交银国际研究 公司更新 教育 收盘价 目标价 潜在涨幅 2024年4月10日 港元66.25 港元94.00↑ +41.9% 新东方教育科技 (9901 HK) 教培行业延续高增长，集团利润率持续改善趋势不改  2024财年3季度业绩预览：公司将于4月24日（北京时间）发布业绩， 个股评级 我们预计收入10.88亿美元，同比+44%（人民币77.8亿元，同比+50%）。 买入 估算调整后运营利润1.3亿美元，净利润1.2亿美元，相比此前预期，下调 毛利润及运营利润1200万美元，运营利润率/净利润率下调1个百分点至 12%/11%。 1年股价表现 9901 HK  新业务收入占比提升，对利润率优化有小幅负面作用。分业务看，预计出 160% MSCI中国指数 国留学备考收入同比+32%/高中+16%/非学科素养+115%/东方甄选+45%，对 140% 120% 比Visible Alpha预期的34%/23%/114%/48%。收入增量主要来自出国咨询、 100% 80% 高中，以及创新业务的非学科素养和东方甄选。我们估算3季度创新业务 60% 收入占比51%，但东方甄选受扩张、供应链建设及品牌日活动等因 ...

Core Viewpoint - New Oriental Education and Technology Group Inc. will report its financial results for the third quarter ended February 29, 2024, on April 24, 2024, before the U.S. market opens [1] Group 1: Financial Reporting - The earnings conference call will take place at 8 AM U.S. Eastern Time on April 24, 2024, which corresponds to 8 PM Beijing/Hong Kong Time on the same day [1] - Participants can register for the conference call in advance and will receive dial-in numbers and a unique personal PIN upon registration [3] - A live and archived webcast of the conference call will be available for access [3][4] Group 2: Company Overview - New Oriental is a provider of private educational services in China, offering a variety of educational programs, services, and products [5] - The company's offerings include educational services, test preparation courses, private label products, livestreaming e-commerce, and overseas study consulting services [5] - New Oriental is listed on both NYSE (NYSE: EDU) and SEHK (9901.SEHK), with its American Depositary Shares (ADSs) representing ten common shares [5]

【新东方回应“归巢计划”：主要针对东方甄选及新东方文旅等新兴业务发展需要 不涉及义务教育阶段学科类培训】财联社2月26日电，新东方教育科技集团发布声明，日前，新东方“归巢计划”受到部分媒体关注，针对有关情况特作如下说明：一、“归巢计划”为2022年8月首次提出，主要针对东方甄选及新东方文旅等新东方新兴业务发展需要，旨在安置老员工再就业，不涉及义务教育阶段学科类培训。该计划并非针对近期发布的《校外培训管理条例》征求意见稿。新东方始终认为，只有依法治理才能保障行业健康发展。新东方一如既往坚决拥护中央“双减”重大决策部署，原有义务教育阶段学科类培训已按要求完成整改，转为非营利主体，并与上市主体剥离。新东方坚决执行中央“双减”文件关于“各地不再审批新的面向义务教育阶段学生的学科类校外培训机构”的政策要求，已在新东方集团全面落实。 ...

Core Viewpoint - New Oriental's "Return to Nest Plan" has sparked significant discussion, with the company confirming that this initiative has always existed [1] Group 1: Recruitment and Job Opportunities - New Oriental is currently hiring for positions in education and cultural tourism across various cities, including Xiamen, Dalian, and Xi'an [1] - Positions in the cultural tourism sector include roles such as cultural tourism managers and live broadcast directors [1] Group 2: Company Expansion - In the past two months, New Oriental has established new companies in multiple locations, including Chongqing, Tangshan, Guizhou, and Ningbo [1]

转自：北京商报 近日，西安新东方发布“归巢计划”，力邀疫情期间离开的员工回归。“好久不见，甚是想念，欢迎回家”，这是新东方在官网上对离职员工发出的热情呼唤。据悉，本次招聘岗位除素质素养、初高中、智慧学习机等教师岗位外，还增设了文旅主播、文旅直播运营、文旅顾问、文旅短视频运营、视频编导等职位。（21世纪经济报道） 海量资讯、精准解读，尽在新浪财经APP ...

