证券研究报告·公司点评报告·商用车 宇通客车（600066） 受交付节奏影响 7 月销量增速回落，以旧换 新政策加码看好 24H2 销量向上 2024 年 08 月 04 日 买入（维持） | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------------|--------|----------|----------|----------|----------| | 盈利预测与估值 [Table_EPS] | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 21799 | 27042 | 34733 | 41447 | 49941 | | 同比（%） | (6.17) | 24.05 | 28.44 | 19.33 | 20.49 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 759.14 | 1,817.08 | 3,314.52 | 4,106.93 | 4,956.33 | | 同比（%） | 23.68 | 139.36 | 82.41 | 23.91 | 20.68 | | EPS- ...

证券研究报告 非金融公司 | 公司总评 | 宇通客车（600000） 浅拳致７月销量承压，８月有望环比向 上 诗条必闻读核含本页的支委声明 2024年08月04日 报告 | 报告委总 2024 予 8 月 2 日，公司复布 7 月产领技报，7 月公司失现李丰领奖 3355 纳，同比-8. 7%，环 比-29.3%: 1-7 月李丰玉计简圣 2.4 万辆，网比+27.1%。新能涨公文车以旧换新补贴改革落 地，有望是亲栽动的旁，金か泽外旁亲甚至，希好公司显利向上，分如比例弄视升。 | 分析师及联系人 态会 陈希竹 SAC: $0590523110004 SAC: $0590523100009 请券必闻读核查未真的支卖声明 1 / 5 非全級公司总经 20244,08,1104,81 字通客车 (600066) 淡季致７月销量承压，８月有望环比向上 达汽车/ 奇 风 车ओ 买入（贷村）经济评选： स था ी21. 68 元 是 本 數 地 总裁本/演唱戰本 (百方記) 2, 213, 94/2, 213, 94 选词 A 显 李佳 (百方无) 47, 998. 20 年氣冲突占 以 6. 57 天戶 外環中 (1 ...

本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 证券代码：600066 证券简称：宇通客车 编号：临2024-034 宇通客车股份有限公司 2024 年 7 月份产销数据快报 宇通客车股份有限公司2024年7月份产销数据快报如下： 注：本表为销售快报数据，最终数据以公司定期报告数据为 准。 特此公告。 宇通客车股份有限公司董事会 二零二四年八月二日 1 单位：辆 产 品 2024 年 7 月份 去年同期 单月数量 同比变动 本年 累计 去年同期 累计 累计数量 同比变动 生产量 2,600 3,778 -31.18% 23,860 19,542 22.10% 其中：大型 1,322 2,029 -34.84% 13,990 10,291 35.94% 中型 853 1,286 -33.67% 7,200 6,595 9.17% 轻型 425 463 -8.21% 2,670 2,656 0.53% 销售量 3,355 3,675 -8.71% 23,910 18,809 27.12% 其中：大型 1,993 2,084 -4. ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of between 1.55 billion to 1.79 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 230% to 280%. The net profit excluding non-recurring items is projected to be between 1.32 billion to 1.52 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 300% to 360% [4] - The company sold 4,743 buses in June, a slight increase of 0.36% year-on-year, with a cumulative increase of 36% in sales for the first half of the year. Large bus sales in June were 2,728 units, up approximately 10% year-on-year, while medium bus sales were 1,433 units, down about 18% year-on-year [4] - The company leads the industry in bus exports, with 6,500 units exported in the first half of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 58.27%, capturing a significant market share [4] - The company has made significant strides in autonomous driving and vehicle-road collaboration, with its autonomous bus products operating safely for over five years and covering more than 13 million kilometers [4] Financial Summary - The company’s revenue is projected to be 33.14 billion yuan in 2024, with net profits of 3.01 billion yuan, and earnings per share (EPS) of 1.36 yuan. The expected revenue for 2025 and 2026 is 39.04 billion yuan and 46.09 billion yuan, with net profits of 3.66 billion yuan and 4.41 billion yuan, respectively [5][6] - The company’s gross margin is expected to improve slightly from 25.6% in 2023 to 26.1% in 2026, indicating a stable profitability outlook [8] - The company’s return on equity is projected to increase from 13.1% in 2023 to 19.3% in 2026, reflecting improved operational efficiency [8] Valuation - The company is expected to trade at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 16, 13, and 11 times for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively. The reasonable value range for the stock is estimated to be between 28.57 and 31.29 yuan based on a P/E ratio of 21-23 times [5][6]

本次电话会议仅面向招商证券的专业投资机构客户或受邀客户会议嘉宾发言内容仅代表其个人观点所有信息或观点不构成投资建议未经招商证券事先书面许可任何机构或个人严禁录音制作纪要传发转载传播复制编辑修改等涉嫌违反上述情形的我们将保留一切法律权利感谢您的理解和支持谢谢 主持人可以讲话 会议秘书可以听到吗可以听到的 现在可以开始发言了各位投资者大家上午好我是张双中签的汽车研究员杨仙雨欢迎大家今天参加宇通各州海外业务专场交流电话会议那么今天我们有幸邀请到了公司董事会秘书余莉总海外销售负责人王峰总 公司的正代姚总公司投资者关系张总那么从2023年到现在为止的话与同客车的出口不断创新高也取得了很好的业绩和股价表现那么今天各位领导专场跟大家进行一个沟通那于总我先把时间交给您 好的 各位投资人 都是老朋友了很多我先给大家简单汇报一两句吧因为最近 尤其是昨天股价还是有一个比较大幅度的下跌这个在我们历史上的股价似乎不是那么的多我也问了好几个基因经理 还有几个朋友说可能是因为出口业务大家因为特朗普的讲话 美国的长臂管辖这些原因导致的 昨天我也其实也开了好几场电话会议跟相关投资人就觉得今天有必要请我们海外营销王总一起给大家聊一聊究竟这些东西 ...

