Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that due to the growth in orders for SF Express (09699), the revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been raised by 4.7% and 5.5% to 20.343 billion and 25.711 billion respectively, while net profit forecasts remain unchanged at 250 million and 406 million [1] - The company reported a significant increase in order volume during the "May Day" period, with overall business volume up 87% year-on-year, including a 177% increase in supermarket and department store orders and a 106% increase in beverage orders [2] - The demand for instant delivery services is expected to exceed previous expectations due to the growth in the takeaway and last-mile delivery sectors, with the company’s To B business volume anticipated to perform better than expected [3] Group 2 - The last-mile delivery business is projected to continue contributing revenue beyond expectations, driven by increased demand from e-commerce platforms and improved penetration of the company's logistics network [4] - The company is expected to see a net profit margin increase of 0.4 percentage points to 1.2% by 2025, benefiting from economies of scale and an optimized cost structure [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 11.5, representing a potential upside of 28.4% from the current price of HKD 8.91 [1][7][14]. Core Insights - The company has demonstrated significant revenue growth, achieving an operating income of RMB 15.746 billion in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 27.1%, marking seven consecutive years of double-digit growth. Net profit reached RMB 132.5 million, up 161.8%, with a net profit margin improvement from 0.4% in 2023 to 0.8% in 2024 [4][10]. - The company is actively exploring autonomous delivery technologies, having launched drone delivery services in Shenzhen in 2022 and expanding to over 30 cities with more than 100 autonomous delivery vehicles by May 2025. The plan is to increase the average active routes from thousands to tens of thousands [11][12]. - The launch of the "Fengpei Cloud" instant logistics system has reinforced the company's leading position in the industry, enabling third-party logistics services to optimize order management and reduce costs for merchants and small logistics companies [5][13]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a gross profit margin of 6.8%, benefiting from increased order volume and network efficiency improvements. The core growth drivers include significant new orders from key accounts, expansion into lower-tier markets, and rapid growth in non-food delivery scenarios [10][11]. - The company’s revenue breakdown shows that B2B delivery services accounted for 57.9% of total revenue, with significant contributions from major clients and a notable increase in active merchants [10][11]. - The financial projections indicate continued growth, with expected revenues of RMB 19.075 billion in 2025, reflecting a 21.1% increase, and net profits projected to reach RMB 232.9 million, a 75.85% increase [8][18].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of HKD 11.5, indicating a potential upside of 28.4% from the current price of HKD 8.91 [1][7][14]. Core Insights - The company has demonstrated significant revenue growth, achieving an operating income of RMB 15.746 billion in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 27.1%, marking seven consecutive years of double-digit growth. Net profit reached RMB 132.5 million, up 161.8%, with a net profit margin improvement from 0.4% in 2023 to 0.8% in 2024 [4][10]. - The company is actively exploring smart logistics and unmanned delivery technologies, having launched drone delivery services in Shenzhen in 2022 and expanding unmanned vehicle operations across over 30 cities by May 2025 [11][12]. - The launch of the "Fengpei Cloud" instant logistics system has reinforced the company's leading position in the industry, enabling third-party logistics services to optimize order management and reduce costs for merchants and small logistics companies [5][13]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a gross profit margin of 6.8%, benefiting from increased order volume and network efficiency improvements. The core growth drivers include significant new orders from key accounts, expansion into lower-tier markets, and rapid growth in non-food delivery scenarios [10][11]. - The company plans to expand its unmanned vehicle routes from thousands to tens of thousands per month by 2025, enhancing delivery efficiency and reducing labor costs [12][14]. - Financial projections indicate continued growth, with expected revenues of RMB 19.075 billion in 2025, reflecting a 21.1% increase, and net profits projected to reach RMB 232.9 million, a 75.85% increase [8][18].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that SF Express has launched an innovative unmanned vehicle delivery service in collaboration with KFC in Shenzhen, enhancing delivery efficiency through a "unmanned vehicle + rider" model [2] - The unmanned vehicle has a total volume of 5.5 cubic meters and can operate 100% autonomously in extreme weather conditions, handling complex scenarios such as steep underground parking and traffic congestion [2] - The partnership aims to expand the application of unmanned vehicles in the food delivery sector, with future plans to extend services to semi-enclosed or hard-to-reach areas like campuses and parks [2] Group 2 - SF Express reported a revenue of 15.756 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 27.1% [3] - The gross profit surged by 34.8% to 1.071 billion yuan, while the net profit attributable to shareholders reached 132 million yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of 161.8% [3] - The company achieved a net cash inflow from operating activities of 272 million yuan for the year, indicating strong business quality and operational resilience [3]