Group 1: Industry Overview - The education and training industry in 2023 has been influenced by policy environment, technological advancements, consumer demand, and market competition [1] - The "double reduction" policy has eliminated K9 academic training but has not diminished consumer demand, making it crucial for education institutions to understand and meet these needs [1] - The head effect continues, with leading companies leveraging content advantages and integrating niche markets while tech-driven firms transition towards digitalization [1] Group 2: Company Developments - Major education companies like New Oriental, Xueersi, and Gaotu have diversified their business models, entering live e-commerce and expanding into cultural tourism [1] - Good Future has shifted its focus to quality education and educational technology, launching MathGPT, a large model specifically for mathematics [1] - Companies like NetEase Youdao and Yuanfudao are exploring educational hardware, utilizing technology to create innovative learning products [1] Group 3: Financial Performance - Among 10 A-share listed education companies, 5 reported profits while 5 continued to incur losses, indicating a mixed financial landscape [2] - The K12 education sector has shown signs of recovery, with improved market conditions for compliant training businesses [2] - Xueda Education has focused on personalized education for high school students and is expanding into vocational education, which is expected to become a significant growth area [2] Group 4: Market Trends - The global education technology sector is experiencing a slowdown in investment, but is projected to grow significantly over the next decade, driven by AIGC technology [3] - The personal consumption market for educational hardware in China is approximately 50 billion yuan, with a compound annual growth rate of 15.14% expected from 2019 to 2026 [4] - The vocational education sector is undergoing rapid transformation, supported by favorable policies and increasing demand for applied education [5] Group 5: Future Predictions - The vocational education market is approaching a trillion yuan in size, with trends indicating a shift towards legal and structured development [5] - The integration of AI and digitalization in vocational education is expected to enhance efficiency and effectiveness [6] - The early childhood education sector is facing challenges but still holds significant potential for growth, particularly with supportive policies and changing family education perspectives [7] Group 6: Emerging Opportunities - The rise of "programming + X" courses indicates a trend towards interdisciplinary education, driven by technological advancements [8] - The education industry is expected to see more innovative products and services as it adapts to consumer demands and technological changes [9] - The international education market is evolving, with increasing opportunities for domestic companies to expand abroad and adapt to local needs [10]

