摩根大通分析师首次覆盖MiniMax与智谱，给予"超配"评级，称其是把握下一波全球人工智能价值创造 浪潮的首选标的。MiniMax股价在香港一度上涨10.7%，智谱上涨逾20%。 MiniMax目前超过70%的营收来自海外市场，两家公司都在随着全球开发者的采用而迅速扩展其API业 务。 "尽管两家公司自近期上市以来股价已大幅上涨，投资者仍应参与这一领域的投资，"Olivia Xu等分析师 在报告中写道。 智谱股价自1月初首次公开募股以来已上涨超过150%，最高时达到322港元。 自1月初上市以来，MiniMax股价已上涨超过230%，最高时达到560港元。 MiniMax和智谱是两家最具辨识度的独立大型语言模型开发者，其全球业务布局正在加速扩张。 自1月初上市以来，MiniMax股价已上涨超过230%，最高时达到560港元。 "这不仅能使营收来源多元化，提高利润率，还能彰显全球竞争力"。 摩根大通预计MiniMax的营收复合年增长率（预测期2026-2030年）为138%，并有望于2029年实现盈亏 平衡；预计智谱的营收复合年增长率（预测期2026-2030年）为127%，也有望于2029年实现盈利。 智谱目 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the strong performance of AI concept stocks in the Hong Kong market, particularly the significant rise of Zhiyuan (2513.HK), which saw a 36% increase yesterday and over 20% today, reaching a new high of 333 HKD and a market capitalization nearing 150 billion HKD [1] - Zhiyuan has been active in the large model sector, with its hybrid thinking model GLM-4.7-Flash achieving over 1 million downloads on Hugging Face within two weeks of its release [1] - The recent emergence of an anonymous domestic model named Pony Alpha has sparked market speculation, with its strong coding capabilities and deep optimization for intelligent agent workflows drawing attention from the developer community [1] Group 2 - Pony Alpha, launched by OpenRouter, is described as a "cutting-edge foundational model" with impressive performance in programming, intelligent agent workflows, reasoning, and role-playing, particularly noted for its high accuracy in tool invocation [1] - Developers have reported successful use cases with Pony Alpha, including a project that generated 170KB of pure Java code for a Minecraft project in approximately 2 hours, with output quality rated as "beyond expectations" [1] - Additional tests indicate that Pony Alpha demonstrates a level of quality comparable to Claude Opus 4.5 in detail-oriented tasks such as SVG generation [1]

Company and Industry Summary Company: 智谱 (Zhipu) Key Points - **Stock Performance**: 智谱's stock surged by 36%, driven by positive market sentiment and sell-side recommendations [1] - **Business Growth**: Revenue is projected to grow rapidly from 60 million CNY in 2022 to 310 million CNY in 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 130% due to business expansion and increased sales from localized and cloud deployments [2] - **Revenue Composition**: The majority of the company's revenue comes from localized deployments, with internet industry clients accounting for over 80% of this segment [3] - **R&D Investment**: The company has significantly increased its R&D expenses from 80 million CNY in 2022 to 1.6 billion CNY in the first half of 2025, with a substantial portion attributed to computing service fees [4][5] - **Profitability Forecast**: Expected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected at 740 million CNY, 1.53 billion CNY, and 2.88 billion CNY, with growth rates of 138.1%, 106.2%, and 87.9% respectively. EPS is forecasted to be -7.79 CNY, -8.14 CNY, and -7.26 CNY for the same years [5] - **Valuation**: Based on comparisons with competitors like 商汤 (SenseTime) and MiniMax, a 70x price-to-sales (PS) valuation for 2026 suggests a fair value of 273.22 HKD per share, with a recommendation to "buy" [5] - **Risks**: Potential risks include low willingness and ability of downstream clients to pay for AI models, high R&D costs with uncertain conversion to results, and increased competition from tech giants in the AI model sector [5] Additional Insights - **Model Matrix**: 智谱 has established a comprehensive model product matrix centered around its self-developed GLM base model, which includes multi-modal, agent, and coding capabilities, providing a solid foundation for commercialization [1] - **Client Base**: The company’s client base is heavily