Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [1][6] Core Views - The report highlights strong growth in the beverage sector, with revenue contribution from this segment increasing from 42.14% in 2017 to 52.51% in 2023, and a CAGR of 20.4% from 2017 to 2023 [4] - The beverage industry in China showed a cumulative production of 98.1 million tons in the first half of 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.9%, indicating a favorable market environment for the company's beverage business [3][4] - The introduction of green bottle packaging for purified water is expected to enhance the company's competitiveness in the bottled water market [4] - The company has maintained a stable cost structure, with net profit margin increasing from 19.31% in 2017 to 28.15% in 2023, suggesting continued strong profitability [4] Financial Summary - The projected total revenue for the company for 2024, 2025, and 2026 is estimated at 48.065 billion, 56.586 billion, and 65.901 billion respectively, with corresponding net profits of 13.069 billion, 15.608 billion, and 18.704 billion [5] - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 1.16, 1.39, and 1.66 yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [5] - The company’s sales net profit margin is expected to remain strong, with a gross margin of approximately 58.50% in 2024, improving to 60.00% by 2026 [5][8] Valuation - The report assigns a PE valuation range of 30-35 times for 2024E, translating to a per-share value range of 34.80 to 40.60 yuan, which corresponds to a reasonable value range of 38.67 to 45.11 HKD per share [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 42.267 billion CNY for 2023, representing a year-on-year growth of 28.4%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 12.079 billion CNY, a 42.4% increase compared to the previous year, exceeding market expectations. A dividend of 0.75 CNY per share was proposed, with a payout ratio of 69.8% [4] - The investment rating and valuation have been adjusted upwards for 2024-2025 due to the robust growth of the product matrix and continuous improvement in product and channel strength. The forecasted net profits for 2024-2026 are 13.9 billion CNY, 16.5 billion CNY, and 19.3 billion CNY, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 15%, 18%, and 17% [4] - The core bottled water business is expected to continue gaining market share due to multiple driving factors, including a differentiated positioning strategy and a focus on mid-to-large size packaging. The beverage business is anticipated to grow faster than the market average due to proactive positioning in the trends of sugar-free and premium consumption [4] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - The company achieved total revenue of 42.667 billion CNY in 2023, with a projected revenue of 50.183 billion CNY in 2024, reflecting an 18% year-on-year growth. The net profit for 2023 was 12.08 billion CNY, with forecasts of 13.948 billion CNY for 2024, indicating a 15% increase [5] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 was 1.07 CNY, with projections of 1.24 CNY for 2024, and the return on equity (ROE) for 2023 was 42.28% [5] - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for 2024-2026 are projected to be 33x, 28x, and 24x, respectively, indicating a favorable valuation trend [4][5]

Company Overview - Nongfu Spring Co., Ltd. was established in 1996 and is a leader in the packaged drinking water and beverage industry in China[3] - The company was transformed into a joint stock company in June 2001 and listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in September 2020 (stock code: 9633.HK)[3] - Nongfu Spring's major products include packaged drinking water, tea beverage, functional beverage, and juice beverage[3] - The company has a nationwide sales network covering all provinces, municipalities, and prefecture-level administrative divisions across China[4] - Nongfu Spring implements a multi-brand strategy and has built a super brand in the Chinese soft beverage market[4] - The company's registered office and headquarters are located at No. 181 Geyazhuang, Xihu District, Hangzhou, Zhejiang, PRC[8] - The principal place of business in Hong Kong is Room F, 6/F, CNT Tower, 338 Hennessy Road, Wan Chai, Hong Kong[11] - The company's website is www.nongfuspring.com[9] Financial Performance - Total revenue for 2023 reached RMB 42,667 