Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended (Maintain)" [1] Core Insights - The military trade market is significantly influenced by geopolitical factors, with advanced weaponry impacting national military capabilities and political dynamics. The U.S. and its allies dominate global military trade exports, accounting for 64.10% and 78.06% of total exports in the periods 2015-2019 and 2020-2024, respectively [2][34] - The global military trade market is characterized by high concentration, with the top ten exporting countries accounting for 89.70% of total exports from 2015-2019 and 88.60% from 2020-2024. The U.S. and France are the top two exporters in the latter period, with a combined share of 52.60% [2][34] - China's military trade share is expected to increase in the long term, aligning with its manufacturing capabilities and international influence, despite currently holding only 3.9% of the global military trade market in 2024 [2][34] Summary by Sections Military Trade Overview - Military trade, or arms trade, is a unique sector closely tied to geopolitical and military strategies, reflecting national interests and political continuity [12] - The United Nations defines military trade as the transfer of military equipment between countries, which plays a crucial role in regulating international political relations [12] Global Military Trade Landscape - According to SIPRI, global military trade has experienced stable growth, with total trade increasing from 80.82 billion TIV in 1950 to 289.38 billion TIV in 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 1.72% [30] - The military trade market has undergone three significant fluctuations since 1950, with the most recent period (2002-present) showing a recovery in trade volumes due to increased global tensions and military spending [30] Major Military Exporting Countries - The top five military exporting countries from 2015-2019 were the U.S., Russia, France, China, and Germany, with the U.S. maintaining a dominant position [34] - The military trade export figures for the U.S. rose from 503.68 billion TIV in 2015-2019 to 609.49 billion TIV in 2020-2024, marking a 21.01% increase [35] China's Military Trade Situation - China's military trade has seen fluctuations, with exports decreasing from 88.62 billion TIV in 2015-2019 to 83.85 billion TIV in 2020-2024, a decline of 5.38% [35] - The report highlights that China's military trade is expected to grow due to increasing geopolitical conflicts and the country's enhanced military capabilities [2][34]

Core Points - The company, AVIC Helicopter Company Limited, has approved the use of idle raised funds for cash management, with a maximum limit of RMB 2.5 billion [1] - The cash management products will have a maturity of no more than 12 months, and the authorization for cash management is valid for 12 months from the board's approval date [1] - As of the announcement date, all previously invested cash management products have been redeemed, and the principal along with interest has been returned to the designated fund account [1] - The remaining amount of idle raised funds for cash management that has not yet matured is RMB 1.8 billion, and the highest daily balance and usage period have not exceeded the board's authorized limits [1]

中航直升机股份有限公司 关于使用部分闲置募集资金进行现金管理到期赎回的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗 漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 中航直升机股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"或"中直股份"）于2025年6 月6日分别召开第九届董事会第九次会议、第九届监事会第八次会议，审议通过 了《关于公司继续使用暂时闲置募集资金进行现金管理的议案》，同意在确保不 影响募集资金投资计划的前提下，对最高额度不超过人民币25亿元（包含本数） 的闲置募集资金进行现金管理，投资产品的期限不超过12个月，现金管理授权的 有效期自公司董事会审议通过之日起12个月内有效，在上述期限及授权额度范围 内，资金可以滚动使用，具体内容详见公司于2025年6月7日披露的《关于继续使 用暂时闲置募集资金进行现金管理的公告》（公告编号：2025-031）。 证券代码：600038 证券简称：中直股份 公告编号：2025-042 目前，公司部分闲置募集资金现金管理到期赎回，具体内容如下： 2025年9月13日 - 2 - 单位：万元 截至本公告披露日，以上产品已全部赎回，并已将本金及 ...

