Summary of Conference Call Notes Company Overview - The company discussed is **智谱 (Zhipu)**, a leading provider of large model services in China, focusing on AI model commercialization and deployment [1][2]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Recent Performance**: The company experienced a significant increase in its stock price, rising by **36%** due to successful commercialization efforts of its AI models, particularly the enhancements made to the **Claude** model by **Anthropic** [1][2]. - **Revenue Growth**: From **2022 to 2024**, the company's revenue is projected to grow from **60 million CNY** to **310 million CNY**, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over **130%**. This growth is attributed to business expansion and increased sales from localized and cloud deployments [2]. - **First Half of 2025**: The company reported a revenue of **190 million CNY** in the first half of 2025, indicating continued growth despite a high base [2]. Business Model and Deployment - **Revenue Composition**: The majority of the company's revenue comes from localized deployments, which account for over **80%** of total revenue. The internet and technology sectors represent a significant portion of the client base, maintaining over **50%** share from **2022 to 2024** [3]. - **Model Matrix**: The company has developed a comprehensive model product matrix, including multi-modal, agent, and coding capabilities, which supports its commercial foundation [2]. Research and Development - **Investment in R&D**: The company's R&D expenses increased dramatically from **8 million CNY** in 2022 to **1.6 billion CNY** in the first half of 2025, with a significant portion attributed to computing service fees, which rose from **2 million CNY** to **1.15 billion CNY** during the same period [4][5]. - **Future Efficiency**: As computing costs decrease and model architecture improves, the company anticipates a rapid decline in R&D expense ratios [5]. Financial Projections and Valuation - **Revenue Forecast**: Projected revenues for 2025-2027 are **740 million CNY**, **1.53 billion CNY**, and **2.88 billion CNY**, with expected growth rates of **138.1%**, **106.2%**, and **87.9%** respectively [5]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: Expected EPS for 2025-2027 are **-7.79 CNY**, **-8.14 CNY**, and **-7.26 CNY** [5]. - **Valuation**: Based on comparisons with **商汤 (SenseTime)** and **MiniMax**, the company is assigned a **70x PS** valuation for 2026, leading to a target share price of **273.22 HKD**, with a rating of "Buy" [5]. Risk Factors - **Client Payment Willingness**: There is a risk regarding the willingness and ability of downstream enterprise clients to pay for AI large models [5]. - **R&D Investment Risks**: The company faces risks related to high R&D investments and the conversion of these investments into tangible results [5]. - **Increased Competition**: The potential for intensified competition from tech giants in the AI large model sector poses a risk to the company's market position [5].

Company and Industry Summary Company: 智谱 (02513.HK) Key Points 1. **Model Iteration and Launch** 智谱 recently released and open-sourced GLM-4.7-Flash, which replaces GLM-4.5-Flash. The model is positioned for "lightweight deployment + strong inference/coding" [1] 2. **PonyAlpha Testing and Feedback** OpenRouter launched the stealth model PonyAlpha on February 6, which supports 200K context. Feedback from the overseas community highlights its outstanding capabilities in "coding/agentic workflows," suggesting it may be the next generation of GLM [1] 3. **Developer Market Potential** An official report indicates that the number of software developers in China has surpassed 9.4 million. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology disclosed that software business revenue is projected to reach 137.276 billion yuan (approximately 13.7 trillion yuan) in 2024. Even a single-digit penetration of AI programming assistants/agents in the toolchain corresponds to a potential market space in the hundreds of billions [2] 4. **Client Base and Revenue Drivers** According to the company's prospectus, it serves over 8,000 institutional clients. Nine out of the top ten internet companies in China are using GLM models, and the quality of government and enterprise clients is high, indicating strong customer retention and willingness to pay [2] 5. **Cloud Business Revenue and Profitability** The company's cloud business revenue and gross profit are expected to continue to show elasticity as model capabilities improve [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the strong performance of domestic large model concept stocks, particularly Zhiyu (02513) and MINIMAX-WP (00100), which have seen significant price increases of 6.21% and 6.6% respectively [1] - The launch of the anonymous model "Pony Alpha" by OpenRouter on February 6 has garnered attention due to its advanced coding capabilities and optimization for intelligent workflows, leading to speculation that it is a precursor to Zhiyu's upcoming GLM-5 model [1] - Zhiyu's Chief Scientist, Tang Jie, indicated in an internal letter on January 8 that a new generation model, GLM-5, is set to be released soon, with a confirmation of this on February 2 via social media [1] Group 2 - Guolian Minsheng Securities published a report stating that large models are evolving from "chat tools" to "autonomous employees" in the Agent era, suggesting that companies with core algorithms and industry interfaces will benefit significantly from the trend towards intelligent automation [1] - The report recommends focusing on the recently listed "large model twins," MiniMax-WP and Zhiyu, as they represent the "brain" of the native Agent ecosystem, indicating their high scarcity and potential for growth [1]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic large model concept stocks continue to show strong performance, with notable increases in share prices for companies like Zhiyu (02513) and MINIMAX-WP (00100) following the launch of a new model by OpenRouter, which is speculated to be a precursor to Zhiyu's upcoming GLM-5 model [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Zhiyu (02513) shares rose by 6.21%, reaching 294 HKD [1] - MINIMAX-WP (00100) shares increased by 6.6%, reaching 549 HKD [1] Group 2: Industry Developments - OpenRouter launched an anonymous model named "Pony Alpha" on February 6, which has garnered attention for its strong coding capabilities and optimization for intelligent workflows [1] - The model is speculated to be a preview of Zhiyu's upcoming GLM-5, which was hinted at by Zhiyu's chief scientist, Tang Jie, in an internal communication on January 8 [1] - Tang Jie confirmed on February 2 via social media that Zhiyu will soon release GLM-5 [1] Group 3: Market Insights - Guolian Minsheng Securities published a report indicating that large models are evolving from "chat tools" to "autonomous employees" in the Agent era [1] - Companies that master core algorithms and industry interfaces are expected to benefit significantly from the intelligence-driven market [1] - The report recommends focusing on the recently listed "large model twins," MiniMax-WP and Zhiyu, as they represent a highly scarce resource in the native Agent ecosystem [1]

