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机器学习因子选股月报(2025年9月)-20250831
Southwest Securities· 2025-08-31 04:12
Quantitative Models and Construction Methods - **Model Name**: GAN_GRU **Model Construction Idea**: The GAN_GRU model combines Generative Adversarial Networks (GAN) for processing volume-price time-series features and Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) for encoding time-series features to create a stock selection factor[4][13][41] **Model Construction Process**: 1. **GRU Component**: - Input features include 18 volume-price features such as closing price, opening price, turnover, and turnover rate[14][17][19] - Training data consists of the past 400 days of these features, sampled every 5 trading days, forming a 40x18 matrix to predict cumulative returns over the next 20 trading days[18] - Data preprocessing includes outlier removal and normalization at both time-series and cross-sectional levels[18] - Model architecture: Two GRU layers (128, 128) followed by an MLP (256, 64, 64), with the final output being the predicted return (pRet), which serves as the stock selection factor[22] - Training method: Semi-annual rolling training, with training conducted on June 30 and December 31 each year[18] - Optimization: Adam optimizer, learning rate of 1e-4, IC loss function, early stopping after 10 epochs, and a maximum of 50 training epochs[18] 2. **GAN Component**: - GAN consists of a generator (G) and a discriminator (D)[23] - Generator: Uses LSTM to preserve the time-series nature of the input features, transforming random noise into realistic data samples[33][37] - Loss function: $$ L_{G} = -\mathbb{E}_{z\sim P_{z}(z)}[\log(D(G(z)))] $$ where \( z \) represents random noise, \( G(z) \) is the generated data, and \( D(G(z)) \) is the discriminator's output probability[24][25] - Discriminator: Uses CNN to process the two-dimensional volume-price time-series features, distinguishing between real and generated data[33][37] - Loss function: $$ L_{D} = -\mathbb{E}_{x\sim P_{data}(x)}[\log D(x)] - \mathbb{E}_{z\sim P_{z}(z)}[\log(1-D(G(z)))] $$ where \( x \) is real data, \( D(x) \) is the discriminator's output for real data, and \( D(G(z)) \) is the output for generated data[27][29] - Training: Alternating updates of the generator and discriminator parameters until convergence[30] **Model Evaluation**: The GAN_GRU model effectively captures both time-series and cross-sectional features, leveraging the strengths of GAN and GRU for stock selection[4][13][41] --- Model Backtesting Results - **GAN_GRU Model**: - **IC Mean**: 11.36%[41][42] - **ICIR (Non-Annualized)**: 0.88[42] - **Turnover Rate**: 0.83[42] - **Recent IC**: -2.56%[41][42] - **1-Year IC Mean**: 8.94%[41][42] - **Annualized Return**: 38.09%[42] - **Annualized Volatility**: 23.68%[42] - **IR**: 1.61[42] - **Maximum Drawdown**: 27.29%[42] - **Annualized Excess Return**: 23.52%[41][42] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods - **Factor Name**: GAN_GRU Factor **Factor Construction Idea**: Derived from the GAN_GRU model, this factor encodes volume-price time-series features to predict stock returns[4][13][41] **Factor Construction Process**: - The factor is generated using the output of the GAN_GRU model, which combines GAN-based feature generation and GRU-based time-series encoding[4][13][41] - The factor undergoes industry and market capitalization neutralization, as well as standardization, before being used for testing[22] **Factor Evaluation**: The GAN_GRU factor demonstrates strong predictive power across various industries, with consistent outperformance in recent years[4][13][41] --- Factor Backtesting Results - **GAN_GRU Factor**: - **IC Mean**: 11.36%[41][42] - **ICIR (Non-Annualized)**: 0.88[42] - **Turnover Rate**: 0.83[42] - **Recent IC**: -2.56%[41][42] - **1-Year IC Mean**: 8.94%[41][42] - **Annualized Return**: 38.09%[42] - **Annualized Volatility**: 23.68%[42] - **IR**: 1.61[42] - **Maximum Drawdown**: 27.29%[42] - **Annualized Excess Return**: 23.52%[41][42]
中直股份2025年中报简析:增收不增利,公司应收账款体量较大
Zheng Quan Zhi Xing· 2025-08-30 23:27
Core Viewpoint - The recent financial report of Zhongzhi Co., Ltd. (600038) indicates a mixed performance with a significant increase in revenue but a decline in net profit, raising concerns about cash flow and accounts receivable management [1][2]. Financial Performance - Total revenue for the first half of 2025 reached 10.241 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.28% compared to 8.174 billion yuan in 2024 [1]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 282 million yuan, down 5.12% from 298.67 million yuan in the previous year [1]. - In Q2 2025, total revenue was 7.865 billion yuan, showing a substantial year-on-year growth of 63.8% [1]. - Q2 net profit attributable to shareholders was 80.32 million yuan, reflecting a significant decline of 51.99% [1]. Profitability Metrics - Gross margin decreased to 6.28%, a drop of 49.91% year-on-year, while net margin fell to 2.31%, down 