Core Viewpoint - SF Express City (09699) has announced a positive earnings forecast, expecting significant profit growth for the fiscal year 2025, driven by the expansion of the instant retail market and operational efficiencies [1] Financial Performance - The company anticipates a profit attributable to shareholders of no less than 238 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of over 80% [1] - Adjusted net profit is expected to be no less than 376 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth exceeding 158% [1] - Annual revenue is projected to be no less than 22 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of over 40% [1] Market Insights - The growth in performance is attributed to the surge in delivery demand from the expanding instant retail market, healthy order growth driven by comprehensive service offerings, and enhanced operational efficiency through technology [1] - HSBC's report indicates that the adjusted net profit forecast exceeds their expectations, maintaining confidence in the company's organic growth despite market scrutiny of instant retail platforms [1] - The bank projects a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 33% for revenue from 2024 to 2027, compared to a CAGR of 24% from 2021 to 2024 [1]

Core Viewpoint - SF Express City (09699) has announced a positive earnings forecast, expecting significant profit growth for the fiscal year 2025, driven by the expansion of the instant retail market and operational efficiencies [1] Group 1: Earnings Forecast - The company anticipates a profit attributable to shareholders of no less than 238 million yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of over 80% [1] - Adjusted net profit is expected to be no less than 376 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth exceeding 158% [1] - Annual revenue is projected to be no less than 22 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of over 40% [1] Group 2: Market Drivers - The growth in performance is primarily attributed to the surge in delivery demand due to the expansion of the instant retail market [1] - The company has seen healthy order growth driven by full-category, all-time service offerings [1] - Operational improvements through lean rider management and digital technology enhancements have contributed to increased scale effects [1] Group 3: Analyst Insights - HSBC's report indicates that the adjusted net profit forecast of 376 million yuan exceeds their expectations [1] - Despite recent market scrutiny of instant retail platforms, HSBC maintains confidence in SF Express City's organic growth [1] - The bank projects a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 33% for revenue from 2024 to 2027, compared to a CAGR of 24% from 2021 to 2024 [1]

股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2026年1月31日 狀態: 新提交 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 公司名稱: 杭州順豐同城實業股份有限公司 呈交日期: 2026年2月5日 I. 法定/註冊股本變動 II. 已發行股份及/或庫存股份變動及足夠公眾持股量的確認 1. 股份分類 普通股 股份類別 H 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) 是 證券代號 (如上市) 09699 說明 已發行股份（不包括庫存股份）數目 庫存股份數目 已發行股份總數 上月底結存 742,489,809 3,120,800 745,610,609 增加 / 減少 (-) 0 0 本月底結存 742,489,809 3,120,800 745,610,609 足夠公眾持股量的確認(註4) | 根據《主板上市規則》第13.32D(1)條或第19A.28D(1)條 / 《GEM上市規則》第17.37D(1)條或第25.21D(1)條，我們在此確認，就上述所列股份類別而言，截至本月底: | | --- | | ✔ 已符合適用的公眾持股量要求（見下方） | | 未符合適用的公眾持股量要求（見下方） ...

Core Viewpoint - SF Express's subsidiary, SF Tongcheng, is expected to see significant growth in 2025, with net profit projected to be no less than RMB 238 million, representing an increase of at least 80% compared to 2024 [1]. Group 1: Financial Projections - For 2025, SF Tongcheng's adjusted net profit is anticipated to be no less than RMB 376 million, reflecting a growth of at least 158% year-on-year [1]. - Revenue for 2025 is expected to reach no less than RMB 22 billion, indicating a growth of at least 40% compared to 2024 [1]. - The company's net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are revised to RMB 238 million, RMB 452 million, and RMB 755 million respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 80.03%, 89.46%, and 67.04% [3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The demand for instant retail is rapidly increasing, and SF Tongcheng is well-positioned to capitalize on this growth, especially with the diversification of traffic on food delivery platforms [1]. - The strategic shift of Alibaba Group towards dominating the instant retail market through Taobao Flash Purchase is expected to enhance competition in the sector [1]. - Regulatory scrutiny on the food delivery platform market is anticipated to lead to more compliant competition, potentially expanding logistics opportunities beyond traditional categories [1]. Group 3: Competitive Advantages - SF Tongcheng's independent third-party platform serves as a key differentiator, breaking down traffic barriers and meeting the multi-channel operational needs of merchants [2]. - High-quality service capabilities have strengthened partnerships with major clients such as McDonald's, KFC, and major supermarket brands, supporting steady customer growth [2]. - The company's logistics infrastructure is crucial in connecting merchants, platforms, and consumers, enhancing its market position [2]. Group 4: Profitability Outlook - Short-term profitability may be impacted by stock compensation and the hiring of new riders to handle increased order volumes, which could affect gross margins [3]. - Long-term prospects remain positive as scale effects are expected to gradually enhance net profit margins [3]. - The company's price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected at 48x, 25x, and 15x, respectively, indicating a favorable valuation compared to peers like Meituan and DoorDash [3].

