乳业产业链近况更新 20260115 摘要 2026 年乳制品消费行情好转，总产奶量与去年持平，约 830-840 万吨， 大型牧场单产提升和社会化牧场去产能并存，伊利蒙牛自有奶源发展未 受限，总供应量稳定。 徐州牧场供伊利奶价约 3.45-3.48 元/公斤（含运费 0.17 元），内蒙古 地区奶价较低，约 2.83-2.86 元/公斤，存在区域差异。 2026 年上半年伊利曾限量收购社会牧场鲜奶，配额约 75%，10 月起 缓解，11 月和 12 月恢复全额收购，预计春节后仍可能限量供应 4 个月。 北方散奶价格从去年初 2.4 元/公斤涨至 3.2 元/公斤后回落，目前稳定 在 2.8-2.9 元/公斤；南方散奶价格较高，10 月以来维持在 3.1-3.7 元/ 公斤，因伊利蒙牛销售好转，小乳品厂竞争加剧。 肉牛价格企稳，淘汰牛价格上涨，好的淘汰牛可卖到 21 元/公斤，养后 备牛不再亏损，一头成母牛淘汰利润约 8,000 元。 南方饲料成本约 1.85 元/公斤，现金流成本 2.6-2.7 元/公斤；北方饲料 成本约 1.63 元/公斤，现金流成本约 2.3 元/公斤，饲料价格下降使大部 分社会化牧场 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights a rebound in Hong Kong dairy stocks, with significant gains in companies like Yurun Agriculture, Modern Farming, and Australia Asia Group, amidst a challenging performance outlook for the dairy industry in 2025 [1] - The dairy industry is entering a new phase characterized by "structural differentiation," with liquid milk business growth slowing down and intense price competition becoming a survival strategy for companies [1] - High-value segments such as premium milk powder, low-temperature fresh milk, and life-cycle nutrition products are emerging rapidly, creating new growth trajectories for the industry [1] Group 2 - The competitive landscape has shifted from simple scale and price competition to a comprehensive contest involving technology, supply chain, and brand value [1] - Structural adjustments and transformations are expected to lead to new development prospects for the industry by 2026 [1] Group 3 - Specific stock performance includes Yurun Agriculture rising by 7.91% to 4.640, Modern Farming increasing by 5.37% to 1.570, and Australia Asia Group up by 2.30% to 2.670 [2] - Other companies such as Original Ecology Agriculture, Mengniu Dairy, and China Feihe also experienced slight increases in their stock prices [2]

瑞银发表研究报告指，蒙牛去年持续面对整体业绩下行的压力，全年收入预计将下降中到高个位数，主 要是由于液态奶的表现在消费需求疲软、原料奶供应过剩和渠道分散。展望2026年，蒙牛管理层目标依 赖产品创新、新零售渠道扩展及产品组合改善，支持销售重返正增长。另外，股东回报仍然是公司优先 考虑事项，包括稳定派息和正考虑潜在股份回购。瑞银将蒙牛目标价由20.6港元轻微下调至20.5港元， 维持"买入"评级。 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the dairy and frozen food industries, focusing on major players such as Mengniu and Yili in the dairy sector, and Anjins Foods in the frozen food sector. Dairy Industry Insights - **2025 Performance**: Mengniu's performance growth is partially attributed to a low base from reduced market investment in 2024, with potential negative growth exceeding 20% if investments had not been cut. Yili's classic series saw a significant decline of approximately 8%, while its premium series, Telunsu, declined by about 12% [1][2]. - **Liquid Milk Sales**: Yili's liquid milk sales experienced a negative growth of about 7% for the year, while Mengniu's sales dropped nearly 16%. However, Mengniu showed a monthly growth of about 3% in December 2025 due to the low base effect [2]. - **Low-Temperature Fresh Milk**: Yili's low-temperature fresh milk grew by approximately 10.07%, while Mengniu's growth was around 12%. Both companies faced declines in low-temperature yogurt, with Yili down about 9% and Mengniu down about 3% [5][6]. - **Sales Growth Expectations**: The dairy industry is expected to see slight overall sales growth in 2026, with major brands collectively growing by about 6%. Notably, Miaokelan Duo's performance was outstanding, achieving a growth rate of approximately 13% [15]. Frozen Food Industry Insights - **Market Conditions**: The frozen food sector is expected to see a year-on-year growth of about 7% in the first quarter of 2026, with January's growth significantly influenced by the timing of the Spring Festival [18]. - **Anjins Foods Strategy**: Anjins Foods has reduced subsidies and implemented indirect price increases while maintaining support for key products. This strategy has not significantly impacted sales, as they continue to adapt to market demands [19][20]. - **Consumer Behavior Changes**: The recovery in the restaurant sector is sluggish, while retail consumption is rebounding well. The shift in consumer preferences towards home consumption has led to a diversification of product offerings beyond traditional hot pot ingredients [21]. Key Product Performance - **Miaokelan Duo**: The cheese category, particularly Miaokelan Duo, has shown robust performance, with family consumption products driving significant growth, although they still represent less than 30% of total sales [15]. - **New Product Launches**: Miaokelan Duo's new products are in the distribution phase, showing potential for future sales growth if they become popular [17]. Market Dynamics - **Price Competition**: The fresh milk market is expected to experience a small peak, with price competition easing. The lowest price range is stabilizing between 45.9 to 46.9 yuan, compared to 39 to 42 yuan in 2024 [13]. - **Consumer Demand Trends**: Overall consumer demand is declining, but extended sales periods may lead to increased purchasing frequency, particularly during festive seasons [12]. Future Outlook - **2026 Growth Strategies**: Companies are optimistic about market recovery in 2026, focusing on underperforming regions and expanding product lines, including halal products and new retail strategies [28]. - **Profit Margin Expectations**: Profit margins are expected to improve significantly starting in Q4 2026 due to declining raw material prices and optimized factory policies [27]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and data points from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the dairy and frozen food industries.