Summary of Conference Call Company/Industry Involved - The conference call pertains to the automotive industry, specifically focusing on Animal Automotive and its adjustments in the market. Core Points and Arguments - The call welcomed participants and indicated that all advisors were in a balanced state, suggesting a stable environment for discussion [1] - The meeting was specifically aimed at institutional investors or invited clients, highlighting the exclusivity of the information shared [1] - The content presented by third-party experts reflects their personal opinions, indicating that the insights may not represent the official stance of Animal Automotive [1] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The call emphasized the importance of transparency and the nature of the discussion, which is crucial for maintaining trust with investors [1]

Summary of Conference Call Company/Industry Involved - The conference call is hosted by China Merchants Securities, targeting professional investment institutions and invited clients. Core Points and Arguments - The content of the call represents personal opinions and does not constitute investment advice [1] - Any unauthorized recording, distribution, or modification of the information shared during the call is prohibited [1] - China Merchants Securities reserves all legal rights in case of violations [1] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The call emphasizes the importance of understanding that the views expressed are personal and should not be taken as formal investment recommendations [1]

2024 年 07 月 16 日 公司点评 买入/维持 宇通客车(600066) 目标价: 昨收盘:23.96 中国宇通,出海全球 ◼ 走势比较 (20%) 6% 32% 58% 84% 110% 23/7/1723/9/2723/12/824/2/1824/4/3024/7/11 宇通客车 沪深300 ◼ 股票数据 总股本/流通(亿股) 22.14/22.14 总市值/流通(亿元) 530.46/530.46 12 个月内最高/最低价 (元) 30.05/12.05 相关研究报告 事件:近日,宇通客车发布 2024 年上半年业绩预告:公司上半年预 计归母净利润 15.5-17.9 亿元,同比增加 230%-280%;预计扣非归母净利 润 13.2-15.2 亿元,同比增加 300%-360%。公司 2 季度预计归母净利润 8.9-11.3 亿元,同比增长 155%-224%,环比增长 36-72%;业绩超市场预 期。 宇通销量大增,出口量利齐升。公司 6 月份客车销售 4743 台,同比 增长 0.36%,上半年累计销量 20,555 台,同比增长 35.82%。二季度业绩 改善,稳定增长,由于新能源车出口 ...

Summary of Yutong Bus Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Yutong Bus - **Industry**: New Energy Vehicles (NEV) and Bus Manufacturing Key Points and Arguments Growth Potential - Yutong Bus demonstrates strong growth potential globally, particularly in export business, with expectations for single-vehicle profitability and market share to increase by 2026 due to rising domestic and export sales [2][3][6] Single-Vehicle Profitability - The analysis framework for single-vehicle profitability focuses on average selling price and net profit margin, influenced by sales structure of NEVs and export vehicles, sales scale, gross margin, and expense ratio [4][11] - The company aims to optimize product structure and improve net profit margin to enhance single-vehicle profitability [2][4] Historical Performance and Market Dynamics - Yutong experienced three market phases: 1. **2014-2016**: Benefited from NEV promotion and government subsidies, leading to significant sales and profit growth. 2. **2017-2019**: Faced challenges due to declining subsidies and market demand, resulting in reduced sales and profitability. 3. **2020-2021**: Encountered difficulties due to COVID-19, leading to a decline in overall sales and profitability, including a loss in 2020 [5][12] Recovery and Future Outlook - Post-2022, Yutong's export business significantly grew, aiding in product structure adjustment and profitability recovery, with expectations for double-digit growth in 2023 [6][13] - By 2026, Yutong anticipates achieving a total sales volume of 50,000 units, with single-vehicle profitability reaching approximately 89,000 yuan [7][14] Export Business and Market Position - Yutong's export business is expected to continue growing, with an anticipated export share of over 30% by 2026, contributing to overall sales and profitability [14][15] - The company benefits from a strong Chinese supply chain and established overseas channels, positioning it favorably against competitors [8][17] Financial Projections and Market Valuation - Yutong's market capitalization is projected to reach between 670 billion to 710 billion yuan, with potential for higher valuations based on performance [18][19] - The company is expected to maintain a stable dividend policy, with annual dividends exceeding 4 billion yuan and a payout ratio over 30% [18][19] Risks and Competitive Landscape - Despite anticipated growth, Yutong acknowledges potential risks from increasing competition in overseas markets but remains optimistic about maintaining stable profitability [17][19] Additional Important Content - The conference emphasized the importance of understanding the underlying factors driving single-vehicle profitability and the need for accurate net profit adjustments due to past impairments and government subsidies [11][12] - The call served as a platform for discussing Yutong's strategic adjustments in response to market changes and the evolving landscape of the NEV industry [9][10]

Summary of Conference Call Company/Industry Involved - The conference call is associated with Guohai Securities, focusing on investment suitability management for clients. Core Points and Arguments - The content of the conference call is intended solely for clients who meet Guohai Securities' investment suitability management requirements and invited clients [1] - Guohai Securities disclaims any responsibility for investment decisions made by participants based on the content of the call, emphasizing that it does not constitute investment advice [1] - The call serves as a relay of selected viewpoints from Guohai Securities' published research report, reflecting the judgment of the research team on the day the full report was released [1] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The conference call is not a substitute for the complete research report, and participants are encouraged to refer to the full document for comprehensive insights [1]