研究报告 Research Report 28 Aug 2024 京东物流 JD Logistics (2618 HK) 24Q2 降本增效成果显著，利润率提升超预期 Q2 2024 Cost Reduction and Efficiency Gains Boost Profit Margins Beyond Expectations [Table_yemei 观点聚焦 1] Investment Focus | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------------|---------------|------------------------|------------------| | [Table_Info] 维持优于大市 | | | | | 评级 | | 优于大市 | OUTPERFORM | | 现价 | | | HK$9.37 | | 目标价 | | | HK$14.61 | | HTI ESG | | | 5.0-5.0-5.0 | | | | | | | 市值 | | HK$62.09bn / US$7.96bn | | | 日交易 ...

2024 年 08 月 20 日 公司研究 评级：增持(维持) 研究所： 证券分析师： 祝玉波 S0350523120005 zhouyb01@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 盈利能力大幅改善，重点关注外单成长性兑现 ——京东物流（02618）2024 半年度业绩点评 事件: 最近一年走势 相对恒生指数表现 2024/08/20 表现 1M 3M 12M 京东物流 19.5% -1.6% -7.6% 恒生指数 0.5% -10.8% -2.4% | --- | --- | |------------------------|------------| | 市场数据 | 2024/08/20 | | 当前价格（港元） | 9.74 | | 52 周价格区间（港元） | 6.61-11.08 | | 总市值（百万港元） | 64,538.04 | | 流通市值（百万港元） | 64,538.04 | | 总股本（万股） | 662,608.18 | | 流通股本（万股） | 662,608.18 | | 日均成交额（百万港元） | 163.13 | | 近一月换手（%） | 2.13 | 相关 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for JD Logistics (02618 HK) [17][22] Core Views - JD Logistics achieved revenue of 863 45 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 11 0%, with adjusted net profit reaching 31 2 billion yuan, significantly higher than the 1 14 billion yuan in the same period last year [17] - The company's Q2 adjusted net profit was 24 6 billion yuan, a 197% increase compared to 8 3 billion yuan in Q2 2023 [17] - External customer revenue grew by 11 2%, with revenue from integrated supply chain customers increasing by 2 7% and other external customer revenue rising by 14 5% [17] - Cost control measures were effective, with Q2 costs increasing by only 3 5%, leading to a gross profit increase from 3 4 billion yuan to 5 3 billion yuan and a gross margin improvement from 8 3% to 11 9% [17] Revenue Breakdown - Revenue from JD Group was 264 billion yuan, up 10 7%, while external customer revenue was 599 billion yuan, up 11 2% [17] - Integrated supply chain customer revenue was 154 billion yuan, with the number of customers increasing by 5 9% to 64,400, although average revenue per customer decreased slightly from 247,000 yuan to 239,000 yuan [17] - Revenue from other external customers was 445 billion yuan, with Deppon Logistics, a subsidiary, contributing 184 billion yuan, up 17 5% [17] Cost Control and Efficiency - Q2 cost growth was limited to 3 5%, primarily due to a reduction in outsourcing costs from 14 5 billion yuan to 14 0 billion yuan [17] - Employee compensation increased by 13 1% to 15 1 billion yuan, while other costs such as rent and depreciation remained stable [17] - Efficiency improvements were driven by optimized warehouse network layout, enhanced automation, and better vehicle scheduling through algorithmic optimization [17] Financial Projections - The report forecasts JD Logistics' net profit under international financial reporting standards to be 3 59 billion yuan in 2024, 4 39 billion yuan in 2025, and 5 19 billion yuan in 2026 [17] - Revenue growth is expected to be 12 24% in 2024, 9 36% in 2025, and 8 38% in 2026 [19] - Net profit growth is projected at 483 41% in 2024, 22 20% in 2025, and 18 25% in 2026 [19] Valuation Metrics - The PE ratio is expected to decrease from 88 14 in 2023 to 16 23 in 2024, 13 28 in 2025, and 11 23 in 2026 [19] - The PB ratio is projected to decline from 1 21 in 2023 to 1 13 in 2024, 1 05 in 2025, and 0 97 in 2026 [19] Industry Context - The logistics and transportation industry is expected to see marginal improvements, with high-dividend stocks likely to remain strong [24] - The report highlights the importance of price and service differentiation in the competitive logistics market [24]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a net profit of 46 billion, 52 billion, and 59 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [2]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 863 million in H1 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 11%, with a net profit of 22.6 million, marking a turnaround from losses [2]. - The growth in