Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock market indices collectively rose this month, with the Hang Seng Index increasing by 6.85% to close at 27,387.11 points, the Hang Seng Tech Index rising by 3.67% to 5,718.18 points, and the China Enterprises Index up by 4.53% to 9,317.09 points [2] - The Hang Seng Index showed resilience, climbing from a low of 26,498.35 points at the beginning of the month to a recent high of 28,056.10 points before a slight pullback [3] Sector Performance - High-performing sectors this month included AI, consumer goods, and real estate, driven by favorable policies and strong earnings [4] - Notable stock performances included: - Zhizhu (02513.HK) surged by 94.66%, recognized as the "first global large model stock" with strong market confidence in its AGI technology [4] - Woan Robotics (06600.HK) also rose by 94.67%, benefiting from AI and smart manufacturing policies [4] - Mingming Hen Mang (01768.HK) increased by 73.71%, supported by impressive revenue growth of 75.2% year-on-year [4][5] - Changfei Optical Fiber (06869.HK) saw a 61.90% increase, driven by rising demand for optical fiber due to AI computing infrastructure [5] Declining Stocks - Declining stocks included: - Zhu Feng Gold (01815.HK), which fell by 22.13% due to fluctuations in international gold prices [8] - Ganfeng Lithium (01772.HK) decreased by 16.46% as lithium carbonate futures prices dropped significantly [9] Institutional Insights - Institutional perspectives suggest a continuation of the spring market rally, focusing on dual drivers of policy and earnings [10] - Everbright Securities noted that the Hong Kong market is transitioning from being driven by funds to being driven by earnings, with a structural rebound expected in Q1 [10] - CITIC Securities highlighted three key investment directions: "14th Five-Year Plan" policies, sectors benefiting from policy reversals, and areas likely to gain from the spring rally [10] Education and Technology Sector - The education sector saw significant gains, with China Spring (01969.HK) rising by 22.76% due to AI integration in educational applications [11] - Longfei Optical Fiber (06889.HK) also experienced a slight increase, reflecting ongoing high demand for computing power [13] Commodity Market Impact - The commodity market faced volatility, with gold and other precious metals experiencing significant price fluctuations, impacting related stocks negatively [15][18] - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange announced margin adjustments to curb excessive speculation, which may further influence market stability [17]

Core Viewpoint - The company maintains a "Buy" rating for New Oriental-S (09901) due to strong growth in education business and recovery in the Oriental Selection segment, with revenue forecasts for FY26-FY28 increased to $5.5 billion, $6.11 billion, and $6.89 billion respectively [1] Financial Performance - In Q2 FY26, the company reported revenue of $1.191 billion, a year-on-year increase of 14.7%. The education business (including cultural tourism) generated $974 million, up 13% year-on-year, while other businesses (mainly Oriental Selection) earned $217 million, growing 22.9% [2] - The Non-GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company was $73 million, reflecting a 68.6% year-on-year increase, with a Non-GAAP net profit margin of 6.1%, expanding by 2 percentage points [2] Study Abroad Business - The revenue from study abroad exam training and consulting in Q2 FY26 was $252 million, showing a year-on-year growth of 1%, a slowdown of 29.3 percentage points compared to the same period last year. However, it remained stable compared to Q1 FY26 [3] - The company is integrating study abroad training and consulting services and expanding its target audience by increasing youth training offerings to enhance growth resilience in this segment [3] New Business Growth - New business revenue (K9 competency training and learning machine) grew by 21.6% year-on-year to $366 million, with sustained high growth in non-subject competency businesses. The continuation rate for K9 competency training and learning machines is improving, indicating enhanced product reputation [4] - The number of teaching centers increased to 1,379, a year-on-year growth of 21%, although the growth rate slowed by 2.7 percentage points compared to Q1 FY26. The company aims to improve operational efficiency by maximizing existing teaching center capacity [4] Operating Profit Margin Improvement - Despite the slowdown in high-margin study abroad business, the increase in competency business margins offsets this decline. The Non-GAAP operating profit margin in Q2 FY26 expanded by 4.7 percentage points to 7.5% year-on-year, showing an accelerating expansion trend [5] - The Non-GAAP operating profit margin for the education business was 6.6%, up by 3.5 percentage points year-on-year, while the margin for other businesses (mainly Oriental Selection) was 13%, increasing by 12.4 percentage points [5]