million, a 28.4% increase from 2022[31] - Net profit attributable to owners of the parent in 2023 was RMB 12,079 million, up from RMB 8,495 million in 2022[31] - Operating cash flow in 2023 increased by 43.7% year-on-year to RMB 17,305 million[31] - The company proposed a final cash dividend of RMB 0.75 per share for 2023, totaling approximately RMB 8,435 million[31] - Gross profit for 2023 was RMB 25,407 million, compared to RMB 19,095 million in 2022[29] - Total assets as of December 31, 2023, were RMB 49,137 million, up from RMB 39,255 million in 2022[29] - Cash and bank balances at the end of 2023 stood at RMB 24,125 million, a significant increase from RMB 15,211 million in 2022[29] - Earnings per share for 2023 were RMB 1.07, compared to RMB 0.76 in 2022[29] - Total equity as of December 31, 2023, was RMB 28,571 million, up from RMB 24,084 million in 2022[29] - Revenue increased by 28.4% to RMB42,667 million in 2023 compared to RMB33,239 million in 2022[73] - Gross profit rose by 33.1% to RMB25,407 million in 2023 from RMB19,095 million in 2022[73] - Gross profit margin improved by 2.1 percentage points to 59.5% in 2023[73] - Selling and distribution expenses increased by 18.7% to RMB9,284 million in 2023, accounting for 21.8% of total revenue[74] - Profit for the year surged by 42.2% to RMB12,079 million in 2023 from RMB8,495 million in 2022[84] - Long-term bank deposits, pledged deposits, cash, and bank balances increased by 32.7% to RMB25,639 million as of December 31, 2023[86] - Inventories grew by 46.7% to RMB3,092 million as of December 31, 2023, with inventory turnover days increasing to 55.0 days[88] - Trade receivables and bills increased to RMB547 million as of December 31, 2023, with turnover days decreasing to 4.4 days[89] - Trade payables and bills rose to RMB1,770 million as of December 31, 2023, with turnover days increasing to 33.8 days[90] - Capital gearing ratio increased to 11.2% as of December 31, 2023, up from 10.5% in 2022[91] - Trade and bills receivables increased from RMB479 million in 2022 to RMB547 million in 2023, with turnover days decreasing from 5.2 days to 4.4 days[93] - Trade and bills payables increased from RMB1,425 million in 2022 to RMB1,770 million in 2023, with turnover days increasing from 33.3 days to 33.8 days[94] - The gearing ratio increased from 10.5% in 2022 to 11.2% in 2023, primarily due to increased use of bills receivable financing[95] - The Group held HK$1,536 million, US$462 million, and other foreign currencies, with exchange gains of approximately RMB46 million in 2023[97] - Capital commitments amounted to approximately RMB4,437 million as of December 31, 2023, mainly for construction of production plants and purchase of production equipment[98] - The Group entered into an investment agreement for the "Nongfu Spring Jiande Drinking Water and Beverage Comprehensive Industrial Base Project" with a total investment of RMB5 billion[105] - As of December 31, 2023, the Group had utilized HK$4,900 million of the IPO proceeds, accounting for 52.26% of all raised funds, with HK$4,477 million remaining unutilized[111] - Brand building utilized HK$1,003 million of the IPO proceeds, with HK$1,341 million remaining unutilized and expected to be used by December 31, 2024[112] - Purchasing sales equipment utilized HK$371 million of the IPO proceeds, with HK$1,973 million remaining unutilized and expected to be used by December 31, 2024[112] - Purchasing production facilities and building new factories utilized HK$1,438 million of the IPO proceeds, with HK$437 million remaining unutilized and expected to be used by December 31, 2024[112] - The Group has adequate financial resources to continue its operation in the foreseeable future, prepared on a going concern basis[113][115] Product Performance - Packaged drinking water products accounted for 47.5% of total revenue, while beverage products accounted for 51.7% of total revenue in 2023[42] - Tea beverage products revenue increased to RMB12,659 million in 2023, representing 29.7% of total revenue, up from 20.8% in 2022[43] - Functional beverage products revenue was RMB4,902 million in 2023, maintaining an 11.5% share of total revenue[43] - Juice beverage products revenue was RMB3,533 million in 2023, accounting for 8.3% of total revenue[43] - Other products, including soda water and fresh fruits, contributed RMB1,311 million, representing 3.0% of total revenue in 