Core Viewpoint - The Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region has announced the addition of 49 new "North Border Craftsmen" for the year 2025, highlighting the region's commitment to cultivating skilled talent in various industries [1] Group 1: North Border Craftsmen Selection - The selection process for the 2025 North Border Craftsmen involved recommendations from various units, expert evaluations, training to enhance the "Five Strengths of Craftsmen," and comprehensive assessments [1] - Notable individuals among the 49 selected craftsmen include Kang Heping, workshop director at Jinyu Baoling Biological Pharmaceuticals Co., Ltd., Ye Wenhui, medical deputy director at Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co., Ltd., and Zhang Xiaofeng, general manager of the product development center at Inner Mongolia Mengniu Dairy (Group) Co., Ltd. [1] Group 2: Industry Impact - The initiative reflects ongoing reforms in the construction of the industrial workforce in Inner Mongolia, leading to the emergence of numerous skilled craftsmen across various sectors [1] - The newly recognized craftsmen have demonstrated exceptional technical skills and embody the spirit of craftsmanship through their dedication to excellence and innovation [1] - As of now, Inner Mongolia has a total of 134 recognized North Border Craftsmen, indicating a growing pool of skilled professionals in the region [1]

Group 1: Capital Market Development - Inner Mongolia has achieved continuous IPOs for five consecutive years, with 12 new companies listed, and the total market capitalization of A-shares surpassing 1 trillion yuan [1][7] - The region has established a multi-level market system, enhancing direct financing and supporting the growth of strategic emerging industries [1][7] - The "Tianjun Plan" has been implemented to assist companies in listing, integrating high-quality services and financial resources to boost economic development [6][7] Group 2: Industry Highlights - Inner Mongolia is a significant player in the dairy industry, with leading companies like Yili and Mengniu driving green development and digital transformation [1][2] - The region's unique ecological initiatives have led to the creation of the world's largest organic milk source base, showcasing the integration of ecology and industry [1][2] - The rare earth industry is a cornerstone of Inner Mongolia's economy, with companies like Northern Rare Earth leading in production and market value [3][4] Group 3: Financial Performance - Inner Mongolia's listed companies have seen significant capital operations, with major asset restructurings and a total of approximately 23.77 billion yuan raised through refinancing [8] - Cash dividends from 28 companies reached 93.03 billion yuan, doubling the amount from the previous five-year period, indicating a strong commitment to shareholder returns [8] - The region has maintained a zero-default record on public market bonds for five consecutive years, reinforcing its creditworthiness [9]

Core Insights - The dairy industry is entering a new phase characterized by "structural differentiation" as liquid milk business growth slows down, leading to intensified competition focused on technology, supply chain, and brand value [1][2][4] Group 1: Industry Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, 13 out of 19 listed dairy companies in A-shares reported revenue declines, primarily due to the slowdown in liquid milk business [2] - For example, Yili's liquid milk revenue fell to 54.939 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 4.44% [2] - The overall sales of liquid milk in China dropped by 7.5% year-on-year from January to May 2025, with a further decline to 9.6% in June [2] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The market is experiencing intensified price wars, with significant price reductions observed in various milk products, leading to profit erosion for companies [3] - In the first three quarters of 2025, the total revenue of 19 listed dairy companies reached 140.852 billion yuan, with Yili, Guangming, and New Dairy accounting for 83.07% of this total [3] Group 3: Strategic Shifts - The industry is shifting from a focus on volume growth to quality and structural improvements, with companies emphasizing diversified and refined consumer needs [4] - Companies are increasingly investing in product innovation and new consumption scenarios to adapt to changing market demands, indicating a potential structural improvement in the liquid milk market by 2026 [4] Group 4: Capital Market Activity - In 2025, niche dairy companies and regional brands are increasingly pursuing IPOs, with companies like Baifei Dairy and Yipin Nutrition making significant moves in the capital market [5][6] - The trend indicates a growing interest in high-value segments such as water buffalo milk and goat milk powder, as well as regional brands with local supply chain advantages [6] Group 5: Mergers and Acquisitions - The dairy industry is witnessing accelerated mergers and acquisitions as companies seek to optimize asset portfolios and enhance efficiency amid increasing competition [8][10] - Notable transactions include Mengniu's sale of its New Zealand factory and Guangming's asset sale to Abbott, reflecting strategic adjustments to market changes [8][10] - Analysts suggest that the consolidation trend will continue, focusing on acquiring quality milk sources and enhancing regional distribution channels [10]

