1月9日，在周四的国际金属市场交易中，ZFX山海证券表示，贵金属走势出现了明显的背离。黄金价格 在经历早盘探底后成功企稳回升，录得日内温和涨幅。然而，白银市场则遭遇重挫，午盘时段价格大幅 走低。这种分化反映了市场在年末复杂的调仓环境下的不同心理。ZFX山海证券认为，白银的大幅波动 主要受到短线投机资金获利清算的影响，尤其是在技术图表呈现疲态后，市场抛压被进一步放大。 对于当前驱动市场的核心因素，ZFX山海证券表示，大宗商品指数的年度再平衡正进入关键节点。由于 过去一段时间贵金属表现强劲，其在各类商品基准指数中的权重已大幅超过预设比例，这触发了被动基 金的强制抛售机制。相关数据显示，白银期货市场预计将面临约68亿美元的卖盘压力，而黄金期货市场 同样有约68亿美元的资金流出预期。ZFX山海证券认为，这种由规则驱动的抛售并非基本面恶化，但在 短期内确实对金银价格的向上突破构成了显著阻力。 1月9日，在周四的国际金属市场交易中，ZFX山海证券表示，贵金属走势出现了明显的背离。黄金价格 在经历早盘探底后成功企稳回升，录得日内温和涨幅。然而，白银市场则遭遇重挫，午盘时段价格大幅 走低。这种分化反映了市场在年末复杂的调仓环 ...

文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 有朋友留言，希望螺丝钉把一些有数据、有知识、有指导方法的精华文章汇总出来，方便学习。 （1 ）《 未来还会看到5星级吗？ 》 导读： 如下，整理出了12月份的精华文章，点击对应的文章链接即可查看。 同时，螺丝钉也将相关文章的完整内容，汇总成了一个PDF文档，方便大家保存。 长按识别下面二维码，添加 @课程小助手 微信，回复「 202512 」即可领取PDF文档。 （提示：回复后可以耐心等待 几秒哦～） 大家有好的建议，也欢迎留言～ 热点问题 虽然5星级比较少见，但还是会有的。实际上，平均每3-5年，还是会遇到一次5星级的机会。假设未来我们要投资30年，那可能会遇到6次以上的5星 级。因为金融市场，存在周期性。当基本面周期、资金面周期、情绪面周期中的1-2个周期，处于顶部或者底部，就会带动市场出现牛熊市。所以，5星 级未来也不会缺少的。还是那句话，长期投资，不缺机会，缺钱～ （2 ）《 持有的品种，如果牛市里没到高估怎么办？ 》 导读： 其实，每一轮牛市都会必然遇到有品种到不了高估的情况。因为A股港股的牛市，经常是结构性牛市，往往是一部分品种上涨较多，其他品种低迷甚至 还 ...