revenue is primarily driven by the increase in business volume from express and freight services, with significant contributions from integrated supply chain clients [2]. - Cost control measures have led to improved profit margins, with Q2 2024 gross profit reaching 52.5 million, a 55% increase year-on-year, and a net profit margin of 4.6% [2]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2022 was 137,402 million, projected to grow to 205,160 million by 2026, with a growth rate of 31.24% in 2022 and a decline to 6.01% by 2026 [1]. - The net profit for 2022 was -1,397 million, expected to rise to 5,904 million by 2026, with a significant growth rate of 639.98% in 2024 [1]. - The diluted earnings per share (EPS) improved from -0.21 in 2022 to 0.89 in 2026 [1]. - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to increase from -3.00% in 2022 to 9.24% in 2026 [1]. Operational Analysis - The company has established a robust logistics infrastructure, including over 32 million square meters of warehouse space and a fleet of approximately 50,000 self-operated transport vehicles [2]. - The number of external integrated supply chain clients increased by 11.2% to 57,889, indicating a growing customer base [2]. - The company’s cost management strategies have resulted in a stable increase in operating efficiency, with employee compensation being the primary cost driver [2].

业绩简评 2024 年 8 月 15 日，京东物流发布 2024 年半年度财务信息。2024H1 公司实现营收 863 亿元，同比增长 11%；归母净利润为 22.6 亿元， 同比扭亏为盈。其中 2024Q2 公司实现营收 442 亿元，同比增长 7.7%；归母净利润为 20.3 亿元，同比增长 476%。 经营分析 其他客户收入增速较快，快递快运服务业务量增长为主因。2024 Q2 公司收入达 442 亿元，同比增长 7.7%，分客户看：（1）一体化 供应链客户收入为 213 亿元，同比增长 4.4%，其中来自京东集团 的内部一体化供应链收入为 135 亿元，同比增长 7%；外部一体化 供应链客户收入为 77.7 亿元，同比增长 0.2%，其中外部一体化客 户 ARPC 同比增长下降 9.9%至 13.4 万元，外部一体化供应链客户 数量同比增长 11.2%至 57889 名；（2）其他客户收入为 229 亿元， 同比增长 11%，主要系快递快运服务的业务量增加。 成本管控效果显现，利润率同比改善。2024Q2 公司营业成本为 390 亿元，同比仅增长 3.5%，主要是由于：（1）产品及网络结构的优 化；（ ...

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating of JD Logistics (2618 HK) to "Buy" [5][6][16] Core Insights - JD Logistics reported a significant improvement in profits for Q2 2024, with a notable increase in gross margin, reflecting enhanced operational efficiency. The revenue growth is expected to be in line with current forecasts, and the company's valuation remains below the industry average [5][6] - The target price has been raised to HKD 11.3 based on a 13x P/E ratio for 2024, indicating a potential upside of 45.2% from the current price [5][16] Revenue and Profit Summary - For Q2 2024, total revenue reached RMB 44.2 billion, an 8% year-on-year increase, with adjusted net profit soaring to RMB 2.5 billion, nearly doubling from the previous year, achieving a net profit margin of 5.6%, the highest since the company went public [5][7][11] - The gross profit margin improved by 3.6 percentage points, primarily due to a reduction in outsourcing costs as a percentage of revenue [5][8] Financial Forecast Adjustments - The revenue forecast for 2024 has been slightly adjusted to reflect an 8% year-on-year growth, while the adjusted net profit forecast has been increased by 16%, resulting in a profit margin of 2.8% [5][12] - The company aims to continue optimizing its network structure and enhancing technological capabilities to achieve steady profit growth [5][12] Financial Performance Metrics - The report highlights that JD Logistics' current price corresponds to a 10x P/E ratio for 2024, which is below the industry average, reinforcing the rationale for the upgraded rating and target price [5][12][18] - The financial data indicates a projected revenue of RMB 180.6 billion for 2024, with a gross profit of RMB 16.8 billion and a net profit of RMB 3.3 billion [18][19]

