Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-bank financial industry, specifically focusing on the international business of brokerage firms [1]. Core Insights - Multiple driving forces are converging, marking a strategic opportunity period for brokerage firms to expand internationally. This includes policy empowerment, market expansion, and profit optimization [5][11]. - The international business of brokerage firms is steadily advancing, with significant growth potential as contributions from overseas operations increase [30]. - Long-term growth opportunities remain abundant, with various business lines collaborating to unlock growth ceilings [11][30]. Summary by Sections 1. Multiple Driving Forces Converging - **Policy Empowerment**: National strategies emphasize the necessity for brokerage firms to expand internationally, with supportive policies being established to facilitate this transition [11][12]. - **Market Expansion**: The Hong Kong IPO market is significantly expanding due to ongoing reforms, providing ample opportunities for brokerage firms to engage in new markets [14][15]. - **Profit Optimization**: Overseas operations exhibit a notable return on equity (ROE) advantage compared to domestic businesses, driven by higher leverage and operational efficiency [19][22]. 2. Accelerated International Business Development - **Increasing Contribution from Overseas Operations**: The number of overseas subsidiaries has grown, with a focus on regions like Hong Kong and Southeast Asia, enhancing the overall revenue structure of brokerage firms [30]. - **Dominance of Investment Income**: Investment income is the primary revenue source for overseas operations, supported by wealth management and investment banking services [30][31]. 3. Long-term Growth Potential - **Comparative Gaps with Global Leaders**: Chinese brokerage firms still lag behind international leaders like Goldman Sachs in terms of international revenue, indicating substantial growth potential [11][30]. - **Development Opportunities Across Business Lines**: Various sectors within the brokerage industry are poised for growth, including cross-border investment banking and wealth management, driven by increasing demand for international services [11][30]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading brokerage firms with strong international business capabilities, such as CITIC Securities, CICC, Huatai Securities, and others, which are expected to benefit from the ongoing internationalization trend [5][30].

Group 1 - The Securities ETF Huashan (516200) opened down 0.91% at 0.982 yuan on March 27 [1][2] - Major holdings of the Securities ETF Huashan experienced declines, including Dongfang Wealth down 0.99%, CITIC Securities down 0.33%, and Guotai Junan down 0.78% [1][2] - The performance benchmark for the Securities ETF Huashan is the CSI All Share Securities Company Index return, managed by Huashan Fund Management Co., Ltd. [1][2] Group 2 - Since its establishment on March 9, 2021, the Securities ETF Huashan has returned -1.01%, with a return of -11.09% over the past month [1][2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant shifts in global asset allocation and the redefinition of safe assets in the context of increasing geopolitical risks and the evolving international order, particularly following the military actions involving the U.S. and Iran [2][4]. Group 1: Geopolitical Impact on Markets - Since the military strikes against Iran in February 2026, global assets have experienced substantial volatility, with risk assets declining and oil prices surging nearly 50% due to supply concerns in the Strait of Hormuz [2]. - Traditional safe-haven assets like gold and U.S. Treasuries have weakened, indicating a shift in the logic of safe assets towards those that enhance national resilience against geopolitical risks [2][4]. - Emerging markets and European equities have reached new highs, while U.S. stocks, particularly the tech-heavy Nasdaq, have shown relative weakness [2][3]. Group 2: Asset Reallocation Trends - The past year has seen a rebalancing of funds across countries, styles, and asset classes, with a notable increase in allocations to commodities such as gold, oil, and agricultural products [2][3]. - The article highlights a trend where non-U.S. markets, especially emerging markets, are outperforming U.S. equities, with emerging markets beating the S&P 500 by 16.3 percentage points [6] and non-U.S. developed markets by 6.4 percentage points [6]. - The shift in asset allocation is characterized by a move from financial assets to physical assets, and from growth to value styles, as geopolitical tensions rise [39]. Group 3: Economic and Policy Framework - The article references the "Trump Reset" framework, which aims to realign financial capital with industrial assets through fiscal leadership and financial repression, leading to a long-term global capital rebalancing [3][4]. - The U.S. is expected to enter a period of dollar depreciation, particularly against a basket of physical assets, as fiscal policies increasingly dominate over monetary policies [3][39]. - The article suggests that the U.S. economy may experience a nominal growth cycle driven more by investment than consumption, indicating a potential "K-shaped" economic recovery [43]. Group 4: China's Market Resilience - China's assets are anticipated to gain favor due to their safety attributes amid rising global geopolitical risks, potentially supporting a long-term bullish trend in A-shares [4][60]. - The article emphasizes China's manufacturing and innovation capabilities, which are becoming critical in the context of global reindustrialization and geopolitical tensions [60]. - The strong performance of A-shares is attributed to China's robust manufacturing sector and its position as a leader in high-tech exports, particularly in the context of increasing global demand for secure assets [60].

