Core Viewpoint - NetEase Cloud Music is navigating challenges with a revenue decline while achieving significant profit growth due to cost-cutting measures and tax asset recognition [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2025, NetEase Cloud Music reported a revenue decline of 2.4% year-on-year to 7.759 billion yuan [1]. - The adjusted net profit for the same year was 2.860 billion yuan, a substantial increase of 68.2%, primarily driven by the recognition of deferred tax assets amounting to 747 million yuan [1]. - Excluding the tax asset impact, the adjusted net profit was approximately 2.1 billion yuan [1]. Group 2: Revenue Breakdown - Online music service revenue grew by 12.0% year-on-year to 5.994 billion yuan, with subscription revenue increasing by 13.3% to 5.053 billion yuan, driven by membership growth [1]. - Conversely, revenue from social entertainment services and other sources fell by 32.0% to 1.765 billion yuan, mainly due to the closure of the live streaming feature after a 2024 update [1]. Group 3: Cost Management - Sales expenses decreased by 33.2% to 409 million yuan, reflecting a more cautious approach to promotions and advertising [2]. - Management expenses fell by 4.4%, and R&D expenses decreased by 2.3%, attributed to improved resource utilization and a focus on core products and AI capabilities [2]. Group 4: Market Position and User Engagement - NetEase Cloud Music maintained a relatively stable market position, introducing K-POP labels and enhancing its content library with over 1 million registered independent musicians and more than 5.6 million uploaded tracks by the end of 2025 [2]. - The platform's user scale and engagement improved, with a DAU/MAU ratio exceeding 30% and an increase in average daily listening time on mobile [2].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that NetEase Cloud Music is currently navigating challenges, with a decline in revenue but an increase in adjusted net profit due to tax asset recognition [2][3][4] Group 2 - In 2025, NetEase Cloud Music's revenue decreased by 2.4% year-on-year to 77.59 billion yuan, while adjusted net profit increased by 68.2% to 28.60 billion yuan, primarily due to the recognition of deferred tax assets [2] - The decline in revenue is attributed to a restructuring of the business, with online music service revenue growing by 12.0% to 59.94 billion yuan, driven by a 13.3% increase in subscription revenue [3] - The social entertainment services and other revenue fell by 32.0% to 17.65 billion yuan, mainly due to the closure of the live streaming feature after a version update in late 2024 [3] Group 3 - Cost-cutting measures contributed to the increase in net profit, with sales expenses decreasing by 33.2% to 4.09 billion yuan, reflecting a more cautious approach to advertising and promotion [4] - Management expenses decreased by 4.4%, and R&D expenses fell by 2.3% due to improved resource utilization and a focus on core products and AI capabilities [4] Group 4 - NetEase Cloud Music maintains a relatively stable market position, having introduced K-POP labels and expanded its content library, with over 1 million registered independent musicians and more than 5.6 million uploaded tracks by the end of 2025 [5] - The platform's user scale and activity increased, with a DAU/MAU ratio above 30% and an increase in average daily listening time on mobile [5]

