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食品饮料行业重大事项点评:对欧盟乳业反补贴,利好国产替代加速
Huachuang Securities· 2025-12-24 02:05
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the food and beverage industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the benchmark index by over 5% in the next 3-6 months [24]. Core Insights - The Ministry of Commerce has announced a countervailing policy against EU dairy imports, which is expected to accelerate domestic product substitution and stabilize raw milk prices. The policy will impose temporary countervailing measures on EU dairy products starting December 23, 2025, with subsidy rates ranging from 21.9% to 42.7% [2][8]. - The policy targets high-fat dairy products, particularly cheese and cream, which have a high dependency on imports. This is expected to significantly increase the cost of EU products, thereby enhancing the price advantage for domestic manufacturers [8]. - The domestic dairy processing industry has historically relied on imports due to high raw milk costs and immature technology. The report estimates that the domestic production of similar products accounted for only 14%-18% in 2023, indicating a substantial market opportunity for local producers [8]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The food and beverage industry comprises 126 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 46,266.30 billion and a circulating market value of 45,144.74 billion [5]. Market Performance - The absolute performance of the industry over the past month is -2.1%, with a 6-month performance of 2.7% and a 12-month performance of -4.9%. Relative performance shows a decline of -5.9% over one month, -17.1% over six months, and -22.4% over twelve months [6]. Policy Impact - The countervailing measures are expected to create a market space of approximately 20 billion for cream and 14 billion for cheese, accelerating domestic substitution. The report highlights that the production capacity of deep processing projects is expected to consume over 400 million tons of raw milk, potentially leading to a reversal in the raw milk cycle by the second half of 2026 [8]. Investment Opportunities - The report identifies three main investment opportunities: - Domestic substitutes that will directly benefit from the policy, with a focus on companies like Lihigh and Miaoke, which are positioned to capture high-end market segments [8]. - Dairy farms such as Youran and Modern Dairy, which are expected to benefit from a reversal in raw milk prices [8]. - Leading dairy companies like Yili and Mengniu, which are anticipated to strengthen their competitive edge through accelerated deep processing business and improved operational stability [8].
斗不过中国,欧盟全球宣告!马克龙闯下大祸,最大赢家已浮出水面
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-12-23 18:40
2025年12月23日,中国商务部一纸公告掀翻全球贸易棋局:即日起,对欧盟乳制品加征最高42.7%的临时反补贴税。这一刀精准砍在欧盟农业"七寸"上—— 15家被抽样企业中,12家是法国公司,包括生产罗克福蓝纹奶酪、卡芒贝尔奶酪的知名品牌。 欧盟委员会当即跳脚,指责中方"毫无依据",并扬言向WTO申诉。但数据不会说谎:2025年前10个月,欧盟对华发起15起贸易调查,仅12月19日一天就新 增3起;而中国同期仅对3起欧盟产品终裁反倾销。 这场争端早已超出乳制品范畴,它是欧盟对中国电动车加税45%后的一场精准反击,也是马克龙访华时高调谈合作、回国后威胁对华加税的直接后果。贸易 战的硝烟下,谁在窃喜?新西兰奶酪出口商已摩拳擦掌,准备接管欧盟留下的14.5%中国市场份额。 2025年12月22日,中国商务部发布公告,明确临时反补贴税分为三档:配合调查的抽样企业税率为21.9%至42.7%,配合调查的其他欧盟公司统一税率为 28.6%,未配合调查的企业一律适用42.7%的最高税率。税款以保证金形式征收,计算公式为"进口货物计税价格×临时反补贴税保证金比率"。 此次措施针对的乳制品清单包括鲜乳酪、加工乳酪、蓝纹奶酪、稀奶 ...