Revenue and Profit Growth - Total revenue for the first half of 2024 reached RMB 86.3 billion, a year-on-year increase of 11.0%[5] - External customer revenue for the first half of 2024 was RMB 59.9 billion, accounting for 69.4% of total revenue, a year-on-year increase of 11.2%[5] - Non-IFRS profit for the first half of 2024 was RMB 3.1 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2,631.2%[6] - Gross profit for the first half of 2024 was RMB 8.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of 68.7%[3] - Non-IFRS EBITDA for the first half of 2024 was RMB 9.3 billion, a year-on-year increase of 60.0%[3] - Non-IFRS EBITDA margin for the first half of 2024 was 10.8%, an increase of 3.3 percentage points year-on-year[3] - Total revenue increased by 7.7% YoY to RMB 44.2 billion for the three months ended June 30, 2024, compared to RMB 41.0 billion in the same period in 2023[28] - Revenue from integrated supply chain customers increased by 4.4% YoY to RMB 21.3 billion for the three months ended June 30, 2024[29] - Revenue from other customers increased by 11.0% YoY to RMB 22.9 billion for the three months ended June 30, 2024[29] - Revenue from JD Group accounted for 30.6% of total revenue, amounting to RMB 13.5 billion for the three months ended June 30, 2024[30] - Revenue from other sources (including third-party merchants on JD Group's platform) accounted for 69.4% of total revenue, amounting to RMB 30.7 billion for the three months ended June 30, 2024[30] - Total revenue increased by 11.0% from RMB 77.8 billion in H1 2023 to RMB 86.3 billion in H1 2024, driven by growth in both integrated supply chain and other customer segments[37] - Revenue from integrated supply chain customers grew by 7.6% from RMB 38.9 billion in H1 2023 to RMB 41.8 billion in H1 2024, with the number of external integrated supply chain customers increasing from 60,792 to 64,379[38] - Revenue from other customers increased by 14.5% from RMB 38.9 billion in H1 2023 to RMB 44.5 billion in H1 2024, driven by higher business volume in express delivery services[38] - Revenue from JD Group accounted for 30.6% of total revenue in H1 2024, while revenue from other sources (including third-party merchants on JD's platform) accounted for 69.4%[39] - Gross profit increased from RMB 5 billion in the first half of 2023 to RMB 8.5 billion in the same period of 2024, with the gross margin rising from 6.5% to 9.8%[41] - Net profit for the first half of 2024 was RMB 2.6 billion, a significant improvement from a net loss of RMB 500 million in the same period of 2023[45] - Non-IFRS profit for the first half of 2024 was RMB 3.12 billion, compared to RMB 114.2 million in the same period of 2023, with a non-IFRS profit margin of 3.7%[48] - Non-IFRS EBITDA margin for the first half of 2024 was 10.8%, up from 7.5% in the same period of 2023[49] - Non-IFRS EBITDA for the period reached RMB 5,633,097 thousand, with a margin of 12.79%[50] - Revenue for the six months ended June 30, 2024, was RMB 86.34 billion, with a gross profit of RMB 8.48 billion, representing a 68.7% increase from RMB 5.03 billion in the same period of 2023[61] - Net profit attributable to the company's owners for the six months ended June 30, 2024, was RMB 2.26 billion, compared to a net loss of RMB 637.21 million in the same period of 2023[61] - Total comprehensive income for the six months ended June 30, 2024, was RMB 2.68 billion, compared to RMB 664.87 million in the same period of 2023[62] - Total revenue for the first half of 2024 reached RMB 86,344.76 million, a 11.0% increase compared to RMB 77,761.31 million in the same period of 2023[71] - Integrated supply chain customers contributed RMB 41,800.09 million to revenue in H1 2024, up 7.6% from RMB 38,852.51 million in H1 2023[71] - Basic earnings per share for H1 2024 were RMB 0.36, a significant improvement from a loss of RMB 0.10 per share in H1 2023[74] Integrated Supply Chain Performance - External integrated supply chain customer revenue for the first half of 2024 was RMB 15.4 billion, showing steady growth[6] - The number of external integrated supply chain customers reached 64,379 in the first half of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 5.9%[6] - Average revenue per external integrated supply chain customer was RMB 239,000 in the first half of 2024[6] - Revenue from integrated supply chain customers reached RMB 41.8 billion in H1 2024, with external integrated supply chain revenue at RMB 15.4 billion. The number of external integrated supply chain customers grew by 5.9% YoY to 64,379, with average revenue per customer at RMB 