申万宏源研究 上海市南京东路99号 | +86 21 2329 7818 www.swsresearch.com 简单金融 成就梦想 食品饮料 | 公司研究 茶饮料实现高增，盈利能力持续提升 2024年4月27日 农夫山泉 (09633:HK) 增持 事件：公司发布 2023年年报，报告期内公司实现 422.67 亿元，同增 28.4%。实现归属于公司股 东净利润120.79亿元，同比增长42.4%，公司业绩超市场预期。公司拟派息每股0.75元，分红率 维持 为69.8%。 投资评级与估值：考虑公司产品矩阵稳健增长，产品力和渠道力持续提升，上调24-25年盈利预测， 新增 26年预测，预测 2024-2026年公司归母净利润为 139、165、193亿元（24-25年前次为 市场数据：2024年4月26日 112亿、126 亿），分别同比 15%、18%、17%，最新收盘价对应 24-26年PE 分别为 33、28、 收盘价（港币） 44.85 24x，维持增持评级。公司卡位 2元价格带、差异化定位及中大规格布局等多重推力下，核心瓶装 恒生中国企业指数 6120.37 水业务有望持续收获市场份额。通过前瞻布局 ...

Company Overview - Nongfu Spring Co., Ltd. was established in 1996 and is a leader in the packaged drinking water and beverage industry in China[3] - The company was transformed into a joint stock company in June 2001 and listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in September 2020 (stock code: 9633.HK)[3] - Nongfu Spring's major products include packaged drinking water, tea beverage, functional beverage, and juice beverage[3] - The company has a nationwide sales network covering all provinces, municipalities, and prefecture-level administrative divisions across China[4] - Nongfu Spring implements a multi-brand strategy and has built a super brand in the Chinese soft beverage market[4] - The company's registered office and headquarters are located at No. 181 Geyazhuang, Xihu District, Hangzhou, Zhejiang, PRC[8] - The principal place of business in Hong Kong is Room F, 6/F, CNT Tower, 338 Hennessy Road, Wan Chai, Hong Kong[11] - The company's website is www.nongfuspring.com[9] Financial Performance - Total revenue for 2023 reached RMB 42,667 million, a 28.4% increase from 2022[31] - Net profit attributable to owners of the parent in 2023 was RMB 12,079 million, up from RMB 8,495 million in 2022[31] - Operating cash flow in 2023 increased by 43.7% year-on-year to RMB 17,305 million[31] - The company proposed a final cash dividend of RMB 0.75 per share for 2023, totaling approximately RMB 8,435 million[31] - Gross profit for 2023 was RMB 25,407 million, compared to RMB 19,095 million in 2022[29] - Total assets as of December 31, 2023, were RMB 49,137 million, up from RMB 39,255 million in 2022[29] - Cash and bank balances at the end of 2023 stood at RMB 24,125 million, a significant increase from RMB 15,211 million in 2022[29] - Earnings per share for 2023 were RMB 1.07, compared to RMB 0.76 in 2022[29] - Total equity as of December 31, 2023, was RMB 28,571 million, up from RMB 24,084 million in 2022[29] - Revenue increased by 28.4% to RMB42,667 million in 2023 compared to RMB33,239 million in 2022[73] - Gross profit rose by 33.1% to RMB25,407 million in 2023 from RMB19,095 million in 2022[73] - Gross profit margin improved by 2.1 percentage points to 59.5% in 2023[73] - Selling and distribution expenses increased by 18.7% to RMB9,284 million in 2023, accounting for 21.8% of total revenue[74] - Profit for the year surged by 42.2% to RMB12,079 million in 2023 from RMB8,495 million in 2022[84] - Long-term bank deposits, pledged deposits, cash, and bank balances increased by 32.7% to RMB25,639 million as of December 31, 2023[86] - Inventories grew by 46.7% to RMB3,092 million as of December 31, 2023, with inventory turnover days increasing to 55.0 days[88] - Trade receivables and bills increased to RMB547 million as of December 31, 2023, with turnover days decreasing to 4.4 days[89] - Trade payables and bills rose to RMB1,770 million as of December 31, 2023, with turnover days increasing to 33.8 days[90] - Capital gearing ratio increased to 11.2% as of December 31, 2023, up from 10.5% in 2022[91] - Trade and bills receivables increased from RMB479 million in 2022 to RMB547 million in 2023, with turnover days decreasing from 5.2 days to 4.4 days[93] - Trade and bills payables increased from RMB1,425 million in 2022 to RMB1,770 million in 2023, with turnover days increasing from 33.3 days to 33.8 days[94] - The gearing ratio increased from 10.5% in 2022 to 11.2% in 2023, primarily due to increased use of bills receivable financing[95] - The Group held HK$1,536 million, US$462 million, and other foreign currencies, with exchange gains of approximately RMB46 million in 2023[97] - Capital commitments amounted to approximately RMB4,437 million as of December 31, 2023, mainly for construction of production plants and purchase of production equipment[98] - The Group entered into an investment agreement for the "Nongfu Spring Jiande Drinking Water and Beverage Comprehensive Industrial Base Project" with a total investment of RMB5 billion[105] - As of December 31, 2023, the Group had utilized HK$4,900 million of the IPO proceeds, accounting for 52.26% of