Core Viewpoint - The adjustment trend in the liquor industry is becoming increasingly severe, as evidenced by the third-quarter financial reports of 20 A-share liquor companies, indicating significant declines in revenue and net profit [1] Financial Performance - The total revenue of 20 liquor companies in the third quarter reached 77.976 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 18.47% [1] - The net profit for these companies was 28.011 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year drop of 22.22%, marking a new low for this cycle [1] Industry Dynamics - The "Matthew Effect" is becoming more pronounced, with only Kweichow Moutai and Shanxi Fenjiu achieving growth in both revenue and net profit, while the performance decline of the other 18 companies has worsened compared to the second quarter [1] - Over half of the liquor companies reported a year-on-year decline in net profit, with regional companies facing particularly severe challenges [1] Regional Company Challenges - Kuozi Jiao's net profit plummeted by 92.55%, nearing a loss, while several companies like Jiu Gui Jiu and Huang Tai Jiu Ye have also fallen into losses [1] - Jinzhongzi Jiu experienced a slight revenue increase of 3.73%, but still reported a net loss, failing to reverse the industry's downturn [1] Market Trends - The industry is witnessing a dual pressure from top-tier companies and the inherent brand and channel weaknesses of regional firms, leading to a shrinking survival space [1] - The trend towards lower alcohol content and targeting younger consumers is becoming irreversible in the liquor industry, with the market for low-alcohol beverages expected to exceed 74 billion yuan by 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of 25%, significantly outpacing the overall liquor industry [1] - Both top-tier and regional liquor companies need to optimize product structures and cultivate younger customer bases to explore new growth avenues [1]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes that despite the prevailing narrative of economic hardship, certain industries are thriving and generating substantial profits, particularly in the context of Japan's "lost 30 years" and its implications for China [3][4]. Group 1: Emerging Opportunities - The article identifies eight key industries that are experiencing growth despite a low-desire society, highlighting that consumer demand is shifting rather than disappearing [4][5]. - The second-hand economy is booming, with examples like Japan's "Daikokuya" and China's "Hongbulin" and "Panghu" seeing significant revenue increases as consumers opt for second-hand luxury goods [6][7][8][9]. - The pet economy is flourishing, with brands like "Inaba" in Japan and "Guibao" in China witnessing strong sales, as younger generations prioritize spending on pets over traditional family structures [11][12][13][14][15]. Group 2: Health and Wellness Trends - The adult care market is expanding, with Japan's "Unicharm" leading the adult diaper segment, which has surpassed $10 billion in market size, indicating a potential growth area in China [16][17][18]. - Health food and beverage sectors are rising due to changing demographics and increased health awareness, with brands like "Oriental Leaf" and "Jianchun" gaining traction in the post-pandemic era [21][22]. Group 3: Beauty and Lifestyle - The beauty economy is thriving, with products like collagen supplements and home beauty devices achieving significant sales, reflecting a consumer desire for affordable beauty solutions [23][25]. - Outdoor and leisure activities are gaining popularity, with brands like "Snow Peak" in Japan and various Chinese outdoor brands experiencing rapid sales growth, as consumers seek experiences over material possessions [25][26][27]. Group 4: Emotional and Convenience Economies - The emotional economy is highlighted through the success of brands like "Labubu" and "Rio," which cater to consumers' desires for comfort and enjoyment during challenging times [28][29][30]. - The convenience economy is on the rise, with frozen food brands and smart home appliances addressing the needs of younger generations who have less time for cooking [33][35][36]. Group 5: Strategic Planning and Future Outlook - The article concludes by urging businesses to adapt their strategies in light of these emerging trends, emphasizing the importance of strategic planning and resource allocation to thrive in a low-desire economy [39][40].

高端白酒价格的持续下跌是今年备受关注的现象，伴随库存积压、价格倒挂现象的加剧，关于消费断代与场景 变迁的讨论也始终持续。 公司内部可能存在经营节奏的变化和管理层变化对渠道信心的变化。但这些都是短期现象，我们要观察长期， 还是要 基于产品的品质、矩阵和品牌等核心竞争力 。 目前来看，能够提供确定性判断的是，高端白酒本身的格局没有大变化，品质和产品结构也可观察。今年公司 面对较大的外部需求冲击，但仍存偏刚性的收入增长考核，于是出现了渠道结构失衡和淡季供求失衡的情况。 但从长期看，平台低价产品的量是有限的，强大的品牌力，会让这部分产品很快被更多消费者消化。 当然，我们并不能断言当前价格就是本轮周期的最低价，这取决于明年需求端的变化、公司供给侧的增长考核 目标，以及产品结构中的增量品种等，这是由多维度共同决定的，所以判断短期价格的难度比较大。 但目前进入经销商开始亏损的阶段，产业整体价值链在收缩，其他白酒出现普遍性亏损，类似其他周期品全行 业现金流成本开始亏损、甚至最龙头的企业现金流也开始亏损。头部白酒公司生存能力足够强，不会亏损，但 产业链出现亏损时，他们也会有库存出清的阶段。 处于这样的周期调整阶段，我们可以观察 ...

