11 January 2026 | 12:34PM HKT Equity Research Mengniu Dairy (2319.HK): Consumer & Leisure Corporate Day: UHT milk still under pressure, with Chilled milk/IMF/Cheese driving growth; To We hosted Mengniu at our Consumer & Leisure Corporate Day on Jan 9, 2026. Key takeaways: 1) 2025 update: Mgmt reiterated the MSD%-HSD% sales decline guidance in FY25 (likely MSD%-HSD% decline in 2H25), and maintains its target for a flattish OPM yoy in 2025 despite some potential downside pressure in 2025 from liquid milk pres ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The supply-demand structure of raw milk is improving, and the snack food sector continues to show upward momentum. The food and beverage index increased by 2.1% from January 5 to January 9, ranking 24th among 28 sectors, underperforming the CSI 300 by approximately 0.7 percentage points. Sub-sectors such as processed foods (+6.7%), soft drinks (+5.8%), and snacks (+4.5%) performed relatively well [3][10][12]. Summary by Relevant Sections Weekly Insights - The supply-demand dynamics for raw milk are optimizing, and the snack food sector is experiencing sustained growth. The recent policy by the Ministry of Commerce to implement safeguard measures on imported beef is expected to alleviate the impact on domestic industries, leading to a potential increase in beef prices over the next 2-3 years. The domestic dairy sector is facing challenges, with a continuous reduction in dairy cow inventory, which may lead to a widening supply-demand gap post-Spring Festival [10][11]. Market Performance - The food and beverage index rose by 2.1% from January 5 to January 9, ranking 24th out of 28 sectors, and underperformed the CSI 300 by about 0.7 percentage points. Leading individual stocks included Qianwei Yangchun, Anji Food, and Yangyuan Beverage, while stocks like Jiabi You, *ST Chuntian, and Xianle Health saw declines [12][13]. Upstream Data - As of January 6, the GDT auction price for whole milk powder was $3,407 per ton, reflecting a 10.4% year-on-year decrease. The domestic fresh milk price was 3.03 yuan per kilogram, down 2.9% year-on-year. The domestic milk price is expected to remain under pressure in the short to medium term [19][21]. Recommended Stocks - The report recommends focusing on companies that are likely to benefit from the improving raw milk supply-demand balance and the growth in the snack food sector. Notable mentions include: - Yuran Agriculture: Expected to benefit from the recovery in raw milk prices. - Modern Dairy: Anticipated to gain from the overall industry improvement. - Yili Group and Mengniu Dairy: Expected to see positive impacts from the anticipated recovery in milk prices [10][11]. Snack Food Sector - The snack food sector is projected to continue its upward trend, particularly during the Spring Festival season. Companies such as Weilang Delicious, Ganyuan Food, and Yanjin Food are highlighted for their potential growth due to seasonal demand and strategic initiatives [11][12].

Core Viewpoint - Nestlé has initiated a global recall of infant formula products due to potential quality issues with ARA (Arachidonic Acid) sourced from suppliers, affecting over 50 countries and raising public concern about the safety of infant formula ingredients [1] Group 1: Company Responses - Mengniu stated that its ARA raw material suppliers are unrelated to the European recall incident, and all products undergo strict quality control [3] - Feihe confirmed that its ARA raw materials are not affected by any issues related to Bacillus cereus toxins, and the company adheres to stringent quality standards [3] - Junlebao mentioned that its ARA suppliers are Roget and Runke Bio, and the company follows internal control standards that exceed national regulations [3] - Danone emphasized that all its infant formula products are produced under high standards and do not use ARA from the suppliers involved in the recall [4] - Arla conducted a comprehensive review of its infant nutrition products and confirmed that its ARA suppliers are not linked to the recall issues [4] - HiPP stated that the ARA used in its products is sourced from suppliers not involved in the recall, ensuring safety and reliability [4] Group 2: Regulatory Oversight - The State Council's Food Safety Office and the Market Supervision Administration have urged Nestlé (China) to effectively manage the recall of affected products in China, ensuring consumer rights are protected [2] - The recall in the Chinese market includes four brands: Litojing, Platinum Enfamil, Shuyi Enfamil, and Wyeth's children's growth milk powder, totaling 30 batches [2]