Market Overview - The overall market experienced a decline, closing at 4.2 stars [1] - Large-cap stocks slightly decreased, while small-cap stocks saw a more significant drop [2] - Recently underperforming value styles showed an overall increase today [3] - Indices related to dividends and cash flow rose [4] - Growth styles, which had been strong recently, faced a notable decline today [5] - The market has been in a sideways trend for the past two to three months, characterized by style rotation between growth and value [6] Valuation Insights - Last Friday marked the index rebalancing day for December, and the valuations observed today reflect data post-rebalancing [7] - Most indices related to dividends, value, and low volatility saw a slight decrease in valuations after the rebalancing [8] Policy Impact - New policies aimed at boosting domestic demand were announced, leading to a general rise in consumption-related indices [9] Hong Kong Market - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a significant rise last Friday but saw a decline today [10] - Technology indices in Hong Kong returned to undervalued status after today's drop [11] Investment Strategies - Dollar-cost averaging (DCA) can serve two purposes: saving money and reducing cost volatility [12][16] - DCA is effective in lowering costs during downturns, allowing for potential profits without needing to return to previous price levels [18][20] - The bond fund category is vast, with varying levels of volatility [21] - Long-term pure bond investments are more effective for DCA, especially during high-value investment phases [25] Bond Market Dynamics - Bond markets can experience bear markets, as seen from 2016 to 2018 and 2020 to 2021 [27] - Rising interest rates post-bond declines can enhance the attractiveness of long-term pure bonds [28] - The investment value of long-term pure bonds increases when the 10-year government bond yield is low [30][33] Investment Products - Besides long-term pure bond funds, there are also secondary bond funds and mixed-asset funds that primarily invest in bonds with some equity exposure [35] - These mixed products often include low-volatility dividend stocks and high free cash flow stocks [36] - The current year has been favorable for mixed-asset funds, with notable performance [37] Upcoming Events - A live session is scheduled to discuss personal pension investments and index fund selection on December 16 [40]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the periodic update of the CSI Sub-Industry Food Index, which includes the addition of new constituent stocks and the removal of others, maintaining a total of 50 stocks [1] - New stocks added to the index include Kweichow Moutai, Jiyuan Group, Yiming Food, and Andeli, while stocks removed are Yili Group, Guangzhou Restaurant, Sanquan Foods, and Yunnan Energy Investment [1] - The largest ETF tracking the food and beverage sector, the Food and Beverage ETF (515170.SH), currently has a scale of 6.156 billion yuan and has completed its portfolio adjustment to include the newly added stocks [1] Group 2 - The index compilation rules state that the CSI Sub-Industry Theme Index Series consists of seven indices, including sub-indices for food, non-ferrous metals, chemicals, and machinery, selecting 50 listed companies based on market capitalization and liquidity [1] - Companies that fall behind in average daily trading volume and total market capitalization over the past year may be removed from the index to ensure overall representativeness [1] - There is a possibility for companies that are removed to be re-included in future adjustments if they meet the index criteria [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the investment strategies for index funds, emphasizing the importance of understanding index rebalancing and its impact on investment performance [6][7][8]. Group 1: Index Rebalancing - Index rebalancing refers to the adjustment of constituent stocks in an index according to specific rules, which can lead to buying high and selling low during market fluctuations [6][7]. - Regular rebalancing can cause indices like the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 to follow a pattern of buying stocks that have risen significantly and selling those that have fallen, potentially exacerbating market volatility [7][8]. Group 2: Historical Context - The phenomenon of indices chasing performance was observed during the 1990s tech bubble in the U.S., where stocks associated with the internet saw significant price increases, leading to their inclusion in major indices like the Nasdaq 100, which later suffered during the market correction [8]. Group 3: Solutions to Mitigate Risks - Two strategies are proposed to mitigate the risks associated with index rebalancing: 1. Consider strategy indices that do not rely on market capitalization for stock selection, thus avoiding the pitfalls of performance chasing [11][12]. 2. Explore enhanced index funds, which invest 80% in index constituents while using 20% for active management to avoid stocks with clear bubbles [13][14].

文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 在有特殊事件发生，以致影响指数的代 表性和可投资性时，指数公司将对指数 样本做出必要的临时调整。 指数的临时调仓通常比较少见。 (2) 定期调仓 具体的频率和时间，以及对应的代表指 数,如下图所示: | 定期调仓的频率 | 定期调整的时间 | 代表指数 | | --- | --- | --- | | 每季度调整 | 每年3月、6月、9月和12月的第 | 科创50、科创100、 | | | 二个星期五的下一交易日 | 中证全指自由现金流等 | | 每半年调整 | 每年6月和12月的第二个星期五 | 沪深300、中证500、中证 | | | 的下一交易日 | 1000、中证2000等 | | 每年调整 | 每年12月的第二个星期五的下 | 中证红利、上证红利等 | | | 一交易日 | | 对中证等系列的指数,每次调仓,通常 是在6月和12月份第二个周五之后。 不同指数,调合频率也会有区别。 例如沪深300、中证500指数,都是6月 和12月调仓一次。相关的300价值、500 低波动指数,也是如此。 不过像中证红利、上证红利指数，就是 依据样本稳定性和动态跟踪相结合的原 则 ...

Core Viewpoint - The adjustment of the SSE 50 Index reflects a shift between traditional and emerging industries, indicating changes in market liquidity rather than a direct correlation with the fundamental performance of the companies involved [1][5]. Group 1: Index Adjustment Details - The SSE 50 Index will see the removal of China Mobile, Poly Developments, China Aluminum, and CRRC, while SAIC Motor, Northern Rare Earth, Huadian New Energy, and Zhongke Shuguang will be added, effective December 12 [1]. - The index is based on the SSE 180 Index, selecting the top 50 securities with the largest market capitalization and liquidity, with adjustments occurring semi-annually [2]. Group 2: Performance of Removed Companies - China Mobile reported a net profit of 842 billion yuan in the first half of the year, a 5% increase year-on-year, but was removed due to low average daily trading volume [3]. - Poly Developments, despite being the highest market cap in the real estate sector with a market value of 760.12 billion yuan, was also removed for similar liquidity reasons, although it demonstrated strong sales recovery and cash flow capabilities [3]. - China Aluminum and CRRC's removal is attributed to decreased trading activity linked to macroeconomic cycles affecting their respective industries [4]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Future Outlook - Analysts view the index adjustment as a normal operation within the rules, emphasizing that it does not strongly correlate with the companies' fundamentals [5]. - Both China Mobile and Poly Developments remain industry leaders, with China Mobile having 980 million mobile users and a significant role in 5G infrastructure [5][6]. - Poly Developments is transitioning from merely selling properties to managing them, aligning with national economic goals, and continues to hold a substantial market share in the real estate sector [6]. - Historical data shows that companies removed from indices can still perform well based on their fundamentals, indicating that long-term value is determined by core business performance rather than index inclusion [7].