Group 1: Energy Sector - The energy market is expected to experience varying impacts based on different scenarios, with oil prices potentially averaging around $80 per barrel in a mild scenario, and rising to $120 in a baseline scenario, leading to significant inflationary pressures [1][2][4] - Energy companies are projected to see their earnings per share (EPS) and valuations increase as the market adjusts to higher long-term oil price expectations, which are currently reflected below $80 per barrel [3][36] - In extreme scenarios where oil prices soar to $140-160 per barrel, the energy sector may face severe challenges, including economic recession and increased inflation, necessitating a shift towards defensive sectors [2][3][29] Group 2: Mining Sector - In a mild scenario, the mining sector may benefit moderately as the market returns to fundamental pricing, with aluminum and copper expected to see positive price movements due to improved demand expectations [27] - In a baseline scenario, rising costs from energy and raw materials will reshape pricing logic for aluminum and nickel, while gold may rise due to inflationary pressures [28] - In extreme scenarios, the mining sector could face significant downturns, with only gold likely to serve as a safe haven asset amidst a broader economic recession [29] Group 3: Pharmaceutical Sector - The pharmaceutical industry is considered a defensive sector, benefiting from a strong dollar and lower sensitivity to oil prices and inflation, making it a diversified investment option during uncertain times [3] Group 4: Semiconductor Sector - The semiconductor industry is expected to experience limited impact from rising oil prices, as the cost of raw materials and electricity constitutes a small portion of overall chip production costs [40] - However, if the geopolitical situation escalates, there may be indirect effects on demand due to macroeconomic downturns, potentially leading to revenue growth pressures [42] Group 5: Agricultural Sector - Agricultural products may face rising costs due to increased fertilizer prices linked to energy costs, with potential price increases for corn and soybeans if fertilizer prices rise significantly [37] - The geopolitical situation may also enhance expectations for biofuel alternatives, although the overall supply-demand balance for major crops remains relatively stable [38] Group 6: Chemical Sector - The chemical industry is experiencing structural disruptions due to rising energy prices and supply chain issues, with significant impacts on production costs and pricing across the entire value chain [31][34] - Regional disparities are evident, with Asia facing more direct risks due to high dependence on Middle Eastern oil and gas, while North America may benefit from higher self-sufficiency [32] Group 7: Industrial Sector - The industrial sector is under pressure from rising costs, but the overall impact is manageable, with a focus on demand-side influences that could affect profitability [50]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the increasing volatility in the global commodity market since 2026, driven by geopolitical instability and rising supply risks, while domestic demand for commodities is expected to stabilize due to government policies aimed at efficiency and structural adjustments [1]. Group 1: Industrial Supply Optimization - The government report highlights the implementation of a dual control system for carbon emissions and the comprehensive rectification of "involution" competition, particularly affecting the steel and coal industries [2]. - In the steel sector, supply governance is shifting from merely reducing output to optimizing capacity, with carbon constraints becoming a key driver for this optimization [2]. - The steel industry is expected to transition towards a clearing phase, benefiting profit levels as carbon constraints tighten over time [2]. Group 2: Coal Industry Dynamics - The coal sector faces constraints on capacity utilization due to "involution" policies, limiting the elasticity of coal production, although large-scale capacity reduction is unlikely due to energy security concerns [3]. - Under the dual carbon goals, coal consumption will face increasing pressure from renewable energy alternatives, with coal power expected to enter a "peak zone" during the 14th Five-Year Plan [3]. - The projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for coal power generation during the 14th Five-Year Plan is -0.3%, indicating a slow decline with potential fluctuations due to weather conditions [3]. Group 3: Energy Security and Structure - The report sets a target for energy production capacity to reach 5.8 billion tons of standard coal by 2025, enhancing energy self-sufficiency [4]. - By 2025, China's primary energy production capacity is expected to reach 5.13 billion tons of standard coal, marking a 3.6% year-on-year increase, with natural gas and electricity generation growing at rates of 6.3% and 4.8%, respectively [4]. - Coal remains a cornerstone of China's energy system, with coal production expected to contribute approximately 3.46 billion tons of standard coal by 2025, despite a declining share [4]. Group 4: Food Security Measures - The government report outlines a shift in agricultural policy towards a balanced focus on quantity, capacity, and overall efficiency, emphasizing a comprehensive approach to food security [5]. - The target for grain production is set to stabilize at around 1.4 trillion jin, reflecting a commitment to absolute food supply security and basic self-sufficiency [6]. - Policies aim to address structural contradictions in grain and oil supply, including bolstering soybean production and expanding oilseed cultivation to reduce reliance on imports [6].