蒙牛乳业(02319) - 提名委员会的职权范围
2025-12-23 08:45
1 設立 公司的董事會(「董事會」)現組成和設立提名委員會(「提名委員會」),其權限、 責任和具體職責如下。 2 成員 3 秘書 提名委員會的秘書(「提名委員會秘書」)應由公司的公司秘書或提名委員會不時指定 的任何其他人士擔任。 4 權限 中國蒙牛乳業有限公司(「公司」) 提名委員會的職權範圍 5.1 提名委員會的職責包括: (a) 至少每年檢討董事會的架構、人數、組成(包括技能、知識及經驗方面)和多元 化程度(考慮因素包括性別、年齡、文化及教育背景、種族、專業、行業或管理 經驗、技能、知識及服務任期)、協助董事會編制董事會技能表,並就任何為配 合公司的策略和目標而擬對董事會作出的變動提出建議; (b) 將按人選的長處,物色具備合適資格可擔任董事的人士,並在考慮人選時以客觀 條件充份顧及董事會成員多元化的禆益,挑選提名有關人士出任董事或就此向董 事會提供意見; (c) 審議董事會的工作表現,評核獨立非執行董事的獨立性及審閱獨立非執行董事各自 對獨立性所作的確認; (d) 就董事委任或重新委任以及董事(尤其是公司主席及行政總裁)繼任計劃向董事 會提出建議並就繼任計劃作定期審閱; (e) 支援公司定期評估董事會表 ...
安徽省市场监督管理局食品安全“你点我检”专项抽检信息通告(2025年第50期)
转自:安徽省市场监督管理局网站 近期,安徽省市场监督管理局通过网站、问卷调查等多种渠道,面向社会广泛征集消费者最关心的食品品种,根据线上投票靠前和问卷调查点选情况,组织 开展"你点我检"专项抽检,本次共抽检食用油、油脂及其制品、调味品、乳制品、饮料、方便食品、罐头、速冻食品、薯类和膨化食品、蔬菜制品、炒货食 品及坚果制品、蛋制品、糕点、豆制品、蜂产品、餐饮食品、食用农产品等16类食品200批次样品。根据食品安全国家标准检验和判定,其中抽样检验项目 合格样品197批次、不合格样品3批次(见附件)。 对抽检发现的不合格食品,属地市场监管部门已组织开展核查处置。 特此通告。 安徽省市场监督管理局 | 158 湖北尝鲜源农业科 | | 潜江市杨市街道办事处兴业大道3号 | 贵池区汇安生鲜超市 | 安徽 | 山椒小萝卜 | 130克/袋 | 2025/9/10 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 技有限公司 | | | 蚌埠市蚌山区兴中路 | | | | | | 159 云南百年传奇食品 | 科技有限公司 | 云南省昭通市盐津县中和镇工业产业园区6 ...
港股异动 | 乳业股早盘活跃 现代牧业(01117)涨超3% 对欧盟进口乳制品采取反补贴措施
智通财经网· 2025-12-23 01:54
中邮证券认为,政策端密集释放红利,国家医保局提出2026年力争分娩个人"无自付",叠加各地育儿补 贴发放,提振母婴乳制品长期需求;商务部等三部门发文加强商务与金融协同提振消费。历经前期产能 出清,奶牛存栏去化加速,原奶价格已筑底企稳,我们预计2026年将迎来供需拐点,奶价上行确定性增 强。 智通财经APP获悉,乳业股早盘活跃,截至发稿,现代牧业(01117)涨3.42%,报1.51港元;原生态牧业 (01431)涨2.88%,报0.25港元;蒙牛乳业(02319)涨1.5%,报15.56港元;中国飞鹤(06186)涨1.42%,报 4.28港元。 消息面上,商务部公告,自2025年12月23日起, 采取临时反补贴税保证金的形式对原产于欧盟的进口 相关乳制品实施临时反补贴措施。长江证券表示,随着国内相关产品需求增长,叠加国内奶价成本低 位,深加工产品的国产替代有望加速。 ...