核心观点： | | | | [Table_ 货币单位：人民币 Finance] | 2024A | 2025A | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万元） | 7,950 | 7,759 | 8,539 | 9,323 | 10,094 | | 增长率（ % ） | 1% | -2% | 10% | 9% | 8% | | EBITDA（百万元） | 1,585 | 2,078 | 2,435 | 2,843 | 3,348 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 1,700 | 2,860 | 2,206 | 2,561 | 2,998 | | 增长率（ ） % | 108% | 68% | -23% | 16% | 17% | | EPS（元/股） | 8 | 14 | 10 | 12 | 14 | | 市盈率（x） | 19 | 11 | 15 | 13 | 11 | | ROE（%） | 15% | 21% | 14% | 14% | 14% | | EV/EBITDA（x） | 20 | 15 | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for NetEase Cloud Music, indicating a potential return of over 15% over the next 12 months [14]. Core Insights - NetEase Cloud Music's total revenue for FY25 declined by 2% YoY to RMB7.76 billion, slightly below the Bloomberg consensus estimate of RMB7.91 billion. However, adjusted net profit increased by 68% YoY to RMB2.86 billion, aligning with consensus estimates [1]. - The company has slightly lowered its FY26 total revenue forecast by 1% due to a soft non-subscription business, but maintains a solid earnings growth outlook for FY26 [1][6]. - The target price has been adjusted to HK$245.00, down from HK$330.00, based on a 23x FY26E non-GAAP PE, reflecting a decline in sector valuation [1][9]. Financial Performance Summary - FY25 total revenue: RMB7.76 billion, down 2% YoY; adjusted net profit: RMB2.86 billion, up 68% YoY [2]. - FY26 revenue forecast: RMB8.42 billion, expected to grow by 8.5% YoY; adjusted net profit forecast: RMB2.14 billion, expected to decline by 25.3% YoY [2][7]. - Gross margin for FY26 is projected at 37.0%, with an operating profit margin of 22.9% [2][11]. Revenue Breakdown - Online music services revenue grew by 8% YoY to RMB3.0 billion in 2H25, while membership subscription revenue increased by 12% YoY to RMB2.6 billion [6]. - Non-subscription music revenue declined by 7% YoY in 2H25, primarily due to a drop in digital album sales [6]. - Social entertainment revenue fell by 17% YoY to RMB905 million in 2H25, although it stabilized with a 5% HoH growth [6]. Margin Analysis - Overall gross profit margin (GPM) increased by 2.7 percentage points YoY but declined by 1.4 percentage points HoH to 35.0% in 2H25 [6]. - Adjusted operating margin improved by 4.6 percentage points YoY to 21.1% in 2H25, driven by operating leverage and effective expense control [6]. Valuation Metrics - The current price of NetEase Cloud Music is HK$165.40, with an upside potential of 48.1% to the target price of HK$245.00 [3]. - The company is currently trading at a P/E of 15x for FY26E, which is considered attractive compared to the target P/E of 23x [1][9].

Core Viewpoint - The report from CICC maintains the Non-IFRS net profit forecast for NetEase Cloud Music (09899) for 2026/27, with a target price of HKD 224, indicating a 22% upside from the current price [2][7]. Financial Performance - For 2025, the company reported revenues of CNY 7.759 billion, aligning closely with CICC's expectation of CNY 7.807 billion, and a Non-IFRS net profit of CNY 2.860 billion, which is also in line with expectations [8]. - Online music revenue for 2025 reached CNY 5.994 billion, reflecting a 12% year-on-year increase, with subscription revenue growing by 13.3% and non-subscription revenue by 5.2% [8]. - The gross margin for 2025 improved to 35.7%, up by 2 percentage points year-on-year, while sales, management, and R&D expenses decreased [4][8]. Business Segments - The social entertainment and other revenue for 2025 was CNY 1.765 billion, down 32% year-on-year due to a cautious operational strategy, although there was a slight quarter-on-quarter increase in the second half of 2025 [3][8]. - The company aims to expand its paid user base in 2026, with expectations for a 10.8% year-on-year growth in online music revenue, and a 12.1% increase in subscription revenue [8]. Industry Outlook - The industry is experiencing concerns regarding stability, but NetEase Cloud Music's user base remains relatively stable compared to competitors [5][10]. - The company has launched its self-developed AI recommendation model, Climber, and is focusing on user experience and continuous innovation to maintain a differentiated position in the market [10].