Core Insights - The article emphasizes that despite the prevailing narrative of economic hardship, certain industries are thriving and generating substantial profits, particularly in the context of Japan's "lost 30 years" and its implications for China [3][4]. Group 1: Economic Trends - The concept of a "low-desire society" does not equate to a lack of opportunities, as consumer behavior is shifting towards different spending patterns [4]. - The article identifies "consumption upgrading" and "demand migration" as significant business opportunities in the current economic landscape [5]. Group 2: Key Industries - The second-hand economy is booming, with examples like Japan's "Daikokuya" and China's "Hongbulin" and "Panghu" seeing significant revenue increases as consumers opt for second-hand luxury goods [6][7]. - The pet economy is on the rise, with brands like "Inaba" in Japan and "Guobao" in China experiencing strong sales growth, reflecting a shift in spending towards pet care products [12][13][14]. - The adult care market is expanding, with Japan's "Unicharm" leading the adult diaper segment, which has surpassed $10 billion in market size [17][18]. - Health food and beverage sectors are thriving due to changing demographics and rising health consciousness, with brands like "Oriental Tree Leaf" and "Jianchun" gaining traction in China [21]. - The beauty economy remains robust, with products like collagen supplements and home beauty devices seeing high sales, indicating a persistent consumer desire for self-improvement [23][24][26]. - Outdoor leisure activities are gaining popularity, with brands like "Kailas" and "Camel" in China experiencing rapid sales growth as consumers seek outdoor experiences [29][31]. - The "lazy economy" is emerging, with increased demand for convenience foods and smart home appliances, as consumers prioritize time-saving solutions over traditional cooking [39][40][42]. Group 3: Market Opportunities - The article suggests that the current economic climate presents opportunities for those willing to invest in counter-cyclical sectors, highlighting the importance of recognizing and seizing these opportunities [44].

Industry Insights - Low-alcohol beverages are currently a trend but are not seen as the future of Chinese liquor. The high pricing of these products indicates a lack of genuine intent to cater to young consumers [5][6][9] - Young consumers are less inclined to purchase traditional Chinese liquor due to its high price point, preferring more affordable options like fruit wine and beer. As they gain more experience and income, they may develop a taste for high-quality liquor [6][9] - The storage value of low-alcohol liquor is minimal, as evidenced by the lack of price appreciation over the past decade, contrasting with the significant price increase of high-alcohol liquor [6][9] - The current market dynamics indicate a significant price competition among liquor producers, driven by overproduction and a mismatch between supply and demand. This situation is expected to persist for the next 3 to 5 years [9][14] - The liquor distribution channels are facing challenges, but this adjustment period presents an opportunity for channel development and profitability in the long run [9][10] Company Developments - The company has been expanding its offline retail presence, aiming to open 10,000 stores in the next three years, leveraging the removal of upstream production constraints [19][20] - The company emphasizes a competitive pricing strategy, proposing that premium liquor should only have a minimal markup to attract price-sensitive consumers [20][22] - The company is focusing on enhancing its brand image and market presence through innovative marketing strategies, including the development of personal brands by entrepreneurs [15][23] - The company has reported a 20% year-over-year revenue growth in the third quarter, indicating a strong operational performance [19]

Core Viewpoint - The chairman of JiuXian Group, Hao Hongfeng, asserts that while low-alcohol beverages are currently a trend, they do not represent the future of Chinese liquor, particularly due to their high pricing which lacks sincerity towards younger consumers [3][4][5]. Industry Insights - The trend towards low-alcohol and youth-oriented products is seen as a temporary hotspot rather than a sustainable future direction for Chinese liquor [4]. - Young consumers are currently less inclined to purchase traditional Chinese liquor due to its high price, which is often beyond their budget [4][5]. - The pricing strategy for low-alcohol products is criticized, as prices above 100 yuan are considered too high for young consumers entering the workforce [4][5]. - The storage value of low-alcohol beverages is questioned, with historical data showing that prices have not appreciated over the past decade, unlike high-alcohol products [7]. - The current adjustment period in the liquor industry is viewed as an opportunity for channel development, despite short-term challenges faced by distributors and retail outlets [7][8]. - The phenomenon of price inversion in the liquor market is highlighted, with excess production leading to price competition and a need for rationalization over the next 3 to 5 years [11]. Company Developments - JiuXian Group has been expanding its offline retail presence, aiming to open 10,000 stores in the next three years, leveraging the removal of upstream production constraints [15][16]. - The company has experienced significant revenue growth, with a 20% year-on-year increase in the third quarter, indicating a strong operational performance [15]. - The strategy of focusing on high-quality, cost-effective products is emphasized, with the company aiming to cater to consumers seeking value without compromising on quality [21]. - The chairman notes that the relationship between manufacturers and distributors needs to evolve towards a model that prioritizes consumer sales over inventory pressure on distributors [10].