2023[43] - The revenue from packaged drinking water products in 2023 was RMB20,262 million, a 10.9% increase compared to 2022, accounting for 47.5% of total revenue[45][46] - The tea beverage products revenue in 2023 was RMB12,659 million, an 83.3% increase compared to 2022, accounting for 29.7% of total revenue[52][53] - Functional beverage products revenue in 2023 was RMB4,902 million, a 27.7% increase compared to 2022, accounting for 11.5% of total revenue[57][58] - Juice beverage products revenue in 2023 was RMB3,533 million, a 22.7% increase compared to 2022, accounting for 8.3% of total revenue[59][60] - Other products revenue in 2023 was RMB1,311 million, a slight decrease of 3.1% compared to 2022, accounting for 3.0% of total revenue[62][63] Marketing and Branding - The company promoted high-quality water sources through advertisements and "Source-tracking" campaigns, emphasizing natural and healthy consumer perception[47][48] - During the Chinese New Year of 2023, the company launched a zodiac edition of natural mineral water and co-branded with Disney for limited edition products[49][50] - In the second half of 2023, the company upgraded the 4L "handle bottle" natural water product, focusing on ergonomic design and cooking convenience[51] - "Oriental Leaf" introduced new flavors and packaging, and launched a series of short films themed around the twenty-four solar terms to promote Chinese tea culture[54] - "Tea π" engaged in a creative label design collaboration with global illustrators and consumers, resulting in the "Tea π Yearbook 2023: Wonderful World Illustrations"[55] - "Scream" beverage collaborated with the Chinese University Basketball League to enhance its sports expertise connotation[57][58] - "Victory" vitamin water launched new prune and peach flavor and mixed pomelo flavor, and sponsored the V-Break Dance Battle[57][58] - "17.5°" juice launched seasonal fresh orange juice with a 36-hour integrated procedure from picking to bottling[59][60] - "Water Soluble C100" launched about 30,000,000 crossover editions with The Little Prince IP[61] - "TANBING" coffee launched 250ml mini-bottled coffee and exclusive jasmine tea coffee with Sam's Club[63][64] - "Big Lemon" beverages were launched in April 2023 with freshly squeezed lemon juice and retained lemon peel oil[63][64] - "Oriental Leaf" launched "Black Oolong Tea" with premium oolong tea from Northern Fujian[65][68] Corporate Governance - The company's 2022 Annual General Meeting was held on May 16, 2023, and the 2023 Annual General Meeting is scheduled for May 21, 2024[5] - H Shares were listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on September 8, 2020[8] - The reporting period for the annual report is from January 1, 2023, to December 31, 2023[7] - The latest practicable date for the annual report is April 14, 2024[6] - The company renewed the Purchasing Framework Agreement with Yangshengtang on December 14, 2022[6] - The company renewed the Basic R&D and Test Service Framework Agreement with Yangshengtang and YST Natural Medicine Research on December 14, 2022[6] - The over-allotment option allows the company to issue up to 58,234,600 additional H Shares at the offer price[7] - The Board consists of nine members, including four executive directors, two non-executive directors, and three independent non-executive directors[152][154] - Mr. Zhong Shanshan serves as both Chairman and General Manager, a structure deemed beneficial for management[147][149] - The Board ensures a balance of power and authority with experienced and high-caliber individuals[150] - The Board is responsible for determining business strategies and investment plans, and implementing resolutions passed at Shareholders' general meetings[157] - The Board has established three special committees: Audit Committee, Nomination Committee, and Remuneration Committee[158] - The Company has set up the Office of Public Policy & Sustainable Development to assist in identifying and monitoring sustainable development risks[158] - The Chairman of the Board and General Manager roles are both performed by Mr. Zhong Shanshan[160] - The Board revised the Articles of Association and the Rules of Procedure during the Reporting Period[161] - The Office of Public Policy & Sustainable Development revised the Whistleblowing Policy and the Anti-Corruption Policy[161] - Mr. Zhong Shanshan, Ms. Wu Limin, Mr. Xiang Xiansong, and Ms. Han Linyou