Core Viewpoint - The report from CICC maintains the Non-IFRS net profit forecast for NetEase Cloud Music (09899) for 2026/27, with a target price of HKD 224, indicating a 22% upside from the current price [1] Financial Performance - For 2025, the company's revenue reached RMB 7.759 billion, aligning closely with CICC's expectation of RMB 7.807 billion, while the Non-IFRS net profit was RMB 2.860 billion, also in line with expectations [2] - Online music revenue for 2025 was RMB 5.994 billion, reflecting a 12% year-on-year increase, with subscription revenue growing by 13.3% and non-subscription revenue by 5.2% [2] - The company aims to expand its paid user base in 2026, with expectations for online music revenue to grow by 10.8% year-on-year, and subscription revenue to increase by 12.1% [2] Cost Management and Profitability - The gross margin for 2025 improved to 35.7%, an increase of 2 percentage points year-on-year [2] - Sales, management, and R&D expenses decreased year-on-year, indicating a disciplined approach to spending [2] - CICC forecasts a 20% increase in operating profit for 2026, projecting it to reach RMB 1.95 billion [2] Industry Dynamics - The industry is experiencing concerns regarding stability, but NetEase Cloud Music's user base remains relatively stable compared to competitors [3] - The company has launched its self-developed AI recommendation model, Climber, and is focusing on user experience and innovation [3] - CICC emphasizes the importance of monitoring competitors' strategies in copyright and user acquisition [3]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CICC maintains the Non-IFRS net profit forecast for NetEase Cloud Music (09899) for 2026 and 2027, with a target price of HKD 224, indicating a 22% upside from the current price [1]. Financial Performance - The 2025 Non-IFRS net profit of NetEase Cloud Music is in line with expectations, reporting revenue of RMB 7.759 billion and a Non-IFRS net profit of RMB 2.860 billion, both closely matching CICC's forecasts [2]. Music Business Outlook - The online music revenue for 2025 is projected at RMB 5.994 billion, reflecting a 12% year-on-year increase, driven by a 13.3% growth in subscription revenue and a 5.2% increase in non-subscription revenue. The company aims to expand its paid user base in 2026, with an expected 10.8% growth in online music revenue and a 12.1% increase in subscription revenue [3]. - Social entertainment and other revenues for 2025 are expected to decline by 32% to RMB 1.765 billion due to a cautious operational strategy, although there is a slight improvement in the second half of 2025 [3]. Profitability and Cost Management - The gross margin for 2025 is reported at 35.7%, an increase of 2 percentage points year-on-year. Operating expenses for sales, management, and R&D have decreased, indicating controlled spending. The company plans to increase investment in 2026, particularly in content costs and customer acquisition [4]. - The operating profit for 2026 is anticipated to grow by 20% to RMB 1.95 billion, supported by healthy growth in the music business [4]. Industry Dynamics and Innovation - The industry landscape is stabilizing, with concerns about competition. NetEase Cloud Music's user base remains relatively stable, and the company is focusing on user experience and innovation, including the launch of its AI-generated recommendation model, Climber [5]. - The company is positioned to differentiate itself in the market, with a focus on user retention and experience as key strategies [5].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported 2025 performance that aligns with expectations, showing a slight decline in revenue but stable Non-IFRS net profit, indicating resilience in its business model [1][2]. Performance Review - In 2025, the company achieved revenue of 7.759 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.4%, which is in line with expectations but slightly below Bloomberg consensus [1]. - Non-IFRS net profit for 2025 was 2.860 billion yuan, meeting both internal and external forecasts [1]. Development Trends - The online music segment is expected to see growth in both volume and price in 2026, with a projected revenue increase of 10.8% year-on-year [1]. - Online music revenue for 2025 was 5.994 billion yuan, reflecting a 12% increase, driven