35.39% [1]. - The total of selling, administrative, and financial expenses was 479 million yuan, accounting for 4.67% of revenue, which is a decrease of 23.8% year-on-year [1]. Cash Flow and Debt - Cash and cash equivalents increased significantly by 158.08% to 7.941 billion yuan [1]. - Accounts receivable rose by 27.08% to 9.065 billion yuan, with accounts receivable to net profit ratio reaching 1630.78% [1][2]. - Interest-bearing debt increased slightly by 3.64% to 6.222 billion yuan [1]. Shareholder Metrics - Earnings per share (EPS) decreased to 0.34 yuan, down 15.34% from 0.41 yuan [1]. - Book value per share increased by 17.46% to 20.92 yuan [1]. - Operating cash flow per share was -9.04 yuan, an improvement of 28.14% year-on-year [1]. Investment Insights - The company's return on invested capital (ROIC) was 3.15%, indicating weak capital returns, with a historical median ROIC of 3.99% over the past decade [1]. - The company relies heavily on research and development for its business performance, necessitating further investigation into the underlying drivers of this approach [1]. Fund Holdings - The largest fund holding Zhongzhi Co., Ltd. is Bosera Military Industry Theme Stock A, with 5.2758 million shares, indicating an increase in holdings [3]. - Other funds have also entered the top ten holdings, reflecting growing interest in the company [3].
中航直升机股份有限公司2025年半年度报告摘要
Core Viewpoint - The company held its ninth board meeting and ninth supervisory board meeting on August 28, 2025, to review and approve various proposals, including the 2025 semi-annual report and changes to the company's governance structure [2][9][14]. Group 1: Company Overview - The company is named AVIC Helicopter Company Limited, with its stock code being 600038 and abbreviated as "Zhongzhi Shares" [1]. - The company has confirmed that the content of the announcements does not contain any false records, misleading statements, or major omissions, and the board members are responsible for the accuracy and completeness of the information [2][9]. Group 2: Financial Reports - The board approved the 2025 semi-annual report and its summary, confirming that the report reflects the company's financial status and operational results accurately and completely [4][11]. - The board also approved a special report on the management and actual use of raised funds for the first half of 2025 [5][11]. Group 3: Governance Changes - The company plans to change its registered address from "No. 34, Central Development Zone, Nangang District, Harbin, Heilongjiang Province" to "No. 102, Building 91, Yuhui Street, Pingfang District, Harbin, Heilongjiang Province" [15][17]. - The company will abolish the supervisory board, transferring its responsibilities to the audit committee of the board, in accordance with the new Company Law effective from July 1, 2024 [16][17]. - Amendments to the company's articles of association were approved, including the renaming of the strategic committee to "Strategic and Sustainable Development (ESG) Committee" and adjustments to the powers of the shareholders' meeting and board of directors [17].
中直股份:第九届董事会第十次会议决议公告
Zheng Quan Ri Bao· 2025-08-29 11:52
Group 1 - The company announced the approval of multiple proposals during the 10th meeting of the 9th Board of Directors, including the 2025 semi-annual report and its summary [2]
中直股份:第九届监事会第九次会议决议公告
Zheng Quan Ri Bao· 2025-08-29 11:52
Core Viewpoint - The company announced the approval of several proposals, including the 2025 semi-annual report and its summary, during the ninth meeting of the ninth supervisory board [2] Group 1 - The company held its ninth meeting of the ninth supervisory board on August 29 [2] - The meeting resulted in the approval of the proposal regarding the 2025 semi-annual report and its summary [2]
中直股份: 中航直升机股份有限公司第九届监事会第九次会议决议公告
Zheng Quan Zhi Xing· 2025-08-29 09:25
Core Viewpoint - The announcement details the resolutions passed during the ninth meeting of the ninth supervisory board of AVIC Helicopter Company, confirming the approval of the 2025 semi-annual report and related assessments [1][2]. Group 1: Meeting Details - The ninth supervisory board meeting was held on August 28, 2025, in Harbin, with all three supervisors present [1]. - The meeting was chaired by the supervisory board chairperson, Kang Yinglei, and complied with legal and regulatory requirements [1]. Group 2: Resolutions Passed - The board approved the 2025 semi-annual report and its summary, affirming that the report accurately reflects the company's financial status and operational results [1]. - The board also approved the risk assessment report regarding related party loans with AVIC Group Finance Co., Ltd. [2]. - A special report on the management and actual use of raised funds was also approved, with details disclosed in the semi-annual report [2]. - A proposal to abolish the supervisory meeting rules and amend the company’s articles of association was passed, pending approval from the shareholders' meeting [2].