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" and has been maintained from the previous rating [4][77]. Core Insights - The report identifies key consumer trends among the younger generation, particularly focusing on the Z generation's consumption behavior and preferences [7][12]. - There is a strong demand for high-quality milk tea, with a significant market opportunity for stores priced between 10-20 yuan [22]. - The rise of "punk health" culture is noted, with an increase in the popularity of low-alcohol beverages and social drinking in casual settings [25]. - Sports consumption is on the rise, with a notable interest in cycling and high-investment sports equipment [37]. - The report highlights a broader penetration of the 95 post-95 generation in various markets, although pre-95 consumers are identified as having higher spending power [47]. Summary by Sections Key Observations Based on Important Categories - **Milk Tea Demand**: There is a robust market for milk tea priced between 10-20 yuan, supported by high consumer demand and improved delivery capabilities [22][23]. - **Punk Health Trend**: The trend of casual drinking is increasing, with younger consumers showing a preference for low-alcohol options in social settings [25][29]. - **Sports Consumption Growth**: Younger consumers are increasingly participating in sports, with a focus on cycling and outdoor activities, leading to higher spending in these areas [37][42]. Z Generation Basic Consumption Behavior Characteristics - The Z generation exhibits a strong inclination towards quality over price, with a willingness to spend more for better products [20][19]. - There is a notable increase in the use of health supplements among younger consumers, indicating a shift towards health-conscious spending [31][34]. - The influence of social media platforms like Douyin and Xiaohongshu on purchasing decisions is growing, with younger consumers being significantly affected by peer recommendations and content from these platforms [72][73].

Group 1: Market Performance - The three major indices opened higher on November 6, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.10%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.37%, and the ChiNext Index up 0.60% [1] - The Tianhong Food and Beverage ETF (159736) rose by 0.28%, with a premium trading rate of 0.06% [1] - As of November 5, the Tianhong Food and Beverage ETF had a latest circulating scale of 5.622 billion yuan, ranking first among food and beverage ETFs in the Shenzhen market [1] Group 2: Fund Flows - The Tianhong Food and Beverage ETF experienced net inflows for 9 out of the last 10 days, accumulating nearly 120 million yuan [1] - The ETF tracks the CSI Food and Beverage Index, focusing on leading stocks in high-end and mid-range liquor, as well as segments like beverages, dairy, and condiments [1] Group 3: Agricultural Sector - The Tianhong Agricultural ETF (subscription code: 512623, listing code: 512620) officially launched on November 3, with fundraising set to end on November 7, 2025 [1] - This ETF tracks the CSI Agricultural Index, which selects 50 stocks covering sectors such as breeding and agricultural chemicals, including leading companies like Muyuan and Haida [1] Group 4: Industry Insights - Guizhou Province's Commerce Department is soliciting opinions on transforming "selling liquor" into "selling lifestyle," encouraging innovation in product offerings and service methods in retail and dining sectors [2] - As of October 30, over 90% of the autumn grain harvest has been completed nationwide, with the Northeast region nearing completion and expected to achieve a good harvest [2] Group 5: White Liquor Market Analysis - Guosen Securities reports that the white liquor market is facing pressure on both volume and price due to tightening regulations on public consumption and business banquets [3] - The report indicates that the worst period for white liquor sales pressure has passed, with expectations for demand recovery in the future [3] - Guosen Securities suggests focusing on stable industry leaders and high-quality stocks with long-term growth potential due to ongoing structural upgrades and channel strategy optimization [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Guizhou Provincial Department of Commerce has issued a draft guideline aimed at transforming the local liquor industry from "selling liquor" to "selling lifestyle" in response to the