the process in one month instead of the usual year [3] Group 2 - Xu Hui District hosts 114 trademark agencies and 54 patent agencies, actively attracting quality service institutions to enhance intellectual property services [4] - Armstrong (China) Investment Co., Ltd. has applied to join the Shanghai Key Trademark Protection Directory, which will strengthen its defense capabilities against intellectual property infringements [4] - The center is promoting the concept of "data intellectual property registration," allowing companies to monetize valuable data resources, such as AI algorithms, as part of their assets [4] Group 3 - The Xu Hui District Intellectual Property Bureau has organized a customized expert consultation for American Standard (China) Co., Ltd. to enhance brand protection against counterfeiting [6] - A three-person expert team was assigned to provide actionable advice, including changing enforcement locations and leveraging customs policies to combat counterfeit sources [6] - The core trademark of American Standard has been included in the Shanghai Key Trademark Protection Directory, enhancing its protection against infringement [6]

Group 1 - The core issue revolves around the controversy regarding Han Shu's face masks containing the banned ingredient Epidermal Growth Factor (EGF), leading to a significant trust crisis for the brand and its parent company, Up Beauty Co. [2][3] - Han Shu's response included presenting testing reports claiming no EGF was added, but discrepancies in test results from different third-party organizations raise questions about the legitimacy of the findings [4][9] - The investigation highlighted that the cosmetic industry may have "AB formula" practices, where different formulations are used for testing and actual production, contributing to the confusion [4][10] Group 2 - The pricing strategy of Han Shu has come under scrutiny, with reports indicating that a product priced at 399 yuan may only cost around 26 yuan to produce, raising concerns about inflated pricing and marketing over substance [10][12] - Han Shu's heavy reliance on marketing, with significant sales expenses amounting to 23.37 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, contrasts sharply with its low research and development expenditure of only 1.03 billion yuan [11][12] - Up Beauty Co. is heavily dependent on Han Shu, which accounted for 81.4% of the company's total revenue in the first half of 2025, indicating a lack of diversification in its brand portfolio [12][13] Group 3 - The company has attempted to revitalize its other brands, such as One Leaf, but faces challenges due to market saturation and lack of unique competitive advantages [13][14] - The ongoing controversy and reliance on a single brand may hinder Up Beauty Co.'s long-term stability and growth, especially in a highly competitive beauty market [14]

Core Insights - The beauty industry is undergoing a significant transformation as consumers prioritize product ingredients and efficacy over marketing narratives and brand stories [1][2] - The competition among companies is shifting from traditional marketing to a focus on scientific validation and technical authority, particularly regarding core ingredients [1][3] Group 1: Industry Dynamics - The battle for defining the "ingredient king" is exemplified by the prolonged conflict between Huaxi Biological and Juzhi Biological over recombinant collagen, highlighting the industry's shift towards scientific discourse [1][2] - Companies are increasingly engaged in disputes over intellectual property and scientific narratives, as seen in the conflict between medical company Aierfu and skincare brand Zhanmeiya, which revolves around the storytelling of scientific advancements [3] Group 2: Market Competition - The competition for established, cash-generating scientific products is illustrated by the dispute between Shuiyang Co. and Ruoyu Chen over the agency rights for the Spanish brand "Mestique," which has shown remarkable growth in the Chinese market [5][6] - The financial performance of companies varies significantly, with some experiencing revenue growth alongside increased R&D spending, while others face declining revenues despite high R&D investments [6][7] Group 3: Consumer Behavior - A significant shift in consumer preferences is noted, with 58.8% of consumers prioritizing product ingredients in their purchasing decisions, indicating a growing demand for transparency and efficacy [15][21] - The rise of the "ingredient party" has led to increased scrutiny of product claims, pushing companies to provide credible testing reports and validate their ingredients [15][21] Group 4: Future Trends - The beauty industry's future is marked by a "scientific arms race," with brands striving to establish their authority in scientific research and ingredient validation [8][16] - Companies are exploring unique natural ingredients and integrating skincare with makeup, reflecting a trend towards holistic beauty solutions [20][21]