239,000[8] - The number of external integrated supply chain customers increased from 52,063 in Q2 2023 to 57,889 in Q2 2024[29] - Revenue from integrated supply chain customers increased by 4.4% YoY to RMB 21.3 billion for the three months ended June 30, 2024[29] - Revenue from integrated supply chain customers grew by 7.6% from RMB 38.9 billion in H1 2023 to RMB 41.8 billion in H1 2024, with the number of external integrated supply chain customers increasing from 60,792 to 64,379[38] Logistics Network and Infrastructure - JD Logistics expanded its next-day and second-day delivery coverage, enhancing customer experience and satisfaction. The company's full-freighter capabilities improved fresh produce delivery services, particularly for cherries and lychees, ensuring high-quality and stable delivery nationwide. In Hong Kong and Macau, JD Logistics continued to deliver premium services[7] - JD Logistics operated over 1,600 warehouses, 19,000 delivery stations, and employed nearly 340,000 self-operated delivery personnel as of June 30, 2024, strengthening its logistics infrastructure[7] - The company's logistics technology products and solutions cover key supply chain processes such as warehousing, sorting, transportation, and delivery, with core products including high-density storage systems, automated guided vehicles, and intelligent delivery vehicles[13] - The company operates one of China's largest warehousing networks, with over 1,600 self-operated warehouses and 2,000 cloud warehouses, covering a total area of over 32 million square meters[16] - The company's integrated transportation network includes 50,000 self-operated vehicles, over 600 railway routes, and 2,000 air freight routes as of June 30, 2024[17] - The company's last-mile delivery network consists of 340,000 self-operated delivery personnel and over 19,000 delivery stations, covering 300+ cities across China[18] - The company operates over 200 large-item warehouses and sorting centers, with a total management area exceeding 4 million square meters as of June 30, 2024[19] - The company's cold chain network includes 60 temperature-controlled warehouses for fresh and frozen food, covering 400,000 square meters, and 30 specialized warehouses for pharmaceuticals and medical devices, covering 300,000 square meters as of June 30, 2024[20] - The company operates nearly 100 bonded warehouses, direct mail warehouses, and overseas warehouses, with a total managed area of nearly 1 million square meters as of June 30, 2024[21] - The company has established overseas warehouses in 18 countries and regions, including the US, Germany, and the UAE, as of June 30, 2024[21] Technology and Innovation - JD Logistics invested in technology innovation, employing over 4,000 R&D professionals as of June 30, 2024. The company focused on automation, digitalization, and intelligent decision-making to optimize costs, efficiency, and customer experience[7] - In Q2 2024, the company provided customized services to a leading domestic semiconductor company using its self-developed Tianlang goods-to-person system and fully automated warehousing and delivery solutions[13] - The company's Supply Chain Emission Management Platform (SCEMP) has been certified by ISO14064 and is used by over 25 global clients for carbon emission monitoring as of June 2024[14] - As of June 30, 2024, the company has over 4,000 authorized patents and software, with more than 2,000 related to automation and unmanned technologies[14] - R&D expenses remained stable at RMB 1.7 billion in the first half of 2024, compared to RMB 1.8 billion in the same period of 2023[43] Cost Management and Efficiency - Operating costs increased by 3.5% from RMB 37.6 billion in Q2 2023 to RMB 39.0 billion in Q2 2024, with the operating cost-to-revenue ratio decreasing by 3.6 percentage points to 88.1%[31] - Employee compensation and benefits for operational staff rose by 13.1% from RMB 13.4 billion in Q2 2023 to RMB 15.1 billion in Q2 2024, driven by an increase in the number of operational employees[31] - Gross profit increased from RMB 3.4 billion in Q2 2023 to RMB 5.3 billion in Q2 2024, with the gross