concentrated in the internet and technology sectors, maintaining a stable share of over 50% from 2022 to 2024 [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant rise in Hong Kong's artificial intelligence stocks, indicating a positive market trend in this sector [2] - Cloud Wisdom (云知声) saw an increase of over 13%, reflecting strong investor interest and confidence in its performance [2] - Other companies such as Reading Group (阅文集团), Zhiyun (智谱), and MINIMAX-WP experienced gains exceeding 6%, showcasing a broader rally in AI-related stocks [2] - Companies like Zhihu (知乎), Kuaishou (快手), and Horizon Robotics (地平线机器人) also reported increases of over 4%, further emphasizing the momentum in the AI market [2]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Company Overview - The company discussed is **智谱 (Zhipu)**, a leading provider of large model services in China, focusing on AI model commercialization and deployment [1][2]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Recent Performance**: The company experienced a significant increase in its stock price, rising by **36%** due to successful commercialization efforts of its AI models, particularly the enhancements made to the **Claude** model by **Anthropic** [1][2]. - **Revenue Growth**: From **2022 to 2024**, the company's revenue is projected to grow from **60 million CNY** to **310 million CNY**, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over **130%**. This growth is attributed to business expansion and increased sales from localized and cloud deployments [2]. - **First Half of 2025**: The company reported a revenue of **190 million CNY** in the first half of 2025, indicating continued growth despite a high base [2]. Business Model and Deployment - **Revenue Composition**: The majority of the company's revenue comes from localized deployments, which account for over **80%** of total revenue. The internet and technology sectors represent a significant portion of the client base, maintaining over **50%** share from **2022 to 2024** [3]. - **Model Matrix**: The company has developed a comprehensive model product matrix, including multi-modal, agent, and coding capabilities, which supports its commercial foundation [2]. Research and Development - **Investment in R&D**: The company's R&D expenses increased dramatically from **8 million CNY** in 2022 to **1.6 billion CNY** in the first half of 2025, with a significant portion attributed to computing service fees, which rose from **2 million CNY** to **1.15 billion CNY** during the same period [4][5]. - **Future Efficiency**: As computing costs decrease and model architecture improves, the company anticipates a rapid decline in R&D expense ratios [5]. Financial Projections and Valuation - **Revenue Forecast**: Projected revenues for 2025-2027 are **740 million CNY**, **1.53 billion CNY**, and **2.88 billion CNY**, with expected growth rates of **138.1%**, **106.2%**, and **87.9%** respectively [5]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: Expected EPS for 2025-2027 are **-7.79 CNY**, **-8.14 CNY**, and **-7.26 CNY** [5]. - **Valuation**: Based on comparisons with **商汤 (SenseTime)** and **MiniMax**, the company is assigned a **70x PS** valuation for 2026, leading to a target share price of **273.22 HKD**, with a rating of "Buy" [5]. Risk Factors - **Client Payment Willingness**: There is a risk regarding the willingness and ability of downstream enterprise clients to pay for AI large models [5]. - **R&D Investment Risks**: The company faces risks related to high R&D investments and the conversion of these investments into tangible results [5]. - **Increased Competition**: The potential for intensified competition from tech giants in the AI large model sector poses a risk to the company's market position [5].

