公司评级 [Table_Invest] 买入-A/买入-H 合理价值 55.63 元/55.74 港元 2024-03-26 (600036.SH/03968.HK):深度 不良率下降，拨备覆盖率稳健 ⚫ 招商银行发布 2024 年一季报，24Q1 营收、PPOP、归母净利润同比增 长-4.65%、-6.1%、-2.0%，分别较 23 年变动-3.01pct、-4.02pct、-8.19pct， 累计业绩驱动上，规模增长、拨备计提、其他非息、有效税率是主要正 贡献，息差、中收、成本收入比等为主要负贡献。 产端，24 年贷款收益率较 23 年下降 19bp，主要受 LPR 下调及存量房 贷利率下调，叠加有效信贷需求不足，新发生业务收益率同比下行影响； 负债端，计息负债成本率较 23 年上行 2bp，其中存款成本率上行 1bp， 同业负债成本率上行 17bp。展望全年，重定价压力主要集中在 Q1，后 续季度虽还受新发贷款利率影响，但预计资产端收益率降幅将明显收 窄，负债端仍有刚性，关注去年存款挂牌利率多轮下调成效，预计全年 息差仍承压，降幅逐季收窄。（2）中收增长承压。24Q1 中收同比下降 19.4%，主要受银 ...

证券研究报告 | 季报点评 买入（维持） 股票信息 行业 股份制银行 前次评级 买入 4 月 29 日收盘价(元) 34.88 总市值(百万元) 879,668.21 总股本(百万股) 25,219.85 其中自由流通股(%) 81.80 30 日日均成交量(百万股) 63.66 股价走势 息差降幅边际收窄，资产质量保持稳健 业绩：整体仍有压力，息差边际降幅收窄。 1、利息净收入：24Q1 同比下降 6.2%，增速较 23 年报下降 4.5pc，主要 是 Q1 息差（2.02%）同比下降 27bps 拖累，但边际来看，24Q1 息差较 23Q4 单季度息差仅下降 2bps，为 2023 年以来单季度最低降幅。 2、手续费及佣金净收入：24Q1 同比降 2.3%，财富管理（-32.6%）、资 产管理（-6.3%）、托管（-15.8%）、银行卡（-15.8%）均表现不佳，仅 结算手续费收入（占手续费 18%）同比增长 5.2%。 资产质量：地产不良继续改善，零售风险指标仍有波动。 A、对公地产：不良率 4.82%，较年初改善 19bps，连续三个季度改善， 趋势稳定。 2）动态来看，公司口径下年化不良贷款生成率 ...

银行 强烈推荐（维持） 行情走势图 | --- | --- | |----------|-------------------------------------------| | | | | 研究助理 | S1060520080003 YUANZHEQI052@pingan.com.cn | 盈利小幅负增，居民金融需求不足对收入端影响持续。招行 2024 年 1 季 度归母净利润同比下降 1.96%，营收下滑是拖累盈利的主要因素，24 年 1 季度营收同比下滑 4.65%，增速较 23 年下降 3 个百分点，拆分因素来看， 我们认为主要还是居民端金融需求的不足叠加此前监管减费政策的影响 拖累了营收的增长，一方面净利息收入受息差的制约和零售贷款增长乏力 的影响，同比增速较 23 年下降 4.6 个百分点至-6.2%，另一方面，中收受 财富管理板块下滑的影响（24 年 1 季度财富管理中收同比下降 33%）， 同比下降 19.4%，共同对营收的增长带来约束。收入端相对表现积极的是 其他非息收入，在债市利率下行的背景下表现良好，同比增长 40.1%。展 望全年，我们认为招行作为国内零售银行龙头，其盈利的修复仍需等 ...

