Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Yutong Bus [8] Core Views - The company's fundamentals are improving, with Q2 2024 earnings exceeding expectations, projecting a net profit of 1.55-1.79 billion yuan for H1 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 230%-280% [2] - The industry is experiencing high growth in sales driven by both export and domestic demand, with wholesale sales of large and medium buses increasing by 50.3% year-on-year from January to May 2024 [3] - The sales structure is continuously optimizing, with significant growth in export sales contributing to the company's performance, particularly in the high-margin new energy bus segment [4] - The company has maintained strong cash flow over the long term, supporting a high dividend policy, with dividends increasing from 1.1 billion yuan in 2017 to 3.3 billion yuan in 2023 [5] Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 34.36 billion, 40.93 billion, and 44.64 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 27.1%, 19.1%, and 9.1% respectively [6] - Expected net profits for the same period are 3.47 billion, 4.28 billion, and 4.86 billion yuan, with growth rates of 90.8%, 23.5%, and 13.5% respectively [6] - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 1.57, 1.93, and 2.19 yuan per share for 2024, 2025, and 2026 [6]

好的各位所有人大家好我是德国汽车团体学员孙仁浩那么今天我们也是照旧对宇通的昨天的一个业绩预告进行一个解读吧那么解读之前先开始重申我们团队的整体观点我们在这个时间点包括看到整个下半年的话还是去继续强推宇通客车而且首推宇通客车 首先第一点 我们觉得今年的业余权利性应该是最值得大家关注的一个点然后宇通作为一个周期反转的标的 我们觉得周期才刚刚开始而且宇通的业绩 我们是相对于觉得有一定的可预测性源自于它的每月的月度的销量是可以跟踪的 那么同时确实宇通也进入到一个利润快速释放的拐点我们觉得有几个比较明显的特征一方面是宇通作为一个制造业它能兼具分红它是一定要求它的产能是不需要额外投件的因为它的产能都是在上一轮投入的然后第二点宇通在目前的看到它23年的管理费用在逐年下降宇通正式的进入到一个快速的规模效应带来利润释放的一个阶段 那么第三点宇通管理和层面对于分红来说也是比较高的一个诉求那么根据现在的一个市场风格我们觉得宇通是一个兼具着成长和分红的一个比较稀缺的一个资产那么对于宇通的业绩的话我觉得 大家也看的比较清楚了根据这个业绩预报的周数值来看二季度的业绩大概是实现了规模将近10个亿10.1个亿那么扣非后的规模是8.5个亿左右 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company expects net profit attributable to shareholders for the first half of 2024 to be between 1.55 billion and 1.79 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 230% to 280% [2] - The net profit for the second quarter is projected to be around 1.01 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 190% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 54% [2] - The single vehicle net profit for the second quarter reached 79,000 yuan, a significant year-on-year increase of 141% [6] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - In June, the company sold 4,743 vehicles, a slight increase from 4,726 vehicles in the same period last year, with a month-on-month growth of 6% [3] - The export volume in June was 1,580 units, showing a year-on-year increase of 42% and a month-on-month increase of 14% [4] - The company achieved a total sales volume of 12,280 units in the second quarter, a year-on-year increase of 20% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 66% [5] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company’s export of new energy vehicles in June was 240 units, a year-on-year increase of 35% [4] - The market share of Chinese large and medium buses in overseas markets has increased from 13% in 2017 to approximately 19% in 2023 [15] - The export volume of new energy buses from China reached 8,000 units in 2022, representing a year-on-year growth of 24% [16] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to maintain a growth trajectory of over 20% annually, targeting a long-term profit level of 5 billion yuan by 2026 [8] - The company is focusing on high-end models and increasing the proportion of new energy vehicles in its product lineup [11] - The company is positioned as a leading player in the industry, benefiting from the continuous growth of exports and structural optimization driven by new energy vehicles [35] Management Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company’s ability to maintain upward momentum in sales and profitability, driven by strong domestic demand and export growth [11] - The management noted that the domestic market is recovering, particularly in the tourism sector, which is expected to boost demand for buses [29] - The company anticipates a significant recovery in domestic bus demand due to ongoing government support for electric vehicle adoption [32] Other Important Information - The company has maintained a high dividend payout ratio, with a total dividend distribution of 33.2 billion yuan since its listing, significantly exceeding the total capital raised [34] - The company’s cash flow management has been effective, with cash reserves reaching 6.4 billion yuan and free cash flow at 2.05 billion yuan [33] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is the outlook for the company's export business? - Management indicated that the export business is expected to continue its strong growth trajectory, with significant orders already in place for the upcoming months [12] Question: How does the company plan to address domestic market challenges? - The company is focusing on new energy vehicle sales and leveraging government policies to stimulate demand in the domestic market [32] Question: What are the expectations for future profitability? - Management remains optimistic about achieving a profit target of 3.2 billion yuan this year, with potential for further growth in subsequent years [8]

