中信证券研报表示，2025年6月美国新增非农就业人数超预期，失业率低于预期。不过，本份非农报告 实则显示美国就业市场继续走弱。依旧认为美国就业市场"缓冲垫"有限，就业市场继续走弱失业率或将 加快上行。延续此前观点，预计美联储将在9月的议息会议上再度降息。 ③中金公司：非农韧性不支持美联储提前降息 美联储的降息路径现重大变数，多家券商早间发布最新观点>> 7月3日，美国劳工统计局统计数据显示，6月非农就业岗位增加14.7万个，预期为11万个。失业率降至 4.1%，预期为4.3%。在非农数据公布后，芝加哥商品交易所的美联储观察工具显示，7月降息可能性降 至个位数。美联储的降息路径现重大变数，多家券商早间发布最新观点： ①华泰证券：6月非农再超预期，7月降息概率回落 华泰证券表示，6月新增非农数据再超预期，美联储7月降息概率进一步下降，但考虑到关税、移民放缓 对三季度新增就业的拖累，维持联储9月-12月两次预防式降息的判断。6月新增非农超预期、失业率超 预期下行或受到多个因素干扰，未改变就业市场放缓的趋势：6月天气偏热叠加罢工拖累消退，对新增 非农提振约在3-4万人左右；5-6月美国劳动力规模下降75.5万人、劳动 ...

中金公司 瞰星链 02 - 商业航天进入发展快车道 20250703 摘要 星网集团高管调整后，新领导班子背景多元化，为后续资源保障、管理 迭代及市场资源整合奠定基础，预计下半年将加速一代系统组网，一代 增强系统招标落地，并推进二代系统建设，总发射规模接近 13,000 颗。 一代及一代增强系统的建设将牵引产业链打磨供应链，实现科研生产模 式转型，并验证关键技术，为更大规模、更具经济性的组网工程奠定基 础。新领导班子的到位将提升管理效率，促进技术进步。 国内卫星制造和组网方面取得显著进展，上海垣信的组网卫星技术问题 已解决，新旺集团的一代星和二代系统试验星发射成功，为后续更大规 模组网奠定基础。 国内火箭发射技术虽有进步，但与 SpaceX 相比仍有差距，尤其在可重 复使用火箭方面。国内企业如航天六院、建元科技、蓝箭等正在积极研 发可重复使用火箭，以降低发射成本。 资本市场对商业航天支持力度加大，北京等国资设立产业基金，科创板 放宽标准支持商业航天企业发展，头部企业预计启动 IPO，表明资本市 场对商业航天持积极态度。 Q&A 国内商业航天产业在近期有哪些积极变化？ 星网集团在今年下半年有哪些具体计划？ 星网 ...

头部券商IPO业务竞争格局悄然生变 今年上半年，A股IPO受理步伐加快、中企境外上市持续升温，券商投行的竞争格局悄然生变。 第一财经根据交易所披露数据统计，上半年，三大交易所受理IPO项目共177个，共有38家券商参与"分 羹"，头部券商的座次发生变化。合并后的国泰海通IPO项目竞争中占据优势地位，中信证券则暂失首 位。而排名较后的头部券商，在境外市场则有相对较好的表现。 与此同时，投行生态"马太效应"进一步加剧，上半年超过七成的IPO受理项目、超过八成的IPO承销金 额，均集中在前十家券商手中，如何在投行业务竞争中突围，成为中小券商共同面临的难题。 头部券商竞争格局悄然生变 自6月以来，沪深北三大交易所IPO受理明显加速。其中，6月新受理IPO数量就有151个，占比超过 85%。 从投行参与情况来看，上半年共有38家券商保荐了项目，超过七成的业务量，集中在排名前十的券商手 中。其中，4家头部券商受理项目数超过10单，国泰海通以26单位列第一，中信证券紧随其后受理22 单，中信建投共受理14单，中金公司受理10单。 从承销情况来看，Wind数据显示，按发行日计算，截至6月30日，上半年共有23家券商参与A股4 ...