Company and Industry Summary Company: 顺丰同城 (SF Express) Key Points - **Core Logic**: The company is experiencing significant growth driven by two main segments: same-city delivery (instant retail external orders) and last-mile delivery (internal group orders). The high efficiency of matching internal and external orders is expected to lead to increases in both revenue and profit margins [1][3] - **Internal Growth Drivers**: The internal ecosystem of 顺丰控股 is empowering the growth of internal order business. This internal capability is crucial for sustaining high growth rates [2][4] - **External Market Dynamics**: The instant retail sector is on a new growth trajectory, with the instant delivery industry experiencing high growth. The increase in penetration rates of third-party instant delivery services, driven by the overflow of order volumes from instant retail platforms and collaborations with these platforms, positions the company to benefit from greater growth opportunities [2][4] - **Revenue and Profit Forecast**: The company forecasts that by 2025, revenue will not be less than 22 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year increase of over 40%. Adjusted net profit is expected to be no less than 376 million RMB, reflecting a year-on-year increase of over 158% [5] - **Operational Leverage**: The high growth in business volume is expected to reveal operational leverage, enhancing overall profitability [6] - **Future Profit Projections**: The adjusted net profit is projected to reach 600 million RMB in 2026 and 810 million RMB in 2027. The company is considered to have a low valuation, rapid growth, and a large market space, leading to a continued recommendation for investment [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [2][3] Core Views - The company is expected to see significant growth in its instant delivery segment, driven by increasing demand and strategic positioning within the market [3][4] - The company has reported a strong performance forecast for 2025, with net profit expected to be no less than RMB 238 million, representing an 80% increase from 2024 [3][4] - The report highlights the company's independent third-party platform as a key differentiator, enabling it to capture market opportunities and enhance customer relationships with major brands [3][4] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: RMB 12.4 billion - 2024: RMB 15.746 billion - 2025E: RMB 22.051 billion - 2026E: RMB 30.202 billion - 2027E: RMB 39.568 billion - Year-on-year revenue growth rates are projected at: - 2023: 20.80% - 2024: 26.98% - 2025E: 40.04% - 2026E: 36.96% - 2027E: 31.01% [3][7] - Net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders is forecasted as follows: - 2023: RMB 51 million - 2024: RMB 132 million - 2025E: RMB 238 million - 2026E: RMB 452 million - 2027E: RMB 755 million - Year-on-year net profit growth rates are projected at: - 2023: -117.63% - 2024: 161.81% - 2025E: 80.03% - 2026E: 89.46% - 2027E: 67.04% [3][7] - Earnings per share (EPS) is expected to increase from RMB 0.06 in 2023 to RMB 0.82 in 2027 [3][7] - The report notes a decrease in the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio from 48x in 2025E to 15x in 2027E, indicating a favorable valuation compared to peers [3][4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Outperform" for the company [1] Core Insights - The company is expected to see significant growth in its revenue and net profit, with a projected revenue of RMB 22.05 billion in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 40.04% [2] - The demand for instant retail is rapidly increasing, and the company is well-positioned to capture this growth, especially with the strategic focus of major players like Alibaba on instant retail [5] - The company's independent third-party platform is a key differentiator, allowing it to serve a diverse range of clients and enhance its logistics capabilities [5] - The profit forecast has been adjusted downwards due to short-term impacts from new rider recruitment and share payments, but long-term growth prospects remain strong [5] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: RMB 12.4 billion - 2024: RMB 15.746 billion - 2025E: RMB 22.051 billion - 2026E: RMB 30.202 billion - 2027E: RMB 39.568 billion - Net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders is expected to be: - 2023: RMB 51 million - 2024: RMB 132 million - 2025E: RMB 238 million - 2026E: RMB 452 million - 2027E: RMB 755 million - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is projected to grow from RMB 0.06 in 2023 to RMB 0.82 in 2027 [2][6]