all raised funds, with HK$4,477 million remaining unutilized[111] - Brand building utilized HK$1,003 million of the IPO proceeds, with HK$1,341 million remaining unutilized and expected to be used by December 31, 2024[112] - Purchasing sales equipment utilized HK$371 million of the IPO proceeds, with HK$1,973 million remaining unutilized and expected to be used by December 31, 2024[112] - Purchasing production facilities and building new factories utilized HK$1,438 million of the IPO proceeds, with HK$437 million remaining unutilized and expected to be used by December 31, 2024[112] - The Group has adequate financial resources to continue its operation in the foreseeable future, prepared on a going concern basis[113][115] Product Performance - Packaged drinking water products accounted for 47.5% of total revenue, while beverage products accounted for 51.7% of total revenue in 2023[42] - Tea beverage products revenue increased to RMB12,659 million in 2023, representing 29.7% of total revenue, up from 20.8% in 2022[43] - Functional beverage products revenue was RMB4,902 million in 2023, maintaining an 11.5% share of total revenue[43] - Juice beverage products revenue was RMB3,533 million in 2023, accounting for 8.3% of total revenue[43] - Other products, including soda water and fresh fruits, contributed RMB1,311 million, representing 3.0% of total revenue in 2023[43] - The revenue from packaged drinking water products in 2023 was RMB20,262 million, a 10.9% increase compared to 2022, accounting for 47.5% of total revenue[45][46] - The tea beverage products revenue in 2023 was RMB12,659 million, an 83.3% increase compared to 2022, accounting for 29.7% of total revenue[52][53] - Functional beverage products revenue in 2023 was RMB4,902 million, a 27.7% increase compared to 2022, accounting for 11.5% of total revenue[57][58] - Juice beverage products revenue in 2023 was RMB3,533 million, a 22.7% increase compared to 2022, accounting for 8.3% of total revenue[59][60] - Other products revenue in 2023 was RMB1,311 million, a slight decrease of 3.1% compared to 2022, accounting for 3.0% of total revenue[62][63] Marketing and Branding - The company promoted high-quality water sources through advertisements and "Source-tracking" campaigns, emphasizing natural and healthy consumer perception[47][48] - During the Chinese New Year of 2023, the company launched a zodiac edition of natural mineral water and co-branded with Disney for limited edition products[49][50] - In the second half of 2023, the company upgraded the 4L "handle bottle" natural water product, focusing on ergonomic design and cooking convenience[51] - "Oriental Leaf" introduced new flavors and packaging, and launched a series of short films themed around the twenty-four solar terms to promote Chinese tea culture[54] - "Tea π" engaged in a creative label design collaboration with global illustrators and consumers, resulting in the "Tea π Yearbook 2023: Wonderful World Illustrations"[55] - "Scream" beverage collaborated with the Chinese University Basketball League to enhance its sports expertise connotation[57][58] - "Victory" vitamin water launched new prune and peach flavor and mixed pomelo flavor, and sponsored the V-Break Dance Battle[57][58] - "17.5°" juice launched seasonal fresh orange juice with a 36-hour integrated procedure from picking to bottling[59][60] - "Water Soluble C100" launched about 30,000,000 crossover editions with The Little Prince IP[61] - "TANBING" coffee launched 250ml mini-bottled coffee and exclusive jasmine tea coffee with Sam's Club[63][64] - "Big Lemon" beverages were launched in April 2023 with freshly squeezed lemon juice and retained lemon peel oil[63][64] - "Oriental Leaf" launched "Black Oolong Tea" with premium oolong tea from Northern Fujian[65][68] Corporate Governance - The company's 2022 Annual General Meeting was held on May 16, 2023, and the 2023 Annual General Meeting is scheduled for May 21, 2024[5] - H Shares were listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on September 8, 2020[8] - The reporting period for the annual report is from January 1, 2023, to December 31, 2023[7] - The latest practicable date for the annual report is April 14, 2024[6] - The company renewed the Purchasing Framework Agreement with Yangshengtang on December 14, 2022[6] - The company renewed the Basic R&D and Test Service Framework Agreement with Yangshengtang and YST Natural Medicine Research on December 14, 2022[6] - The over-allotment option allows the company to issue up to 58,234,600 additional H Shares at the offer price[7] - The Board consists of nine members, including