Core Viewpoint - The A-share market sees a rise in liquor stocks despite overall demand decline, with specific brands like Moutai performing well while others face pressure [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Liquor stocks such as Huangtai Liquor and Shui Jing Fang hit the daily limit, with Shui Jing Fang rising over 7% and Jin Hui Liquor over 6% [1] - Other brands like Jinzhongzi Liquor, Jiu Gui Liquor, and Ying Jia Gong Jiu increased by over 3%, while Shede Liquor, Wuliangye, Kouzi Jiao, and Guizhou Moutai rose over 2% [1] Group 2: Demand Analysis - According to a recent report by China Merchants Securities, total demand for liquor is still declining, with a double-digit decrease, aligning with previous expectations [1] - In terms of specific scenarios, business banquets are primarily small gatherings, and mid-to-high-end dining remains sluggish, although there is some recovery in gift-giving demand [1] Group 3: Brand Performance - There is a significant brand differentiation, with Moutai showing excellent sales performance and preemptive stocking for the Spring Festival, while other brands are under pressure [1]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market for liquor stocks has shown resilience, with several key stocks experiencing significant gains despite an overall decline in demand for liquor products [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Huangtai Liquor reached the daily limit increase, while Shuijingfang rose over 7%, and Jinhui Liquor increased by more than 6% [1] - Other notable gains include Jizhongzi Liquor, Jiugui Liquor, and Yingjia Gongjiu, each rising over 3%, while Shede Liquor, Wuliangye, Kouzi Jiao, and Guizhou Moutai saw increases of over 2% [1] Group 2: Demand Analysis - According to a recent report from China Merchants Securities, total demand for liquor is still declining, with a double-digit decrease, aligning with previous expectations [1] - In terms of specific scenarios, business banquets are primarily small gatherings, and the mid-to-high-end dining sector remains sluggish, although there is some recovery in gift-giving demand [1] Group 3: Brand Performance - There is a clear differentiation among brands, with Moutai performing exceptionally well, benefiting from pre-holiday stocking demands, while other brands are under pressure [1]

Market Overview - The A-share market opened with mixed results on February 2, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.93%, Shenzhen Component Index down 0.54%, and the ChiNext Index up 0.65 [1] - The market showed slight fluctuations in the morning, with the declines in the Shanghai and Shenzhen indices narrowing while the ChiNext Index continued to rise [1] Nonferrous Metals Sector - The nonferrous metals sector experienced a significant drop, with the index falling nearly 7% and over 30 stocks hitting the daily limit down during the opening [2][3] - Major stocks such as Xiaocheng Technology (300139) and Jiangxi Copper (600362) also faced limit down situations [3] Precious Metals Futures - Domestic precious metals and nonferrous metal futures saw a sharp decline, with silver futures down 17% and gold futures down over 14% [5][6] - Spot gold and silver initially rebounded but then continued to decline, with gold dropping over 6% and silver nearly 8% [7] Oil and Petrochemical Sector - The oil and petrochemical sector also faced declines, with major stocks like Zhongman Petroleum (603619) and PetroChina (600759) hitting limit down [8][9] - The drop in international oil prices was influenced by geopolitical tensions in Iran, with recent statements from U.S. President Trump indicating a desire for negotiations [8] Telecommunications Sector - The three major telecom operators, China Mobile (600941), China Telecom (601728), and China Unicom, all saw declines of over 4% [10] - A recent announcement from the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration indicated an increase in VAT rates for telecom services starting January 1, 2026, which may impact revenue and profits [11] Liquor Sector - The liquor sector saw a rebound, with stocks like Shui Jing Fang (600779) and Huangtai Liquor (000995) hitting the daily limit up [12][13] - The liquor industry has been in a correction phase for about five years, with current valuations and institutional positions at historical lows, suggesting potential for recovery [14]

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 连亏五年、去库存、卖资产：这家安徽酒企还在"失血" 来源：摩斯观市 2026年1月28日，金种子酒（600199.SH）发布2025年年度业绩预亏公告，其全年业绩仍未摆脱亏损态 势，但亏损幅度较上年有所收窄。 公告显示，2025年金种子酒预计实现归母净利润为-1.9亿元至-1.5亿元，扣非归母净利润为-2.1亿元 至-1.7亿元。对比上年同期，金种子酒2024年利润总额为-2.52亿元，归母净利润为-2.58亿元，扣非后归 母净利润为-2.67亿元，亏损收窄。 公司解释称，2025年金种子酒业绩预亏的核心原因在于，白酒行业仍处于深度调整期，缩量特征愈发明 显，市场渠道变革持续加剧，使得金种子酒销售端面临较大压力。尽管金种子酒在2025年对业务模式与 费用管理模式进行了优化，在消费者培育方面取得一定进展，但受行业大环境影响及培育期的持续投 入，金种子酒未能在当年实现扭亏为盈。 从近年业绩走势来看，金种子酒的经营压力逐年显现。Choice数据显示，2023年至2025年三季度，金种 子酒营业收入分别为14.69亿元、9.25亿元、6.28亿 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor industry is facing significant challenges in 2025, with many companies experiencing a shift from profit to loss or a notable decline in performance due to deep industry adjustments and intense market competition [1][3]. Company Performance - JiuGuiJiu (酒鬼酒) expects a net profit loss of 33 million to 49 million yuan for 2025, marking a shift from profit to loss [1][2]. - Shunxin Agriculture (顺鑫农业) anticipates a net profit loss of 116 million to 188 million yuan, also transitioning from profit to loss due to intense market pressure and declining sales [1][2]. - Jinzhongzi Liquor (金种子酒) projects a net profit loss of 150 million to 190 million yuan, remaining in a loss position despite a narrowing of losses compared to the previous year [3]. - Tianyoude Liquor (天佑德酒) expects a net profit of 4.21 million to 6.32 million yuan, reflecting a significant decline of 85% to 90% year-on-year [2][3]. - ShuiJingFang (水井坊) forecasts a net profit of 392 million yuan, down 71% year-on-year, with Q4 net profit declining by 70% [2][3]. - KouziJiao (口子窖) anticipates a net profit of 662 million to 828 million yuan, representing a decrease of 50% to 60% year-on-year [3]. Industry Trends - The liquor industry is entering a deep adjustment phase influenced by macroeconomic cycles, industry adjustments, and policy changes, leading to slow recovery in core consumption scenarios [3]. - High inventory levels and weak terminal sales are common pressures affecting the industry, directly impacting company operations [3]. - Despite the current downturn, there are indications that the industry may gradually enter a recovery phase as macroeconomic conditions improve and consumer demand rebounds [4].