Core Viewpoint - Company maintains a "Buy" rating for New Oriental-S (09901) due to strong growth in education business and recovery in the Dongfang Zhenxuan segment, with revenue forecasts for FY26-FY28 adjusted to $5.5 billion, $6.11 billion, and $6.89 billion respectively [1] Financial Performance - In Q2 FY26, New Oriental reported revenue of $1.191 billion, a year-on-year increase of 14.7%, with education business (including cultural tourism) generating $974 million, up 13% [1] - Other businesses, primarily Dongfang Zhenxuan, contributed $217 million, reflecting a 22.9% year-on-year growth [1] - Non-GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company reached $73 million, a 68.6% increase year-on-year, with a Non-GAAP net profit margin of 6.1%, expanding by 2 percentage points [1] Study Abroad Business - The revenue from study abroad exam training and consulting in Q2 FY26 was $252 million, showing a year-on-year growth of 1%, but a slowdown of 29.3 percentage points compared to the previous year [2] - The company is integrating study abroad training and consulting services and expanding its target audience to enhance growth resilience in this segment [2] New Business Growth - New business segments, including K9 competency training and learning machine sales, saw a revenue increase of 21.6% to $366 million [3] - The number of teaching centers grew to 1,379, a 21% year-on-year increase, although the growth rate slowed by 2.7 percentage points compared to Q1 FY26 [3] Operating Profit Margin Improvement - Despite the slowdown in high-margin study abroad business, the increase in profitability from competency training offset this decline [4] - Q2 FY26 Non-GAAP operating profit margin expanded by 4.7 percentage points to 7.5%, with education business margin at 6.6%, up 3.5 percentage points year-on-year [4] - Other businesses, mainly Dongfang Zhenxuan, achieved a Non-GAAP operating profit margin of 13%, an increase of 12.4 percentage points year-on-year [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for the company [5][11] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of USD 1.191 billion for 2QFY26, representing a year-over-year increase of 14.7%. The education business (including cultural tourism) generated USD 974 million, up 13% YoY, while other businesses (primarily EastBuy) saw revenue of USD 217 million, a 22.9% YoY increase [3][7] - Non-GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders was USD 73 million, surging 68.6% YoY, with a Non-GAAP net margin of 6.1%, expanding by 2 percentage points YoY [3][7] - The overseas study business growth has bottomed out, with revenue from overseas test preparation and consulting at USD 252 million, a 1% YoY increase, indicating a slowdown of 29.3 percentage points compared to the previous year [8][11] - New business segments, including K9 non-academic subject tutoring and learning tablets, achieved a revenue growth of 21.6% YoY to USD 366 million, with the number of learning centers increasing to 1,379, up 21% YoY [4][9] - Operating margins are improving, with the Non-GAAP operating margin expanding by 4.7 percentage points YoY to 7.5% in 2QFY26, driven by margin improvements in new businesses [10][11] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue forecasts for FY26-FY28 have been raised to USD 5.5 billion, USD 6.11 billion, and USD 6.89 billion, respectively, from previous estimates of USD 5.38 billion, USD 5.98 billion, and USD 6.73 billion [5][11] - Non-GAAP net profit forecasts for FY26-FY28 have been adjusted to USD 570 million, USD 629 million, and USD 700 million, respectively, up from previous forecasts of USD 555 million, USD 610 million, and USD 679 million [5][11] - The company is moderating its full-year learning center expansion pace to 10% to improve capacity utilization rates, indicating a strategic shift towards operational efficiency [11]