公 司 季 报 点 评 2024 年 4 月 30 日 零售承压拖累营收，资产质量保持稳健 股价：34.88 元 · 招商银行 == 沪深300指数 | --- | --- | |----------|-------------------------------------------| | | | | 研究助理 | S1060520080003 YUANZHEQI052@pingan.com.cn | 平安观点： | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------------|---------|---------|--------------------------|---------|---------| | | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 营业净收入 ( 百万元 ) | 339,102 | 332,881 | 334,977 | 352,450 | 377,230 | | YOY(%) | 3.7 | -1.8 | 0.6 | 5.2 | 7.0 | | 归母净利润 ( 百万元 ) ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for China Merchants Bank is maintained at "Buy - A" with a 6-month target price of 41.03 CNY, compared to the current stock price of 34.88 CNY [7]. Core Views - The bank's performance in Q1 2024 showed a stable growth mainly driven by asset expansion and non-interest income growth, although net interest margin has slightly narrowed, impacting profit growth [4][19]. - The overall credit growth for China Merchants Bank in Q1 2024 was 7.71%, with new credit issuance of 267.1 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 14.7 billion CNY [5][19]. - The bank's asset quality remains robust, with a non-performing loan (NPL) ratio of 0.92%, a slight decrease from the previous quarter [11][24]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2024, the bank's revenue growth was -4.65%, and net profit growth was -1.96%, aligning with expectations [19]. - The average yield on interest-earning assets was 3.65%, down 21 basis points year-on-year [6][33]. - Non-interest income decreased by 2.3% year-on-year, but other non-interest income grew by 40% due to increased investment income [9]. Credit and Loan Performance - The bank's credit growth was primarily supported by corporate loans, while retail loans showed weaker growth [5][19]. - The NPL generation rate was 1.03%, with new NPLs amounting to 16.27 billion CNY, indicating a balanced pace of NPL generation and disposal [26]. Asset Quality - The bank's asset quality indicators remain strong, with a slight increase in the attention and overdue rates for retail loans, particularly in housing mortgages and credit cards [12][24]. - The overall credit risk is manageable, maintaining a competitive position within the industry [11][27]. Future Outlook - The bank is expected to face challenges in revenue growth due to pressures on net interest margin and middle-income growth, but its strong asset quality and high dividend yield present it as a value stock for medium to long-term investment [27][53].

| --- | --- | |--------------------------------------|------------| | 相关报告 \n业绩实现稳健增长—招商银 | 2024-01-20 | | 行 2023 年业绩快报点评 | | | 砥砺前行—招商银行 2023 | 2023-10-28 | | 年三季报点评 | | | 基本面弱改善—招商 银 行 | 2023-08-27 | | 2023 年中报点评 | | | 零售弱修复，不良生成速度 | 2023-04-26 | | 放缓 —招商银行 2023 年一 | | | 季报点评 | | | 高性价比在逐步凸显—招商 | 2023-03-26 | | 银行 2022 年报点评 | | 本报告版权属于国投证券股份有限公司，各项声明请参见报告尾页。 1 本报告仅供 Choice 东方财富 使用，请勿传阅。 ②计息负债成本率环比持平。今年一季度，招行负债成本为 1.75%， 同比提升 7bps，环比保持不变。其中存款成本环比微降 1bps，预计 主要受益于利率定价机制持续下调长期限定期存款成本的政策；应付 债券成本环比下降 26bps，主要受益 ...

| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|-------------------------------------|-------|-------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------|-------| | | ➢ \n[Table_Profit] 重要财务指标 | | | 风险因素：经济超预期下行，政策出台不及预期，资产质量显著恶化等 \n 2022A 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E | | | | | 营业收入（亿元） | | | 3448 3391 3479 3642 3911 | | | | | 增长率（ %） | | | 4.08 -1.64 2.59 4.69 7.38 | | | | | 归属母公司股东净利 润（亿元） | | | 1380 1466 1541 1639 1772 | | | | | 增长率（ %） | | | 15.08 6. ...

