Core Insights - Keeta, a delivery platform supported by Meituan, has achieved nationwide coverage across all seven emirates of the UAE, marking a significant milestone in its regional expansion [1] - The company attracts thousands of local and international dining brands through a technology-driven approach and transparent collaboration mechanisms, enhancing operational efficiency for small and medium-sized restaurants [1] - Keeta plans to continue focusing on service reliability, user experience, and merchant empowerment, actively participating in the development of the UAE's food and digital economy [1]

Core Viewpoint - The "battle of the giants" in the food delivery sector has sparked interest, but it essentially ignites a new journey for instant retail, termed "everything to home" [1] Group 1: Instant Retail Development - Instant retail is seen as a new blue ocean with significant growth potential, characterized by intense competition for market share and the activation of traffic through near and far-field collaboration [2] - The narrow instant retail market in China is projected to reach 781 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 20.15%, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 50% from 2018 to 2024 [2] - The online food delivery market in China is also expected to grow, with a CAGR of 24% from 2018 to 2024 [2] Group 2: Instant Delivery Demand - The demand for instant delivery is rapidly increasing, with the order volume in China's instant delivery sector expected to reach approximately 48.28 billion orders in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 17.6% and a CAGR of 20.3% from 2019 to 2024 [2] - By 2030, the nationwide instant delivery order volume is anticipated to reach 100.84 billion orders, with an estimated annual growth rate of 13.1% from 2024 to 2030 [2] Group 3: SF Express's Position - SF Express is the largest third-party instant delivery service platform in China, aiming to become the "first brand in new consumption delivery" by covering four major scenarios: food delivery, local retail, near-field e-commerce, and near-field services [3] - The company has shown continuous improvement in profitability, with gross margin increasing from -23.3% in 2018 to 6.8% in 2024, and adjusted net profit margin rising from -36.4% to 0.93% during the same period [3] Group 4: Financial Performance and Projections - The revenue and profit growth of SF Express is driven by revenue expansion and cost efficiency through scale and refined management [3] - The company is projected to achieve a net profit of 230 million yuan, 460 million yuan, and 710 million yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, representing year-on-year growth rates of 73%, 100%, and 55% respectively [4] - The target price for SF Express is set at 18.1 HKD, reflecting a potential upside of 64% based on a 25x price-to-earnings ratio for the adjusted net profit in 2026 [4]

Core Viewpoint - The instant delivery industry is in a high growth phase, with SF Express City (09699) strengthening its competitive edge as an independent third-party delivery leader, expected to show higher growth potential under the new journey of instant retail [1] Group 1: Instant Retail Market Potential - Instant retail has significant development potential, emerging as a new battleground for major players [1] - The market for narrow instant retail in China (excluding food delivery) is projected to reach 781 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 20.15%, and a CAGR of 50% from 2018 to 2024 [1] - The online food delivery market in China is expected to grow at a CAGR of 24% from 2018 to 2024 [1] - E-commerce giants are competing around the "30-minute living circle," aiming to activate traffic through both near-field and far-field synergies [1] Group 2: Growth in Instant Delivery Demand - The demand for instant delivery is driven by the increasing richness of product supply and consumer demand for "minute-level" fulfillment, with the order volume in China's instant delivery industry expected to reach approximately 48.28 billion orders in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 17.6% [2] - The average annual growth rate from 2019 to 2024 for the instant delivery industry is projected to be 20.3% [2] - By 2030, the nationwide instant delivery order volume is expected to reach 100.84 billion orders, with an estimated annual growth rate of 13.1% from 2024 to 2030 [2] Group 3: Profitability Improvement - SF Express City is the largest third-party instant delivery service platform in China, aiming to become the "first brand in new consumption delivery" by covering four major scenarios: food delivery, local retail, near-field e-commerce, and near-field services [3] - The company benefits from its independent status, allowing it to match new demand more effectively [3] - SF Express's advantages include high quality, high pricing, and peak avoidance [3] Group 4: Internal and External Growth Drivers - The internal growth driver is the empowerment from SF Holdings (002352), which drives high growth in internal orders [4] - The external growth driver includes benefiting from the new journey of instant retail, with revenue from merchants accounting for 73% of local delivery services in 2024, increasing to 77% in the first half of 2025 [4] - The service volume directed at consumers is expected to grow at a CAGR of 30% from 2021 to 2024 [4] - Investments in White Rhino and autonomous vehicles are expected to reduce costs and increase asset value [4] Group 5: Profit Forecast - The company’s projected net profit for 2025-2027 is 230 million, 460 million, and 710 million yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 73%, 100%, and 55% respectively [4] - The expected EPS for the same period is 0.25, 0.50, and 0.77 yuan, with corresponding PE ratios of 40, 20, and 13 times [4] - The target price is set at 18.1 HKD, corresponding to a market value of 16.6 billion HKD, with a potential upside of 64% [4]

