Summary of Conference Call Records Company Overview - The conference call primarily discusses Yutong Bus, a company in the bus manufacturing industry Key Points and Arguments 1. **Earnings Guidance and Dividend Expectations** The company’s earnings guidance is expected to be clarified after the annual report and the important shareholder meeting in Indonesia. The dividend policy will also be addressed post-annual report [1] 2. **January Sales Performance** In January, Yutong's total sales were 2,500 units, representing a year-on-year decline of 9% and a month-on-month decline of 70% [2] 3. **Sales Decline Explanation** The decline in sales can be attributed to the holiday season, as production was limited to about half a month due to the Spring Festival. Last January did not have the same holiday impact, leading to a high base effect [3] 4. **Export Data** Exports in January totaled 440 units, down from 1,200 units in January of the previous year and 2,600 units in December. The decrease is linked to production and delivery schedules [3] 5. **Domestic Sales Growth** Domestic sales in January reached 2,100 units, up from 1,600 units in the same month last year, indicating a positive trend in domestic demand [3] 6. **Seasonality of Sales** The first quarter is typically a slow season for the bus industry due to holidays and lack of procurement for tourism vehicles. This seasonal trend is expected to continue into February [4] 7. **Production Capacity and Demand** Yutong has demonstrated strong internal demand, managing to increase production through overtime work when necessary. The company is expected to maintain robust sales performance [5] 8. **Profit Forecasts** The profit forecast for 2024 has been raised to between 3.9 billion to 4 billion CNY, with expectations for 4.5 billion CNY in 2025. This reflects confidence in the company’s performance amid market conditions [5] 9. **Market Valuation and Stock Performance** The stock price has experienced fluctuations due to industry trends and production factors, but the long-term outlook remains positive. The company is expected to achieve a market valuation of 600 to 800 billion CNY, with a potential upside of around 30% [6][7] 10. **Investment Cycle Recommendation** A longer investment cycle is recommended for Yutong, with a positive outlook for the first half of the year. The stock is projected to reach a valuation of 20 times the annual earnings [7] Other Important Insights - The discussion emphasizes the importance of understanding the cyclical nature of the bus industry and the impact of seasonal factors on sales performance. The company’s ability to adapt to these factors is crucial for maintaining growth and investor confidence [4][5]

证券代码：600066 证券简称：宇通客车 编号：临2025-005 宇通客车股份有限公司 2025 年 1 月份产销数据快报 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 单位：辆 产 品 2025 年 1 月份 去年同期 单月数量 同比变动 本年 累计 去年同期 累计 累计数量 同比变动 生产量 2,560 2,997 -14.58% 2,560 2,997 -14.58% 其中：大型 1,175 1,953 -39.84% 1,175 1,953 -39.84% 中型 783 779 0.51% 783 779 0.51% 轻型 602 265 127.17% 602 265 127.17% 销售量 2,550 2,797 -8.83% 2,550 2,797 -8.83% 其中：大型 1,403 1,773 -20.87% 1,403 1,773 -20.87% 中型 631 728 -13.32% 631 728 -13.32% 轻型 516 296 74.32% 516 296 74.32% 注：本表为销售快报数 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Yutong Bus [3][5]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.82 billion to 4.27 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 110% to 135% [1]. - The domestic demand for buses is recovering, and the company benefits from the "Two New" policy, which increases subsidies for new energy buses [1]. - The overseas market shows significant potential, with a notable increase in exports, particularly in the new energy segment [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, Yutong Bus is projected to sell 46,900 buses, a year-on-year increase of 28.5%, with domestic and export sales growing by 24.9% and 37.7% respectively [2]. - The expected revenue for 2024 is 37.064 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 37.1% [4]. - The net profit for 2024 is forecasted at 3.971 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 118.5% year-on-year [4]. Market Dynamics - The domestic market for buses is expected to benefit from the recovery in tourism and the replacement of old vehicles [2]. - The overseas bus market demand exceeded 220,000 units in 2023, with significant growth in regions such as the CIS, Middle East, Africa, Americas, and Southeast Asia [2]. - The company has successfully penetrated high-end markets in Europe, achieving a market share of 17.5% in new energy bus