Financial Performance - Net profit attributable to shareholders for Q1 2024 was RMB 38,077 million, a decrease of 1.96% from RMB 38,839 million in Q1 2023[10]. - Operating income for Q1 2024 was RMB 86,420 million, down 4.64% from RMB 90,625 million in the same period last year[10]. - The basic earnings per share for ordinary shareholders was RMB 1.51, a decrease of 1.95% from RMB 1.54 in Q1 2023[10]. - The annualized return on average equity for ordinary shareholders was 16.08%, down from 18.43% in the previous year[10]. - For Q1 2024, the group achieved operating net income of CNY 86.42 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 4.64%[50]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders was CNY 38.08 billion, down 1.96% year-on-year[50]. - Net interest income for the quarter was CNY 52.00 billion, a decline of 6.15% year-on-year, accounting for 60.17% of total operating income[53]. - Non-interest income was CNY 34.42 billion, down 2.26% year-on-year, with net fees and commissions decreasing by 19.44% to CNY 20.20 billion[55]. Assets and Liabilities - Total assets as of March 31, 2024, reached RMB 11,520,226 million, an increase of 4.46% compared to RMB 11,028,483 million at the end of 2023[10]. - The total liabilities increased to RMB 10,394,735 million as of March 31, 2024, compared to RMB 9,942,754 million at the end of 2023[5]. - The equity attributable to shareholders rose to RMB 1,118,965 million, reflecting a 3.96% increase from RMB 1,076,370 million[10]. - Customer deposits totaled CNY 8,440.100 billion, marking a 3.49% increase compared to the end of last year[26]. - Total liabilities stood at CNY 10,394.735 billion, which is a 4.55% increase from the previous year-end[26]. - The total amount of loans and advances reached CNY 6,815.827 billion, reflecting a growth of 4.72% year-on-year[26]. Cash Flow and Liquidity - Cash flow from operating activities showed a significant improvement, with a net cash outflow of RMB (1,208) million compared to RMB (12,618) million in the same period last year, indicating a 90.43% increase[10]. - The net cash flow from investing activities was RMB 1.119 billion, a significant improvement from a net outflow of RMB 91.875 billion in the same period last year[110]. - The net cash flow from financing activities was RMB 129.954 billion, compared to RMB 43.944 billion in Q1 2023[110]. - The company reported a net increase in cash and cash equivalents of RMB 129.865 billion during the quarter, compared to a decrease of RMB 60.549 billion in the same period last year[110]. - The average liquidity coverage ratio for Q1 2024 was 160.96%, an increase of 1.14 percentage points from the previous quarter[119]. Risk Management and Asset Quality - The non-performing loan ratio for corporate loans was 1.15%, while the ratio for retail loans was 0.91%[41]. - The company plans to enhance risk management mechanisms and focus on key risk areas, particularly in the real estate sector, to ensure asset quality stability[70]. - The company disposed of non-performing loans amounting to RMB 15,288 million during the reporting period, including regular write-offs of RMB 7,072 million and recoveries of RMB 2,125 million[69]. - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio remained stable at 0.91% as of March 31, 2024, with a non-performing loan balance of CNY 58.288 billion[89]. - The company generated new non-performing loans of CNY 16.265 billion in Q1 2024, with an annualized NPL generation rate of 1.03%[90]. Capital Adequacy - The core tier 1 capital ratio improved to 14.07%, an increase of 0.34 percentage points from the previous year-end, while the total capital adequacy ratio rose to 18.20%[72]. - The tier 1 capital adequacy ratio under the advanced approach is 16.47%, up 0.77 percentage points from 15.70% at the end of 2023[74]. - The company maintained a leverage ratio of 8.11%, a slight decrease of 0.15 percentage points from the previous period[72]. - The loan loss provision balance was RMB 264,762 million, an increase of RMB 3,360 million from the previous year-end, with a provision coverage ratio of 454.23%[69]. Strategic Goals and Business Development - The strategic goal of the company is to build a "value bank," focusing on balanced development in quality, efficiency, and scale[25]. - The company plans to continue focusing on enhancing customer deposits and interbank placements to improve liquidity and operational efficiency[10]. - The company will continue to invest in financial technology and promote the application of artificial intelligence to enhance operational efficiency[32]. - The company’s retail loans accounted for 53.38% of the total loan and advance balance, with a non-performing loan balance of RMB 31,112 million[64].

Liquidity and Capital Management - The liquidity coverage ratio for Q1 2024 is 160.96%, an increase of 1.14 percentage points from the previous quarter, primarily due to the increase in the scale of high-quality liquid assets [19]. - The average value of high-quality liquid assets for Q1 2024 is RMB 2,059,124 million [26]. - The liquidity coverage ratio is supported by high-quality liquid assets amounting to RMB 2,052,110 million [39]. - The group aims to maintain a strong capital adequacy ratio, with the latest figures reflecting ongoing compliance with regulatory requirements [19]. - Core Tier 1 capital net amount is RMB 948,069 million, with a capital adequacy ratio of 18.20% [39]. - Risk-weighted assets total RMB 6,738,504 million, with a Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio of 16.30% [39]. - The leverage ratio stands at 8.11%, exceeding the minimum requirement of 4.00% [58]. - The bank's additional Tier 1 capital buffer requirement is 3.25% [39]. Financial Performance - Total consolidated assets as of March 31, 2024, amount to RMB 11,520,226 million [23]. - The adjusted on-balance and off-balance sheet asset balance is RMB 13,549,939 million [23]. - The bank's net profit for the first quarter of 2024 is projected to grow by 10% year-on-year [39]. - The bank's non-performing loan ratio remains stable at 1.5%, indicating effective risk management practices [39]. Deposits and Cash Flow - Retail deposits and small enterprise customer deposits total RMB 3,947,616 million, with stable deposits at RMB 905,484 million [26]. - The net cash outflow from retail deposits and small enterprise customer deposits is RMB 349,486 million [26]. Risk Management and Compliance - The group continues to focus on enhancing its liquidity risk management framework in line with regulatory guidelines [19]. - The group has established a robust internal control process for information disclosure, ensuring the accuracy and reliability of third-pillar disclosures [36]. - The report indicates that the group is committed to ongoing improvements in its financial performance and risk management practices [19]. Strategic Initiatives - The bank plans to expand its market presence in Southeast Asia through strategic partnerships and acquisitions [39]. - The bank is investing in new technology for digital banking services, aiming to enhance customer experience and operational efficiency [39].