好的各位所有人大家好我是德国汽车团体学员孙仁浩那么今天我们也是照旧对宇通的昨天的一个业绩预告进行一个解读吧那么解读之前先开始重申我们团队的整体观点我们在这个时间点包括看到整个下半年的话还是去继续强推宇通客车而且首推宇通客车 首先第一点 我们觉得今年的业余权利性应该是最值得大家关注的一个点然后宇通作为一个周期反转的标的 我们觉得周期才刚刚开始而且宇通的业绩 我们是相对于觉得有一定的可预测性源自于它的每月的月度的销量是可以跟踪的 那么同时确实宇通也进入到一个利润快速释放的拐点我们觉得有几个比较明显的特征一方面是宇通作为一个制造业它能兼具分红它是一定要求它的产能是不需要额外投件的因为它的产能都是在上一轮投入的然后第二点宇通在目前的看到它23年的管理费用在逐年下降宇通正式的进入到一个快速的规模效应带来利润释放的一个阶段 那么第三点宇通管理和层面对于分红来说也是比较高的一个诉求那么根据现在的一个市场风格我们觉得宇通是一个兼具着成长和分红的一个比较稀缺的一个资产那么对于宇通的业绩的话我觉得 大家也看的比较清楚了根据这个业绩预报的周数值来看二季度的业绩大概是实现了规模将近10个亿10.1个亿那么扣非后的规模是8.5个亿左右 ...

Summary of Conference Call Company and Industry - The discussion revolves around Yutong Bus, a prominent player in the automotive industry, specifically in the bus manufacturing sector [1]. Core Points and Arguments - The team maintains a strong recommendation for Yutong Bus, emphasizing continued support for the company in the second half of the year [1]. - The overall viewpoint is to prioritize Yutong Bus as a top investment choice within the industry [1]. Other Important Content - The call indicates a positive outlook for Yutong Bus's performance, suggesting confidence in its growth potential [1].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Yutong Bus is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.55 to 1.79 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 230% to 280% [3] - The strong performance in Q2 2024 is attributed to significant export growth and economies of scale, with a projected net profit of 660 million yuan for Q2, up 190% year-on-year [3] - Yutong is recognized as a rare asset with strong export characteristics, high growth, and high dividend features, with expectations for continued high growth in bus exports [3] Financial Forecasts and Valuation - Revenue forecasts for 2024 to 2026 are set at 34.73 billion yuan, 41.45 billion yuan, and 49.94 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 28%, 19%, and 20% [4] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 to 2026 is adjusted to 3.31 billion yuan, 4.11 billion yuan, and 4.96 billion yuan, with corresponding EPS of 1.50, 1.86, and 2.24 yuan [4] - The P/E ratios for the same periods are projected at 17, 14, and 11 times [4] Market Data - The closing price of Yutong Bus is 25.40 yuan, with a market capitalization of approximately 56.23 billion yuan [6] - The stock has a price-to-book ratio of 3.86 [6] Basic Data - The company's net asset per share is 6.57 yuan, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 54.25% [7] - The total share capital is approximately 2.21 billion shares [7]

宇通客车 20240709_原文 2024年07月10日 11:21 发言人 00:03 各位投资人，大家下午好，我是博联汽车的陈思竹。今天下午的话，我将和我的同事一块儿跟 跟大家跟大家去汇报一下我们最新出的关于通客车的这样的一些深度。其实大家也能看到，宇 通从二三年以来，整个股价的表现，包括公司业绩的表现，其实是非常不错的。我们其实想在 从这样的一篇报告，我们不光从公司的一个基本面出发，我们可能更多的还是想说从这个公司 的一个定价的一个角度去看，究竟如何给这家公司定价。因为我们其实确实会发现，除了他的 自身的成长性之外的话，其实我们能够从这个是公司身上，其实是能看到它的一个非常稀缺的 一个特征的。我这边的话可能先给大家去做一下前期的一些回顾。 发言人 01:02 首先的话其实我们能够看到，因为随着整个客车行业的销量的恢复，其实重点还是来自于出口 这边的一个超预期。其实国内的话在去年其实依然是在下滑的。但是我们看到宇通大的无论是 收入端还是利润端，在二三年表现都非常都还是非常不错的。而且尤其是盈利端，它的展现了 一个非常强的一个利润的弹性。我们觉得这个其实重点来说，确实是由它的出口来带动的。 发言人 01:3 ...

