01 中金研究｜宏观策略周论：降息与经济工作会议之后 核心看点： 1、港股为何跑输？港股何时跑赢？2、中央经济工作会议的信号；3、如何判断市场是否见 顶？4、日本央行加息、套息交易、日本财政。 嘉宾： 刘刚 Kevin丨中金公司研究部董事总经理、海外与港股策略首席分析师 黄文静丨中金公司研究部执行总经理、宏观分析师 黄凯松丨中金公司副总经理、国内策略分析师 丁瑞丨中金公司总监、日本研究负责人 扫码预约 02 商贸零售丨东吴吴劲草：消费商社行业的四大方向-出海/资源/服务/改革【首席 开麦2025】 10:00-11:00 核心看点： 09:30-10:30 核心看点： 1、美国的需求前置的逻辑将演绎到什么程度、持续多久？2、在2026年下半年美国铜关税进 入兑现期后，全球市场又将如何消化供给的后置？ 嘉宾： 郭朝辉丨中金公司研究部执行总经理，大宗商品首席分析师 赵烜丨中金公司研究部大宗商品分析师 扫码预约 04 长期看好消费出海方向，重视全球定价的资源商贸，同时重视百货&景区等服务消费改革。 嘉宾： 吴劲草丨东吴证券商贸零售首席分析师 扫码预约 03 中金公司 | 大宗半小时——新高之后，更上层楼？ 15:1 ...

Group 1 - The top ten financial brands in Beijing for the year 2025 have been announced [1] - The list includes major banks such as ICBC, China Construction Bank, and Agricultural Bank of China [2] - Other notable companies on the list are China Life Insurance and Ping An Life Insurance [2]

Group 1 - The report highlights the recent performance of various industries, with notable gains in sectors such as non-ferrous metals, electronics, and power equipment, while retail and real estate sectors faced declines [1][1][1] - The central economic work conference emphasized the importance of technological breakthroughs and supply-demand optimization, indicating a shift towards quality improvement in economic growth [11][12][19] - The commercial aerospace sector is experiencing significant growth, with the establishment of a dedicated regulatory body and a notable increase in the commercial aerospace index, which has risen by 46.52% since April 7 [47][48] Group 2 - The report indicates a seasonal recovery in social financing, with November seeing an increase of 24,885 billion yuan, driven primarily by government bond issuance [4][7] - The credit environment is showing signs of marginal improvement, particularly in corporate loans, which increased by 6,100 billion yuan in November, reflecting a recovery in demand [5][6] - The report notes that the retail sector is undergoing a transformation, with a focus on quality, as highlighted by the Ministry of Commerce's emphasis on retail quality upgrades [1][1][1] Group 3 - The report discusses the rising interest in inquiry transfers, which have seen a significant increase in both project numbers and transfer scale, indicating a growing trend in the market [51][52] - The technology sector is expected to remain a key focus, with upcoming events such as the Volcano Engine FORCE conference anticipated to showcase advancements in AI and cloud services [56]