margin rising from 8.3% to 11.9% due to cost efficiency improvements[32] - Sales and marketing expenses grew by 12.9% from RMB 1.2 billion in Q2 2023 to RMB 1.4 billion in Q2 2024, driven by the expansion of the sales and marketing team[33] - Operating costs increased by 7.1% from RMB 72.7 billion in the first half of 2023 to RMB 77.9 billion in the same period of 2024, with the cost-to-revenue ratio decreasing by 3.4 percentage points to 90.2%[40] - Employee compensation and benefits for operational staff rose by 14.9% from RMB 26 billion in the first half of 2023 to RMB 29.9 billion in the same period of 2024, driven by an increase in the number of operational staff[40] - Sales and marketing expenses grew by 18.1% from RMB 2.4 billion in the first half of 2023 to RMB 2.8 billion in the same period of 2024, driven by the expansion of the sales and marketing team[42] - Employee compensation and benefits expenses, including share-based compensation, totaled RMB 33.5 billion for the six months ended June 30, 2024, a 13.6% increase compared to RMB 29.5 billion in the same period of 2023[60] - Employee compensation and benefits expenses increased to RMB 33,509.17 million in H1 2024, up 13.6% from RMB 29,490.85 million in H1 2023[73] Cash Flow and Financial Position - Total cash resources as of June 30, 2024, amounted to RMB 42.1 billion[53] - Net cash generated from operating activities for the six months ended June 30, 2024, was RMB 7,382,334 thousand[54] - Free cash inflow for the six months ended June 30, 2024, was RMB 1.4 billion, compared to a free cash outflow of RMB 2.1 billion in the same period of 2023[54] - Net cash used in investing activities for the six months ended June 30, 2024, was RMB 709,497 thousand[54] - Net cash used in financing activities for the six months ended June 30, 2024, was RMB 5,995,724 thousand[54] - The company's capital-to-debt ratio as of June 30, 2024, was approximately 15.4%[58] - Total assets as of June 30, 2024, were RMB 111.45 billion, with non-current assets of RMB 52.98 billion and current assets of RMB 58.47 billion[63] - Cash and cash equivalents as of June 30, 2024, were RMB 17.92 billion, compared to RMB 17.21 billion as of December 31, 2023[63] - Outstanding borrowings as of June 30, 2024, were RMB 7.8 billion[60] - Restricted cash pledged as collateral as of June 30, 2024, was RMB 238.9 million[60] - The company has no significant contingent liabilities or guarantees as of June 30, 2024[60] - Net cash generated from operating activities in H1 2024 was RMB 7,382.33 million, a 71.7% increase from RMB 4,298.91 million in H1 2023[65] - Total equity attributable to the company's owners increased to RMB 50,775.90 million as of June 30, 2024, up 5.4% from RMB 48,157.92 million at the end of 2023[64] - Total liabilities decreased to RMB 53,181.96 million as of June 30, 2024, down 7.6% from RMB 57,528.08 million at the end of 2023[64] - Cash and cash equivalents at the end of H1 2024 stood at RMB 17,919.82 million, a 15.9% increase from RMB 15,456.40 million at the end of H1 2023[65] - Trade receivables as of June 30, 2024, amounted to RMB 15,111,185 thousand, with a credit loss allowance of RMB 435,963 thousand[75] - Trade receivables aged within 3 months accounted for RMB 14,834,761 thousand as of June 30, 2024[76] - Trade payables as of June 30, 2024, totaled RMB 7,252,906 thousand, including RMB 38,558 thousand under supplier financing arrangements[78] - Trade payables aged within 3 months amounted to RMB 6,671,740 thousand as of June 30, 2024[79] Corporate Governance and Capital Allocation - The company maintained high standards of corporate governance and complied with the Corporate Governance Code as of June 30, 2024[80] - The net proceeds from the placement and subscription amounted to approximately RMB 6,924 million[86] - As of May 16, 2024, the unused amount of the net proceeds was approximately RMB 712 million, and the initial expected timeline was extended by 12 to 24 months starting from May 16, 2024[87] - The net proceeds were allocated as follows: RMB 5,885 million for optimizing the logistics network and solutions, and RMB 1,039 million for general