乳业股早盘活跃 现代牧业涨超3% 对欧盟进口乳制品采取反补贴措施
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-12-23 01:50
消息面上,商务部公告,自2025年12月23日起,采取临时反补贴税保证金的形式对原产于欧盟的进口相 关乳制品实施临时反补贴措施。长江证券表示,随着国内相关产品需求增长,叠加国内奶价成本低位, 深加工产品的国产替代有望加速。 乳业股早盘活跃,截至发稿,现代牧业(01117)涨3.42%,报1.51港元;原生态牧业(01431)涨2.88%,报 0.25港元;蒙牛乳业(02319)涨1.5%,报15.56港元;中国飞鹤(06186)涨1.42%,报4.28港元。 中邮证券认为,政策端密集释放红利,国家医保局提出2026年力争分娩个人"无自付",叠加各地育儿补 贴发放,提振母婴乳制品长期需求;商务部等三部门发文加强商务与金融协同提振消费。历经前期产能 出清,奶牛存栏去化加速,原奶价格已筑底企稳,我们预计2026年将迎来供需拐点,奶价上行确定性增 强。 ...
野村东方国际:细看乳制品周期底部的反转可能性
野村· 2025-12-22 15:47
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the industry, with an upward adjustment in profit forecasts for key companies like Yili and Mengniu [13]. Core Insights - The dairy industry in China is experiencing a prolonged down cycle in raw milk prices due to rigid supply and weak demand, with prices expected to fall below production costs by July 2024 [1][2]. - The core dairy product categories have seen a decline in both volume and price since 2021, leading companies to adopt discount promotions to reduce inventory, further lowering raw milk purchase prices [1][4]. - The potential for a market reversal in raw milk prices may arise from the active elimination of high-yield farms and the loss of cost-effectiveness of imported bulk powder [5]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - From 2018 to 2021, China's milk production increased, with fresh milk prices growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.4%, while imported milk powder prices fell by 5% [1][2]. - The current supply-demand imbalance is exacerbated by high production costs and a significant number of farms facing prolonged losses [1][2]. Market Dynamics - The B-end dairy product consumption is growing rapidly, with fresh milk accounting for approximately 45% of this market, although it is currently dominated by imported brands [6]. - Domestic companies are accelerating their entry into the B-end market, benefiting from policy support and cost advantages [6]. Consumer Trends - There is a noticeable decline in demand for high-consumption categories like ambient milk and yogurt, with significant inventory pressures prompting companies to discount products [4][10]. - The trend towards low-temperature and health-oriented products is evident, with flavored milk beverages emerging as a new growth point [8][9]. Competitive Landscape - Yili has a stronger channel bargaining power compared to Mengniu, with a more efficient deep distribution model and a diversified strategy that has led to leading market shares in several segments [12]. - The report predicts stable performance for liquid milk over the next 2-3 years, while non-liquid dairy products are expected to achieve double-digit growth [13].