by a 13.3% rise in subscription revenue [1]. - Social entertainment revenue for 2025 was 1.765 billion yuan, down 32%, but showed slight improvement in the second half of 2025 [1]. Profitability and Cost Management - The gross margin for 2025 improved to 35.7%, up 2 percentage points year-on-year, while sales, management, and R&D expenses decreased [2]. - The company plans to increase investment in 2026, focusing on content costs and customer acquisition [2]. - Operating profit is expected to grow by 20% in 2026, reaching 1.95 billion yuan [2]. Industry Outlook - The industry is experiencing stabilization, with user experience and continuous innovation being key focus areas [2]. - The company has launched its AI-driven recommendation model, Climber, to enhance user engagement and differentiate itself in the market [2]. - Despite competitive pressures, the company is expected to maintain a stable user base and mitigate risks from competitors' strategies [2]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company maintains its Non-IFRS net profit forecasts for 2026 and 2027, with current price corresponding to 16/15 times the Non-IFRS P/E for those years [2]. - The target price has been adjusted down by 31% to 224 HKD, reflecting a 22% upside potential from the current price [2].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported its 2025 performance, showing mixed results with a slight decline in revenue but significant growth in adjusted net profit, primarily due to tax asset recognition. Financial Performance - The company achieved revenue of 7.759 billion RMB, a year-over-year decrease of 2.4%, compared to Bloomberg's consensus estimate of 7.913 billion RMB [1] - Gross profit reached 2.770 billion RMB, up 3.3% year-over-year, with a gross margin of 35.7%, slightly below the expected 36.4% [1] - Operating profit increased by 38.5% year-over-year to 1.622 billion RMB, attributed to reduced sales expenses [1] - Adjusted net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.860 billion RMB, a substantial increase of 68.2% year-over-year, mainly due to the recognition of deferred tax assets amounting to 747 million RMB [1] Revenue Breakdown - Online music service revenue was 5.994 billion RMB, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 12.0%, with subscription revenue increasing by 13.3% to 5.053 billion RMB [2] - Social entertainment services and other revenue fell by 32.0% to 1.765 billion RMB, primarily due to the closure of the live streaming entry after a version update at the end of 2024 [2] User Engagement - The platform's user base and activity levels showed year-over-year growth, maintaining a DAU/MAU ratio above 30%, with increased daily listening time on mobile [2] Content Strategy - The company is enhancing its content ecosystem through partnerships with domestic and international copyright holders, introducing K-POP labels and expanding its Chinese music library [2] - The independent musician ecosystem has grown to over 1 million registered musicians and over 5.6 million uploaded tracks, strengthening the platform's unique content supply [3] Innovation and Cost Management - The company launched the AI-based recommendation model "Climber" and introduced new features to enhance user experience, such as the "Shen Guang Player" and AI songwriting tools [3] - Sales expenses decreased by 33.2% to 409 million RMB, reflecting a more cautious approach to promotions and advertising [3] Future Outlook - The company plans to focus on expanding its membership base, leading to increased content production and marketing investments, with adjusted net profit forecasts for 2026 and 2027 revised down by 15% and 13% respectively [4] - The long-term profitability potential remains positive due to scale effects, maintaining a "buy" rating [4]

在线音乐收入增速略微放缓 维持"买入"评级 机构：华泰证券 考虑到会员结构对ARPU 的摊薄影响以及公司计划加大营销投入，我们下调26/27、引入28E 调整后归 母净利润为22.39/25.20/27.50 亿元（下调16%/16%/-）。基于26 年调整后归母净利润，给予公司20.71x 26E PE（同可比公司彭博一致预期均值），目标价239.40 港元（前值360.42 港币/27xPE），维持"买 入"评级。 研究员：夏路路/詹博/朱珺/郑裕佳 风险提示：订阅用户增长放缓；内容成本抬升；行业监管收紧等。 25H1/H2 在线音乐收入同比增速分别为15.9%/8.3%，其中会员订阅收入同比增长15.2%/11.6%，我们估 计环比降速主因会员结构变化带来月度ARPU摊薄，料订阅会员规模仍维持稳健增长。公司预计26 年将 继续聚焦热爱音乐的年轻群体，以扩大会员规模为核心重点，加大市场营销和内容自制投入，同时优化 部分渠道折扣力度，有望推动订阅收入量价齐升。 推广费用持续优化，净利润略超预期 25 全年公司毛利率同比上升2pct 至35.7%，主因社交娱乐收入分成下降，同时内容授权成本控制良好。 25 全 ...