four executive directors, two non-executive directors, and three independent non-executive directors[152][154] - Mr. Zhong Shanshan serves as both Chairman and General Manager, a structure deemed beneficial for management[147][149] - The Board ensures a balance of power and authority with experienced and high-caliber individuals[150] - The Board is responsible for determining business strategies and investment plans, and implementing resolutions passed at Shareholders' general meetings[157] - The Board has established three special committees: Audit Committee, Nomination Committee, and Remuneration Committee[158] - The Company has set up the Office of Public Policy & Sustainable Development to assist in identifying and monitoring sustainable development risks[158] - The Chairman of the Board and General Manager roles are both performed by Mr. Zhong Shanshan[160] - The Board revised the Articles of Association and the Rules of Procedure during the Reporting Period[161] - The Office of Public Policy & Sustainable Development revised the Whistleblowing Policy and the Anti-Corruption Policy[161] - Mr. Zhong Shanshan, Ms. Wu Limin, Mr. Xiang Xiansong, and Ms. Han Linyou were elected as executive Directors of the eighth session of the Board[163] - Ms. Liu Min and Mr. Liu Xiyue were elected as shareholder representative Supervisors of the eighth session of the Supervisory Committee[164] - Mr. Rao Minghong was re-elected as the employee representative Supervisor of the eighth session of the Supervisory Committee on March 2, 2023[164] - The term of office for the eighth session of the Board and Supervisory Committee is three years commencing from the date of the 2022 AGM[163][164] - Mr. Zhong Shanshan was appointed as the chairman of the eighth session of the Board and General Manager of the Company on May 16, 2023[166] - Ms. Wu Limin was appointed as the Chief Financial Officer of the Company on May 16, 2023[166] - Mr. Xiang Xiansong was appointed as the General Manager of the Sales & Marketing Center of the Company on May 16, 2023[166] - Ms. Han Linyou was appointed as the Board Secretary of the Company on May 16, 2023[166] - Ms. Liu Min was appointed as the chairman of the eighth session of the Supervisory Committee on May 16, 2023[167] - Ms. Mak Po Man Cherie resigned as one of the joint company secretaries of the Company on February 13, 2024[167] - Ms. Han Linyou was appointed as the sole company secretary of the Company on February 13, 2024[167] - Ms. Xue Lian resigned as a non-executive Director of the Company in March 2024 due to family reasons[169] - Ms. Liu Min resigned as a Supervisor and the chairman of the Supervisory Committee of the Company in March 2024 due to changes of her work[169] - Mr. Rao Minghong resigned as a Supervisor of the Company in March 2024 due to adjustment of work[169] - The Company's Audit Committee consists of three independent non-executive directors, including Mr. Stanley Yi Chang, Mr. Yang Lei Bob, and Mr. Lu Yuan, with Mr. Stanley Yi Chang serving as the chairman[181] - The Audit Committee is responsible for reviewing and supervising the Company's financial information and reporting procedures, including the completeness of financial statements and reports[182] - The Company arranged orientation training for new Directors, Supervisors, and senior management to enhance their understanding of the Listing Rules and the Corporate Governance Code[177] - All Directors participated in continuous professional development by attending training courses, conducting business research, or reading materials on corporate governance and related topics[177] - The Company's senior management reported business activities and development information to all Directors on a timely basis during Board meetings[175] - The Company ensures that Directors can seek independent professional advice upon reasonable request, with expenses covered by the Company[177] - The Audit Committee advises the Board on the appointment, renewal, replacement, or dismissal of the external audit agency[182] - The Audit Committee reviews and supervises the independence and objectivity of the external audit agency and the effectiveness of audit procedures[182] - The Audit Committee formulates and implements policies for non-audit services provided by the external audit agency[182] - The Audit Committee monitors the relationship between the Company and the external audit agency[182] - The Audit Committee held 3 meetings during the reporting period with full attendance from all members[185][186] - The Audit Committee reviewed the interim report for the six months ended