exports, a year-on-year increase of over 5 percentage points [2]. Profitability and Valuation - The projected net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 4 billion, 4.5 billion, and 5.3 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 16, 14, and 12 times [3]. - The report indicates that the company's profitability is approaching historical highs, with a forecasted EPS of 1.79 yuan for 2024 [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the company's Q4 2024 performance exceeded expectations, driven by a significant increase in export sales and improvements in product mix [3][4] - The company is expected to benefit from the continuation of domestic policies supporting vehicle replacement and an increase in global market share, particularly in Western Europe [4][5] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is reported at 27,042 million, with projections of 35,980 million for 2024, 38,540 million for 2025, and 45,199 million for 2026, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 24.1% in 2023 and 33.1% in 2024 [4] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to rise from 1,817 million in 2023 to 4,072 million in 2024, 4,547 million in 2025, and 5,500 million in 2026, indicating a substantial growth of 139.4% in 2023 and 124.1% in 2024 [4] - The gross margin is expected to be 25.6% in 2023, decreasing to 20.9% in 2024, before recovering to 22.2% in 2025 and 22.6% in 2026 [4] Sales and Market Performance - In Q4 2024, the company achieved sales of 15,600 units, a year-on-year increase of 52.0%, with export sales reaching 4,910 units, up 64.3% year-on-year [4][5] - The share of new energy vehicles in total sales increased to 51.4% in Q4 2024, driven by domestic policies and strong demand in Europe [4][5] Investment Recommendations - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating, citing the company's strong global brand presence, improving sales structure, and high dividend yield as key factors for future growth [4][5] - Adjusted net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 are set at 40.72 billion, 45.47 billion, and 55.00 billion respectively, reflecting confidence in the company's competitive position [4][5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [5]. Core Views - The company forecasts a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.82 billion to 4.27 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 110% to 135%. The net profit excluding non-recurring items is expected to be between 3.18 billion and 3.61 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 125% to 155% [3][4]. - The domestic market shows continuous growth in passenger buses, while the overseas market benefits from globalization and high-end strategies, enhancing profitability through exports. The reduction in battery costs, combined with economies of scale, supports the company's ongoing performance improvement [3][4]. - The company has slowed down capital expenditures, ensuring sufficient cash flow to support high dividends [3]. Summary by Sections Performance Overview - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a net profit of 1.39 billion to 1.84 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 81.1% to 139.8%, and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 83.1% to 142.5%. The net profit excluding non-recurring items is projected to be between 1.11 billion and 1.54 billion yuan, with similar year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter growth [8]. - The total sales volume for Q4 2024 reached 15,572 units, a year-on-year increase of 52.0% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 44.3%, with export sales contributing significantly [8]. Market Strategy - The company is enhancing its direct sales and service model, aiming to improve service quality and efficiency. It plans to operate 56 direct service centers and 25 direct parts warehouses in 2024 [8]. - The company has a market share of 34.9% in the large and medium bus segment and aims to expand its global competitiveness in the electric bus sector [8]. Financial Projections - The company expects net profits of 4.07 billion, 4.81 billion, and 5.53 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 15.4X, 13.0X, and 11.3X [8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Yutong Bus (600066.SH) is "Buy" with a target price of 35.85 [1]. Core Views - Yutong Bus is expected to achieve significant growth in its annual performance for 2024, with a projected net profit attributable to shareholders ranging from 38.2 billion to 42.7 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 110% to 135% [2][4]. - The company anticipates a strong sales performance in both domestic and international markets, with total bus sales expected to reach 46,918 units in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 28.5% [4]. - The implementation of a "trade-in" policy is expected to boost domestic sales, particularly for new energy buses, as the government increases subsidies for replacing older vehicles [4]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, Yutong Bus forecasts a net profit of approximately 40.