Group 1 - OpenRouter has launched an anonymous model named "Pony Alpha," which has gained significant attention in the developer community due to its strong coding capabilities and optimization for agent workflows [1][2] - Pony Alpha is described as a next-generation foundational model excelling in programming, reasoning, and role-playing, with high accuracy in tool invocation [2] - There is speculation that Pony Alpha may originate from a Chinese company, with potential candidates being Zhizhu GLM-5 or DeepSeek-V4, based on hints from OpenRouter's partner Kilo Code [2] Group 2 - The release of Pony Alpha aligns with the upcoming launch of Zhizhu's new generation model GLM-5, which has been hinted at by the company's chief scientist [2][3]

Group 1 - The stock price of Zhiyuan (2513.HK) surged by 36.22% on February 9, reaching a market capitalization of over HKD 120 billion, setting a new historical high [2] - OpenRouter has launched an anonymous model named "Pony Alpha," which has gained significant attention in the developer community due to its strong coding capabilities and optimization for agent workflows [2] - Pony Alpha is described as a next-generation foundational model with strong performance in programming, reasoning, and role-playing, featuring high accuracy in tool invocation [2] Group 2 - There is speculation that Pony Alpha may originate from a Chinese company, with two potential candidates identified: Zhiyuan's GLM-5 or DeepSeek-V4 [2] - On January 8, the first day of Zhiyuan's listing, the company's chief scientist, Tang Jie, hinted at the upcoming release of the new model GLM-5 [2] - On February 2, Tang Jie confirmed via social media that Zhiyuan would soon release GLM-5 [2]

Market Overview - The Dow Jones Industrial Average is projected to reach 100,000 points by January 2029, as stated by Trump, with the index recently surpassing 50,000 points for the first time [1] - The Hong Kong stock market rebounded significantly, closing up 1.76%, while the Nikkei 225 and KOSPI indices rose by 3.89% and 4.10%, respectively [1] - The Japanese ruling coalition secured a majority in the recent elections, with promises to stimulate the economy, leading to a surge in the Japanese stock market [1] Gold and Mining Stocks - Gold stocks continued to rebound, with the WanGuo Gold Group rising over 8% [2] - Zijin Mining announced a three-year production plan aiming to rank among the top three globally in copper and gold production by 2028, resulting in a stock increase of over 5% [2] AI and Technology Sector - Major tech companies including Meta, Amazon, Google, and Microsoft are expected to have a combined capital expenditure of $660 billion this year [3] - Nvidia is anticipated to report strong earnings, with Goldman Sachs raising its price target to $250, indicating a potential 35% upside from last week's closing price [2][3] Renewable Energy and Power Generation - North America is shifting investments in electricity generation from gas turbines to gas internal combustion engines and SOFCs, with stocks like Eagle Precision and Dongfang Electric seeing significant gains [4] - Dongfang Electric announced the commissioning of Ethiopia's largest wind power project, contributing to a stock increase of over 14% [4] AI Applications and Content Creation - ByteDance launched the Seedance 2.0 video generation model, which can create high-quality videos in 60 seconds, positively impacting related stocks like IP reserve holder Yuedong Group, which rose nearly 10% [5] - The copyright technology service provider for short dramas, Fubo Group, also saw a stock increase of over 7% [5] Real Estate Sector - Major real estate companies are undergoing organizational restructuring to adapt to market conditions, with firms like China Overseas Development and China Resources Land implementing significant changes [8] - These strategic adjustments are expected to enhance performance and improve valuations in the sector [8] Entertainment Sector - Cat's Eye Entertainment reported that the pre-sale box office for the 2026 Spring Festival exceeded 60 million yuan, with expectations for strong performance in upcoming films [9] - The company is heavily involved in the production and promotion of major films, which is likely to boost its revenue [9][10]