June 30, 2023, confirming compliance with accounting principles and adequate disclosures[187] - The Audit Committee reviewed the annual results for the year ended December 31, 2023, finding no material deficiencies in risk management or internal control[188] - The Audit Committee recommended re-appointing Pan-China Certified Public Accountants LLP as domestic auditors and Ernst & Young as overseas auditors for 2024[188] - The Nomination Committee comprises three directors, including one executive director and two independent non-executive directors[192] - The Nomination Committee is responsible for formulating nomination procedures and standards for director candidates[192] - The Nomination Committee evaluates candidates for directors and senior management, making recommendations to the Board[193] - The Nomination Committee assesses the independence of independent non-executive directors[193] - The Nomination Committee reviews the Board's structure, size, and composition annually, recommending changes aligned with corporate strategies[194] - The Board consists of 3 female and 6 male Directors, maintaining gender diversity[198] - The gender ratio of all employees (including senior management) is approximately 70% male to 30% female as of December 31, 2023[199] - The Nomination Committee held 1 meeting during the reporting period[200] - The Company has adopted a Board diversity policy considering factors like gender, age, culture, education background, professional experience, skills, knowledge, and length of service[197] - The Nomination Committee reviews the Board diversity policy annually to ensure its effectiveness[197] - The Company's diversity policy includes monitoring, reporting, and reviewing systems to ensure successful implementation[197] - The Nomination Committee believes the Board composition satisfies the diversity policy in terms of gender, age, cultural and educational background, professional experience, skills, knowledge, and length of service[197] - The Company will continue to maintain a diverse Board and fully consider gender in the selection and development of nominees[199] - The Nomination Committee and Human Resources Center will focus on maintaining and strengthening the concern, selection, and development of high-potential female talents[199] Sustainability and Social Responsibility - Water intensity reduced by 14% compared to 2020, achieving 70% of the 2030 strategic target[133] - All water and beverage production plants obtained ISO 14001 certification[132] - 99% of plastic packaging for water and beverage products is recyclable, aiming for 100% by 2025[137] - 100% of employees participated in customized training programs[139] - National-level random inspection qualification rate reached 100% in 2023[140] - 100% of products were recognized in third-party review and certification[140] - Wastewater treatment efficiency improved significantly after upgrading or expanding ten plant stations[136] - ISO 9001 and ISO 22000 (HACCP) certifications obtained by all plants[140] - Energy structure optimization and low-carbon logistics planning reduced value chain carbon emissions[134] - Nongfu Spring actively fulfills social responsibilities through charitable activities in disaster relief, poverty alleviation, education improvement, and public sports[141][143] - The company is committed to building a sustainable supply chain with policies on supplier lifecycle management, health, safety, and environmental standards[141][143] - Nongfu Spring aims to become a leader in sustainability while providing natural and healthy products[144] - The 2023 Sustainability Report was released alongside the Annual Report, available on the Stock Exchange and company websites[144] - The global situation in 2024 remains complex, with a focus on recovery and development[142][145] - The domestic consumer market is expected to maintain steady and positive recovery, presenting opportunities for the food and beverage industry[142][145] - The company will strengthen brand building and adapt to market changes while adhering to healthy and natural product concepts

公司研究 | 动态跟踪 农夫山泉 09633.HK 买入（维持） 基本面亮眼，把握低位配置机会 股价（2024年03月28日） 42.25港元 目标价格 54.34港元 52周最高价/最低价 46.75/37.95港元 总股本/流通H股（万股） 1,124,647/503,467 H股市值（百万港币） 475,163 核心观点 国家/地区 中国 行业 食品饮料 ⚫ 根据2023年业绩公告，2023年公司实现营收426.7亿元（yoy+28%），实现归母 报告发布日期 2024年04月01日 净利润120.8亿元（yoy+42%）。23H2，公司实现营收222.0亿元（yoy+33%）、 归母净利润63.0亿元（yoy+62%），业绩延续高增。 1周 1月 3月 12月 ⚫ 茶饮料业绩高增，多元业务齐头并进。分业务，2023年包装水实现收入202.6亿 绝对表现% 0.36 -4.2 -6.53 -6.11 （yoy+11%），主要受益于疫后线下活动增加，即饮渠道恢复；茶饮料实现收入 相对表现% 2.27 -4.23 -3.58 10.28 126.6亿（yoy+83%），预计受益于东方树叶铺货率、网点数快速增 ...

