上 市 公 司 美容护理 2024 年 08 月 23 日 上美股份 (02145) —— 业绩高增，看好洗护品类爆发及多品牌曲线 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 | --- | --- | |------------------------|---------------------| | 市场数据： | 2024 年 08 月 22 日 | | 收盘价（港币） | 34.85 | | 恒生中国企业指数 | 6224.24 | | 52 周最高/最低（港币） | 56.95/18.80 | | H 股市值（亿港币） | 138.70 | | 流通 H 股（百万股） | 206.25 | | 汇率（人民币/港币） | 1.0940 | 一年内股价与基准指数对比走势： -18% 82% 182% HSCEI 上美股份 资料来源：Bloomberg 证券分析师 王立平 A0230511040052 wanglp@swsresearch.com 王盼 A0230523120001 wangpan@swsresearch.com 联系人 王盼 (8621)23297818× wangpan@swsresearch.co ...

证券研究报告 上美股份 (2145 HK) 港股通 韩束增长势头强劲，多品牌潜力可期 投资评级(维持): 买入 目标价(港币): 57.03 华泰研究 中报点评 2024 年 8 月 23 日│中国香港 化妆品 韩束增长势头强劲，大众护肤市场有望维持领先，更多品牌潜力释放可期 24H1 公司实现营收 35.02 亿/yoy120.7%，净利 4.12 亿元/yoy308.7%，业 绩增长强劲。主品牌韩束继续维持抖音渠道领先地位，天猫/京东等渠道亦 快速发展；明星产品红蛮腰系列 2.0 升级，白蛮腰系列亦开始放量，后续活 肤水等单品 SKU 亦有望持续完善，品牌在大众护肤市场有望继续领先、潜 力仍可期。newpage 维持快速发展势头，红色小象转型初见成效，一叶子 仍处调整期，安敏优等多品牌覆盖差异化细分市场。公司持续深耕大众市场 中护肤/母婴护理/洗护品类，六六战略有望支撑长期可持续发展。董事会已 决议派发中期股息每股 0.75 元。预计 24-26 年 EPS2.27/2.99/3.54 元（维 持），可比公司 Wind 一致盈利预测 PE 均值 22 倍，考虑主品牌韩束增势强 劲，给予公司 24 年 23 ...

香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告之內容概不負責，對其準確性 或完整性亦不發表任何聲明，並明確表示概不就因本公告全部或任何部分內容而產生或因倚賴 該等內容而引致之任何損失承擔任何責任。 CHICMAX Shanghai Chicmax Cosmetic Co., Ltd. 上海上美化妝品股份有限公司 （於中華人民共和國註冊成立的股份有限公司） （股份代號：2145） 截至2024年6月30日止六個月中期業績公告 上海上美化妝品股份有限公司（「本公司」）董事（「董事」）會（「董事會」）公佈本 公司及其附屬公司（統稱「本集團」）截至2024年6月30日止六個月（「2024年上半 年」）的未經審核綜合中期業績，連同截至2023年6月30日止六個月（「2023年上半 年」）的比較數字。 表現摘要 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------|------------------------|--------------|-------| | | | | | | | 截至 6 月 30 | 日止六個月 | 變動 | | | 2024 年 人民幣百萬元 | 2023 年 ...

[Table_Title] 【 广 发 商 社 & 海 外 】 上 美 股 份 （02145.HK） 供应链+强运营难以复制，二三品牌起势 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： ⚫ 事件：公司发布盈利预告，24H1 预计收入 34-36 亿元，同比增长 114- 127%，预计 24H1 净利润 3.9-4.1 亿元，同比增长 286-306%。 ⚫ 点评：上半年业绩如期兑现，收入及利润增加主要由于公司主力品牌韩 束产生的收入多渠道快速增长及公司第二品牌梯队newpage一页的销 售业绩同比大幅增长。 ⚫ 业绩拆分：预计韩束翻倍以上增长，一页表现亮眼。24H1 预计韩束收 入翻倍以上增长，一页 2 倍以上增长，红色小象和一叶子仍下滑。根 据蝉妈妈数据，24H1 韩束抖音 GMV 同比+279%、一叶子抖音 GMV 同比+18%、红色小象抖音 GMV 同比+222%、一页抖音 GMV 同比 +209%。韩束抖音短剧独家运营模式，强供应链下套组高性价比，难 以被复制。董事长吕总给激励充分，公司新品牌多采取与创始人分享股 权的方式，以 new page 为例，30%的股权为章子怡持有。 ⚫ 盈利预测和投资建议 ...

Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained) [1] Core Views - The company released a strong 24H1 earnings preview, with revenue expected to grow 114 3%-126 9% YoY to 3 4-3 6 billion yuan, and net profit expected to grow 286%-306% YoY to 390-410 million yuan [4] - The high revenue growth is driven by strong performance of the Han Shu brand on Douyin, with GMV increasing 136% YoY during the 618 shopping festival, and the second-tier brands also showing high growth [4] - The company is focusing on multiple channels, product series, and sub-brands, with a strategic shift back to offline channels and a diversified product matrix, including the popular Red Waist and White Waist series [5] - The company has a clear multi-brand strategy, aiming to build two super skincare brands, two strong maternal and infant brands, and two super personal care brands, expanding its influence across multiple categories and price segments [5] Financial Performance and Forecasts - Revenue for 24H1 is expected to be 3 4-3 6 billion yuan, with net profit of 390-410 million yuan, representing a net profit margin of 10 8%-12 1% [4] - Revenue for 2024E is forecasted to be 7 184 billion yuan, with net profit of 900 million yuan, and EPS of 2 26 yuan [5] - Revenue for 2025E is forecasted to be 9 109 billion yuan, with net profit of 1 166 billion yuan, and EPS of 2 93 yuan [5] - Revenue for 2026E is forecasted to be 10 832 billion yuan, with net profit of 1 414 billion yuan, and EPS of 3 55 yuan [5] - The company's gross margin is expected to improve from 72 05% in 2023A to 74 25% in 2026E, with net profit margin increasing from 11 00% to 13 05% over the same period [9] Market Performance - The stock has shown significant volatility, with a 51% decline in July 2023 compared to the Hang Seng Index, and a 9 21% drop in the past month [2] - The stock's relative performance has been weaker than the market, with a 5 29% underperformance in the past month and a 9 27% underperformance over the past three months [2] Strategic Focus - The company is leveraging its strong presence on Douyin, with the Han Shu brand achieving a GMV of 3 593 billion yuan in 24H1, a 262 41% YoY increase, and a dominant position in the beauty and skincare categories [4] - The company is expanding its product portfolio with the Red Waist and White Waist series, which have become core products, and is targeting the mid-to-low-end market with a focus on cost-effectiveness [5] - The company is also focusing on offline channels, with plans to re-enter the CS channel and leverage its existing offline resources, which accounted for 45 7% of revenue in 2019 [5] Valuation - The stock is trading at a forward P/E of 15 2X for 2024E, 11 8X for 2025E, and 9 7X for 2026E, with a dividend yield of 4 4% for 2024E, 5 8% for 2025E, and 7 3% for 2026E [5][9]

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 公司点评 上美股份(02145.HK) 2024 年 07 月 29 日 买入（维持） 所属行业：美容护理/化妆品 当前价格(港元)：37.45 证券分析师 易丁依 资格编号：S0120523070004 邮箱：yidy＠tebon.com.cn 市场表现 上美股份 恒生指数 -51% -26% 0% 26% 51% 77% 103% 129% 2023-07 2023-11 2024-03 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------|-------|--------|--------| | 恒 生 指 数 对比 | 1M | 2M | 3M | | 绝对涨幅(%) | -9.21 | -18.86 | -15.53 | | 相对涨幅(%) | -5.29 | -9.27 | -11.96 | 资料来源：德邦研究所，聚源数据 相关研究 1.《上美股份：23 全年业绩超预期，抖 音延续高增长》，2024.3.22 2.《上美股份：渠道转型现成效，打造 多品牌的化妆品集团》，2024.1.26 上美股份：24H1 预告高增 ...