Core Viewpoint - The instant delivery industry is in a high growth phase, with SF Express (09699) strengthening its competitive edge as an independent third-party delivery leader, expected to show higher growth potential in the new journey of instant retail [1] Group 1: Instant Retail Market Potential - Instant retail has immense development potential, emerging as a new battleground for major players [2] - The market for narrow instant retail (excluding food delivery) in China is projected to reach 781 billion yuan in 2024, growing by 20.15% year-on-year, with a CAGR of 50% from 2018 to 2024 [2] - The online food delivery market in China is expected to grow at a CAGR of 24% from 2018 to 2024 [2] - E-commerce giants are competing around the "30-minute living circle," aiming to activate traffic through both near-field and far-field synergies [2] Group 2: Growth in Instant Delivery Demand - The order volume in China's instant delivery sector is expected to reach approximately 48.28 billion orders in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 17.6%, with a CAGR of 20.3% from 2019 to 2024 [3] - By 2030, the nationwide instant delivery order volume is projected to reach 100.84 billion orders, maintaining an annual growth rate of 13.1% from 2024 to 2030 [3] - Instant delivery platforms primarily utilize a "three-track parallel" model for capacity organization: crowdsourcing, self-operated, and labor dispatch, with crowdsourcing becoming the mainstream choice due to its lightweight asset structure [3] Group 3: SF Express's Profitability Improvement - SF Express is the largest third-party instant delivery service platform in China, aiming to become the "first brand in new consumption delivery" by covering four major scenarios: food delivery, local retail, near-field e-commerce, and near-field services [4] - The company benefits from its independent status, allowing it to match new demand effectively [4] - Profit forecasts for SF Express indicate a projected net profit of 230 million, 460 million, and 710 million yuan for 2025-2027, representing year-on-year growth of 73%, 100%, and 55% respectively [5] Group 4: Internal and External Synergies - Internal synergies are driven by the ecosystem of SF Holdings, enhancing internal business growth [5] - External synergies include benefiting from the new journey of instant retail, with revenue from merchants accounting for 73% of local delivery services in 2024, increasing to 77% in the first half of 2025 [5] - The company is investing in autonomous vehicles to reduce costs and enhance asset value [5] Group 5: Valuation and Target Price - The target price for SF Express is set at 18.1 HKD, with a projected market capitalization of 16.6 billion HKD based on a 25x PE ratio for adjusted net profit in 2026 [5] - The current price offers a potential upside of 64% from the target price, with a "recommended" rating for the first coverage [5]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 18.1, representing a potential upside of 64% from the current price of HKD 10.98 [1]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the "takeaway war" has ignited a new journey in instant retail, termed "everything to home," highlighting the significant growth potential in the instant retail sector [4][21]. - The company is identified as the largest third-party instant delivery service platform in China, benefiting from the synergy of its independent third-party status and the broader ecosystem of SF Express [8][9]. - Financial performance shows a continuous improvement in profitability, with gross margins increasing from -23.3% in 2018 to 6.8% in 2024, and adjusted net profit margins improving from -36.4% to 0.93% over the same period [8][9]. Summary by Sections Instant Retail Market - Instant retail is characterized by online ordering and offline fulfillment, aiming to meet local immediate demands, with a projected market size of RMB 781 billion in 2024, growing at 20.15% year-on-year [4][38]. - The competition among major players like Meituan, Taobao, and JD has intensified, with significant subsidies driving daily order volumes to record highs [13][14][15]. - The report outlines three main service models in instant retail: front warehouses, comprehensive instant retail platforms, and store-warehouse integrated self-operated models [23][26][30]. Company Overview - The company is positioned as the leading third-party instant delivery service provider, leveraging the SF Express brand reputation and service capabilities to create a synergistic effect [8][9]. - The internal and external growth mechanisms, termed "dual flywheel," are driving significant revenue growth, with a forecasted increase in net profit from RMB 132 million in 2024 to RMB 707 million by 2027 [9][5]. Financial Projections - Revenue is expected to grow from RMB 15.746 billion in 2024 to RMB 32.731 billion by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 27.1% [5]. - The adjusted net profit is projected to reach RMB 8.1 billion by 2027, with a corresponding adjusted price-to-earnings (PE) ratio decreasing from 25 in 2025 to 11 in 2027 [9][5].

Core Viewpoint - SF Express City has launched the second part of a rider-themed short drama series titled "The Day the System Took Effect, I Turned the World Upside Down" in collaboration with Changsha Yunshe Cultural Media Co., Ltd, highlighting the lives of delivery riders and enhancing public understanding of this new employment group [1][3]. Group 1: Company Overview - SF Express City is the largest third-party instant delivery service platform in China, covering four major scenarios: food delivery, urban retail, near-field e-commerce, and near-field services [3]. - The collaboration with Changsha Yunshe, known for producing high-viewership short dramas, aims to leverage their expertise in content planning and production [3]. Group 2: Content and Impact - The first part of the series was the first short drama in China featuring delivery riders as protagonists, achieving over 10 million views on WeChat Video Account and generating widespread discussion on social media [3]. - The second part integrates SF Express City's deep understanding of the rider community with Changsha Yunshe's production expertise, aiming to create relatable rider characters and convey a message of sincerity and kindness [3]. - The increasing attention on delivery riders in artistic works reflects a growing public interest in their lifestyles and spirit, with multiple platforms releasing similar short dramas this year [3].