corporate purposes and working capital needs[92] - The total net proceeds used as of June 30, 2024, were RMB 20 million, with RMB 692 million remaining unused[92] - The company extended the expected timeline for the use of net proceeds from the global offering to 12-36 months starting from May 16, 2024[84] - As of June 30, 2024, the unused amount of net proceeds from the global offering was RMB 5,170 million[85] - The company allocated RMB 12,620 million of net proceeds for upgrading and expanding its logistics network, with RMB 2,303 million remaining unused as of June 30, 2024[85] - RMB 4,589 million was allocated for developing advanced technology related to supply chain solutions, with RMB 2,134 million remaining unused as of June 30, 2024[85] - No significant acquisitions or disposals of subsidiaries and associates were made during the six months ended June 30, 2024[58] - No significant investments were made during the six months ended June 30, 2024[58] - No major investment or capital asset plans were announced as of June 30, 2024[58] - No interim dividend was declared or recommended for the period ending June 30, 2024[75] Employee and Workforce Management - Total number of employees as of June 30, 2024, is 451,823, with 95.2% in operations, 2.4% in sales and marketing, 1.0% in R&D, and 1.4% in general and administrative functions[59] - Employee compensation and benefits expenses, including share-based compensation, totaled RMB 33.5 billion for the six months ended June 30, 2024, a 13.6% increase compared to RMB 29.5 billion in the same period of 2023[60] - Employee compensation and benefits for operational staff rose by 13.1% from RMB 13.4 billion in Q2 2023 to RMB 15.1 billion in Q2 2024, driven by an increase in the number of operational employees[31] - Employee compensation and benefits for operational staff rose by 14.9% from RMB 26 billion in the first half of 2023 to RMB 29.9 billion in the same period of 2024, driven by an increase in the number of operational staff[40] - Employee compensation and benefits expenses increased to RMB 33,509.17 million in H1 2024, up 13.6% from RMB 29,490.85 million in H1 2023[73] Industry-Specific Supply Chain Solutions - JD

Investment Rating - The investment rating for JD Logistics is Neutral, with a target price adjusted from HKD 10.10 to HKD 9.80, reflecting a potential upside of 15.6% from the current price of HKD 8.48 [2][13]. Core Insights - The report indicates a downward adjustment in revenue growth expectations for Q2 2024 to RMB 43.87 billion, a 7% year-on-year increase, primarily due to weak demand in the large item sector and a focus on managing standard item pricing [1][3]. - Adjusted net profit is expected to reach RMB 1.2 billion for Q2 2024, representing a 45% year-on-year increase, with a profit margin of 2.7%, better than the previous forecast of 2.3% [1][10]. - The company is enhancing its warehousing capabilities in key industrial zones and deepening partnerships with brands like Xiaomi and Miniso, while also expanding its logistics services in regions like Hong Kong and Europe [1][3]. Revenue and Profitability - Total revenue for 2024 is projected to grow by 8%, with adjusted net profit expected to reach RMB 4.4 billion, corresponding to a profit margin of 2.4% [1][3]. - The breakdown of revenue shows internal revenue at RMB 13.54 billion and external revenue at RMB 30.34 billion for Q2 2024, with external revenue accounting for 69% of total revenue [3][14]. - The gross profit margin is expected to improve to 9.4% in Q2 2024, up from 7.7% in Q1 2024 [5][10]. Cost Management - The report highlights effective cost management strategies leading to a reduction in operational costs, with marketing expenses expected to rise by 18% year-on-year, while R&D expenses are projected to remain stable [6][8]. - Adjusted operating profit for Q2 2024 is forecasted at RMB 1.35 billion, with an adjusted operating profit margin of 3.1% [9][10]. Future Outlook - The logistics sector is facing challenges due to overall industry demand, but JD Logistics is focusing on efficiency improvements and strategic partnerships to drive growth [1][2]. - The