Core Viewpoint - New Oriental's total revenue for the second quarter of fiscal year 2026 increased by 15% year-on-year to $1.191 billion, exceeding market consensus by 3% and surpassing the company's previous guidance of 9% to 12% [1] Financial Performance - Non-GAAP operating profit surged by 223% year-on-year to $89 million, exceeding consensus expectations by 62%, with a corresponding Non-GAAP operating profit margin of 7.5%, which is 2.8 percentage points higher than the consensus estimate of 4.7% [1] Future Outlook - Looking ahead, the overall industry situation has not yet recovered, and the merger of the company's test preparation and study abroad consulting businesses is expected to lead to a decline in study abroad revenue [1] - Based on the upward revision of performance expectations, the target price has been raised from HKD 49 to HKD 52, with a rating of "outperform the market" [1] Operational Efficiency - The company has observed ongoing effectiveness in cost reduction and efficiency enhancement measures, with progress noted in teacher allocation optimization and product diversification across various dimensions, including OMO, 1V1, small class courses, and subject expansion [1] Business Sustainability - The company's K12 business shows sustainable growth potential, while the study abroad segment faces revenue pressure; however, the company is determined to improve the profitability of this segment [1] - Despite maintaining low double-digit revenue growth, investors are encouraged to focus more on profit growth, as the management has demonstrated a strong commitment to delivering returns to investors [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for New Oriental-S (09901) [2][7] Core Insights - New Oriental's revenue for 2QFY26 reached USD 1.191 billion, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 14.7%. The education business (including cultural tourism) generated USD 974 million, up 13% YoY, while other businesses (primarily EastBuy) saw revenue of USD 217 million, a 22.9% YoY increase. Non-GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders was USD 73 million, surging 68.6% YoY, with a non-GAAP net margin of 6.1%, expanding by 2 percentage points YoY [5][9] - The overseas study business growth has bottomed out, with revenue from overseas test preparation and consulting at USD 252 million, a 1% YoY increase, indicating a slowdown of 29.3 percentage points compared to the previous year [10] - New business segments, including K9 non-academic tutoring and learning tablets, showed robust growth with a 21.6% YoY increase in revenue to USD 366 million. The number of learning centers increased to 1,379, up 21% YoY [11] - Operating margins are improving, with the non-GAAP operating margin expanding by 4.7 percentage points YoY to 7.5% in 2QFY26. The education business's non-GAAP operating margin was 6.6%, up 3.5 percentage points YoY [12] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue forecasts for FY26-FY28 have been raised to USD 5.5 billion, USD 6.11 billion, and USD 6.89 billion, respectively. Non-GAAP net profit forecasts for the same period have also been increased to USD 570 million, USD 629 million, and USD 700 million [7][13] - The financial data for FY24 to FY28 indicates a steady growth trajectory, with revenue expected to grow from USD 4.314 billion in FY24 to USD 6.887 billion in FY28, and net profit increasing from USD 464 million to USD 700 million over the same period [16]

机构：光大证券 研究员：陈彦彤/汪航宇/聂博雅 事件：FY26Q2 新东方实现净营收11.91 亿美元，同比+14.7%；实现归母净利润4545万美元，同比 +42.3%；实现Non–GAAP 归母净利润7290 万美元，同比+68.6%。 FY26Q2 核心业务多点开花，全年收入指引上调。 FY26Q2 经营利润大幅提升，经营效率优化成果显著。 FY26Q2 公司Non-GAAP 经营利润为8913 万美元，同比+206.9%。Non-GAAP 经营利润率为7.5%，同比 +4.7pcts，盈利能力大幅改善。利润率的提升主要得益于： 一是聚焦核心经营，未盲目扩张教学点，重点强化教学质量管控、优化市场费用投放；二是降本增效工 作稳步推进。公司降本增效分两阶段推进，第一阶段聚焦精简冗余成本，通过削减非必要市场开支、压 降房租、人员末位淘汰等举措实现；第二阶段主要通过组织架构调整实现规模效应，并依托AI 技术推 进人机替代，进一步降本提效。展望未来，随着后续收入持续增长，以及公司持续推进降本增效措施、 优化成本结构，预计经营利润将继续保持良好改善态势。 盈利预测、估值与评级：考虑到公司各业务发展势头向好，降本增效 ...