Market Overview - The A-share market maintained an upward trend, with the broad indices showing slight increases, specifically the CSI 300, CSI 500, and ChiNext Index recorded weekly changes of -0.08%, 1.01%, and 2.74% respectively [2] - The communication and defense industries performed strongly, ranking first and second in sector performance, while coal and oil & petrochemical sectors lagged behind [2] - Growth stocks outperformed value stocks, with the National Securities Growth Index rising by 1.01% while the National Securities Value Index fell by 1.37% [2] Future Outlook - The macroeconomic expectations indicate a neutral impact on the stock market, suggesting that the current economic conditions do not significantly influence market movements [3] - Valuation levels, market sentiment, and capital flows are currently optimistic, indicating a normal microstructure in the stock market [3] - The QRS indicator shows a bullish signal for most tracked indices, suggesting a certain level of support at the market bottom [3] Quantitative Model Performance - The industry rotation model outperformed the equal-weighted benchmark by 0.2 percentage points, with a cumulative return of 22.9% since August 1, 2023, compared to the benchmark's 16.5% [4] - The multi-factor stock selection model for the CSI 300 index enhanced returns by 0.61 percentage points this week, with a cumulative return of 143.10% since January 1, 2019, outperforming the benchmark by 88.83 percentage points [5] - The growth trend selection strategy yielded a return of -0.7% this week, with an annualized return of 29.8% since January 1, 2009, outperforming the benchmark by 19.6% [6] Sector Rotation Insights - The adaptive model for sector rotation indicates current holdings in non-ferrous metals, banking, consumer services, power equipment & new energy, and computers, with a recent weekly return of -0.9% [4] - The value stock selection strategy reported a return of -1.5% this week, with an annualized return of 17.9% since May 5, 2009, outperforming the benchmark by 12.6% [8] Timing Indicators - The left-side timing indicators suggest a neutral valuation level for the CSI 300, with a current value of 0.85, indicating a balanced market perspective [10] - The market sentiment indicators, such as the put-call ratio and the China VIX, show bullish signals, suggesting a favorable environment for equity investments [10] QRS Timing Indicators - The QRS timing indicators for major indices like the Shanghai Composite and CSI 300 show positive signals, indicating potential upward movements in these indices [11]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the insurance sector, recommending specific companies such as China Pacific Insurance, China Ping An, China Life (H), and China Taiping, while also recommending New China Life Insurance [4][17]. Core Insights - The financial industry experienced a mixed performance, with the non-bank financial index rising by 0.81%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.89 percentage points. The insurance sector showed a notable increase of 2.36%, while the banking sector declined by 1.77% [2][11]. - The central economic work conference emphasized a proactive fiscal policy, which is expected to benefit the insurance sector by increasing infrastructure asset supply and improving credit risk perceptions [14][15]. - The report highlights the potential for valuation recovery in the brokerage sector, driven by regulatory changes that align public fund interests with long-term investor returns [18][19]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Performance and Sector Insights - The non-bank financial index rose by 0.81%, with the insurance sector outperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.44 percentage points [2][11]. - The banking sector underperformed, with a decline of 1.77%, attributed to macroeconomic policy expectations [3][21]. 2. Insurance Sector Data Tracking - The insurance sector's premium income showed steady growth, with life insurance and property insurance premiums increasing by 9.6% and 4.0% year-on-year, respectively [17][26]. - The report notes that the 10-year government bond yield decreased to 1.84%, which is favorable for the insurance sector's investment strategies [31]. 3. Brokerage Sector Data Tracking - The brokerage sector's PB valuation stands at 1.37x, indicating potential for valuation recovery as earnings improve [19][42]. - Regulatory changes in public fund sales are expected to enhance the industry's focus on long-term investor interests [18][19]. 4. Banking Sector Data Tracking - The banking sector's PB valuation is at 0.54x, suggesting it remains undervalued [21][25]. - The central economic work conference's focus on domestic demand and flexible monetary policy is expected to support the banking sector's growth [22][23].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The non-bank financial index increased by 0.81%, outperforming the CSI 300 index which decreased by 0.08%. The brokerage and insurance sectors continue to show good trends, with valuations at low levels and relatively stagnant performance throughout the year. The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts are beneficial for the equity market, directly favoring the profitability of securities firms' overseas businesses due to lower liability costs and asset expansion [4][5] - The average daily trading volume of stock funds reached 2.39 trillion, a 15.1% increase month-on-month, indicating a recovery in trading activity. The cumulative average daily trading volume for the year is 2.05 trillion, a 69.5% year-on-year increase [5] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission's recent positive stance signals a potential "policy easing period" for the industry, which may lead to an increase in leverage limits and support for the profitability of the securities industry. The report recommends focusing on strategic opportunities in undervalued leading companies in the brokerage and insurance sectors [5][6] Summary by Sections Brokerage Sector - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts are favorable for the overseas business of brokerages, and new regulations are set to standardize fund sales practices. The report highlights three main lines of recommended stocks: Huatai Securities, Guotai Junan, and CICC for their advantages in overseas and institutional business; GF Securities and Dongfang Securities for their wealth management strengths; and Guosen Securities for its retail advantages [5][6][7] Insurance Sector - The liability side is expected to achieve a "good start," with the transformation of dividend insurance continuing to progress. The demand for "savings" from residents is likely to persist, and the insurance distribution channel is expected to maintain high growth. On the asset side, stable long-term interest rates and a favorable equity market are expected to boost investment returns in the medium to long term [6][7]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes that new regulations in fund sales are reshaping the fund ecosystem, creating opportunities for investment as the spring market approaches [1][2] - The insurance sector is expected to see high growth in performance, supported by the introduction of a new commercial health insurance drug directory, which encourages product innovation [2][16] - The report suggests focusing on specific stocks within the insurance sector, including Xinhua Insurance, China Life, Ping An, and others, as they are likely to benefit from these developments [2][16] Weekly Performance - As of December 13, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index reported a decrease of 0.34%, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.84% [11] - The average daily trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1.95 trillion yuan, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 15.14% [6] Industry Dynamics and Weekly Commentary Insurance Sector - The performance of listed insurance companies is expected to continue high growth, with long-term interest rate spreads showing marginal improvement [13][16] - The 10-year government bond yield was 1.84%, down 1 basis point from the previous week, providing a supportive environment for insurance stock valuations [13][16] Securities Sector - The issuance of the "Publicly Raised Securities Investment Fund Sales Behavior Norms (Draft for Comments)" aims to systematically regulate sales behavior and protect investor rights [17][18] - The new regulations mark a shift from a scale-driven approach to one focused on investor interests, promoting a fundamental transformation in the industry [18][23] Key Company Valuation and Financial Analysis - The report provides detailed valuation metrics for key companies in the insurance and securities sectors, indicating a "Buy" rating for several firms based on their projected earnings and price-to-earnings ratios [7][8] - For instance, Ping An is rated with a target price of 76.65 yuan per share, while Xinhua Insurance has a target price of 94.21 yuan per share, reflecting strong expected performance [7] Regulatory and Policy Environment - The national financial system work conference emphasized the need for risk prevention, strong regulation, and promotion of high-quality development in the financial sector [25][26] - The focus will be on stabilizing the market, enhancing financial governance, and addressing local government debt risks, which will shape the future landscape of the financial industry [25][29]