Core Insights - The instant delivery industry in China is experiencing rapid growth, with order volume reaching 42 billion in 2023 and expected to exceed 48 billion in 2024, moving towards a trillion-level market [1] - The growth is driven by a combination of diversified traffic channels, integration with instant retail, expansion of food supply, digitalization in lower-tier markets, and the application of new technologies like AI and drones [1][2] - SF Express is leading the industry by connecting upstream traffic and demand through a unique independent third-party position, enhancing service models, and advancing AI and unmanned delivery technologies [1][4] Industry Trends - The instant delivery sector is projected to continue its rapid expansion, with significant contributions from AI and unmanned technologies that enhance operational efficiency and service quality [2][4] - The integration of green and sustainable practices is becoming a core part of the operational framework, with SF Express adopting electric vehicles and AI-driven logistics systems to reduce carbon emissions [2][5] Company Initiatives - SF Express has successfully implemented unmanned vehicle delivery across multiple regions, achieving over a thousand active routes monthly, significantly improving delivery efficiency [4] - The company has reported a 98% usage of green transportation methods in its delivery operations, saving 2.42 million tons of carbon emissions [5] - SF Express is committed to social responsibility, with a focus on creating a supportive ecosystem for its delivery personnel, including safety training and welfare initiatives [6][7] Future Outlook - SF Express aims to maintain its position as an independent third-party instant delivery service, leveraging its full-service network and exploring new models empowered by AI and unmanned technologies [8] - The company is focused on building a collaborative ecosystem that benefits consumers, merchants, and society, contributing to high-quality development in the instant delivery industry [8]

Financial Performance - Total revenue for 2024 reached RMB 15,746.1 million, representing a year-on-year growth of 27.1%[9] - Net profit attributable to the company was RMB 132.5 million, a significant increase of 161.8% compared to the previous year[9] - Revenue from continuing operations increased by 27.1% from RMB 12,387.4 million in 2023 to RMB 15,746.1 million in 2024[24] - Operating profit increased significantly to RMB 117,283 thousand in 2024, compared to RMB 19,151 thousand in 2023[52] - The net profit from continuing operations for 2024 was RMB 132,460 thousand, up from RMB 64,857 thousand in 2023, representing a 104% increase[52] - Adjusted net profit (non-IFRS measure) for the year ended December 31, 2024, was RMB 145.9 million, up from RMB 57.4 million in 2023, reflecting strong operational performance[72] - Total comprehensive income for 2024 was RMB 110,294 thousand, compared to RMB 49,337 thousand in 2023[53] - Basic earnings per share for 2024 were RMB 0.15, doubling from RMB 0.07 in 2023[53] Revenue Growth - Same-city delivery service revenue grew by 23.5% from RMB 7,387.3 million in 2023 to RMB 9,121.2 million in 2024[24] - Last-mile delivery service revenue rose by 32.5% from RMB 5,000.2 million in 2023 to RMB 6,624.9 million in 2024[24] - Revenue from same-city delivery services to merchants was RMB 6,688.3 million, up 28.1% year-on-year[28] - County-level revenue grew by 121% in 2024, with coverage expanding to over 1,300 counties[32] - Tea beverage delivery revenue increased by 73% year-on-year, with significant growth in various categories including retail and pharmacy[31] - Revenue from consumer-facing same-city delivery services was RMB 2,432.9 million, a year-on-year growth of 12.2%[36] User Engagement - Active merchants reached 650,000, while active consumers exceeded 23.41 million, indicating strong user engagement[3] - The company achieved a nearly 40% year-on-year increase in the number of active merchants, reaching 650,000 by the end of 2024, with new signed order revenue experiencing high double-digit growth[15] - The number of active consumers reached over 23.41 million as of December 31, 2024, reflecting a continuous increase in user scale[39] - Same-city delivery service orders increased by over 30% year-on-year, driving accelerated revenue growth[26] Operational Efficiency - Gross profit from continuing operations was RMB 1,071.5 million, with a gross margin improvement to 6.8%, marking a continuous improvement over seven years[14] - Operating cash flow has turned positive since 2023 and continues to improve, providing a solid foundation for sustainable development[14] - The company aims to enhance its operational capabilities and profitability through a flexible operational system and lean management practices[20] - The average delivery time for orders within 3 kilometers was 22 minutes, with a service timeliness achievement rate of approximately 95% in 2024[35] - The company aims to strengthen