Macro Strategy - The report highlights the focus on domestic economic policy changes driven by anti-involution and the Fourth Plenary Session [1] Fixed Income - The report discusses why domestic commercial banks are unlikely to shrink their balance sheets, citing factors such as economic slowdown, loose monetary policy, and the government's call for financial services to support the real economy [2] - It notes that while some small and medium-sized banks may consider balance sheet reduction, the overall probability for the industry is low [2] Industry Analysis New Industries - The company reported a revenue of 2.185 billion yuan in H1 2025, a decrease of 1.18% year-on-year, and a net profit of 771 million yuan, down 14.62% [4] - The overseas market showed strong performance with a revenue of 954 million yuan, an increase of 19.62% [5] - Domestic revenue was 1.229 billion yuan, down 12.81%, with a notable decline in reagent business [5] BYD Electronics - The company achieved a revenue of 80.61 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 2.6%, and a net profit of 1.73 billion yuan, up 14% [6] - The new energy vehicle business saw a revenue increase of 60.5% to 12.45 billion yuan, driven by smart cabin and driving products [6] Pinduoduo - The company’s profit exceeded expectations, leading to an adjustment in the Non-GAAP net profit forecast for 2025-2027 [9] Northern Huachuang - The company is benefiting from the domestic semiconductor equipment platform trend, with a focus on expanding its product line through acquisitions [10] Wan Ye Enterprises - The company reported a turnaround in H1 2025, driven by rapid growth in bismuth materials and semiconductor equipment [11] Horizon Robotics - The company achieved a revenue of 1.57 billion yuan in H1 2025, a 68% increase, with significant growth in chip shipments [12] BeiGene - The company’s core product sales are expected to drive revenue growth, with an upward revision of net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 [14] Jiuzhoutong - The company reported a revenue of 81.106 billion yuan in H1 2025, a 5.1% increase, with a net profit of 1.446 billion yuan, up 19.7% [15] Fenzhong Media - The company maintains a steady growth trajectory, with EPS forecasts for 2025-2027 remaining stable [16] High Measurement Co. - The company is entering the humanoid robot market, leveraging its core technology in grinding equipment [17] Tian Nai Technology - The company adjusted its profit forecast for 2025-2027, maintaining a "buy" rating due to the potential of single-wall carbon tubes [18] Hailiang Co. - The company is expected to see significant growth in the U.S. market, with net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 remaining stable [19] Sanofi - The company reported a revenue of 2.264 billion yuan in H1 2025, with strong performance in the overseas market [20] Xue Da Education - The company is positioned as a leading personalized education provider, with stable growth in its training business [22] Blue Sky Gas - The company is committed to high dividend payouts, with a focus on improving cash flow despite lower profits in H1 2025 [23] Haitian Precision - The company is experiencing short-term pressure on earnings but is steadily advancing its capacity and channel development [24] Solidarity Hall - The company is leveraging AI and overseas expansion to enhance its business model and revenue potential [25] Shoulu Hotel - The company is optimizing its hotel operations and expanding its footprint, with profit forecasts for 2025-2027 remaining stable [27] Changhua Group - The company is expected to see continued revenue growth, driven by new product launches and customer acquisition [28] SF Express - The company is entering a growth phase, with profit forecasts for 2025-2027 being adjusted upward [29] Oil and Gas Sector - The company is experiencing rapid growth in oil and gas production, with profit forecasts for 2025-2027 being adjusted upward [30] Alibaba - The company is focusing on cloud business growth and AI investments, with profit forecasts for FY2026-2028 being adjusted [31] Ding Sheng New Materials - The company is experiencing strong growth in battery foil shipments, with profit forecasts for 2025-2027 being adjusted [32] BYD - The company is facing increased competition, leading to adjustments in profit forecasts for 2025-2027 [34] Okai Yi - The company is experiencing steady revenue growth, with profit forecasts for 2025-2026 being adjusted downward [35] Maiwei Biotech - The company maintains its revenue forecasts for 2025-2027, focusing on