宇通客车(600066.SH)系列点评一 24Q2 业绩超预期 客车龙头走向世界 2024 年 07 月 10 日 ➢ 事件概述:公司披露 2024 年半年度业绩预增公告:公司 2024H1 预计实现 归母净利润 15.5~17.9 亿元,同比+230%~280%;预计实现扣非归母净利润 13.2~15.2 亿元,同比+300%~360%。 ➢ 2024Q2 业绩同比高增 市场恢复带动盈利弹性释放。按照公司业绩预告中 值计算,公司 2024Q2 单季度预计归母净利润 10.1 亿元,同比+189.55%,环 比+54.16%;预计实现扣非归母净利润 8.5 亿元,同比+199.57%,环比 +48.71%。公司 2024Q2 业绩同环比高增,主要受益于销量提升,公司 2024H1 累计销售客车 20,555 辆,同比+35.8%;公司出口销量也实现大幅增长,出口 业务占比提高,盈利能力改善。展望 2024Q3,随着出口高景气态势持续,公司 业绩有望继续放量。 ➢ 聚焦客车行业 国内龙头走向世界。公司集客车产品研发、制造与销售为一 体,产品覆盖公交、客运、旅游、团体、校车以及专用出行等多个细分市场。公 司专注于 ...

证券研究报告 | 2024年07月10日 宇通客车(600066.SH) 优于大市 出口与内销共振,净利润持续攀升 海内外共振,宇通 2024 上半年实现利润 15.5-17.9 亿元。宇通客车发布业 绩预告,预计 24H1 实现归母净利润 15.5-17.9 亿元,同比增加 230%-280%, 扣非 13.2-15.2 亿元,同比增加 300%-360%,业绩表现亮眼。24H1 公司累计 销售客车 20555 辆,同比增长 35.82%,主要得益于 1)出口:公司出口销量 实现大幅增长且出口业务占比提高,销量结构向好,业绩贡献增加;2)内 销:旅游客运市场需求持续恢复,公司国内销量实现增长。 控本、中高端化与规模效应持续,单二季度净利润中值 10 亿元。拆季度来 看,预计 Q2 归母利润为 8.9-11.3 亿元,对应中值 10.13 亿元(23Q2 为 3.5 亿元,24Q1 为 6.6 亿元),24Q2 扣非利润 7.5-9.5 亿元,对应中值 8.5 亿 元(23Q2 为 2.8 亿元,24Q1 为 5.7 亿元)。整体出口来看,24 年 1-5 月宇 通客车出口 4921 辆,同比+64.2%,中 ...

大家好 欢迎参加动物汽车与通客车24Q2业绩预告解读及重点推荐会议目前所有参会者均处于静音状态下面开始播报声明 声明播报完毕后主讲人可以直接开始发言 谢谢动物证券研究所提醒您本次电话会议即面向机构投资者或受邀客户第三方专家发言内容仅代表其个人观点 所有信息或所表述的意见均不构成对具体证券在具体价位具体时点具体市场表现的判断或投资建议未经合法授权严禁录音转发及相关解读涉嫌违反上述情形的我们将保留追究法律责任的权利感谢您给予的理解和配合谢谢 哎好的呃各位作者大家好我是德无汽车团队学员孙人浩那么呃今天我们也是呃照旧呃对宇通的昨天的一个业绩预告进行一个解读吧 那么解读之前先开始重申我们团队的整体观点我们在这个时间点包括看到整个下半年的话还是去继续强推宇通客车而且首推宇通客车首先第一点我们觉得今年的业余权利性应该是最值得大家关注的一个点然后宇通作为一个周期反转的标的我们觉得周期才刚刚开始 而且宇通的业绩我们是相对于觉得有一定的可预测性源自于它的每月的月度的销量是可以跟踪的那么同时确实宇通也进入到一个利润快速释放的拐点我们觉得有几个比较明显的特征一方面是宇通作为一个制造业它能兼具分红它是一定要求它的产能是不需要额外投建的 ...