股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2025年12月31日 狀態: 新提交 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 公司名稱: 中國蒙牛乳業有限公司 呈交日期: 2026年1月7日 I. 法定/註冊股本變動 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | 不適用 | | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | 是 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 02319 | 說明 | | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 6,000,000,000 | HKD | | 0.1 HKD | | 600,000,000 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | | | | HKD | | | | 本月底結存 | | | 6,000,000,000 | HKD | | 0.1 HKD | | 600,000,000 | 本月底法定/註冊股本總額： HKD 600,000,0 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the importance of infant complementary foods, which include various types of food beyond breast milk, such as juices, purees, and solid foods, emphasizing the need for balanced nutrition during the critical growth period of infants [2] - The report titled "2026-2032 China Infant Formula Market Panorama Survey and Investment Potential Analysis" consists of eleven chapters, covering the market development environment, operational status, competitive landscape, key enterprise analysis, and future trends in the infant food industry [2] - The report serves as a crucial tool for understanding the infant food industry and for potential investors looking to enter this market [2] Group 2 - The research data is primarily sourced from national statistics, customs data, survey data, and various market monitoring databases, ensuring a comprehensive analysis of the infant formula industry [3] - The report includes an overview of the infant formula industry, its development environment, and the current operational status, along with a competitive analysis of the market [3][4] - The analysis covers the macroeconomic environment in China, including population birth rates and the implications for the infant formula market from 2021 to 2025 [4] Group 3 - The report highlights the competitive landscape of the infant formula market, noting the increasing competition from foreign brands and the strategies domestic brands must adopt to maintain market share [5][6] - It discusses the significance of product quality and brand value as key factors for success in the high-end infant formula market, which is expected to see significant growth [10][11] - The report predicts that the infant formula market will experience a shift towards high-quality, natural products, with an emphasis on organic options [11]

根据清科研究中心发布的《2025年中国股权投资市场发展研究报告》，中国VC/PE前三季度投资数量为8295起，同比2024年上升19.8%；投资金额为 5407.30亿元，同比上升9.0%。分行业看，硬科技领域获得市场较高关注，IT、半导体、生物技术/医药健康、机械制造等领域投资案例数量均超千起， AI、GPU、创新药、智能制造等细分领域热度较高。 上述数据可以视作2025年国内投融资市场的一个缩影，那么2025年的体育投融资市场又是怎样的光景呢？ 亿元级别"大单"方面，国内体育领域共有6起亿元级别投融资（约占事件总数的16.67%），金额约合14.654亿元（约占总额的87.47%）。至于投融资轮次 分布方面，2025年，国内体育领域的投融资事件仍然高度集中于早期轮次。 其中，"种子轮和天使轮"（共13起）的占比约为36%，"Pre-A轮、A轮和A+轮"（共13起）的占比约36%，"Pre-B轮、B轮以及B轮后"（共5起）占比为 14%，"战略融资、股权融资、增资扩股"（共5起）的占比总共为14%. 而更具体到细分领域，我们也尝试总结了2025年国内体育投融资事件的主要分布情况与几点趋势观察，以此回顾过去一 ...