company is expected to maintain a healthy growth trajectory despite the current market conditions, with a focus on enhancing service capabilities and expanding its logistics network [1][3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for JD Logistics with a target price of HK$14.23, indicating a potential upside of 57% from the current price of HK$9.06 [1][2][10] Core Insights - JD Logistics has shown significant improvement in profit margins, leading to an upward revision of the earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2024-2026 by 4.7% to 18.4% [4][8] - The company is expected to benefit from enhanced operational efficiency due to automation, cost savings from the integration of Debon Holdings, and improved economies of scale [4][5] - The report highlights that 31% of JD Logistics' revenue still comes from related parties, indicating a significant dependency on its parent company, JD Group [5][6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Revenue for 2024 is projected at RMB 181,863 million, with a growth rate of 9.1% [6][9] - The gross profit margin is expected to improve from 7.6% in 2023 to 8.3% in 2024 [7][9] - Adjusted net profit for 2024 is forecasted at RMB 2,634 million, reflecting a 32.7% year-on-year increase [6][9] Earnings Forecast - The report revises the EPS estimates for 2024 to RMB 0.42, up from RMB 0.40, and for 2025 to RMB 0.54, up from RMB 0.47 [3][9] - The adjusted net profit margin is expected to increase slightly, with projections of 1.4% for 2024 and 1.7% for 2025 [9][10] Valuation - The target price of HK$14.23 is based on a discounted cash flow (DCF) model, maintaining a WACC of 11.7% and a perpetual growth rate of 2% [10][11] - The current valuation suggests a significant discount of 36.3% compared to the target price, indicating potential for price appreciation [10][11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for JD Logistics (2618 HK) with a target price of HK$13.20 [1][20]. Core Insights - JD Logistics reported strong performance in Q1 2024, with revenue and net profit exceeding expectations. Revenue grew by 14.7% year-on-year, driven by significant increases in transactions with JD Group (JD US) and Debon Logistics, which rose by 14.9% and 25.5% respectively [1][20]. - The number of integrated supply chain customers has shown positive year-on-year growth, which is expected to accelerate revenue growth [1][20]. - The gross profit margin increased by 320 basis points to 7.7%, marking the first profitable quarter for JD Logistics, with adjusted net profit margin turning positive at 1.3% compared to -1.9% in Q1 2023 [1][20]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q1 2024 revenue reached RMB 42,137 million, with a year-on-year growth of 14.7% [7]. - The gross profit for Q1 2024 was RMB 3,231 million, with a gross profit margin of 7.7% [7]. - The adjusted net profit for Q1 2024 was RMB 541 million, reflecting a significant turnaround from the previous year [7]. Revenue Breakdown - Revenue from JD Group accounted for RMB 12,883 million in Q1 2024, showing a year-on-year increase of 14.9% [7]. - Revenue from external customers grew by 14.7% in Q1 2024, indicating a recovery in the integrated supply chain business [7]. Future Guidance - The company has set a full-year revenue guidance for 2024 with a high single-digit growth expectation, and an adjusted net profit margin forecast of 1.7% to 2.0% [2][4]. - The management believes that the strong performance in Q1 2024 lays a solid foundation for achieving the annual targets [2][4]. Valuation Metrics - The target price of HK$13.20 is based on a DCF model with a perpetual growth rate of 2% and a WACC of 11.7% [4][6]. - The current stock price is HK$9.80, indicating a potential upside of 35% [6]. Market Comparison - The report notes that the revenue forecast for 2024E is RMB 181,860 million, which is 2% lower than market expectations [4]. - The projected EPS for 2024E is RMB 0.40, aligning closely with market estimates [4]. This comprehensive analysis highlights the positive trajectory of JD Logistics, underpinned by strong Q1 performance and optimistic future guidance.