Group 1: Economic Events and Policies - The People's Bank of China will conduct a 500 billion MLF operation with a one-year term on March 25, 2026, to maintain liquidity in the banking system [1] - The China Development Forum highlighted the importance of "Token" as a value anchor in the smart era, linking technology supply with business demand [1] Group 2: Banking and Investment Insights - Several Chinese banks, including Bank of China and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, issued risk warnings regarding the volatile precious metals market, advising clients to enhance risk awareness and manage their investment positions [2] - Goldman Sachs' chief China equity strategist noted a significant increase in international investors' interest in Chinese stocks, with only about 10% of surveyed clients considering the Chinese stock market "non-investable," down from approximately 40% two years ago [5] Group 3: Energy Sector Developments - Philippine President Marcos declared a national energy emergency to address energy supply issues stemming from Middle Eastern conflicts, implementing measures to stabilize energy supply for key sectors [3] - The shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has decreased by 95% since the outbreak of the conflict, significantly impacting global energy transportation [3] Group 4: Corporate Announcements and Financial Performance - Ideal Auto announced a share repurchase plan, authorized to buy up to $1 billion of its Class A common stock and/or American Depositary Shares by March 31, 2027 [5] - Hainan Mining reported a 38.99% year-on-year decline in net profit for 2025 and proposed a dividend of 0.8 yuan per share [8] - South China Power signed an EPC contract worth 827 million yuan for a coal power project in Inner Mongolia [8]

Core Viewpoint - Since 2025, gold prices have surged significantly, influenced by various factors including global central bank purchases of gold for hedging purposes, particularly in the context of increased volatility due to Middle Eastern conflicts. The relationship between central bank gold purchases and gold prices has strengthened, especially among emerging markets and developing countries, while developed countries show less inclination to increase gold holdings [2][4][14]. Group 1: Factors Influencing Gold Prices - The backdrop of de-financialization has led to rising prices of tangible assets, including gold. This trend is a response to the challenges posed by financialization that began in the early 1980s, which emphasized monetary policy over fiscal policy and led to increased financial asset volatility [4][5]. - De-financialization has resulted in a shift towards greater fiscal responsibility and increased financial regulation, leading to a higher importance of tangible assets over financial assets. This shift is reflected in the rising significance of commodities like oil and gas in supporting currency values [6][10]. Group 2: Changes in Gold Demand and Attributes - Gold's investment attribute has notably increased, reaching 44% in 2025, up 16 percentage points from 2024. This is attributed to gold's physical scarcity and its role as an inflation hedge [6][10]. - The traditional pricing framework for gold is facing challenges, as historical correlations between gold prices and U.S. real interest rates have weakened since 2022, with both gold prices and real interest rates rising simultaneously [10][12]. Group 3: Central Bank Gold Holdings - The share of gold in global central bank reserves has increased to 26% by 2025, surpassing U.S. Treasury bonds for the first time in 30 years. This trend is primarily driven by central banks in emerging markets and developing countries, while developed countries have shown stable or declining gold holdings [12][14]. - Notable increases in gold holdings have been observed in countries like China, Poland, Turkey, and India, while countries like Germany and Kazakhstan have reduced their gold reserves [17][20]. Group 4: Future Price Scenarios Based on Central Bank Purchases - The correlation between global central bank gold purchases and gold prices has become more pronounced since 2021. Projections indicate that if central banks increase their gold holdings to 22%, gold prices could rise to approximately $4,964 per ounce [46]. - Various scenarios suggest that if central banks continue to increase their gold allocations, prices could reach as high as $7,417 per ounce if holdings rise to 50% [46].