were elected as executive Directors of the eighth session of the Board[163] - Ms. Liu Min and Mr. Liu Xiyue were elected as shareholder representative Supervisors of the eighth session of the Supervisory Committee[164] - Mr. Rao Minghong was re-elected as the employee representative Supervisor of the eighth session of the Supervisory Committee on March 2, 2023[164] - The term of office for the eighth session of the Board and Supervisory Committee is three years commencing from the date of the 2022 AGM[163][164] - Mr. Zhong Shanshan was appointed as the chairman of the eighth session of the Board and General Manager of the Company on May 16, 2023[166] - Ms. Wu Limin was appointed as the Chief Financial Officer of the Company on May 16, 2023[166] - Mr. Xiang Xiansong was appointed as the General Manager of the Sales & Marketing Center of the Company on May 16, 2023[166] - Ms. Han Linyou was appointed as the Board Secretary of the Company on May 16, 2023[166] - Ms. Liu Min was appointed as the chairman of the eighth session of the Supervisory Committee on May 16, 2023[167] - Ms. Mak Po Man Cherie resigned as one of the joint company secretaries of the Company on February 13, 2024[167] - Ms. Han Linyou was appointed as the sole company secretary of the Company on February 13, 2024[167] - Ms. Xue Lian resigned as a non-executive Director of the Company in March 2024 due to family reasons[169] - Ms. Liu Min resigned as a Supervisor and the chairman of the Supervisory Committee of the Company in March 2024 due to changes of her work[169] - Mr. Rao Minghong resigned as a Supervisor of the Company in March 2024 due to adjustment of work[169] - The Company's Audit Committee consists of three independent non-executive directors, including Mr. Stanley Yi Chang, Mr. Yang Lei Bob, and Mr. Lu Yuan, with Mr. Stanley Yi Chang serving as the chairman[181] - The Audit Committee is responsible for reviewing and supervising the Company's financial information and reporting procedures, including the completeness of financial statements and reports[182] - The Company arranged orientation training for new Directors, Supervisors, and senior management to enhance their understanding of the Listing Rules and the Corporate Governance Code[177] - All Directors participated in continuous professional development by attending training courses, conducting business research, or reading materials on corporate governance and related topics[177] - The Company's senior management reported business activities and development information to all Directors on a timely basis during Board meetings[175] - The Company ensures that Directors can seek independent professional advice upon reasonable request, with expenses covered by the Company[177] - The Audit Committee advises the Board on the appointment, renewal, replacement, or dismissal of the external audit agency[182] - The Audit Committee reviews and supervises the independence and objectivity of the external audit agency and the effectiveness of audit procedures[182] - The Audit Committee formulates and implements policies for non-audit services provided by the external audit agency[182] - The Audit Committee monitors the relationship between the Company and the external audit agency[182] - The Audit Committee held 3 meetings during the reporting period with full attendance from all members[185][186] - The Audit Committee reviewed the interim report for the six months ended June 30, 2023, confirming compliance with accounting principles and adequate disclosures[187] - The Audit Committee reviewed the annual results for the year ended December 31, 2023, finding no material deficiencies in risk management or internal control[188] - The Audit Committee recommended re-appointing Pan-China Certified Public Accountants LLP as domestic auditors and Ernst & Young as overseas auditors for 2024[188] - The Nomination Committee comprises three directors, including one executive director and two independent non-executive directors[192] - The Nomination Committee is responsible for formulating nomination procedures and standards for director candidates[192] - The Nomination Committee evaluates candidates for directors and senior management, making recommendations to the Board[193] - The Nomination Committee assesses the independence of independent non-executive directors[193] - The Nomination Committee reviews the Board's structure, size, and composition