中直股份: 中航直升机股份有限公司2025年第二次临时股东大会会议资料
Zheng Quan Zhi Xing· 2025-08-29 09:25
中航直升机股份有限公司 2025 年第二次临时股东大会资料 中航直升机股份有限公司 会议资料 中航直升机股份有限公司 2025 年第二次临时股东大会资料 中航直升机股份有限公司 北京市朝阳区安定门外小关东里 14 号,中航发展大厦 A 中航直升机股份有限公司 2025 年第二次临时股东大会资料 为保障中航直升机股份有限公司全体股东的合法权益, 维护股东大会的正常秩序,保证股东大会的议事效率,确保 股东大会如期、顺利召开,根据《公司法》《公司章程》及 中国证监会的有关规定,特制定本次股东大会会议须知: 一、股东大会设会务组,具体负责大会召开等有关事宜。 中航直升机股份有限公司 2025 年第二次临时股东大会资料 回答。 四、参加现场会议的股东投票需注意的事项如下: 本次股东大会现场投票采取记名投票方式逐项进行表 决,股东按其持有本公司的每一份股份享有一份表决权,表 决票须写明投票人姓名及持有或代表股数,否则投票无效。 特请各位股东用钢笔或碳素笔准确填写,填写表决票时,同 一、会议时间 二、会议地点 座 11 层会议室 三、会议会序 (一)介绍股东大会参会情况 (二)宣读并审议以下议案: 规则》的议案 则》的议案 ...
中直股份: 中航直升机股份有限公司关于召开2025年第二次临时股东大会的通知
Zheng Quan Zhi Xing· 2025-08-29 09:25
Group 1 - The company, AVIC Helicopter Company, will hold its second extraordinary general meeting of shareholders on September 22, 2025, at 9:30 AM in Beijing [1][3] - The voting will be conducted through both on-site and online methods, utilizing the Shanghai Stock Exchange's network voting system [3][4] - Shareholders must register for the meeting between September 19, 2025, and September 19, 2025, and can delegate their voting rights to a representative [5][6] Group 2 - The meeting will review several non-cumulative voting proposals that have already been approved by the company's board and supervisory committee [2][3] - Shareholders must be registered by the close of trading on September 17, 2025, to be eligible to attend the meeting [4][5] - The company will provide contact information for inquiries related to the meeting, including a designated contact person and email address [6]
中直股份(600038.SH):上半年净利润2.82亿元 同比下降5.12%
Ge Long Hui A P P· 2025-08-29 09:25
Core Viewpoint - The company reported a year-on-year increase in revenue but a decline in net profit for the first half of the year [1] Financial Performance - The company achieved operating revenue of 10.241 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 25.28% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company was 282 million yuan, showing a year-on-year decrease of 5.12% [1]
中直股份(600038) - 中航直升机股份有限公司关于召开2025年半年度业绩说明会的公告
2025-08-29 09:02
证券代码:600038 证券简称:中直股份 公告编号:2025-040 中航直升机股份有限公司 关于召开 2025 年半年度业绩说明会的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏,并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担个别及连带责任。 重要内容提示: 会议召开时间:2025 年 9 月 26 日(星期五)下午 15:00-16:00 会议召开地点:上海证券交易所上证路演中心(网址: http://roadshow.sseinfo.com/) 会议召开方式:网络文字互动 投资者可于 2025 年 9 月 18 日(星期四)至 9 月 25 日(星期四) 16:00 前登录上证路演中心网站首页点击"提问预征集"栏目或通过 公司邮箱 avicopter@avic.com 进行提问。公司将在说明会上对投资 者普遍关注的问题进行回答。 中航直升机股份有限公司于 2025 年 8 月 30 日发布公司 2025 年 半年度报告,为便于广大投资者更全面深入地了解公司 2025 年半年 度经营成果、财务状况,公司计划于 2025 年 9 月 26 日下午 15:00-16:00 举 ...