证券研究报告 港股公司|公司点评|上美股份（02145） 韩束抖音势能延续+流量外溢，2024H1 营收利润快速增长 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 glzqdatemark1 2024年07月28日 证券研究报告 |报告要点 2024H1 韩束抖音渠道延续 2023 年以来高增长，且抖音流量外溢至天猫/京东等渠道，第二品 牌梯队 newpage 一页销售业绩同比大幅增长，驱动公司上半年营收利润快速增长。伴随韩束 产品拓展（红蛮腰/白蛮腰/活肤水）、抖音流量外溢至线上其它渠道与线下 CS 渠道，公司有 望通过产品极致性价比优势、灵活渠道运营能力与与韩束品牌积淀持续攫取份额。 |分析师及联系人 邓文慧 李英 SAC：S0590522060001 SAC：S0590522110002 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 1 / 5 港股公司|公司点评 glzqdatemark2 2024年07月28日 上美股份（02145） 韩束抖音势能延续+流量外溢，2024H1 营收 利润快速增长 | --- | --- | |------------|-----------------| | 行 业： | 美容护理/化妆品 | | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a strong expectation of performance exceeding the market by over 20% in the next six months [4][5]. Core Insights - The company is projected to achieve significant revenue growth, with a forecasted revenue of 34-36 billion RMB for the first half of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 114.3%-126.9% [4]. - The net profit for the same period is expected to be between 3.9-4.1 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 286.1%-305.9% [4]. - The company's main brand, 韩束 (Hansu), has shown strong performance with a GMV of 34.49 billion RMB, leading the market [4]. - The company is focusing on enhancing its product quality and expanding its brand portfolio, particularly in the hair care segment [4][5]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - The company’s projected revenues for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 68.61 billion RMB, 88.47 billion RMB, and 105.28 billion RMB, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 64%, 29%, and 19% [5][6]. - The expected net profit for the same years is 9.25 billion RMB, 12.40 billion RMB, and 15.07 billion RMB, with growth rates of 101%, 34%, and 22% [5][6]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 2.32 RMB, 3.12 RMB, and 3.79 RMB for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [5][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 61.13 [6][7]. Core Insights - The company expects a strong revenue growth of 34-36 billion RMB for 24H1, representing a year-on-year increase of 114%-127%, with net profit projected at 3.9-4.1 billion RMB compared to 1.01 billion RMB in the same period last year [1]. - The main brand, Han Shu, and the second brand, New Page, are leading the growth, with significant sales performance noted across multiple channels [1][2]. - The report anticipates an EPS of 2.27, 2.99, and 3.54 RMB for the years 2024-2026, maintaining the previous estimates [1]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company forecasts revenue growth from 2,675 million RMB in 2022 to 7,309 million RMB in 2024E, reflecting a growth rate of 74.40% [5]. - Net profit is expected to increase from 147.11 million RMB in 2022 to 903.99 million RMB in 2024E, showing a growth rate of 96.05% [5]. - The report projects a net profit margin of 11.4% for 24H1, which is significantly higher than 6.4% in 23H1 [1]. Brand Performance - Han Shu's Douyin GMV reached 3.34 billion RMB in 24H1, with a quarter-on-quarter growth of 40% [2]. - New Page's performance is also notable, with a Douyin GMV of 0.8 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year increase of 206% [2]. - The report highlights the potential for further growth in the skincare market, particularly with new product launches and brand expansions [1][3]. Management Confidence - Recent insider buying by executives, including a total of 31.21 million RMB by the vice president, indicates strong confidence in the company's future [4].

国泰君安版权所有发送给上海东方财富金融数据服务有限公司.东财接收研报邮箱.ybjieshou@eastmoney.com p1 股 票 研 究 4452273 证 券 研 究 报 告 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2024.07.28 业绩符合预期，推进品牌及渠道拓展 上美股份(2145) 家庭及个人用品 [Table_Industry] [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 ——上美股份 2024 半年报业绩预告点评 | --- | --- | --- | |------------------|----------------------|-------------------| | 訾猛(分析师) | 闫清徽(分析师) | 杨柳(分析师) | | 021-38676442 | 021-38031651 | 021-38038323 | | zimeng@gtjas.com | yanqinghui@gtjas.com | yangliu@gtjas.com | | S0880513120002 | S0880522120004 | S0880521120001 | [当前价格 Table_ ...