2024 年 03 月 31 日 公司研究 评级：买入 (维持 ) 研究所： [Table_Title] 年完美收官，茶饮料板块高歌猛进 2023 证券分析师： 刘洁铭 S0350521110006 liujm@ghzq.com.cn 证券分析师： 秦一方 S0350523120001 ——农夫山泉（ ） 年报点评报告 09633 2023 qinyf@ghzq.com.cn 最近一年走势 事件 : 2024年3月26日，农夫山泉发布2023年年报，2023年实现营业收入 426.67亿元，同比+28.4%；归母净利120.79亿元，同比+42.2%。其中 2023年下半年实现营业收入222.05亿元，同比+33.44%；实现归母净 利63.04亿元，同比+62.19%。 投资要点 :  包装水稳健增长，茶饮料展现高景气度。2023年公司继续巩固包装 相对恒生指数表现 2024/03/28 水行业领导地位，并在茶饮料方面取得突破性的增长，包装饮用水 表现 1M 3M 12M 和饮料爽引擎格局进一步夯实。具体来看：1）包装饮用水：2023 农夫山泉 -4.2% -6.5% -6.1% 年公司饮用水实现营收20 ...

[Table_Title] 证券研究报告 农夫山泉：长期主义践行者，穿越周期的力量 公司研究 [Table_ReportDate] 2024年3月30日 [Table_ReportType] 点评报告 [T事ab件le：_S公um司m发ar布y]2023年年报，实现营业收入426.67亿元，同比+27.4%， [T农ab夫le_山St泉ock(9A6n3dR3a.HnkK]) 归母净利润120.79亿元，同比+42.2%。 点评： 投资评级 买入  包装饮用水收入稳健发展，茶饮料继续高增。2023H2 公司实现收入 上次评级 222.04亿元，同比+37.5%，环比提速。分品类来看，2023H2包装饮 用水收入同比+10.2%至98.2亿元，全年收入同比+10.9%至202.62亿 [T马ab铮le_食Au品th饮or料] 首席分析师 元，突破200亿元关口。2023H2茶饮料收入同比+104.9%至73.73亿 执业编号：S1500520110001 元，全年同比+83.3%至126.59亿元，突破100亿元关口，我们认为主 邮 箱：mazheng@cindasc.com 要系在健康的消费趋势下，无糖茶东 ...

[Table_MainInfo] 公司研究/食品 证券研究报告 农夫山泉（9633.HK）年度报告 2024年03月29日 [Table_InvestInfo] 成绩超预期，营收利润高速成长，资产负 投资评级 优于大市 维持 债表继续体现良好需求景气度 股票数据 3[T月ab28le日_S收to盘c价kI（nf港o元] ） 42.25 [Table_Summary] （52H周K股D）价 波动（港元） 37.95-46.70 投资要点： 总股本（百万股） 11246 总市值/流通市值（百万港 463917/ 207680 元）  事件：公司发布 2023 年年报，2023 年公司实现营收 426.67 亿元 相关研究 （YOY28.4%），实现归母净利润120.79亿元（YOY42.2%）。此外公司建 [《Ta继b续le看_R好e茶p饮or料tIn业fo务] 高增长及未来盈利能 议派息合计84.35亿元。 力持续向上》2024.01.18 《半年报点评：茶饮料继续表现亮眼，盈利能  成绩超预期，营收利润均高速成长，资产负债表继续体现良好需求景气度。 力仍处上行通道》2023.09.06 受益于全体员工的艰 ...