annually, recommending changes aligned with corporate strategies[194] - The Board consists of 3 female and 6 male Directors, maintaining gender diversity[198] - The gender ratio of all employees (including senior management) is approximately 70% male to 30% female as of December 31, 2023[199] - The Nomination Committee held 1 meeting during the reporting period[200] - The Company has adopted a Board diversity policy considering factors like gender, age, culture, education background, professional experience, skills, knowledge, and length of service[197] - The Nomination Committee reviews the Board diversity policy annually to ensure its effectiveness[197] - The Company's diversity policy includes monitoring, reporting, and reviewing systems to ensure successful implementation[197] - The Nomination Committee believes the Board composition satisfies the diversity policy in terms of gender, age, cultural and educational background, professional experience, skills, knowledge, and length of service[197] - The Company will continue to maintain a diverse Board and fully consider gender in the selection and development of nominees[199] - The Nomination Committee and Human Resources Center will focus on maintaining and strengthening the concern, selection, and development of high-potential female talents[199] Sustainability and Social Responsibility - Water intensity reduced by 14% compared to 2020, achieving 70% of the 2030 strategic target[133] - All water and beverage production plants obtained ISO 14001 certification[132] - 99% of plastic packaging for water and beverage products is recyclable, aiming for 100% by 2025[137] - 100% of employees participated in customized training programs[139] - National-level random inspection qualification rate reached 100% in 2023[140] - 100% of products were recognized in third-party review and certification[140] - Wastewater treatment efficiency improved significantly after upgrading or expanding ten plant stations[136] - ISO 9001 and ISO 22000 (HACCP) certifications obtained by all plants[140] - Energy structure optimization and low-carbon logistics planning reduced value chain carbon emissions[134] - Nongfu Spring actively fulfills social responsibilities through charitable activities in disaster relief, poverty alleviation, education improvement, and public sports[141][143] - The company is committed to building a sustainable supply chain with policies on supplier lifecycle management, health, safety, and environmental standards[141][143] - Nongfu Spring aims to become a leader in sustainability while providing natural and healthy products[144] - The 2023 Sustainability Report was released alongside the Annual Report, available on the Stock Exchange and company websites[144] - The global situation in 2024 remains complex, with a focus on recovery and development[142][145] - The domestic consumer market is expected to maintain steady and positive recovery, presenting opportunities for the food and beverage industry[142][145] - The company will strengthen brand building and adapt to market changes while adhering to healthy and natural product concepts

公司研究 | 动态跟踪 农夫山泉 09633.HK 买入（维持） 基本面亮眼，把握低位配置机会 股价（2024年03月28日） 42.25港元 目标价格 54.34港元 52周最高价/最低价 46.75/37.95港元 总股本/流通H股（万股） 1,124,647/503,467 H股市值（百万港币） 475,163 核心观点 国家/地区 中国 行业 食品饮料 ⚫ 根据2023年业绩公告，2023年公司实现营收426.7亿元（yoy+28%），实现归母 报告发布日期 2024年04月01日 净利润120.8亿元（yoy+42%）。23H2，公司实现营收222.0亿元（yoy+33%）、 归母净利润63.0亿元（yoy+62%），业绩延续高增。 1周 1月 3月 12月 ⚫ 茶饮料业绩高增，多元业务齐头并进。分业务，2023年包装水实现收入202.6亿 绝对表现% 0.36 -4.2 -6.53 -6.11 （yoy+11%），主要受益于疫后线下活动增加，即饮渠道恢复；茶饮料实现收入 相对表现% 2.27 -4.23 -3.58 10.28 126.6亿（yoy+83%），预计受益于东方树叶铺货率、网点数快速增 ...

Investment Rating - Buy (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company achieved robust growth in 2023, with revenue reaching RMB 42.667 billion, a year-on-year increase of 28.4%, and net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 12.079 billion, up 42.2% year-on-year [1] - The tea beverage segment showed remarkable growth, with revenue increasing by 83.3% year-on-year to RMB 12.659 billion, driven by the rapid development of the sugar-free tea industry and the company's brand cultivation over the past decade [2] - The company's gross profit margin improved to 59.55%, up 2.10 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to lower raw material costs such as packaging materials and PET [3] - The net profit margin reached 28.31%, an increase of 