Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price not specified [5] Core Views - The company reported FY25Q3 revenue of $1.2 billion, a decrease of 2% year-over-year, with Non-GAAP operating profit at $140 million, down 0.2%, and Non-GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders at $110 million, down 14% [1] - Excluding self-operated products and live e-commerce, revenue grew by 21.2% this quarter, with overseas exam preparation and consulting revenues increasing by approximately 7.1% and 21.4%, respectively [2] - The company is focusing on sustainable long-term growth by enhancing product quality and operational efficiency, while also integrating innovative technologies into its educational offerings [2][3] Financial Performance Summary - The Non-GAAP operating profit margin for the quarter was 13.3%, down from 15.1% in the same period last year, impacted by slower growth in overseas business and investments in newly integrated cultural tourism operations [3] - The company has adjusted its revenue forecasts for FY25-27 to $4.9 billion, $5.8 billion, and $6.8 billion, respectively, with Non-GAAP net profits projected at $460 million, $570 million, and $690 million [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The core education business shows steady revenue growth, while the overseas and cultural tourism businesses are dragging down profits [1] - For FY25Q3, the company achieved net revenue of $1.183 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 2.0%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of $87 million, a year-on-year increase of 0.1% [5][6] Revenue Performance - FY25Q3 net revenue (excluding revenue from self-operated products and live e-commerce) was $1.038 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 21.2%, aligning with previous guidance [6] - Breakdown of revenue sources includes: - Overseas exam preparation business: revenue grew by 7.1% - Overseas consulting business: revenue grew by 21.4% - Domestic exam preparation for adults and university students: revenue grew by 17.0% - New education business: revenue grew by 34.5% [6] Profitability Analysis - FY25Q3 operating profit margin was 10.5%, up from 9.4% in the same period last year; Non-GAAP operating profit margin was 12.0%, compared to 11.8% [8] - The report anticipates that the core education business's Non-GAAP operating profit margin will improve year-on-year in FY25Q4, despite pressures from the overseas high-end one-on-one business and cultural tourism [8] Future Outlook - The company expects FY25Q4 net revenue (excluding self-operated products and live e-commerce) to be between $1.009 billion and $1.037 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 10%-13% [7] - The revenue growth rate is expected to slow down due to increased base effects and macroeconomic uncertainties [7] Financial Forecasts - The company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for FY2025-2027 to $406 million, $536 million, and $679 million, respectively, reflecting a conservative outlook [9] - Corresponding EPS for FY2025-2027 is projected to be $0.25, $0.33, and $0.42, with current stock price corresponding to P/E ratios of 19x, 14x, and 11x [9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Views - The company has shown a cautious outlook on its study abroad business and future revenue projections, focusing on improving operational efficiency [1][3] - Non-selective business revenue increased by 21.2%, slightly exceeding management guidance, while total revenue for FY2025Q3 was $1.183 billion, down 2.0% year-on-year [1][8] - The company plans to maintain a 20-25% capacity expansion for FY2025, with a focus on improving outlet utilization [2][13] Revenue and Profitability - For FY2025Q3, the company reported a net profit of $113 million, adjusted down by 14.3% due to increased tax rates [1][8] - The deferred revenue at the end of February 2025 was $1.75 billion, reflecting a 15.0% year-on-year increase, although the growth rate has slowed compared to previous quarters [1][8] - The gross margin improved to 55.1%, up 8.5 percentage points, primarily due to a decrease in the proportion of low-margin e-commerce business [2][19] Business Segments Performance - K9 education new business grew by 35%, while high school training showed strong demand with a 19% increase [2][12] - The study abroad training and consulting segments grew by 7% and 21%, respectively, but are facing downward pressure due to declining consumer spending and international relations [2][12] - E-commerce and cultural tourism revenues dropped by 49% due to the divestment of "With Huixing" [2][12] Future Outlook - For FY2025Q4, the company expects non-selective revenue to grow by 10-13%, with continued pressure on study abroad demand and a high base effect in K12 education [3][21] - The company has initiated a share buyback program, having repurchased $696 million worth of shares, and plans to adopt more diversified shareholder return methods [3][21] - The adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been lowered to $470 million, $570 million, and $690 million, respectively, reflecting a downward adjustment of 3%, 14%, and 22% [3][22]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs maintains a "Buy" rating on New Oriental-S (09901) and raises the target price to HKD 42 based on the sum-of-the-parts valuation method [1] - The firm expects investor confidence to gradually improve if the company achieves its profit margin expansion guidance for the May quarter, with the valuation multiple for New Oriental's core business projected to increase from the current 1x 12-month forward P/E [1] - Management emphasized cost control and operational efficiency during the February quarter earnings call, leading to an upward revision of non-GAAP operating profit expectations for FY25-27 by 7-14% [1] Group 2 - New Oriental's February quarter revenue and EPS fell short of expectations primarily due to a significant decline in revenue from Dongfang Zhenxuan (01797), which dropped by 59% year-on-year [2] - The firm has lowered its FY25 expectations for Dongfang Zhenxuan and adjusted the target price based on P/E to HKD 7.8 from HKD 8.2, but anticipates that Dongfang Zhenxuan will start contributing positively to group profits from the August quarter [2]

来源 | 美股研究社 又逢美股业绩报披露季。 业绩发布后，新东方美、港股股价涨跌不一：新东方 (EDU.US) 收跌 0.68% 、新东方 - S(09901.HK) 次日开盘后一度涨超 5.6% ，不过两者走势都呈高开拉升再回调态势，可见投资者 对其业绩报的理解存在分化。 原因在于，看似极具韧性的整体业绩下，其背后的隐忧引起了不少机构投资者的担忧。 2025 财 年第三单季度其净营收同比下降 2% 至 11.83 亿美元；更重要的是公司对 Q4 核心教育收入指引 则不佳，和机构预期落差较大。 目前包括麦格理、摩根大通、大华继显都先后发布研报下调新东方目标价。 教 育 主 业 重 回 高 增 长 轨 道 收入整体下滑，教育主业结构性增长，盈利稳步提升，这是新东方 2025 财年第三财季季报的概 括。 财报显示，新东方 2025 财年第三季度的净营收 虽然 同比下降 2% 至 11.83 亿美元 。 但是，若扣除 东方甄选自营产品及直播电商业务 ，其 营收 不降反升， 同比上升 21.2% 至 10.38 亿美元。 日前，中国民办教育服务的标杆企业 ——新东方发布 Q3 财报： 2025 财年前三财季（截至 2 ...

自4月3日美国总统特朗普正式宣布"对等关税"以来，中美之间多次互相提高关税，目前双方相互加征的关税都已在100%以上。且随着贸易摩擦的升温，中美两国 之间的角力有着进一步向其他领域扩散的风险。 值得关注的是：① 近日美国财政部长曾表示， 不排除以在美上市的中概公司强制退市，作为两国间谈判的筹码之一；② 2月21日， 白宫发布了"America First Investment Policy"备忘录中，也提及了在一定情况下限制美国资金投资于部分中国公司/资产的可能性。 虽然上述两条潜在的风险截至目前仅停留在口头阶段，美国政府尚没有进行任何实质性的动作。但历史上，中概退市威胁并非没有先例： 2020年~2022年间美国政 府就曾以HFCAA法案下，无法获得中概上市公司的审计监管权的原因，正式推进过中概在美退市。 尽管后续中美两国政府达成了协议，中概从美股全面退市并没真正发生，但仍有中移动等公司在争端期间被美政府强制退市，后有如中国石油等在争端缓解后仍 主动选择退市。 由此可见，无论是 强制中概从美股退市、抑或禁止美国资金投资中国资产，虽然最终落地的概率应当非常小，但属于存在先例、不能视而不见的"黑天鹅"风险。 海 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to New Oriental Education Technology (9901 HK) with a target price of HKD 46.00, indicating a potential upside of 29.8% from the current price of HKD 35.45 [1][4][14]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the overseas business may still face pressure, but cost reduction and efficiency improvements are expected to manifest in the upcoming quarter [1]. - For the fiscal year 2025, the company is projected to achieve revenue growth of 12.9% and net profit growth of 21.5% [2][9]. - The core education segment contributed 57% of total revenue, with new business revenue growing by 35%, accounting for 27% of total revenue [8][9]. Financial Overview - Revenue for fiscal year ending May 31, 2023, was USD 2,998 million, with projections of USD 4,314 million for 2024 and USD 4,871 million for 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of -3.5%, 43.9%, and 12.9% respectively [2][15]. - Net profit for 2023 was USD 259 million, expected to rise to USD 381 million in 2024 and USD 457 million in 2025, with corresponding earnings per share of USD 0.15, USD 0.23, and USD 0.28 [2][15]. - The company’s operating profit margin is projected to be 12.1% for 2025, slightly down from 13.1% in 2024 [8]. Quarterly Performance - In the third quarter of fiscal year 2025, the company reported a revenue of USD 1,183 million, a 2% decrease year-on-year, with adjusted net profit of USD 102 million [8][9]. - The report anticipates a 13% year-on-year increase in core education revenue for the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2025, amounting to USD 1,036 million [8]. Valuation - The current price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio of 12 times for 2025, with an expected profit growth of over 15%, indicating an attractive valuation [8][9]. - The report maintains a target price of HKD 46.00, based on a 15 times price-to-earnings ratio for the education services business [8][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Views - The company is expected to see a bottoming out of its performance, with a positive outlook on profit elasticity for the full year [1]. - The core K12 business shows steady revenue growth, and operational profit margins are anticipated to improve post-autumn 2025 due to cost reduction measures [1][3]. - The non-selective business is projected to have revenue growth guidance of 10-13% year-on-year for Q4 FY25, aligning with market expectations [1][2]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 FY25, total revenue was $1.183 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 2%, while revenue excluding selective business was $1.038 billion, reflecting a 21.2% increase [1][2]. - Adjusted operating profit for Q3 was $142 million, with a profit margin of 13.3%, slightly better than previous forecasts [1][2]. - The company expects non-GAAP operating profit margin to improve by approximately 1 percentage point in Q4 FY25 due to a low base effect [3]. Revenue and Profit Forecasts - Revenue forecasts for non-selective business are adjusted to $4.424 billion, $4.819 billion, and $5.538 billion for FY25, FY26, and FY27 respectively [4][10]. - Non-GAAP net profit estimates are revised to $457 million, $550 million, and $654 million for FY25, FY26, and FY27 respectively [4][10]. - The company anticipates a steady increase in revenue and profit margins, with a focus on enhancing management efficiency and optimizing expansion pace [3][4]. Valuation Analysis - The target price is set at $67.25 based on a 20x PE ratio for FY26E, reflecting the company's leading position in the education sector [4][13]. - The report highlights that the current demand for non-academic training remains strong, supporting the company's long-term growth potential [4][10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" [1] Core Insights - The report highlights that the growth rate of the study abroad business has reached a bottom, and cost reduction actions are alleviating pressure on profit margins [6] - The company reported a revenue of $1.183 billion for 3QFY25, a year-on-year decrease of 2%, while non-selection business (education + cultural tourism) achieved revenue of $1.04 billion, a year-on-year increase of 21.2% [4] - The Non-GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company was $113 million, down 14.3% year-on-year, with a Non-GAAP net profit margin of 9.6%, narrowing by 1.4 percentage points year-on-year [4] Summary by Sections Study Abroad Business - The growth of the study abroad business has slowed, with revenue from overseas exam training and consulting reaching $296 million, a year-on-year increase of 11.4%, which is a slowdown of 35.4 percentage points compared to the same period last year [5] - The high-end one-on-one training business is facing challenges due to its premium pricing, and the demand for studying abroad is returning to normal after the rapid release of pent-up demand from the pandemic [5] New Business Growth - New business revenue (K9 quality training + learning machine business) grew by 34.5% year-on-year to $325 million [5] - The company is expanding its service offerings to enhance the resilience of its study abroad business by adjusting class types and increasing youth overseas exam training services [5] Profitability and Financial Projections - The Non-GAAP operating profit margin for non-selection business narrowed by 1.8 percentage points to 13.3% due to the slowdown in the high-margin study abroad business [6] - The report projects Non-GAAP net profits for FY25, FY26, and FY27 to be $454 million, $534 million, and $636 million respectively, with a DCF target price of $74.8 [6][8]

CXO、维生素、电力等板块逆市走强。 今天上午A股市场整体窄幅震荡，电力、CXO、维生素等概念板块走强。 新股方面，今天A股市场有两只新股上市，悉数大幅上涨，其中新股江顺科技盘中涨幅一度超过120%。 港股市场盘中走低，不过仍有不少股票大涨，其中凯莱英港股盘中一度大涨超19%。 A股市场窄幅震荡 今天上午A股市场整体窄幅震荡走低。截至午间收盘，上证指数跌0.1%，深证成指跌0.66%，北证50指数跌2.8%，创业板 指跌0.68%。 主要行业板块和赛道方面，日用化工、煤炭、造纸、农林牧渔等板块涨幅居前。软件服务、互联网、矿物制品、IT设备 等板块跌幅居前。 电力板块走强，华银电力、西昌电力、郴电国际等多股涨停，另有多股大幅上涨。 | 代码 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 ▼ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 600744 | 华银电力 | 3.85 | 0.35 | 10.00% | | 600505 | 西昌电力 | 17.31 | 1.57 | 9.97% | | 600969 | 郴电国际 | 8.07 | 0.73 | 9.95% | | 000601 ...