11 January 2026 | 12:34PM HKT Equity Research Mengniu Dairy (2319.HK): Consumer & Leisure Corporate Day: UHT milk still under pressure, with Chilled milk/IMF/Cheese driving growth; To We hosted Mengniu at our Consumer & Leisure Corporate Day on Jan 9, 2026. Key takeaways: 1) 2025 update: Mgmt reiterated the MSD%-HSD% sales decline guidance in FY25 (likely MSD%-HSD% decline in 2H25), and maintains its target for a flattish OPM yoy in 2025 despite some potential downside pressure in 2025 from liquid milk pres ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The supply-demand structure of raw milk is improving, and the snack food sector continues to show upward momentum. The food and beverage index increased by 2.1% from January 5 to January 9, ranking 24th among 28 sectors, underperforming the CSI 300 by approximately 0.7 percentage points. Sub-sectors such as processed foods (+6.7%), soft drinks (+5.8%), and snacks (+4.5%) performed relatively well [3][10][12]. Summary by Relevant Sections Weekly Insights - The supply-demand dynamics for raw milk are optimizing, and the snack food sector is experiencing sustained growth. The recent policy by the Ministry of Commerce to implement safeguard measures on imported beef is expected to alleviate the impact on domestic industries, leading to a potential increase in beef prices over the next 2-3 years. The domestic dairy sector is facing challenges, with a continuous reduction in dairy cow inventory, which may lead to a widening supply-demand gap post-Spring Festival [10][11]. Market Performance - The food and beverage index rose by 2.1% from January 5 to January 9, ranking 24th out of 28 sectors, and underperformed the CSI 300 by about 0.7 percentage points. Leading individual stocks included Qianwei Yangchun, Anji Food, and Yangyuan Beverage, while stocks like Jiabi You, *ST Chuntian, and Xianle Health saw declines [12][13]. Upstream Data - As of January 6, the GDT auction price for whole milk powder was $3,407 per ton, reflecting a 10.4% year-on-year decrease. The domestic fresh milk price was 3.03 yuan per kilogram, down 2.9% year-on-year. The domestic milk price is expected to remain under pressure in the short to medium term [19][21]. Recommended Stocks - The report recommends focusing on companies that are likely to benefit from the improving raw milk supply-demand balance and the growth in the snack food sector. Notable mentions include: - Yuran Agriculture: Expected to benefit from the recovery in raw milk prices. - Modern Dairy: Anticipated to gain from the overall industry improvement. - Yili Group and Mengniu Dairy: Expected to see positive impacts from the anticipated recovery in milk prices [10][11]. Snack Food Sector - The snack food sector is projected to continue its upward trend, particularly during the Spring Festival season. Companies such as Weilang Delicious, Ganyuan Food, and Yanjin Food are highlighted for their potential growth due to seasonal demand and strategic initiatives [11][12].

Core Viewpoint - Nestlé has initiated a global recall of infant formula products due to potential quality issues with ARA (Arachidonic Acid) sourced from suppliers, affecting over 50 countries and raising public concern about the safety of infant formula ingredients [1] Group 1: Company Responses - Mengniu stated that its ARA raw material suppliers are unrelated to the European recall incident, and all products undergo strict quality control [3] - Feihe confirmed that its ARA raw materials are not affected by any issues related to Bacillus cereus toxins, and the company adheres to stringent quality standards [3] - Junlebao mentioned that its ARA suppliers are Roget and Runke Bio, and the company follows internal control standards that exceed national regulations [3] - Danone emphasized that all its infant formula products are produced under high standards and do not use ARA from the suppliers involved in the recall [4] - Arla conducted a comprehensive review of its infant nutrition products and confirmed that its ARA suppliers are not linked to the recall issues [4] - HiPP stated that the ARA used in its products is sourced from suppliers not involved in the recall, ensuring safety and reliability [4] Group 2: Regulatory Oversight - The State Council's Food Safety Office and the Market Supervision Administration have urged Nestlé (China) to effectively manage the recall of affected products in China, ensuring consumer rights are protected [2] - The recall in the Chinese market includes four brands: Litojing, Platinum Enfamil, Shuyi Enfamil, and Wyeth's children's growth milk powder, totaling 30 batches [2]