Core Viewpoint - The significant decline in the market value of Dongfang Zhenxuan has prompted founder Yu Minhong to take action, including a commitment to purchase shares to stabilize the stock price [1][4]. Financial Performance - Dongfang Zhenxuan reported total revenue of 2.8 billion yuan for the first half of the 2024 fiscal year, a year-on-year increase of 34.4%, but net profit fell sharply by 57.4% to 249 million yuan [1][2]. - The company's total cost of revenue was 1.7 billion yuan, reflecting a 55% increase year-on-year, primarily due to rising inventory and transportation costs associated with self-operated products [2]. - The gross profit margin decreased from 47.2% to 39.1% compared to the same period last year, attributed to the rapid growth of self-operated products and live-streaming e-commerce [2]. Employee Compensation and Costs - Dongfang Zhenxuan allocated 624.8 million yuan for employee compensation, including stock options, which is a 167.7% increase from the previous year [2]. - The company has increased its workforce significantly, with 1,785 full-time employees and 720 part-time employees, marking an increase of 525 and 310 respectively [1][2]. Strategic Direction - The company aims to differentiate itself from other MCN (Multi-Channel Network) institutions by focusing on self-operated products rather than solely relying on live-streaming sales [2][3]. - Yu Minhong emphasized the dual-driven model of traffic economy and product economy, combining influencer marketing with self-operated products [3]. Market Reaction - Following the announcement of the mid-year financial results, Dongfang Zhenxuan's stock price fell to 20.95 HKD, the lowest since its rise to prominence [1]. - Despite a brief recovery in stock price after Yu Minhong's intervention, the market sentiment remains cautious, with investors concerned about the company's profitability and growth strategy [1][4].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - New Oriental reported a significant increase in net income attributable to the company, reaching $30.1 million, which represents a 4007.4% increase year-over-year [15] - Non-GAAP operating margin improved to 5.9%, while operating income was $21.3 million compared to a loss of $2.5 million in the same period last year [15][16] - Total cash and cash equivalents, term deposits, and short-term investments amounted to approximately $4.8 billion [12] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The overseas test prep business saw a revenue increase of 47% in dollar terms or 50% in RMB terms year-over-year [6] - The overseas study consulting business recorded a revenue increase of about 32% in dollar terms or 35% in RMB terms year-over-year [6] - The adults and university students business experienced a revenue increase of 43% in dollar terms or 46% in RMB terms year-over-year [6] - New educational business initiatives reported a revenue increase of about 68% in dollar terms or 72% in RMB terms year-over-year [8] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The top 10 cities in China contributed over 60% of the revenue from non-academic tutoring courses [7] - The intelligent learning system and devices business reported approximately 181,000 active paid users [8] - The cultural tourism business, which includes study tours and research camps, conducted activities in over 50 cities, with the top 10 cities contributing over 55% of revenue [9] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company plans to moderately increase learning center capacity by about 20% year-over-year, focusing on cities with better performance [19] - New Oriental aims to integrate AI and ChatGPT technologies into its educational offerings to enhance growth and operational efficiency [20] - The company is committed to maintaining a healthy market share growth and creating sustainable value for customers and shareholders in the long term [5] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the strong demand in the education sector and the reduced competition due to market consolidation during COVID [24][53] - The company expects total net revenue for the next quarter to be in the range of $1,070.9 million to $1,093.5 million, representing a year-over-year increase of 42% to 45% [19] - Management highlighted the importance of balancing top-line growth with margin expansion, indicating a cautious approach to rapid expansion [32] Other Important Information - Operating costs and expenses for the quarter increased by 32.4% year-over-year, primarily due to growth in East Buy's private-label products and live-streaming e-commerce business [14] - The company has authorized a share repurchase program of up to $500 million, extending it through May 31, 2024 [13] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is driving the strong growth in the third quarter guidance? - Management indicated strong demand in the education sector and less competition due to market consolidation as key drivers for the expected revenue growth of 42% to 45% [24] Question: What considerations are there for the learning center expansion? - Management noted that the expansion will be moderate, focusing on cities with better performance, and will monitor the pace of new openings based on operational results [28] Question: What are the bottlenecks for faster expansion? - Management mentioned that the OMO model allows for better utilization of existing resources, balancing growth with margin expansion [32] Question: Can you provide insights on margin expansion? - Management highlighted that the non-GAAP operating margin expanded due to improved utilization rates and higher margins from new business initiatives [37] Question: How is the cultural tourism business conducted? - Management explained that the tourism business includes study tours and research camps, with revenue recorded separately from educational services [42] Question: What are the long-term margin expectations for new education businesses? - Management expects the margin for new education businesses to exceed 20% in the future, driven by lower fixed costs and higher utilization [47]