Core Insights - The Hong Kong Web3 Festival will take place from April 20-23, 2026, at HKCEC, following the success of previous editions [1][4] - This event is co-hosted by Wanxiang Blockchain Labs and HashKey Group, and is recognized as Asia's premier crypto conference since 2023 [4] Event Focus Areas - The festival will emphasize the convergence of traditional finance and crypto finance, AI + Web3, and Real World Assets (RWAs) [5][8] - Discussions will include the role of stablecoins and the development of a new global payment system [5] - The integration of AI and blockchain is expected to create a new generation of financial infrastructure, with projects like OpenClaw leading the way [6][7] Speaker Lineup - The conference will feature prominent speakers including Paul Chan, Financial Secretary of Hong Kong, and executives from major firms like BlackRock and Deloitte [11][12] - A diverse range of experts from various sectors will participate, providing insights into the evolving Web3 landscape [10] Strategic Partnerships - The festival has established partnerships with Cyberport and the Hong Kong Trade Development Council (HKTDC) [14] - A strong sponsor network has been formed, including title sponsor OKX Wallet and platinum sponsors such as Finanx AI and MSX [14] Media Coverage - Various media outlets will host exhibitions at the event, enhancing visibility and engagement within the Web3 community [15]

中 國 國 際 金 融 股 份 有 限 公 司 （於中華人民共和國註冊成立的股份有限公司） （股份代號：03908） 香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告的內容概不負責，對其 準確性或完整性亦不發表任何聲明，並明確表示，概不對因本公告全部或任何部份內容 而產生或因倚賴該等內容而引致的任何損失承擔任何責任。 China International Capital Corporation Limited 海外監管公告 本公告乃根據香港聯合交易所有限公司證券上市規則第13.10B條而作出。 茲載列中國國際金融股份有限公司（「本公司」）在上海證券交易所網站刊登的本公司關於 「21中金Y2」提前贖回的第三次提示性公告，僅供參閱。 承董事會命 中國國際金融股份有限公司 董事會秘書 梁東擎 中國，北京 2026年3月23日 於本公告日期，本公司執行董事為陳亮先生及王曙光先生；非執行董事為張薇女士、 孔令岩先生及田汀女士；以及獨立非執行董事為吳港平先生、陸正飛先生及周禹先生。 债券代码：188054.SH 债券简称：21中金Y2 中国国际金融股份有限公司关于"21 中金 Y2" 提前赎回的第三次提示性公告 ...

Investment Rating - The report provides a "Buy" rating for the non-bank financial sector, indicating an expected performance that will exceed the market by more than 10% over the next 12 months [36]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of strengthening market stability mechanisms and suggests focusing on left-side opportunities within the sector. It highlights that external risk events may fluctuate, but the market's resilience remains strong, with a trend of incremental capital inflow expected to continue [5]. - The introduction of the Financial Law draft is seen as a significant step towards enhancing regulatory frameworks and promoting high-quality development in the financial sector. This law aims to strengthen supervision, prevent risks, and support long-term growth [16][17]. - The insurance sector is advised to be actively monitored, as it continues to increase its equity investment ratio despite market downturns. The report notes that the solvency ratio of life insurance companies remains robust, providing a buffer against potential market pressures [13][5]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - As of March 21, 2026, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 3.38%, while the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 2.90%. The CSI 300 Index dropped by 2.19%, and the ChiNext Index rose by 1.26% [10]. 2. Industry Dynamics and Weekly Commentary (a) Insurance - The report indicates that the insurance sector is guided by the two sessions to pursue high-quality development. The solvency ratio of life insurance companies is at 115%, significantly above the regulatory threshold of 50%, allowing for continued investment in equities [13]. - The proportion of insurance funds allocated to stocks and funds has increased to 14.8%, up by 2.1 percentage points from the previous year. The report suggests that the current valuation of the insurance sector presents a good cost-performance ratio [13]. (b) Securities - The Financial Law draft aims to enhance financial regulation and promote high-quality development. It establishes a comprehensive legal framework for financial activities, emphasizing risk prevention and regulatory clarity [16][17]. - The report notes that the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission has reported a significant increase in the virtual asset market, with a daily trading volume increase of 89.5% year-on-year, indicating a growing market and regulatory framework [21][23]. 3. Key Company Valuations and Financial Analysis - The report includes detailed valuations for key companies in the sector, with several companies rated as "Buy," including China Ping An, China Life, and Huatai Securities, among others. The expected earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for these companies indicate strong growth potential [6].