Core Viewpoint - The China Securities Association has announced the second batch of companies for on-site inspections for initial public offerings (IPOs) in 2025, with a total of 12 companies selected for review [1] Group 1: Selected Companies - The companies selected for the on-site inspections include: - Changyu Group with 700 million - Yisiwei with 1.214 billion - Hengyun Chang with 1.55 billion - Xinmi Technology with 785 million - Aiteke with 1.5 billion - Tianyuan Biochemical with 630 million - Zhenshi Co. with 3.981 billion - Kangrui New Materials with 1.105 billion - Future Materials with 2.446 billion - Electric Science Blue Sky with 1.5 billion - Huigu New Materials with 900 million - Huike Co. with 8.5 billion [1] Group 2: Underwriters - The IPOs are sponsored by various securities firms, including: - Southwest Securities - Guotou Securities - CITIC Securities - Guojin Securities - Huatai United Securities - Guohai Securities - CICC - Guotai Junan - CITIC Securities - CITIC JianTou - CITIC Securities - CICC [1] Group 3: IPO Distribution - The majority of the selected companies are from the main board, with a total of 6 companies listed [1]

2025年以来，中资企业境外IPO势头向好。 Dealogic数据显示，上半年中资企业境外IPO累计完成55单，募资规模合计约134亿美元。按 承销规模 1 排名，前十名中介机构共完成30单项目，承销规模合计约78亿美元，其中中资机构占得五席，中金公司以11.60亿美元承销规 模、8.63%市场份额的显著优势位居榜首， 主导了宁德时代港股IPO、三花智控港股IPO、海天味业港股IPO、霸王茶姬美股IPO等具有重 大市场影响力的标杆项目。 | 2025年上半年中资企业境外IPO承销规模排名 | | --- | | 排名 | 全球协调人/账 簿管理人 | 承销规模(亿美元) | 市场份额(%) | 项目数量 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 中等公司 | 11.60 | 8.63 | 19 | | 2 | 摩根士丹利 | 10.02 | 7.45 | 7 | | 3 | 高盛 | 9.00 | 6.70 | 6 | | 4 | 瑞银 | 8.92 | 6.63 | 4 | | 5 | 华泰证券 | 7.16 | 5.32 | 9 | | 6 | 中国银行 | 6.57 ...

科创债新规以来，券商除了自身发行科创债以外，还在积极发挥中介机构作用，帮助各类企业发行科创 债。 "作为宁波轨交科创债牵头主承销商，我们深度挖掘客户亮点，吸引银行机构、保险公司、基金公司等 多家投资机构踊跃参与。"中信建投证券称。 证券时报记者了解到，一方面，券商在承销科创债过程中第一时间响应政策，论证客户的科创属性，并 通过广泛推介询价，充分挖掘市场需求及资源，引入基石投资者；另一方面，券商还积极开展科创债的 做市报价服务，提升科创债市场流动性。 同时，监管对于券商的展业评价也将进一步完善。近日，中国人民银行、中国证监会就支持发行科技创 新债券有关事宜公告称，"建立科技创新债券专项承销评价体系和做市机制，组织做市商为科技创新债 券提供专门做市报价服务，建立承销、做市联动机制。提高科技创新债券承销、做市在承销商、做市商 评价体系中的权重。" 5月8日，中信建投作为牵头主承销商及簿记管理人，助力中国石化集团资本有限公司（下称"石化资 本"）成功发行新一期科技创新公司债券。 "我们与石化资本持续密切关注政策走向，第一时间响应政策号召，最终成功发行了相关支持政策发布 后的首单央企科技创新公司债券。"中信建投证券表示 ...

本报记者 于宏 在券商国际化战略纵深推进的背景下，券商也进一步加码布局跨境金融业务，通过旗下国际子公司开展 中资离岸债的承销。数据显示，上半年，国泰君安国际位居券商承销中资离岸债金额榜首，共承销了 155只债券，总承销金额43.1亿美元；中金国际、中信里昂、中信建投国际的承销金额分别为27.1亿美 元、26.7亿美元、23.2亿美元，位居前列。 科创债业务成亮点 值得注意的是，科创债承销成为券商上半年债券承销"成绩单"中的亮点之一。自5月份债市"科技板"启 航以来，券商积极响应政策号召，踊跃参与科创债的发行与承销工作，发挥债券市场服务实体经济功 能，支持金融"活水"精准流向科技创新企业。 数据显示，自5月7日以来，截至上半年末，共有54家券商参与了科创债的承销，合计承销科创债 3282.82亿元。其中，中信证券承销金额位列第1名，承销科创债数量为118只，承销金额为480.3亿元； 中信建投、国泰海通承销金额分别为449.8亿元、318.6亿元；中金公司、华泰联合证券承销金额均超200 亿元。 东吴证券固收首席分析师李勇在接受《证券日报》记者采访时表示："科创债市场的发展，有助于拓宽 券商投行债券承销业务的增 ...