Financial Performance - Net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 1.96% to RMB 38,077 million in Q1 2024 from RMB 38,839 million in Q1 2023[29]. - Operating income decreased by 4.65% to RMB 86,417 million in Q1 2024 compared to RMB 90,636 million in Q1 2023[29]. - Basic and diluted earnings per share decreased to RMB 1.51 in Q1 2024 from RMB 1.54 in Q1 2023, a decline of 1.95%[29]. - The group’s net profit for the first quarter of 2024 was RMB 492,512 million, an increase from RMB 444,280 million in the same period of 2023[101]. - Net profit for Q1 2024 was 35,693 million RMB, a slight decrease of 0.65% from 35,926 million RMB in Q1 2023[124]. - Total operating income for Q1 2024 was 78,698 million RMB, down 4.3% from 82,414 million RMB in Q1 2023[107]. Asset and Liability Management - As of March 31, 2024, the total assets of the company reached RMB 11,520,226 million, an increase from RMB 11,028,483 million at the end of 2023, representing a growth of 4.45%[3]. - The total liabilities increased to RMB 10,394,735 million from RMB 9,942,754 million, marking a growth of 4.55%[6]. - The total equity attributable to shareholders increased by 3.96% to RMB 1,118,965 million as of March 31, 2024, compared to RMB 1,076,370 million at the end of 2023[33]. - The total loans and advances amounted to CNY 6,815.83 billion, reflecting a growth of 4.72% year-on-year[65]. - The total customer deposits were CNY 8,440.10 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 3.49%[72]. Capital Adequacy and Risk Management - The core Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio improved to 11.82%, up 0.44 percentage points from 11.38% at the end of 2023[15]. - The company’s capital adequacy ratio stood at 18.20%, with a core Tier 1 capital ratio of 14.07%, meeting regulatory requirements[93]. - The weighted average return on equity decreased by 2.35 percentage points to 16.08% in Q1 2024 from 18.43% in Q1 2023[29]. - The group reported a risk-adjusted return on capital (RAROC) of 26.47% for the first quarter of 2024, maintaining a high level[95]. Customer and Market Growth - The number of retail customers reached 199 million, a growth of 1.02% compared to the end of 2023[17]. - The total assets under management (AUM) for retail customers increased to RMB 138,571.87 billion, up by RMB 5,360.56 billion, or 4.02%[17]. - The number of high-net-worth clients (with average total assets of RMB 500,000 or more) grew to 4.8691 million, an increase of 4.92%[17]. Non-Performing Loans and Credit Quality - The non-performing loan balance was CNY 62.63 billion, with a non-performing loan ratio of 0.92%, down 0.03 percentage points from the previous year[65]. - The total non-performing loan balance was CNY 62.630 billion, an increase of CNY 1.051 billion from the end of the previous year, with an NPL ratio of 0.92%, down 0.03 percentage points[80]. - The overdue loan balance was CNY 89.300 billion, an increase of CNY 7.317 billion from the end of the previous year, with an overdue loan ratio of 1.31%, up 0.05 percentage points[80]. - The loan loss provision balance reached RMB 264.76 billion, an increase of RMB 3.36 billion from the end of the previous year, with a provision coverage ratio of 454.23%[89]. Cash Flow and Liquidity - The net cash flow from operating activities improved significantly, with a net outflow of RMB 1,208 million in Q1 2024 compared to RMB 12,618 million in Q1 2023, a 90.43% increase[29][35]. - The total cash and cash equivalents at the end of Q1 2024 reached RMB 729,079 million, up from RMB 504,940 million in Q1 2023, indicating an increase of about 44.5%[126]. - The liquidity coverage ratio for Q1 2024 averaged 160.96%, which is an increase of 1.14 percentage points compared to the previous quarter, primarily due to the growth in high-quality liquid assets[135].