Group 1 - SF Express (09699) expects a profit of no less than RMB 238 million for the year ending December 31, 2025, representing an increase of at least 80% compared to 2024. Adjusted net profit is projected to be no less than RMB 376 million, a growth of at least 158%, with revenue expected to reach no less than RMB 22 billion, a 40% increase from 2024 [1] - Fuhong Hanlin (02696) shares rose nearly 5% following a successful offline researcher meeting in San Francisco regarding its international multi-center Phase III clinical study for HLX22, a new anti-HER2 monoclonal antibody [1] - Xpeng Motors (09868) saw a decline of over 2.2% as it reported January vehicle deliveries of 20,011 units, a year-on-year decrease of 34.07% and a month-on-month decrease of 46.65% [1] Group 2 - Engineering machinery stocks continued to rise, with Zoomlion (01157) up 7.47% and Sany International (00631) up 3.57%. The total import and export trade of engineering machinery in China for 2025 is projected to be USD 62.743 billion, a year-on-year increase of 13.2% [2] - Ruipu Lanjun (00666) shares increased over 5% after announcing its first profit forecast since listing, expecting a net profit of RMB 630 million to RMB 730 million for the year ending December 31, 2025 [2] - Pony.ai (02026) shares rose over 2.5% following a partnership with Aitbot to build a fully autonomous driving service fleet [2] Group 3 - MINIMAX-WP (00100) shares surged over 12.7% after the release of the MiniMax Music 2.5 audio model, which achieved breakthroughs in "paragraph-level strong control" and "physical-level high fidelity" [3] - China International Marine Containers (02039) shares rose over 12% after discussing its data center business and container manufacturing performance in an investor relations activity [3] Group 4 - WanGuo Gold Group (03939) shares increased over 6.8% after announcing an expected profit of approximately RMB 1.4 billion to RMB 1.5 billion for 2025, a year-on-year increase of about 143% to 161% due to rising sales volume and prices of gold products [4] - Junda Co., Ltd. (02865) shares rose over 13% after completing a placement agreement [4] Group 5 - Carnival Cruise Line (CCL.US) shares rose 8.09% as U.S. House Speaker Mike Johnson expressed confidence in gaining Republican support to end the government shutdown [5] - Major tech stocks like AMD (AMD.US) and Intel (INTC.US) saw gains, with AMD up 4.03% and Intel up 5.04%, following unexpected expansion in U.S. manufacturing activity [5] - The storage sector strengthened, with SanDisk (SNDK.US) up 15.44% as demand for AI and data centers continues to drive price increases in DRAM and NAND Flash products [6] Group 6 - Disney (DIS.US) shares fell 7.4% despite reporting a 5% year-on-year revenue increase to USD 26 billion for Q1 2026, exceeding analyst expectations [7] - Coterra Energy (CTRA.US) shares dropped 3.6% following Devon Energy's announcement of a significant acquisition deal [6] - Oracle (ORCL.US) shares declined 2.75% as the company plans to raise USD 45 billion to USD 50 billion for expanding its cloud infrastructure [8]

每经AI快讯，顺丰同城(09699.HK)涨超4%，截至发稿，涨4.56%，报14.66港元，成交额1035.21万港 元。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

Core Viewpoint - SF Express City (顺丰同城) has announced a positive earnings forecast, indicating significant growth in profit and revenue for the upcoming fiscal year [1] Financial Performance - The expected profit attributable to the company's owners for the year ending December 31, 2025, is projected to be no less than RMB 238 million, representing an increase of at least 80% compared to the fiscal year 2024 [1] - The adjusted net profit is anticipated to be no less than RMB 376 million, reflecting a growth of at least 158% from 2024 [1] - Revenue is expected to reach no less than RMB 22 billion, which is an increase of at least 40% compared to 2024 [1] Market Position and Strategy - The company is capitalizing on the opportunities in the instant retail market, with a rapid increase in demand for instant delivery services [1] - All business segments are experiencing balanced and high-quality development, leading to healthy growth in order volume and revenue, significantly enhancing scale [1] - The company has established a neutral and open third-party market positioning, providing high-quality services across all categories and timeframes, which has fostered long-term customer trust and steady business growth [1] Operational Efficiency - Lean operations of the rider base and innovations in digital technology have improved network quality and efficiency, further enhancing scale effects [1] - The continuous manifestation of operational leverage has improved the efficiency of resource input and output, contributing to profit release [1]