2.75 percentage points year-on-year, marking a record high since the company's listing [3] Financial Performance - In 2023, the company's revenue from packaged water increased by 10.9% year-on-year to RMB 20.262 billion, supported by marketing efforts highlighting premium water sources [2] - Functional beverages generated revenue of RMB 4.902 billion, up 27.7% year-on-year, benefiting from increased consumer awareness post-pandemic [2] - Juice beverages contributed RMB 3.533 billion in revenue, a 22.7% year-on-year increase, driven by product innovation and expanded offerings [2] - The company's operating income for the second half of 2023 was RMB 22.205 billion, up 33.44% year-on-year, with net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 6.304 billion, a 62.19% increase [1] Market Data and Valuation - The current stock price is HKD 42.25, with a 52-week range of HKD 37.95 to HKD 46.75 [3] - The company's total market capitalization is HKD 475.163 billion, with a circulating market capitalization of HKD 212.715 billion [3] - The average daily trading volume is HKD 221.86 million, with a one-month turnover rate of 2.36% [3] - The company's P/E ratio for 2023 is 38.90x, expected to decrease to 31.02x in 2024, 27.35x in 2025, and 24.15x in 2026 [4] Future Projections - Revenue is projected to grow to RMB 51.032 billion in 2024, RMB 58.716 billion in 2025, and RMB 66.956 billion in 2026, with growth rates of 20%, 15%, and 14% respectively [4] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach RMB 14.123 billion in 2024, RMB 16.019 billion in 2025, and RMB 18.138 billion in 2026, with growth rates of 17%, 13%, and 13% respectively [4] - EPS is forecasted to be RMB 1.26 in 2024, RMB 1.42 in 2025, and RMB 1.61 in 2026 [4] Product Segments - Packaged water remains the core driver, with the company reinforcing its leadership position through marketing and product upgrades [2] - The tea beverage segment, particularly the "Oriental Leaf" brand, is expected to continue its rapid growth due to the expanding sugar-free tea market [2] - Functional beverages and juice products are also expected to benefit from industry growth and product innovation [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1][3]. Core Insights - The company has shown robust revenue growth, with a total revenue of 42.667 billion RMB in 2023, representing a year-on-year increase of 27.4% [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 12.079 billion RMB in 2023, up 42.2% year-on-year, indicating significant improvement in profitability [2]. - The company has diversified its product offerings beyond packaged water, focusing on health-oriented beverages such as tea drinks, functional drinks, and fruit juices, which have all seen substantial growth [2][3]. - The gross profit margin improved to 59.5% in 2023, an increase of 2.1 percentage points year-on-year, driven by lower raw material costs and supply chain optimization [2]. Summary by Sections Revenue Performance - In H2 2023, the company achieved revenue of 22.204 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 37.5% [1]. - Packaged drinking water revenue grew by 10.2% year-on-year to 9.82 billion RMB in H2 2023, with total annual revenue surpassing 20 billion RMB [1]. - Tea beverage revenue surged by 104.9% year-on-year to 7.373 billion RMB in H2 2023, with annual revenue increasing by 83.3% to 12.659 billion RMB [1]. Profitability Metrics - The net profit margin for 2023 was 28.3%, reflecting a 2.8 percentage point increase from the previous year [2]. - The company’s operating efficiency improved, with a decrease in sales expense ratio by 1.8 percentage points to 21.8% and management expense ratio down by 0.5 percentage points to 5.1% [2]. Future Earnings Projections - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 1.33 RMB, 1.58 RMB, and 1.81 RMB for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [2][3]. - The company is expected to maintain a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 29, 25, and 22 for the same years, indicating a relatively low valuation compared to historical levels [3]. Competitive Positioning - The company is positioned as a benchmark in the beverage industry, demonstrating both growth potential and profitability across multiple product categories [3]. - The strategic focus on "natural and healthy" products has allowed the company to expand its market presence effectively [3].