Core Viewpoint - SF Express City has signed a strategic cooperation framework agreement with Wuhan Public Transport Group to create an innovative ecosystem combining "public transport + unmanned delivery" to enhance urban last-mile delivery efficiency and support the construction of a "15-minute living circle" in Wuhan [1][2] Group 1: Strategic Cooperation - The collaboration aims to integrate resources from SF Express City, SF Intelligent, and Wuhan Public Transport Group to address urban development needs and policy responses [1] - The partnership will utilize SF Express City's instant delivery capabilities, SF Intelligent's technological strengths, and Wuhan Public Transport Group's urban transportation resources to create a closed-loop system for "bus stations + dedicated routes + unmanned delivery" [1] Group 2: Operational Framework - The three parties will build a complete value chain covering "unmanned delivery capacity, bus stations, and scheduling fulfillment" [1] - SF Intelligent will invest in low-speed unmanned delivery vehicles that meet national standards and will be responsible for their research, maintenance, and operation [1] Group 3: Infrastructure and Data Sharing - Wuhan Public Transport Group will provide access to bus stations and auxiliary spaces in key areas for unmanned vehicle docking, charging, and sorting, creating a "one-stop supply station" [1] - The partnership will leverage traffic flow and station distribution data to facilitate efficient unmanned vehicle operations [1] Group 4: Technology and Market Presence - SF Express City has extensive experience in smart logistics and unmanned delivery, with over 800 unmanned delivery vehicles deployed across 105 cities in China [2] - The company is expanding the commercial application of unmanned delivery technology, developing a smart delivery system that covers medical emergencies, last-mile logistics, and services in closed or semi-closed areas [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the intense competition in the instant retail sector, particularly during the recent "Double Twelve" shopping event, where major players like Meituan, Alibaba, and JD.com are heavily investing in subsidies and marketing despite significant financial losses [2][11][12] - Meituan's third-quarter financial report reveals a drastic decline in operating profit, with a loss of approximately 141 billion yuan, attributed to increased spending on sales and marketing to compete in the market [4][11] - In contrast, SF Express has reported a significant increase in profits, with a 139% year-on-year growth in adjusted net profit, benefiting from the competitive landscape as a third-party delivery service provider [14][15] Group 2 - The article discusses the implications of the 600 billion yuan investment by internet giants in the instant retail sector, which has created unprecedented pressure on profit structures, particularly for Meituan, which saw a sharp decline in its core local business profits [4][11] - Analysts suggest that the instant retail market is expected to grow significantly, with projections indicating a market size exceeding 3 trillion yuan by 2030, leading companies to view short-term losses as necessary strategic investments [12][13] - Regulatory changes are anticipated to influence the competitive landscape, with new standards aimed at curbing irrational competition and promoting more sustainable practices among platforms [19]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the positive contributions of delivery riders from SF Express, showcasing their acts of bravery and integrity in various situations, which reflect their social responsibility and commitment to the community [1][2][4][6][7]. Group 1: Acts of Bravery - On November 27, a rider named He Yang from SF Express in Changsha demonstrated quick thinking and bravery by helping to extinguish a fire in a residential building, successfully controlling the flames before firefighters arrived [2]. - Another rider, Jiang Wenjie, assisted an injured sanitation worker at a traffic accident scene, ensuring the worker's safety and cooperating with the police as a witness [4]. Group 2: Integrity and Professionalism - On December 2, rider Xiao Zhengjiang found a lost mobile phone during a delivery and promptly returned it to the authorities, showing his commitment to customer care and community service [6]. - Rider Chen Guojie also displayed similar integrity by handing over a found mobile phone to the police when the owner could not be located [7]. Group 3: Community Impact - The actions of these riders not only connect goods with users but also establish them as reliable figures in emergency situations, enhancing the social fabric of urban life [7]. - The consistent display of such positive behavior among the riders indicates a growing norm where delivery services transcend commercial boundaries, becoming integral to the warmth of city life [7].

Core Insights - The competition intensity among e-commerce platforms and local service providers in the instant delivery sector has reached a new level by 2025, driven by players like JD.com, Alibaba, and Meituan [1] - The demand for instant delivery is expanding, with a shift from food delivery to a broader range of categories, indicating a trend towards a more diversified and fragmented consumer demand [2] Demand - The instant delivery market is primarily based on food delivery, accounting for nearly 80% of industry order volume, with the instant retail market serving as a growth engine [2] - By 2024, the order volume of China's instant delivery industry is projected to reach approximately 48.28 billion orders, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 17.6% [2] - The demand categories for instant delivery have expanded from food to include snacks, beverages, household items, and pharmaceuticals, with a growing emphasis on 24-hour instant response [2] Supply - The instant delivery network features direct point-to-point delivery without transshipment, with significant order peaks during lunch and dinner times [3] - The rider network is a crucial component of the instant delivery value chain, accounting for over 50% of the total revenue in the delivery segment [3] - The cost of riders represents a substantial portion of the revenue, with rider costs estimated to account for about 85% of income in 2024 [3] - The supply structure of the instant delivery industry is characterized by a primary focus on first-party providers, supplemented by third-party services [3]