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 122.6%, with a fourth-quarter net profit of 16.1 billion yuan, up 110.3% [4]. - The company's revenue is projected to grow from 270 billion yuan in 2023 to 352 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a growth rate of 30.2% [5]. - The gross profit margin is expected to remain stable at around 25.4% in 2024, with a return on equity (ROE) projected at 23.9% [5]. Sales and Market Share - Yutong Bus's export sales are projected to reach 14,000 units in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 37.7%, contributing to a total market share of 22.7% in the Chinese bus export market [4]. - The company is also expected to capture a 24.1% market share in the new energy bus segment, with sales of 13,795 units, a year-on-year increase of 93.3% [4]. Profit Forecast - The net profit forecasts for Yutong Bus for the years 2024 to 2026 are 40 billion, 45 billion, and 52 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 16, 14, and 12 times [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 38.2 to 42.7 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 110% to 135%, which is above expectations [8] - In Q4 2024, the company anticipates a net profit of 1.61 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 110% to 113%, driven by the increase in the fair value of financial assets [8] - The company achieved a record high net profit per vehicle of 103,600 yuan in Q4 2024, with sales reaching 15,572 units, the highest since 2020, benefiting from economies of scale and optimized sales structure [8] - The company has increased its revenue forecasts for 2024 and 2025 to 36.5 billion yuan and 42.9 billion yuan, respectively, while maintaining the 2026 forecast at 49.9 billion yuan [8] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue for 2022 was 21.799 billion yuan, with a projected increase to 36.481 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 34.90% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2022 was 759.14 million yuan, expected to rise to 4.062 billion yuan in 2024, indicating a year-on-year growth of 123.54% [1] - The latest diluted EPS is projected to be 1.83 yuan in 2024, with a P/E ratio of 15.41 [1] - The company's total assets are expected to reach 35.346 billion yuan in 2024, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 61.12% [9]

证券代码:600066 证券简称：宇通客车 编号：临 2025-004 宇通客车股份有限公司 2024 年年度业绩预告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示: 本期业绩预告适用于实现盈利，且净利润与上年同期相比 上升 50%以上。 经财务部门初步测算，公司预计 2024 年年度归属于上市 公司股东的净利润为 38.2 亿元至 42.7 亿元，同比增加 110%至 135%。 扣除非经常性损益事项后，公司预计 2024 年年度归属于 上市公司股东的扣除非经常性损益的净利润为 31.8 亿元至 36.1 亿元，同比增加 125%至 155%。 一、本期业绩预告情况 （一）业绩预告期间 2024 年 1 月 1 日至 2024 年 12 月 31 日。 （二）业绩预告情况 1、经财务部门初步测算，预计 2024 年年度实现归属于上市 公司股东的净利润为 38.2 亿元至 42.7 亿元，与上年同期相比， 将增加 20.0 亿元至 24.5 亿元，同比增加 110%至 135%。 2、预计 2024 年年度实现 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 公司研究丨点评报告丨宇通客车（600066.SH） [Table_Title] 宇通客车 12 月销量点评：12 月销量同环比高 增，全年销量目标超额完成 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 公司发布 2024 年 12 月客车销量。宇通 12 月销售客车 8615 辆，同比+82.9%，环比+130.6%， 其中大中客车销量 7135，同比+78.0%，环比+160.0%；2024 年共销售客车 46918 辆，同比 +28.5%，大中客销量 40339 辆，同比+27.0%。国内市场，座位客车持续增长；海外市场，全 球化+高端化战略推进，出口凸显盈利水平；电池成本下降叠加规模效应，支撑公司业绩持续提 升。公司资本开支放缓，现金流充足保障高分红。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 高伊楠 张扬 SAC：S0490517060001 SAC：S0490524030004 SFC：BUW101 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 宇通客车（600066.SH） cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title 宇通客 ...

要点如下：1）公司预期2025年出口销量近10%增长，国内市场略增；其 中2025年以旧换新政策或对公交车销量有帮助，但幅度不好判断；2）2024 年4季度以及2025年全年利润率展望佳，因为规模效应和产品结构改 善；3）公司对分红率和资本支出指引未变，现金流表现佳，因此会维持高 分红的战略。 2025年展望积极 海外市场方面，公司初步预期2025年出口1.5万台以上，较2024年1.4万台 水平同比增长约10%，其中新能源客车的出口销量或增长更快。公司预期出 口业务毛利率仍有提升空间，主要由于2025年新能源客车占比提高，以 及2024年下半年电池价格进一步下降。宇通客车估算自身可触及海外市场 容量在8-10万台，主要集中在竞争相对缓和的中高端市场。国内市场方面， 受益于以旧换新政策的加码，宇通预期国内公交车市场将增长，但旅游车增 速或放缓。 abc 2025 年 01 月 13 日 快评 近期投资者反馈 宇通客车 2025瑞银大中华研讨会 根据我们和投资者的路演反馈，宇通客车股价近期涨幅较大，投资者分歧增 加。部分投资者选择获利了结，等待逢低布局；也有部分投资者错过 了2024年11月以来的股价反弹，但看 ...