机构：华西证券 研究员：唐爽爽/李佳妮 事件概述 新东方发布FY26Q2（截至2025 年11 月30 日）业绩，公司FY26Q2 净收入/归母净利/Non-GAAP 归母净 利（剔除股权激励和公允价值变动损益影响）为11.91/0.455/0.729 亿美元，同比增长 14.7%/42.3%/68.6%。收入超预期主要由于新教育业务增速回升、东方甄选复苏，利润增速高于收入主 要由于毛利率提升1.2PCT、销售费用率下降2.6PCT。 出国教育业务增速分化，核心板块展现增长韧性。1）FY26Q2 海外考试准备和出国咨询业务同比变化 分别为+4.1%/-3.0%（FY26Q1 为1.0%及2.0%）。2）大学生及成人考试业务同比增长12.8%（FY26Q1 为14.4%）。 FY2026Q2 归母净利率提升幅度低于毛利率，主要由于其他收入占比下降、公允价值变动收益转负，部 分抵消了费用率优化的正向影响。（ 1 ） FY2026Q2 公司毛利率/ 归母净利率分别为53.3%/3.8% ， 同比 提升1.2/0.7PCT。（2）从费用率来看，FY2026Q2 销售/管理费用率分别为16.3%/31.4%，同比下降 ...

新东方公布2QFY26 业绩（以下简称Q2）：总收入11.91 亿美元，yoy+14.7%，增速超指引上限 机构：华泰证券 研究员：夏路路/詹博/郑裕佳 （12%）；调整后经营利润0.89 亿美元，对应OPM 为7.5%，同比提升4.7pct，大幅超过彭博一致预期 （yoy+2pct）。 公司指引3QFY26/FY26 全年美元口径总收入同比增长11~14%/8~12%（彭博一致预期12%/10%），反映 教学质量提升、需求回归和汇率顺风的影响。 我们认为公司核心K12 业务增长稳健，降本增效及多元化发展下集团利润率有望逐步改善，长期有望为 股东创造持续稳定的回报，维持"买入"。 K12 业务兑现秋季提速，经营利润率提升超预期分业务看，随着秋季K12 行业回归正价竞争，头部品牌 机构增长环比改善，教育属性新业务收入在Q2 同比增速加速至21.6%；大学生及成人教育收入同比增 长12.8%（Q1:14.4%），增速稳健；留学考培收入同比增长4.1%，留学咨询收入同比下降约3%，逆境 中展现较强韧性。得益于运营杠杆的优化、成本控制措施的逐步落地，以及东方甄选的盈利贡献，Q2 公司调整后经营利润率同比提升4.7pc ...

Market Overview - Global markets experienced turbulence on January 30, with major indices such as Nikkei 225, Hong Kong stocks, and US futures all showing declines. Gold and silver prices plummeted, and Bitcoin saw a significant drop, leading to over 270,000 liquidations in the cryptocurrency market, totaling nearly $1.7 billion [1][2]. A-Shares Performance - A-shares showed mixed results, with the Shanghai Composite Index regaining the 4100-point mark, while the ChiNext Index rebounded after hitting a low. However, over 3,800 stocks in the market declined [1]. Sector Performance - CPO and optical communication stocks surged, with companies like Lian Te Technology and Tianfu Communication rising over 11%, and Changfei Optical Fiber hitting the daily limit. Conversely, industrial and precious metals sectors faced significant declines, with over 20 stocks, including Nanshan Aluminum and Tongling Nonferrous Metals, hitting the daily limit down [1]. Precious Metals Market - International precious metals saw a sharp decline, with gold prices dropping by 4% to below $5200 per ounce, marking a daily decrease of over $200. Silver prices fell over 5%, dropping below the $110 mark [1]. Cryptocurrency Market - Major cryptocurrencies continued to decline, with Bitcoin falling over 6% to below $82,300, and Ethereum and SOL dropping over 7%. In the last 24 hours, more than 270,000 traders were liquidated, with a total liquidation amount close to $1.7 billion [2]. Dollar Index - The US dollar index rebounded, rising by 0.44% to 96.58 as of 11:30 AM Beijing time [3]. Geopolitical Factors - Ongoing tensions in the Middle East are impacting global markets. US President Trump announced plans to engage in dialogue with Iran, and the market is closely watching the announcement of the next Federal Reserve Chair, which is expected to be revealed on January 30 [5].