2月9日，资本市场对国产大模型的热情被一则神秘消息点燃，其中智谱（02513）盘中一度大涨超 40%，成交量显著放大。这场突如其来的市场躁动，源于日前全球模型服务平台OpenRouter上悄然现身 的一款代号为"Pony Alpha"的匿名模型。 自2月6日在OpenRouter平台低调上线以来，该模型凭借卓越的编程能力、长上下文理解与高精度工具调 用表现，迅速在开发者社区引发热议，并被广泛猜测为智谱即将发布的GLM-5的预演版本。 匿名模型引爆身份猜想 尽管OpenRouter将提供方标注为"Stealth"（隐身模式），同时未透露任何架构、参数量或实验室信息， 但这并未阻止全球技术社区的"侦查"。模型上线数小时内，关于其身份的猜测便已沸沸扬扬。X知名博 主、Replit CEO、Abacus.AI CEO等行业人士纷纷加入猜测阵营，而在此之中，"国产大模型"的声音逐 渐获得最多共鸣，"可能是智谱GLM新模型"的观点也受到多数支持。 在智通财经APP看来，这种猜测并非空穴来风，而是建立在多重技术逻辑与行业线索的交织之上。 首先，Pony Alpha技术特性高度吻合智谱公开的技术路线。Pony Alpha被官 ...

新浪科技讯 2月9日下午消息，智谱今日股价大涨，收涨近36.22%，报278.8港元。消息面上，2月6日， 全球模型服务平台OpenRouter上线搜索排名第一的匿名模型"Pony Alpha"因其强大的编码能力及针对智 能体工作流的深度优化，引发开发者社区关注，爆火海外社区。 新浪科技讯 2月9日下午消息，智谱今日股价大涨，收涨近36.22%，报278.8港元。消息面上，2月6日， 全球模型服务平台OpenRouter上线搜索排名第一的匿名模型"Pony Alpha"因其强大的编码能力及针对智 能体工作流的深度优化，引发开发者社区关注，爆火海外社区。 据多位硅谷科技企业家及知情人士分析，该模型或为智谱即将发布的新一代模型GLM-5，该模型被描 述为"前沿基础模型"，在编程、智能体工作流、推理及角色扮演方面表现强劲，特别强调其"极高的工 具调用准确率"。这一特性使其在AI Agent（智能体）应用场景中展现出明显优势——开发者可通过 Claude Code等工具调用该模型，实现长达数小时的复杂项目开发。与传统聊天机器人不同，Agentic工 作流需要模型进行多轮工具调用、长上下文记忆与复杂任务规划，这将导致单 ...

Core Viewpoint - The emergence of the anonymous model "Pony Alpha" on the OpenRouter platform has sparked significant interest in the domestic large model sector, particularly regarding its potential connection to Zhipu's upcoming GLM-5 model [1][2]. Group 1: Model Characteristics and Speculations - Pony Alpha exhibits advanced programming capabilities, long-context understanding, and high precision in tool invocation, aligning with Zhipu's strategic focus on enhancing code generation and agent capabilities [2][3]. - The model's identity has been widely speculated within the tech community, with many believing it to be a pre-release version of Zhipu's GLM-5, supported by various industry experts [1][2]. Group 2: Commercialization and Market Strategy - Zhipu has developed a comprehensive technology matrix centered around its self-developed GLM base model, covering multimodal, agent, and code generation directions, with diverse monetization paths through API services and localized deployments [4]. - The company adopts an "open ecosystem + tiered pricing" model, providing free API quotas to attract small and medium enterprises and independent developers, which accelerates ecosystem expansion despite short-term revenue sacrifices [4]. Group 3: Future Growth and Market Impact - If Pony Alpha is indeed a precursor to GLM-5, it signifies not only a technical breakthrough but also a solid foundation for commercialization, with expectations of rapid revenue growth from 2025 to 2027 as model capabilities and customer base expand [6]. - The market's enthusiastic response to Pony Alpha reflects a pre-pricing of anticipated advancements in Zhipu's technology and its potential to reshape the domestic large model landscape and establish a unique position in the global AI infrastructure [7].