一家卖白酒的公司，到底能亏多少钱？ 安徽的这家上市酒企，用五年时间给了我们一个惊人的答案：亏损超过7.8亿元。 最近，金种子酒又一次发布了业绩预亏公告，25年预计亏损1.5-1.9亿元。 这就引出了一个灵魂拷问：白酒不是高毛利行业吗，茅台、五粮液的赚钱能力人尽皆知，怎么金种子还 能亏成这样？ 答案恰恰出在"毛利"上。2024年，金种子酒的白酒业务毛利率只有38.4%，在A股白酒上市公司中，排 在倒数第一。 2023年底，卖掉一块地；2024年中，挂牌近百处房产；2025年底，将旗下经营多年的药厂股权出手。三 次变卖，换回超过3亿元的资金。 难道就没人来救它吗？有。而且来头不小。 2022年，央企巨头华润带着资本和光环入场，成为了它的二股东。当时所有人都以为，故事的转折点来 了——华润强大的渠道和资源，总该能点石成金了吧？ 华润系的高管火速入驻，新的战略轰轰烈烈展开。然而，三年过去了，亏损的报表依旧。 2025年，曾被寄予厚望的华润系掌舵人，也先后转身离开。一场被看好的"跨界拯救"，似乎陷入了僵 局。 它卖的酒，绝大部分都扎堆在100元以下、竞争最惨烈的低端市场。薄利，但并没能多销。 金种子酒自己不知道问题吗？ ...

Group 1 - The liquor sector experienced a significant surge on January 29, with stocks rising across the board, led by Kweichow Moutai, which closed at 1437.72 yuan, up 8.61% from the previous trading day, marking the highest single-day increase in nearly 16 months [1] - Kweichow Moutai's market capitalization returned to 1.8 trillion yuan, indicating a strong recovery in investor confidence [1] - More than ten A-share listed liquor companies, including Wuliangye, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Luzhou Laojiao, reached their daily price limits, while Hong Kong-listed liquor company Zhenjiu Lidu saw a single-day increase of over 12% [1] Group 2 - The liquor industry is currently in an adjustment phase, with a bottoming process being the norm, and signs of recovery are not yet evident [3] - The upcoming Spring Festival holiday presents a significant opportunity for liquor consumption, and the industry is encouraged to leverage this key consumption period to enhance market investment and brand promotion [3]

今日（1月29日），白酒等消费股迎来大反弹。截至收盘，贵州茅台大涨8.6%，成交额超260亿元。金种子酒、皇台酒业、迎驾贡酒、金徽酒等近20 股涨停。白酒板块全天成交金额超600亿。 消息面上，本周以来，多款飞天茅台价格涨幅明显，与1月26日相比，2026年飞天茅台原箱（53度/500ml）上涨了55元，2026年飞天茅台散瓶上 涨了20元；2025年飞天茅台原箱（53度/500ml）上涨了55元，2025年飞天茅台散瓶上涨了20元。 华安证券在近日的研报中也指出，以食品饮料为代表的消费行业已经历持续5年之久的罕见下跌，背后是市场共识的彻底扭转，叙事逻辑由持续上涨 期的"核心资产"转为调整期的"传统资产，导致当前多数消费细分板块及头部企业已处在历史估值5%/10%以下分位水平。当前在风格的极致分化之 下，预计2026年后续消费头部企业的下跌空间将会有限、向上弹性将会更大。 从底层逻辑上看，随着更多关注内需和消费的政策出台，机构认为，2026年初，扩内需政策进入密集落地期，国家发展改革委、财政部联合印发《关 于2026年实施大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新政策的通知》，商务部部署提振消费专项行动，从实物消费到服务 ...

Core Viewpoint - The white liquor sector has experienced a significant rebound, with major stocks seeing substantial gains, indicating a potential recovery in consumer sentiment and market confidence [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - On January 29, the white liquor and consumer stocks surged, with Kweichow Moutai rising by 8.6% and achieving a trading volume exceeding 26 billion yuan [1]. - Nearly 20 stocks, including Jinzhidao Liquor, Huangtai Liquor, Yingjia Gongjiu, and Jinhui Liquor, reached their daily price limits [1]. - The total trading volume for the white liquor sector surpassed 60 billion yuan throughout the day [1].

水井坊、舍得酒业、皇台酒业、酒鬼酒、金徽酒涨停，泸州老窖逼近涨停，金种子酒、古井贡酒、山西 汾酒、贵州茅台均涨超7%。 ...