[Table_StockInfo] 买入 2024年 03月 28日 （维持） 证券研究报告•2023年报点评 当前价： 41.25港元 农夫山泉（9633.HK） 食品饮料 目标价： ——港元 双引擎格局发力，费用改善提升盈利 投资要点 西南证券研究发展中心 [T ab事le件_S：u公mm司a发ry布] 2023 年年报，2023 年全年实现主营收入 426.7 亿元，同比 [分Ta析bl师e_：Au朱th会or振] +28.4%；归母净利润120.8亿元，同比+42.2%。23H2实现主营收入222.1亿 执业证号：S1250513110001 元，同比+33.4%；归母净利润63.0亿元，同比+65.4%。 电话：023-63786049 邮箱：zhz@swsc.com.cn  包装水增长稳健，茶饮表现较优。分品类看，包装水、茶饮料、功能饮料、果 汁饮料、其他产品分别实现销售收入 202.6 亿元（+10.9%）、126.6 亿元 联系人：杜雨聪 （+83.8%）、49.0亿元（+27.7%）、35.3亿元（+22.7%）、13.1亿元(-3.2%)， 电话：023-63786049 分别占总收入 ...

智通财经APP获悉，大和发布研究报告称，重申农夫山泉(09633)“跑赢大市”评级，认为其以合理价格实现高质增长，对今明两年盈利预测上调5%至7%，目标价由46港元上调至48港元。 报告中称，公司去年下半年收入同比增长33%至220亿元人民币，盈利升62%至63亿元人民币，均超过市场预期，主要受到茶饮料收入同比增长1.05倍所推动。管理层对公司今年指引，预计在原材料价格并无大波动下，公司每个产品领域的收入都有双位数增长，毛利率稳定。 ...

交银国际研究 公司更新 消费 收盘价 目标价 潜在涨幅 2024年3月27日 港元41.25 港元58.68↑ +42.3% 农夫山泉 (9633 HK) 业绩胜于预期，茶饮持续获积极反馈；上调目标价  2023年业绩胜预期，28.3%净利润率达历史高位：2023年农夫山泉销售额 个股评级 /净利润同比增长28.4%/42.2%至427亿/121亿人民币；净利润超出一致性 预期约13%。2023 年下半年，销售额同比增速从上半年的23.3%加速至 买入 33.4%，毛利率扩大3.4个百分点（高于上半年的0.9个百分点）。受原材 料价格下降的帮助，全年毛利率提升2.1个百分点至59.5%，叠加因1）产 品结构优化（较高利润的饮料产品占比提升），和2）公司逐渐在水源地 1年股价表现 建厂，降低了物流仓储费用，带来净利润率上升2.8个百分点至28.3%， 达历史高位。派息率从去年的90%降至70%，股息率约为2%。 9633 HK 恒生指数 10% 5%  饮料产品收入贡献首超包装水，茶饮品类下半年增速超 100%：包装水 0% （占销售额48%，同比增11%）2023年销售规模突破200亿人民币，分部 -5% ...

2024年3月28日 公司研究 23H2 业绩环比提速，茶饮料增长亮眼 ——农夫山泉（9633.HK）2023 年年报点评 要点 增持（维持） 事件：农夫山泉发布2023年年报，23年实现营业收入426.7亿元，同比+28.4%； 当前价：41.25港元 归母净利润120.8亿元，同比+42.2%。其中，23H2实现营业收入222亿元，同比 +33.4%；归母净利润63亿元，同比+62.2%。 作者 茶饮料收入延续高增，包装水收入稳健增长。 分析师：陈彦彤 执业证书编号：S0930518070002 23H2公司收入同比+33.4%，环比23H1提速。分品类看，包装饮用水业务23年实 021-52523689 现收入202.62亿元，yoy+10.9%，保持稳健增长。饮料业务中，茶饮料收入延续 chenyt@ebscn.com 高增，23年实现收入126.59亿元，yoy+83.3%，主要系无糖化消费趋势下大单品[东 方树叶]持续放量；功能饮料23年实现收入49.02亿元，yoy+27.7%，主要系疫后 分析师：汪航宇 执业证书编号：S0930523070002 消费者户外运动场景恢复，产品需求提升；果汁饮料 ...