Core Viewpoint - The National Market Supervision Administration has publicly solicited opinions on the "Draft Review Guidelines for Dairy Product Production Licenses," which aims to update the existing guidelines to better align with the evolving structure of the dairy product industry and facilitate technological breakthroughs and innovation among small enterprises [3]. Group 1: Product Category Expansion - The draft guidelines expand the product categories from three to eleven, including liquid milk, fermented milk, milk powder, concentrated dairy products, dairy fat products, cheese and its products, whey and its products, specialty livestock dairy products, local specialty dairy products, infant formula base powder, and other dairy products [4]. - This adjustment aims to enhance the operational feasibility of the guidelines by clearly defining and detailing the licensing categories and product specifics [4]. Group 2: Production Control Enhancements - The draft specifies requirements for factory site selection and environmental conditions, adjusting cleanliness standards based on product processing characteristics, and adding hygiene and access control requirements for clean work areas [5]. - It also revises equipment and process requirements, detailing standard equipment for dairy production and introducing specific technical requirements for water supply and drainage facilities [5]. Group 3: Personnel Management Improvements - The draft introduces requirements for food safety management personnel, including qualifications for the enterprise leader, food safety director, and food safety staff, mandating specialized education and relevant work experience [6]. - It also specifies educational qualifications for laboratory personnel and emphasizes regular training and assessment for staff [6]. Group 4: Support for Small and Medium Enterprises - The draft guidelines are seen as timely in response to the evolving dairy product structure in China, which is shifting from quantity to quality, with a growing focus on high-value and functional products [8]. - Analysts suggest that while the new standards may increase management costs for some companies, they also provide opportunities for small enterprises to accelerate technological innovation and gain a competitive edge in niche markets [8].

Core Insights - The high-end consumer goods industry has entered a "deep winter" in 2025, leading to widespread price reductions across various brands, including luxury cars, beauty products, and alcoholic beverages, with price drops exceeding 20% from peak levels [1] - The dairy industry, particularly high-end products, has also experienced significant price cuts, with reductions ranging from 30% to 50%, and some products seeing drops as high as 70% [1][3] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The decline in demand for high-end dairy products is not due to a general aversion to premium goods, but rather a failure of traditional brands to engage consumers effectively [4][5] - Consumers have become more rational and discerning, focusing on product quality and effectiveness rather than marketing narratives [5][6] Group 2: Marketing Strategies - Traditional marketing approaches, such as high-profile sponsorships and storytelling, are becoming less effective in reaching today's consumers, who are more skeptical and have diverse media consumption habits [9][10] - Brands like 越秀辉山 and Blueglass have struggled with outdated marketing strategies, leading to penalties and diminished brand reputation [7][8] Group 3: Product Differentiation - The dairy sector faces challenges in product differentiation, as many offerings are similar in taste and nutritional content, making it difficult to justify premium pricing [13][14] - To succeed, brands must find ways to enhance perceived value, such as emphasizing unique nutritional benefits or superior sourcing practices [17][27] Group 4: Future Opportunities - The aging population is expected to increase demand for high-quality nutritional products, presenting a cyclical opportunity for brands like 越秀辉山 to innovate and improve their offerings [28][29] - Companies should focus on modernizing marketing strategies and ensuring product quality to remain competitive in a changing market landscape [18][26]

展望未来，预计集团2026年液态奶需求将将温和复苏，销售同比增长4%。随着产品多元化逐步显效， 下半年改善将更为明显。长期而言，该行预计蒙牛计划增加对乳酪、黄油及餐饮渠道产品等深度加工乳 制品的投入。该行认为，这些举措有望在长期捕捉日益多元化的消费需求。 晨星发布研报称，维持蒙牛乳业(02319)每股20.5港元的公允价值，并认为该股目前被低估，2026年市盈 率为10倍。受惠于原料奶价格下行空间有限及液态奶销售复苏，预计2026年净利润将反弹。 ...

晨星发布研报称，维持蒙牛乳业(02319)每股20.5港元的公允价值，并认为该股目前被低估，2026年市盈 率为10倍。受惠于原料奶价格下行空间有限及液态奶销售复苏，预计2026年净利润将反弹。 展望未来，预计集团2026年液态奶需求将将温和复苏，销售同比增长4%。随着产品多元化逐步显效， 下半年改善将更为明显。长期而言，该行预计蒙牛计划增加对乳酪、黄油及餐饮渠道产品等深度加工乳 制品的投入。该行认为，这些举措有望在长期捕捉日益多元化的消费需求。 ...