strategic drug development [36] United Imaging - The company reported a revenue of 6.016 billion yuan in H1 2025, with strong growth in both domestic and overseas markets [37]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate-A" rating for the company [1][8] Core Views - The company reported a significant revenue increase of 25.28% year-on-year for the first half of 2025, reaching 10.241 billion yuan, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 5.12% to 282 million yuan [5][6] - The company is focusing on the low-altitude economy development strategy, enhancing its product offerings and optimizing costs [6][8] Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 10.241 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 25.28% [5] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 282 million yuan, a decrease of 5.12% year-on-year, while the net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses increased by 23.91% to 206 million yuan [5] - The total liabilities decreased by 7.58% to 31.192 billion yuan, and cash and cash equivalents increased by 158.08% to 7.941 billion yuan [5] - The company reported a significant increase in revenue in Q2 2025, achieving 7.865 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 63.80% [6] Cost Optimization - The company has successfully reduced its management expense ratio by 1 percentage point to 4.54%, sales expense ratio by 0.66 percentage points to 0.51%, and financial expense ratio by 0.36 percentage points to -0.38% [6] Future Outlook - The company is committed to enhancing its product lineup and capitalizing on opportunities in the low-altitude economy, with ongoing improvements and testing of new helicopter models [6][8] - EPS forecasts for 2025-2027 are projected at 0.71, 0.85, and 0.99 yuan, with corresponding P/E ratios of 55.8, 47.1, and 40.4 [8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the robust performance of Zhongzhong Co., Ltd. in the first half of 2025, driven by the growth of the low-altitude economy and increased product delivery volume [1][2] - Zhongzhong Co., Ltd. achieved an operating revenue of 10.241 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.28%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 5.12% to 282 million yuan due to rising costs and increased R&D investment [1] - The company's operating costs rose to 9.597 billion yuan, a 34.25% increase year-on-year, indicating pressure from raw material price fluctuations and supply chain costs [1] Group 2 - The product portfolio of Zhongzhong Co., Ltd. includes various types of helicopters and general aircraft, with a significant increase in revenue from aviation products, which accounted for 99.4% of total revenue [2] - The company is focusing on the development of low-altitude economy strategies and has made progress in research and development, including improvements to the AC313A helicopter and ongoing test flights for the AC332 model [3] - Recent market expansion efforts led to new orders for the AC311A helicopter, and successful completion of rescue missions demonstrated the helicopter's performance in challenging environments [3]

Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 10.241 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.28%, while net profit attributable to the parent company was 282 million yuan, a decrease of 5.12% [1] - The main reason for the profit decline was a significant increase in operating costs, which rose by 35.11%, compressing profit margins [1] - The company's total assets as of mid-2025 were 48.454 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.23% from the end of the previous year, primarily due to a 40.17% reduction in cash and cash equivalents [2] Group 2: Business Operations - The company's main business includes helicopter manufacturing, components, and aviation services, with aviation products generating 10.180 billion yuan in revenue, accounting for 99.4% of total revenue, reflecting a slight increase of approximately 0.3 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The increase in helicopter revenue share was driven by a rise in delivery volumes, particularly for the AC series helicopters and new model deliveries [1] - The company signed new orders for 3 AC311A helicopters and completed procurement selection for 11 helicopters, indicating progress in low-altitude economy initiatives [3] Group 3: Competitive Position and Future Outlook - The company's core competitiveness has been strengthened, with successful test flights of the AC313A helicopter and advancements in the C919 large passenger aircraft's composite material technology [3] - The company completed a private placement in July 2024, raising 2.968 billion yuan to enhance helicopter production capacity and fund new model development and drone research [3] - Profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted, with expected net profits of 622 million, 697 million, and 766 million yuan respectively, reflecting a decrease from previous estimates [3]

Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 10.241 billion (up 25.28% year-on-year, completing 33.86% of the annual budget) and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 282 million (down 5.12% year-on-year, completing 46.69% of the annual budget) [1] - For Q2, the company reported revenue of 7.865 billion (up 63.80% year-on-year) and a net profit of 80.32 million (down 51.99% year-on-year) [1] - The overall gross margin decreased by 6.82 percentage points to 6.28% [1] Segment Performance - The Harbin division had total assets of 29.967 billion, generating revenue of 8.093 billion and a net profit of 339 million, with a net profit margin of 4.19% [1] - The Jingdezhen division had total assets of 18.701 billion, generating revenue of 2.072 billion and a net loss of 41.47 million, with a net profit margin of -2.00% [1] Expense Management - Selling expenses for the first half were 52 million (up 4.47% year-on-year), management expenses were 465 million (up 2.63% year-on-year), and financial expenses were -38.53 million (compared to -16.46 million in the same period last year) [1] - R&D expenses were 155 million (down 12.64% year-on-year) [1] - The overall expense ratio decreased by 2.02 percentage points to 4.67% [1] 2025 Financial Forecast - The company expects to achieve revenue of 30.249 billion (up 1.63% year-on-year) and a net profit of 604 million (up 8.66% year-on-year) in 2025, with a projected net profit margin of around 2% [2] Capital Raising and Project Development - The company plans to raise 2.968 billion through a private placement to enhance competitiveness in core business areas, focusing on new helicopter development, drone R&D, and aviation maintenance [2] - As of mid-2025, the progress of cumulative investment reached 12.33%, with the Harbin production capacity enhancement project progressing the fastest at 84% [2] Industry Development - The company is enhancing its low-altitude economy layout by advancing eVTOL R&D and applications [3] - Collaborations with universities and research institutions are established to tackle key technologies in the development of electric vertical takeoff and landing aircraft [3] - The company has received new orders for 3 AC311A helicopters and is progressing with the AC332 system testing to support diverse applications in emergency rescue and high-altitude services [3] Profit Forecast - The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 612 million, 723 million, and 850 million respectively, with corresponding valuations of 54, 46, and 39 times [3]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods - **Model Name**: GAN_GRU **Model Construction Idea**: The GAN_GRU model combines Generative Adversarial Networks (GAN) for processing volume-price time-series features and Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) for encoding time-series features to create a stock selection factor[4][13][41] **Model Construction Process**: 1. **GRU Component**: - Input features include 18 volume-price features such as closing price, opening price, turnover, and turnover rate[14][17][19] - Training data consists of the past 400 days of these features, sampled every 5 trading days, forming a 40x18 matrix to predict cumulative returns over the next 20 trading days[18] - Data preprocessing includes outlier removal and normalization at both time-series and cross-sectional levels[18] - Model architecture: Two GRU layers (128, 128) followed by an MLP (256, 64, 64), with the final output being the predicted return (pRet), which serves as the stock selection factor[22] - Training method: Semi-annual rolling training, with training conducted on June 30 and December 31 each year[18] - Optimization: Adam optimizer, learning rate of 1e-4, IC loss function, early stopping after 10 epochs, and a maximum of 50 training epochs[18] 2. **GAN Component**: - GAN consists of a generator (G) and a discriminator (D)[23] - Generator: Uses LSTM to preserve the time-series nature of the input features, transforming random noise into realistic data samples[33][37] - Loss function: $$ L_{G} = -\mathbb{E}_{z\sim P_{z}(z)}[\log(D(G(z)))] $$ where \( z \) represents random