行业观察 | 从实验室到货架,蒙牛的全链路创新成效几何?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-12-22 12:46
Core Insights - The Chinese dairy industry is at a critical juncture of consolidation and value enhancement, facing challenges such as overcapacity in long-life milk and fluctuating raw milk prices, while high-quality dairy products are increasingly in demand [2][3] - Mengniu has developed an innovative transformation path focusing on "basic research—technology transfer—product implementation—value creation," which is essential for building a competitive edge in the industry [3][12] Industry Overview - The dairy market is experiencing a shift towards "pure fresh" products, with low-temperature fresh milk and high-end categories growing against the backdrop of declining demand for long-life products [2] - As of mid-2025, China's dairy product output is projected to be 14.33 million tons, showing a slight year-on-year decrease of 0.3%, indicating a recovery from a 2% decline in 2024 [2] Mengniu's Strategic Initiatives - Mengniu is implementing a "one body, two wings" strategy, focusing on core business while expanding into "nutrition health platforms" and "overseas platforms" [3] - The company has made significant advancements in research and development, including the approval of its proprietary probiotic strain Lc19 and breakthroughs in lactoferrin and human milk oligosaccharides (HMO) technology [3][8] Research and Development Achievements - Mengniu has established a proprietary resource library with over 18,000 strains, achieving a breakthrough in independent strain development in 2010 [6] - The probiotic strain Lc19 has been recognized internationally, contributing to global health management and marking a significant milestone for Chinese research in nutrition [7] Production and Innovation - Mengniu's smart factory in Ningxia has been recognized as a "lighthouse factory," showcasing advanced digital integration in production processes, significantly enhancing efficiency [10] - The company has achieved a 55% reduction in production cycles and a 32% decrease in operational costs through its digital transformation initiatives [11] Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Mengniu reported revenues of 41.567 billion yuan, with operating profits increasing by 13.4% year-on-year to 3.538 billion yuan, demonstrating resilience amid industry challenges [12] Product Development and Market Positioning - Mengniu has developed a diverse product matrix addressing various consumer needs, including specialized nutrition for seniors and active individuals, and has introduced high-end fresh milk products [12][13] - The company is also advancing in deep processing of dairy raw materials, launching products like mascarpone and lactoferrin, which enhance domestic supply capabilities and reduce reliance on imports [13] Future Outlook - Despite significant achievements, challenges remain in high-end strain development and reducing import dependency in key areas [14] - Mengniu aims to enhance the resilience of the dairy supply chain and improve product structures through its strategic initiatives during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [14]
格隆汇“科技赋能·资本破局”线上分享会暨“金格奖”——“年度ESG先锋奖(大市值)”奖项揭晓:爱尔眼科(300015.SZ)、贝壳(02423.HK/BEKE.US)、波司登(03998.HK)等10家企业上榜
Ge Long Hui· 2025-12-22 12:13
Group 1 - The "Annual ESG Pioneer Award (Large Market Capitalization)" recognizes companies that balance economic efficiency with social responsibility, highlighting their contributions to environmental, social, and governance (ESG) practices [1] - Ten companies, including Aier Eye Hospital, Beike, Bosideng, Mengniu Dairy, CATL, Tongcheng Travel, Weichai Power, China Feihe, China State Construction International, and Sinotruk, received the award [1] - The evaluation process involved quantitative data analysis and expert review to determine the final results of the award [1] Group 2 - The "Golden Award" aims to create a reference list of the most valuable listed companies and unicorns in the investment community, covering all listed companies on major exchanges including HKEX, SSE, SZSE, NYSE, and NASDAQ [2]
格隆汇“科技赋能·资本破局”线上分享会暨“金格奖”——“年度ESG先锋奖(大市值)”奖项揭晓:爱尔眼科(300015.SZ)、贝壳(02423.HK/B...
Ge Long Hui· 2025-12-22 08:50
Core Insights - The "Golden Award" annual excellence company selection by Gelonghui will reveal a list of notable companies, highlighting those recognized for their contributions to ESG (Environmental, Social, Governance) principles [1][2] Group 1: Award Winners - Ten companies have been awarded the "Annual ESG Pioneer Award (Large Market Capitalization)," including Aier Eye Hospital, Beike, Bosideng, Mengniu Dairy, CATL, Tongcheng Travel, Weichai Power, China Feihe, China State Construction International, and Sinotruk [1] - The award aims to identify companies that balance economic efficiency with social responsibility, recognizing their outstanding contributions to promoting ESG concepts and pursuing high-quality sustainable development [1] Group 2: Evaluation Process - The selection process for the awards involved quantitative data analysis and evaluation by an expert review panel to determine the final results [1] - The "Golden Award" aims to create a reference list of the most valuable listed companies and unicorns in the investment community, covering all listed companies on major exchanges including the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, Shanghai Stock Exchange, Shenzhen Stock Exchange, New York Stock Exchange, and NASDAQ [2]