Core Viewpoint - In the first half of 2025, the securities industry significantly supported the development of the real economy, with A-share equity underwriting amounting to over 700 billion yuan, while the competitive landscape among leading brokers has changed due to strategic mergers and consolidations [1][2]. Group 1: Equity Underwriting Performance - The total A-share equity underwriting amount for brokers reached 709.85 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, driven by major banks completing significant A-share stock issuances [2]. - Guotai Junan, resulting from a strategic merger, led the underwriting scale with 123.38 billion yuan, surpassing the traditional leaders "Three Zhong and One Hua" [2][3]. - The top five brokers accounted for 68% of the total equity underwriting market share, highlighting the continued prominence of leading firms [2]. Group 2: IPO and Refinance Underwriting - The total underwriting amount for IPOs was 38.00 billion yuan, with CITIC Securities leading at 8.43 billion yuan [2]. - In the refinancing sector, brokers underwrote a total of 641.58 billion yuan in private placements, with Guotai Junan and CITIC Securities taking the top spots [3]. - The competition in the convertible bond market intensified, with total underwriting reaching 30.28 billion yuan, led by CITIC Securities [3]. Group 3: Market Trends and Future Outlook - The revenue from investment banking services showed signs of stabilization, with a year-on-year increase of 5.39% in the first quarter [4]. - Analysts expect that the deepening reforms in the capital market will enhance the activity of IPOs and mergers and acquisitions, contributing to the recovery of investment banking services [4][5]. - The concentration of investment banking business is anticipated to increase further, particularly among leading brokers with superior resources and service capabilities [5].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for small-cap growth style in July, with a recommendation for sectors such as consumer services, real estate, and textiles to perform well in the short term [1][5][10] Core Insights - The macroeconomic indicators show a mixed impact on different asset classes, with PPI underperforming and CPI exceeding expectations negatively affecting the stock market, while industrial value-added and PMI exceeding expectations positively influence the commodity market [1][3] - The report highlights a bullish signal for the stock market based on timing indicators, suggesting a potential upward trend, while the bond market shows signs of overheating risk [1][4] - The report emphasizes the importance of sector rotation strategies, recommending industries that may outperform in the current fast rotation environment [1][5] Summary by Sections Macroeconomic Analysis - The report notes that the latest PPI data was below expectations, while CPI has exceeded expectations for two consecutive months, leading to a negative impact on the stock market [3] - Industrial value-added has exceeded expectations for three consecutive months, along with a favorable exchange rate and PMI, positively impacting the commodity market [3] Timing Indicators - Three indicators triggered bullish signals for the stock market, while three bearish signals were noted for the bond market, indicating potential upward movement for stocks and caution for bonds [3][4] Sector Rotation Strategy - Recommended sectors for July include comprehensive, light manufacturing, real estate, building materials, consumer services, and textiles, which are expected to perform well in the short term [1][5] Style Analysis - The report indicates that small-cap growth style is expected to outperform in July, with a notable shift towards growth style over value style [6][7] - The report highlights that the sentiment and market conditions favor growth style, with a total score of 1.32 indicating a strong preference for growth [7] Quantitative Strategy Performance - The report details that small-cap strategies have outperformed major small-cap indices, with specific strategies yielding returns of 11.4% and 9.6% [8][9] - The growth-oriented strategies have shown significant returns, with one strategy yielding 9.4% in June and over 22% in the first half of the year [9] Market Outlook for July - The report maintains a positive outlook for July, suggesting that both growth-oriented and small-cap strategies still present opportunities despite some valuation concerns [10]

消息人士：中金公司、中信和高盛正在筹划立讯精密在香港的股票发售。 ...