文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 今天大盘盘中一度下跌，到收盘反弹，中证全指略微上涨。 大盘还在4.2星。 像上证和中证系列的指数，基本上都是6月和12月份调仓，调仓时间是当月第二个周五之后。 螺丝钉也收集了一些大家感兴趣的问题。 1. 指数为啥要定期调仓呢？ 指数都有一定的选股规则和选股数量的要求。 一段时间里股票涨涨跌跌，有的股票就不符合要求。 沪深300等大盘股略微下跌，中小盘股上涨。 价值风格中，自由现金流等指数上涨。 前两天上涨的创业板等成长风格，盘中下跌较多，到收盘反弹了起来，波动不大。 港股今天盘中也下跌，波动比A股小一些。 不过到收盘，港股也反弹，整体上涨。 后天，也就是12月12日，收盘后，又到了指数调仓日了。 这个过程，不会让基金净值出现太大变化的，投资者持有该基金的盈利也不会发生变化（假设指数不涨不跌）。 但底层持有品种变化，估值会改变。 3. 此次调仓，主要指数的估值会怎么变化呢？ 因为指数比较多，螺丝钉收集了一些有代表性的指数。 另外指数默认不考虑亏损公司，有的股票亏损了，也会被踢出指数。 2. 调仓前后，指数基金的净值会变化吗？持有基金的盈利会变化吗？ 调仓不改变基金的盈亏情 ...

Core Viewpoint - Index rebalancing is a process that ensures the vitality of indices by removing stocks that do not meet criteria and adding new ones, which can impact the valuation of various indices [3][4][5]. Group 1: Index Rebalancing Types - Index rebalancing can be categorized into two types: temporary adjustments due to special events and regular adjustments based on sample stability [6][9]. - Temporary adjustments are rare, while regular adjustments occur periodically, such as every quarter or semi-annually [7][12]. Group 2: Frequency and Timing of Regular Rebalancing - Regular rebalancing occurs at different frequencies: quarterly, semi-annually, or annually, with specific dates for major indices like the CSI 300 and CSI 500 [13][14][16]. Group 3: Impact on Valuation - The recent rebalancing has led to changes in average valuations for various indices, with the CSI 300 and CSI 500 seeing increases in both price-to-earnings (P/E) and price-to-book (P/B) ratios [17][22][23]. - The CSI 2000 index, however, experienced a decrease in valuation due to the removal of loss-making companies, which increased the average earnings denominator [26]. Group 4: Strategy Indices Valuation Changes - Strategy indices like the CSI A500 and CSI Dividend have shown varying impacts on valuations post-rebalancing, with some indices experiencing increases while others, like the CSI Value, typically see decreases [31][32][39]. Group 5: Investor Considerations - Investors do not need to take action during index rebalancing, as it is managed by fund managers, and they should continue to hold their investments [59][61]. - The rebalancing process can lead to changes in index valuations, which may enhance the investment value of certain indices, particularly those with value strategies [62].

Group 1 - The core concept of index rebalancing is the adjustment of constituent stocks according to the index's compilation rules, ensuring the index's vitality by removing stocks that do not meet the criteria and adding new ones [3][4] - There are two main types of index rebalancing: temporary rebalancing, which occurs due to special events affecting the index's representativeness, and regular rebalancing, which is conducted periodically based on sample stability and dynamic tracking [5][9] - Regular rebalancing occurs at different frequencies, such as quarterly, semi-annually, or annually, with specific dates for major indices like the CSI 300 and others [14][15] Group 2 - The impact of the latest rebalancing on index valuations shows that the average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for the CSI 300 and other indices have increased, while the CSI 2000's valuation has decreased [18][20] - Value and low-volatility strategy indices tend to see a decrease in valuation after rebalancing, which may enhance their investment attractiveness [19][20] - The issue of "buying high and selling low" is prevalent in market capitalization-weighted indices, where stocks that have risen significantly are included, while those that have fallen are excluded, leading to potential pitfalls during market corrections [21][26] Group 3 - Solutions to mitigate the drawbacks of market capitalization-weighted indices include considering strategy indices that do not rely on market cap for stock selection, thus avoiding the "buy high, sell low" scenario [27][32] - Index-enhanced funds, which invest 80% in index constituents and 20% in enhanced operations, can help avoid stocks with clear bubbles [34] - Despite their drawbacks, market capitalization-weighted indices like the CSI 300 remain significant due to their capacity to accommodate large amounts of capital, making them essential in the market [37][39]