Company and Industry Summary Company: 智谱 (02513.HK) Key Points 1. **Model Iteration and Launch** 智谱 recently released and open-sourced GLM-4.7-Flash, which replaces GLM-4.5-Flash. The model is positioned for "lightweight deployment + strong inference/coding" [1] 2. **PonyAlpha Testing and Feedback** OpenRouter launched the stealth model PonyAlpha on February 6, which supports 200K context. Feedback from the overseas community highlights its outstanding capabilities in "coding/agentic workflows," suggesting it may be the next generation of GLM [1] 3. **Developer Market Potential** An official report indicates that the number of software developers in China has surpassed 9.4 million. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology disclosed that software business revenue is projected to reach 137.276 billion yuan (approximately 13.7 trillion yuan) in 2024. Even a single-digit penetration of AI programming assistants/agents in the toolchain corresponds to a potential market space in the hundreds of billions [2] 4. **Client Base and Revenue Drivers** According to the company's prospectus, it serves over 8,000 institutional clients. Nine out of the top ten internet companies in China are using GLM models, and the quality of government and enterprise clients is high, indicating strong customer retention and willingness to pay [2] 5. **Cloud Business Revenue and Profitability** The company's cloud business revenue and gross profit are expected to continue to show elasticity as model capabilities improve [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the strong performance of domestic large model concept stocks, particularly Zhiyu (02513) and MINIMAX-WP (00100), which have seen significant price increases of 6.21% and 6.6% respectively [1] - The launch of the anonymous model "Pony Alpha" by OpenRouter on February 6 has garnered attention due to its advanced coding capabilities and optimization for intelligent workflows, leading to speculation that it is a precursor to Zhiyu's upcoming GLM-5 model [1] - Zhiyu's Chief Scientist, Tang Jie, indicated in an internal letter on January 8 that a new generation model, GLM-5, is set to be released soon, with a confirmation of this on February 2 via social media [1] Group 2 - Guolian Minsheng Securities published a report stating that large models are evolving from "chat tools" to "autonomous employees" in the Agent era, suggesting that companies with core algorithms and industry interfaces will benefit significantly from the trend towards intelligent automation [1] - The report recommends focusing on the recently listed "large model twins," MiniMax-WP and Zhiyu, as they represent the "brain" of the native Agent ecosystem, indicating their high scarcity and potential for growth [1]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic large model concept stocks continue to show strong performance, with notable increases in share prices for companies like Zhiyu (02513) and MINIMAX-WP (00100) following the launch of a new model by OpenRouter, which is speculated to be a precursor to Zhiyu's upcoming GLM-5 model [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Zhiyu (02513) shares rose by 6.21%, reaching 294 HKD [1] - MINIMAX-WP (00100) shares increased by 6.6%, reaching 549 HKD [1] Group 2: Industry Developments - OpenRouter launched an anonymous model named "Pony Alpha" on February 6, which has garnered attention for its strong coding capabilities and optimization for intelligent workflows [1] - The model is speculated to be a preview of Zhiyu's upcoming GLM-5, which was hinted at by Zhiyu's chief scientist, Tang Jie, in an internal communication on January 8 [1] - Tang Jie confirmed on February 2 via social media that Zhiyu will soon release GLM-5 [1] Group 3: Market Insights - Guolian Minsheng Securities published a report indicating that large models are evolving from "chat tools" to "autonomous employees" in the Agent era [1] - Companies that master core algorithms and industry interfaces are expected to benefit significantly from the intelligence-driven market [1] - The report recommends focusing on the recently listed "large model twins," MiniMax-WP and Zhiyu, as they represent a highly scarce resource in the native Agent ecosystem [1]

Group 1 - OpenRouter has launched an anonymous model named "Pony Alpha," which has gained significant attention in the developer community due to its strong coding capabilities and optimization for agent workflows [1][2] - Pony Alpha is described as a next-generation foundational model excelling in programming, reasoning, and role-playing, with high accuracy in tool invocation [2] - There is speculation that Pony Alpha may originate from a Chinese company, with potential candidates being Zhizhu GLM-5 or DeepSeek-V4, based on hints from OpenRouter's partner Kilo Code [2] Group 2 - The release of Pony Alpha aligns with the upcoming launch of Zhizhu's new generation model GLM-5, which has been hinted at by the company's chief scientist [2][3]

Group 1 - The stock price of Zhiyuan (2513.HK) surged by 36.22% on February 9, reaching a market capitalization of over HKD 120 billion, setting a new historical high [2] - OpenRouter has launched an anonymous model named "Pony Alpha," which has gained significant attention in the developer community due to its strong coding capabilities and optimization for agent workflows [2] - Pony Alpha is described as a next-generation foundational model with strong performance in programming, reasoning, and role-playing, featuring high accuracy in tool invocation [2] Group 2 - There is speculation that Pony Alpha may originate from a Chinese company, with two potential candidates identified: Zhiyuan's GLM-5 or DeepSeek-V4 [2] - On January 8, the first day of Zhiyuan's listing, the company's chief scientist, Tang Jie, hinted at the upcoming release of the new model GLM-5 [2] - On February 2, Tang Jie confirmed via social media that Zhiyuan would soon release GLM-5 [2]