Financial Performance - For the second quarter of fiscal year 2024, net revenue increased by 36.3% year-over-year to $869.6 million[5] - Operating profit for the second quarter was $21.3 million, compared to an operating loss of $2.5 million in the same period last year, representing a 957.8% improvement[6] - Net profit attributable to New Oriental shareholders surged by 4,007.4% year-over-year to $30.1 million[5] - For the first half of fiscal year 2024, net revenue rose by 42.4% year-over-year to $1.97 billion[7] - Non-GAAP operating profit for the second quarter was $50.9 million, a 212.2% increase from $16.3 million in the previous year[6] - Basic earnings per ADS for the second quarter was $0.18, compared to $0.00 in the same period last year, reflecting a 4,092.1% increase[6] - Non-GAAP net profit attributable to New Oriental for the second quarter was $50.2 million, up 182.6% from $17.8 million year-over-year[6] - For the first six months of fiscal year 2024, the company reported net revenue of $1.969 billion, a year-over-year increase of 42.4%[17] - The company reported a net profit of $34.7 million for the quarter, up from $16.6 million in the same quarter of the previous year, which is an increase of approximately 109.5%[29] - The company reported a net profit of $101.167 million for the six months ended November 30, 2023, reflecting an increase from the previous period[45] Operational Metrics - The total number of schools and learning centers increased to 843, up by 50 from 793 as of August 31, 2023, and up by 135 from 708 as of November 30, 2022[9] - The total number of schools as of November 30, 2023, was 83[9] - The company’s new education business achieved a revenue increase of 68.3% year-over-year, with 786,000 registrations in non-subject tutoring services[12] - The company plans to continue expanding its market presence and investing in new technologies to drive future growth[36] Cash Flow and Assets - The net cash flow from operating activities for the quarter was approximately $300.6 million, with capital expenditures of $43.4 million[15] - The company’s cash and cash equivalents totaled approximately $1.94 billion, with total short-term investments amounting to $1.57 billion as of November 30, 2023[16] - Cash and cash equivalents increased to $1.94 billion as of November 30, 2023, from $1.66 billion as of May 31, 2023, showing a growth of about 16.7%[26] - The company’s total current assets reached $4.98 billion, up from $4.41 billion, reflecting an increase of approximately 12.7%[26] - The total assets as of November 30, 2023, amounted to $7.13 billion, up from $6.39 billion as of May 31, 2023, reflecting a growth of approximately 11.5%[27] - Total liabilities increased to $3.04 billion as of November 30, 2023, compared to $2.58 billion as of May 31, 2023, marking an increase of about 17.8%[27] Deferred Revenue and Liabilities - Deferred revenue at the end of the second quarter was $1.645 billion, representing a 44.4% increase compared to $1.139 billion at the end of the same quarter last year[16] - Deferred revenue as of November 30, 2023, was $1.64 billion, compared to $1.34 billion as of May 31, 2023, representing an increase of about 22.9%[27] - Total liabilities were reported at $3,035,687, showing a minimal change of $782 from the prior period[49] Shareholder Information - The company has authorized a share repurchase plan of up to $400 million, extended until May 31, 2024, with approximately 6.0 million ADS repurchased for about $194.2 million as of January 23, 2024[11] - Basic earnings per American Depositary Share (ADS) for the quarter were $0.18, compared to $0.00 in the same period last year, indicating a positive shift in profitability[32] Accounting and Compliance - The financial results are prepared in accordance with International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS)[19] - The company emphasizes the importance of Non-GAAP financial metrics for assessing performance and liquidity[24] - The adjustments made in the financial statements reflect the differences in accounting policies between US GAAP and IFRS, ensuring compliance with both standards[44] - The company has engaged Deloitte for limited assurance on the financial adjustments, confirming no significant discrepancies were found[43] Future Outlook - The company’s future outlook includes continued focus on market expansion and potential new product development[1] - The management's forward-looking statements are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties, which may lead to actual results differing materially from those projected[23]

Core Viewpoint - New Oriental Education & Technology Group Inc. reported strong financial results for the second fiscal quarter of 2024, with significant year-over-year growth in revenues and net income, indicating a robust recovery and expansion in its educational services and related businesses [1][4]. Financial Highlights - Total net revenues for the second fiscal quarter increased by 36.3% year over year to US$869.6 million [2][6]. - Operating income was US$21.3 million, a turnaround from a loss of US$2.5 million in the same period of the prior fiscal year [2][9]. - Net income attributable to New Oriental surged by 4,007.4% year over year to US$30.1 million [2][10]. - Non-GAAP operating income for the quarter was US$50.9 million, representing a 212.2% increase year over year [2][9]. - The company reported a positive operating cash flow of US$300.6 million for the quarter [4][12]. Operational Highlights - The total number of schools and learning centers increased to 843 as of November 30, 2023, up from 793 as of August 31, 2023 [3]. - The overseas test preparation and overseas study consulting businesses grew by approximately 46.5% and 31.7% year over year, respectively [4]. - Domestic test preparation for adults and university students recorded a growth of approximately 42.7% year over year [4]. - New educational business initiatives achieved a revenue growth of 68.3% year over year, with non-academic tutoring courses attracting approximately 786,000 student enrollments [4]. Cost and Expenses - Operating costs and expenses for the quarter were US$848.3 million, a 32.4% increase year over year [7]. - Selling and marketing expenses increased by 62.2% year over year to US$155.0 million [7]. - General and administrative expenses rose by 29.6% year over year to US$270.7 million [7]. Balance Sheet and Cash Flow - As of November 30, 2023, New Oriental had cash and cash equivalents totaling approximately US$1.9 billion, with total cash, cash equivalents, term deposits, and short-term investments amounting to approximately US$4.8 billion [13]. - Deferred revenue increased by 44.4% year over year to US$1.645 billion [13]. Outlook - New Oriental expects total net revenues for the third quarter of fiscal year 2024 to be in the range of US$1,070.9 million to US$1,093.5 million, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 42% to 45% [18].