noise, \( G(z) \) is the generated data, and \( D(G(z)) \) is the discriminator's output probability[24][25] - Discriminator: Uses CNN to process the two-dimensional volume-price time-series features, distinguishing between real and generated data[33][37] - Loss function: $$ L_{D} = -\mathbb{E}_{x\sim P_{data}(x)}[\log D(x)] - \mathbb{E}_{z\sim P_{z}(z)}[\log(1-D(G(z)))] $$ where \( x \) is real data, \( D(x) \) is the discriminator's output for real data, and \( D(G(z)) \) is the output for generated data[27][29] - Training: Alternating updates of the generator and discriminator parameters until convergence[30] **Model Evaluation**: The GAN_GRU model effectively captures both time-series and cross-sectional features, leveraging the strengths of GAN and GRU for stock selection[4][13][41] --- Model Backtesting Results - **GAN_GRU Model**: - **IC Mean**: 11.36%[41][42] - **ICIR (Non-Annualized)**: 0.88[42] - **Turnover Rate**: 0.83[42] - **Recent IC**: -2.56%[41][42] - **1-Year IC Mean**: 8.94%[41][42] - **Annualized Return**: 38.09%[42] - **Annualized Volatility**: 23.68%[42] - **IR**: 1.61[42] - **Maximum Drawdown**: 27.29%[42] - **Annualized Excess Return**: 23.52%[41][42] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods - **Factor Name**: GAN_GRU Factor **Factor Construction Idea**: Derived from the GAN_GRU model, this factor encodes volume-price time-series features to predict stock returns[4][13][41] **Factor Construction Process**: - The factor is generated using the output of the GAN_GRU model, which combines GAN-based feature generation and GRU-based time-series encoding[4][13][41] - The factor undergoes industry and market capitalization neutralization, as well as standardization, before being used for testing[22] **Factor Evaluation**: The GAN_GRU factor demonstrates strong predictive power across various industries, with consistent outperformance in recent years[4][13][41] --- Factor Backtesting Results - **GAN_GRU Factor**: - **IC Mean**: 11.36%[41][42] - **ICIR (Non-Annualized)**: 0.88[42] - **Turnover Rate**: 0.83[42] - **Recent IC**: -2.56%[41][42] - **1-Year IC Mean**: 8.94%[41][42] - **Annualized Return**: 38.09%[42] - **Annualized Volatility**: 23.68%[42] - **IR**: 1.61[42] - **Maximum Drawdown**: 27.29%[42] - **Annualized Excess Return**: 23.52%[41][42]

Core Viewpoint - The recent financial report of Zhongzhi Co., Ltd. (600038) indicates a mixed performance with a significant increase in revenue but a decline in net profit, raising concerns about cash flow and accounts receivable management [1][2]. Financial Performance - Total revenue for the first half of 2025 reached 10.241 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.28% compared to 8.174 billion yuan in 2024 [1]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 282 million yuan, down 5.12% from 298.67 million yuan in the previous year [1]. - In Q2 2025, total revenue was 7.865 billion yuan, showing a substantial year-on-year growth of 63.8% [1]. - Q2 net profit attributable to shareholders was 80.32 million yuan, reflecting a significant decline of 51.99% [1]. Profitability Metrics - Gross margin decreased to 6.28%, a drop of 49.91% year-on-year, while net margin fell to 2.31%, down 35.39% [1]. - The total of selling, administrative, and financial expenses was 479 million yuan, accounting for 4.67% of revenue, which is a decrease of 23.8% year-on-year [1]. Cash Flow and Debt - Cash and cash equivalents increased significantly by 158.08% to 7.941 billion yuan [1]. - Accounts receivable rose by 27.08% to 9.065 billion yuan, with accounts receivable to net profit ratio reaching 1630.78% [1][2]. - Interest-bearing debt increased slightly by 3.64% to 6.222 billion yuan [1]. Shareholder Metrics - Earnings per share (EPS) decreased to 0.34 yuan, down 15.34% from 0.41 yuan [1]. - Book value per share increased by 17.46% to 20.92 yuan [1]. - Operating cash flow per share was -9.04 yuan, an improvement of 28.14% year-on-year [1]. Investment Insights - The company's return on invested capital (ROIC) was 3.15%, indicating weak capital returns, with a historical median ROIC of 3.99% over the past decade [1]. - The company relies heavily on research and development for its business performance, necessitating further investigation into the underlying drivers of this approach [1]. Fund Holdings - The largest fund holding Zhongzhi Co., Ltd. is Bosera Military Industry Theme Stock A, with 5.2758 million shares, indicating an increase in holdings [3]. - Other funds have also entered the top ten holdings, reflecting growing interest in the company [3].