[Table_MainInfo] 公司研究/食品 证券研究报告 农夫山泉（9633.HK）年度报告 2024年03月29日 [Table_InvestInfo] 成绩超预期，营收利润高速成长，资产负 投资评级 优于大市 维持 债表继续体现良好需求景气度 股票数据 3[T月ab28le日_S收to盘c价kI（nf港o元] ） 42.25 [Table_Summary] （52H周K股D）价 波动（港元） 37.95-46.70 投资要点： 总股本（百万股） 11246 总市值/流通市值（百万港 463917/ 207680 元）  事件：公司发布 2023 年年报，2023 年公司实现营收 426.67 亿元 相关研究 （YOY28.4%），实现归母净利润120.79亿元（YOY42.2%）。此外公司建 [《Ta继b续le看_R好e茶p饮or料tIn业fo务] 高增长及未来盈利能 议派息合计84.35亿元。 力持续向上》2024.01.18 《半年报点评：茶饮料继续表现亮眼，盈利能  成绩超预期，营收利润均高速成长，资产负债表继续体现良好需求景气度。 力仍处上行通道》2023.09.06 受益于全体员工的艰 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company reported a significant increase in revenue and net profit for 2023, with total revenue reaching 42.67 billion yuan, up 28.4% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders at 12.08 billion yuan, up 42.2% year-on-year [2] - The growth was driven by strong performance in the packaged water and tea beverage segments, with packaged water sales at 20.26 billion yuan (up 10.9%) and tea beverages at 12.66 billion yuan (up 83.8%) [2] - The company has improved its profitability through cost management, achieving an overall gross margin of 59.5%, up 2.1 percentage points year-on-year, and a net profit margin of 28.3%, up 2.8 percentage points year-on-year [2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2023, the company achieved total revenue of 42.67 billion yuan and a net profit of 12.08 billion yuan, with significant growth in the second half of the year [2][4] - Revenue breakdown by product category includes packaged water (20.26 billion yuan), tea beverages (12.66 billion yuan), functional beverages (4.90 billion yuan), juice beverages (3.53 billion yuan), and other products (1.31 billion yuan) [2] Profitability and Cost Management - The company has seen a notable improvement in profitability, with a gross margin of 59.5% and a net profit margin of 28.3% [2] - The sales, management, and financial expense ratios have improved, indicating effective cost control measures [2] Future Outlook - The company forecasts net profits of 15.39 billion yuan, 18.99 billion yuan, and 22.61 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.37 yuan, 1.69 yuan, and 2.01 yuan [3][4] - The projected growth rates for revenue are 23.0% in 2024, 20.7% in 2025, and 17.0% in 2026, indicating a strong growth trajectory [4]

Core Viewpoint - Daiwa has reiterated its "outperform" rating for Nongfu Spring (09633), believing the company can achieve high-quality growth at a reasonable price, with profit forecasts for the next two years raised by 5% to 7% and the target price increased from HKD 46 to HKD 48 [1] Financial Performance - The company reported a 33% year-on-year revenue growth in the second half of last year, reaching RMB 22 billion, with profits rising by 62% to RMB 6.3 billion, both exceeding market expectations [1] - The significant growth in revenue was primarily driven by a 105% increase in tea beverage sales [1] Management Guidance - Management expects double-digit revenue growth across all product categories this year, assuming no major fluctuations in raw material prices, with stable gross margins [1]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of HKD 58.68, indicating a potential upside of 42.3% from the current price of HKD 41.25 [1][2][7]. Core Insights - The company's 2023 performance exceeded expectations, with a net profit margin reaching a historical high of 28.3%. Sales and net profit grew by 28.4% and 42.2% year-on-year, respectively, totaling RMB 42.67 billion and RMB 12.08 billion [1][5]. - The beverage segment's revenue contribution surpassed that of packaged water for the first time, with tea beverages showing exceptional growth of over 100% in the second half of 2023 [1][5]. - The company anticipates double-digit revenue growth for 2024, despite some challenges in e-commerce channels, and expects gross margins to remain stable in the first half of 2024 [1][5]. Financial Overview - **2023 Financial Performance**: - Revenue: RMB 42.67 billion, up 28.4% YoY - Net Profit: RMB 12.08 billion, up 42.2% YoY - Gross Margin: 59.5%, an increase of 2.1 percentage points YoY - Net Profit Margin: 28.3%, an increase of 2.8 percentage points YoY [1][5][8]. - **2024 Projections**: - Expected Revenue: RMB 49.36 billion, with a growth rate of 15.7% - Expected Net Profit: RMB 12.99 billion, with a growth rate of 7.6% - Projected Gross Margin: 59.6% [2][8]. Segment Performance - **Beverage Segments**: - Packaged Water: Contributed 48% of sales, with a YoY growth of 11% - Tea Beverages: Contributed 30% of sales, with a remarkable YoY growth of 83% - Functional Beverages: Contributed 11% of sales, with a YoY growth of 28% - Juice: Contributed 8% of sales, with a YoY growth of 23% [1][5][6]. Market Position - The company has established a strong market position with a significant increase in its tea beverage offerings, driven by consumer health trends and new product launches [1][5]. - The stock has shown resilience, with a 52-week high of HKD 46.30 and a low of HKD 38.50, reflecting a stable market presence [4][7].