order capacity matching based on distance stratification in 2024, improving delivery efficiency while reducing costs[47] Market Presence - The company operates in over 2,300 cities and counties across China, enhancing its market presence[3] - The company maintains a strong market leadership position in China's third-party instant delivery market[14] - The company will continue to deepen its market coverage, particularly in lower-tier cities, to support the development of new business scenarios and infrastructure[20] Innovation and Technology - The company plans to implement AI foundational model capabilities across multiple scenarios in 2024, enhancing operational efficiency and service experience through digitalization and AI decision-making[17] - The company is actively exploring the commercialization of smart logistics and unmanned delivery technologies, with over 1,000 active routes nationwide, improving delivery efficiency and reducing costs[18] - The introduction of unmanned delivery vehicles is being piloted in multiple cities, with over 1,000 active routes monthly[48] Corporate Governance - The company is committed to maintaining a robust corporate governance system that aligns with stakeholder expectations[103] - The board consists of 11 members, including 3 executive directors, 4 non-executive directors, and 4 independent non-executive directors[104] - The independent non-executive directors account for more than one-third of the board members, ensuring a balanced governance structure[105] - The company emphasizes ongoing professional development for directors, with training covering responsibilities, corporate governance, and regulatory updates[115] - The audit committee is chaired by a financial expert with over 36 years of experience in auditing and management[105] Social Responsibility - The company is committed to building a rider-friendly platform, launching initiatives such as a HKD 30 million public welfare fund to support riders' children's education and organizing over 10,000 offline care activities[19] - The company organized over 10,000 offline care events for riders, enhancing their welfare and support systems[44] - The safety incident rate decreased by 17% compared to the previous year, reflecting improved safety measures for riders[45] Cash Flow and Liquidity - Cash and cash equivalents stood at RMB 1,369.6 million, down from RMB 1,901.7 million in the previous year, indicating a need for cash flow management[10] - The net cash generated from operating activities for the year ended December 31, 2024, was RMB 271.9 million, primarily due to a profit before tax of approximately RMB 145.0 million[76] - The net cash used in investing activities for the year ended December 31, 2024, was RMB 643.8 million, mainly due to the purchase of structured deposit products[77] - The net cash used in financing activities for the year ended December 31, 2024, was RMB 158.6 million, primarily due to share repurchases[78] Shareholder Actions - The company has initiated a share buyback program, repurchasing 19,203,000 H-shares for a total consideration of nearly HKD 200 million, demonstrating long-term confidence in its business development[21] - The company plans to retain all available funds and profits for business development, with no cash dividends expected for the current fiscal year[157] - The company did not declare a final dividend for the year ended December 31, 2024[100]

Core Viewpoint - The stock price of SF Express's same-city delivery service has been underperforming despite the company's entry into profitability in 2024, primarily due to market misjudgments and external competitive pressures from major players like JD and Meituan [1][5][7]. Group 1: Market Environment - The year 2023 was significant for instant retail, with major companies like JD, Alibaba, Meituan, and Douyin expanding their offerings, which increased the demand for third-party delivery services like SF Express [2][3]. - The entry of JD into the food delivery market has intensified competition, leading to a potential price war that could compress margins for delivery service providers [7][12]. - The macroeconomic environment has shown signs of downturn, particularly with CPI concerns, which have negatively impacted market confidence in SF Express's future performance [7][10]. Group 2: Company Performance - SF Express achieved a gross margin of 6.8% in 2024, up from 6.4% the previous year, with total revenue growth of 27%, and a notable 34% increase in the second half of 2024 [10][11]. - The company has successfully captured key accounts (KA clients) in the high-growth tea beverage sector, which has bolstered its revenue and profitability [11][12]. - The number of active merchants increased to 650,000, a 39% year-on-year growth, indicating strong market demand and operational efficiency [12][13]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The market is expected to reassess SF Express's valuation as it continues to grow its KA client base and improve its financial metrics, potentially leading to a more favorable market perception [17][18]. - The ongoing expansion in the tea beverage sector and other high-growth categories suggests that SF Express is well-positioned to benefit from the increasing demand for same-city delivery services [13][16]. - The competitive landscape may ultimately favor third-party delivery services as they can provide flexibility and efficiency in a rapidly evolving market [12][17].