本报（chinatimes.net.cn）记者张萌 卢梦雪 北京报道 王缅提到，当前不少金融服务机构已在探索基于通用大模型底座提供各类数据分析服务，而在证券垂直 领域，关键在于如何将高质量的领域知识准确地传递给用户，即提升信息"召回"的准确性。中金公司一 站式投研服务平台"中金点睛"致力于将中金研究过去多年的积累，以及300余位分析师针对不同行业构 建的研究框架与模型，系统性地转化为结构化信息。他表示，该平台不仅提供信息，更着眼于辅助投资 决策的逻辑与判断，高效助力投资者研究市场，进一步提升定价能力。 在全球资本市场风险管控领域，"中金公司已有30%以上的收入来自于国际业务，我们的体会是，一旦 中国金融企业走向境外，我们要时刻准备好面对很多复杂情况，有时候甚至是惊涛骇浪。" 王缅在会上 提到，在国际市场展业尤其是如衍生品等资本类业务时，风险管理能力某种程度上决定了业务发展的上 限。中金公司在衍生品定价与风险计量体系建设方面作出了积极实践：自主研发境内外一体化风险与资 本计量系统，通过采用国产GPU/CPU混合部署的云原生分布式架构，极大提升了计算效率，实现百万 量级的衍生品持仓风险资本计量从传统计量软件的4- ...

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Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of on-the-ground research in the mining industry, particularly in Peru, highlighting the need for understanding local communities and their needs to foster better relationships and reduce operational conflicts [3][5][19]. Group 1: Research Journey - The company has initiated a video and text series called "Journey of Research" to share insights from analysts' fieldwork and market observations [2]. - The recent trip to Peru marks a continuation of previous research efforts in South America, showcasing the company's commitment to in-depth industry analysis [2][3]. Group 2: Community Engagement - The mining sector in Peru faces significant challenges related to community relations, with local poverty and uneven development leading to conflicts [5]. - Companies are shifting from transactional strategies to building emotional connections with local communities, which is essential for sustainable operations [5][6]. - An example is provided with Las Bambas copper mine, where the company has engaged with over 80 communities to establish trust and cooperation [5][6]. Group 3: Cultural Connection - The article highlights the cultural ties between Chinese companies and Peruvian communities, emphasizing that cultural connections can facilitate smoother interactions and mutual understanding [18][19]. - The exchange of agricultural practices and local traditions fosters a sense of community and collaboration, which is crucial for overcoming operational challenges [19][20]. Group 4: Insights from the Field - The visit to the Las Bambas mine included aerial inspections of various mining areas, showcasing the operational efficiency and organization within the mining processes [11][14]. - The experience in Peru is described as not only a professional journey but also a personal one, emphasizing the emotional and cultural dimensions of international business [20].