在物流端，顺丰同城与永辉超市、联华超市等多家商超零售品牌保持密切合作，保障配送范围全覆盖和 高峰期订单全接起，同时针对商超货品种类多、体积大、重量沉、需求具有分散性等打造出严格的规范 化配送流程，保障外贸商品"线上下单，平均一小时急送全城"。 此外，凭借第三方平台中立、开放的特性，顺丰同城已与抖音、阿里、微信等平台达成全生态合作。这 种开放的合作模式支持一站式接入全渠道生态，通过智能化调度、定制化服务帮助外贸企业集中资源和 节省成本，进一步实现优化经营、扩大单量、提升利润。 业内人士指出，"出口转内销"本质是供应链的重构，需要商流、物流、信息流的高效协同。在这一转型 过程中，电商平台和零售巨头发挥着前端渠道支撑作用，而以顺丰同城为代表的即时配送平台则扮演着 零售物流基础设施的角色。这种新型合作模式不仅解决了出口企业触达国内消费者的难题，更通过高效 的物流服务建立起消费者的信任，为传统外贸商品转化为适销对路的"内需爆品"搭建快车道。 当前，我国内需市场不仅庞大，且正处于稳步复苏阶段。数据显示，在消费品以旧换新加力扩围等政策 拉动下，1-2月份，社会消费品零售总额83731亿元，同比增长4.0%，增速比上年全年加 ...

近期，"对等关税"靴子落地，此次加征关税的范围和幅度远超市场预期，导致全球资本市场出现巨震，寻找避险资产成为投资焦点。 回顾今年，以科技为核心的中国资产迎来了价值"重估时刻"，中国科技股涨势远超美股。不过美股大跌与关税战、自身涨幅过大有关，中国科技资产的估值 仍处于历史底部，下跌空间有限，中国资产重估还远未结束。 目前科技股的机会点，会在自主创新逻辑和内需逻辑。具体来看，2024年我国消费对GDP增长贡献率高达44.5%，消费作为终极需求，在科技不断赋能下， 带来了效率革命，所产生的增长动能或许最为强劲，在市场波动中形成了"安全垫"。 作为现代消费社会里重要的"水电煤"，并且集合了AI、无人配送、低空经济等技术应用的即时配送行业，近些年迅猛发展，就很好地佐证了这一点。 根据沙利文《2024年中国即时配送行业趋势白皮书》，去年中国即配行业订单规模达482.8亿单，同比增长17.6%，2030年行业有望达到千亿级别规模，其 中，AI技术应用将助力配送进一步提效。 根据独立第三方即时配送服务平台——顺丰同城发布的2024年财报，公司全年总收入157.46亿元，同比增长27.1%；全年净利润1.32亿元，同比大幅增长 ...

证券研究报告·海外公司点评·软件服务(HS) 顺丰同城（09699.HK） 2024 年年报点评：利润稳健释放，看好 2025 年继续成长 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 12,390 | 15,746 | 19,602 | 23,622 | 27,874 | | 同比(%) | 20.69 | 27.09 | 24.49 | 20.51 | 18.00 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 50.60 | 132.46 | 247.34 | 362.38 | 491.45 | | 同比(%) | 117.63 | 161.80 | 86.73 | 46.51 | 35.62 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.06 | 0.14 | 0.27 | 0.40 | 0.54 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 147.46 | 56.33 | 30.16 | 20.59 | 15.18 | [ ...