overall pressure on the liquor industry [1][3]. Group 1: Industry Transformation - The guideline emphasizes a shift from "selling liquor" to "selling services," encouraging producers to maintain quality, enhance skills, and innovate products [3]. - It aims to enhance consumer experiences through immersive cultural engagement, improving their appreciation and emotional value associated with liquor [3]. Group 2: Key Tasks for Industry Upgrade - **Enhancing Product and Service Supply**: The guideline supports collaboration between enterprises and educational institutions to innovate and diversify product offerings, including low-alcohol and flavored liquors [4]. - **Promoting Industry Integration**: It advocates for the integration of liquor with tourism, dining, and cultural activities, expanding market boundaries and enhancing cross-industry consumption [5]. - **Creating New Consumption Scenarios**: The guideline proposes developing new consumption venues and cultural festivals to enrich consumer experiences and promote local liquor culture [6]. - **Upgrading Marketing Models**: It encourages businesses to shift marketing strategies from product-focused to service-oriented, utilizing both online and offline platforms for targeted marketing [6]. - **Developing Talent**: The guideline emphasizes the need for training and attracting professionals in the liquor industry, including sommeliers and brewers, to support industry growth [7]. - **Strengthening Cultural Heritage**: It calls for the preservation and innovative development of liquor culture, promoting Guizhou's liquor heritage and enhancing its international visibility [8]. Group 3: Implementation Support - To ensure the effective implementation of these policies, Guizhou Province plans to establish a coordination mechanism and provide financial support to encourage investment in equipment, product development, and market expansion [8].

Core Insights - The impact of real estate adjustments on consumer spending in China is significant, especially compared to Japan's real estate bubble period from 1986 to 1990, due to deeper household involvement and rapid mortgage growth during China's real estate boom from 2004 to 2021 [2][4][5] - China is implementing a combination of short-term counter-cyclical subsidies and long-term consumption potential cultivation policies to stimulate consumer spending [2][9] - The growth potential for consumption in lower-tier cities and rural areas is substantial, driven by high household savings rates and lower debt pressures compared to first-tier cities [2][17][25] Real Estate Adjustment and Consumer Impact - The rapid decline in housing prices has led to increased debt pressure on Chinese households, with personal housing loan balances growing significantly from 2004 to 2021 [4][5] - The debt accumulation rate for personal housing loans in China has exceeded 20% CAGR from 2005 to 2020, indicating a sharp rise in housing loan pressure [5] - The reliance on pre-sale housing sales models in China amplifies risks, as families begin repaying loans before experiencing the property, leading to potential financial distress if projects fail [5][8] Policy Responses and Consumption Stimulus - The Chinese government has set a policy direction to stimulate consumption, including the introduction of trade-in and subsidy programs, as well as consumption vouchers [9][10] - Local governments are implementing specific measures to ensure the effectiveness of consumption stimulus policies, such as providing subsidies for vehicle upgrades and issuing consumption vouchers [9][10] - A collaborative effort among nine departments aims to expand service consumption, addressing the slowdown in service spending growth [10] Comparison with Japan's Experience - Japan's experience during the 1990s shows that after a decline in housing prices, income expectations significantly affect household consumption, highlighting the need for China to avoid similar pitfalls [7][8] - The long-term economic downturn in Japan was exacerbated by a decline in labor market conditions and rising unemployment, which led to a contraction in household consumption [7][8] Consumption Growth Potential in China - The narrowing income gap between urban and rural residents has led to higher consumption growth rates in rural areas, which are less affected by real estate price adjustments [17][25] - Consumption growth in lower-tier cities is outpacing that in major cities, indicating a shift in consumer spending patterns [20][25] - The focus on regional economic balance and infrastructure investment is expected to further enhance consumption potential in lower-tier cities [25] Young Generation and Consumption Trends - The younger generation in China, particularly the "Z generation," is characterized by a strong willingness to spend, supported by family wealth transfer and a lack of inheritance tax [26][27] - The rise of digital economy and new job types has created diverse income streams for young consumers, fostering a cycle of increased spending and consumption upgrades [27][29] - The cultural emphasis on family support for the younger generation contrasts sharply with Western norms, providing a solid foundation for consumer spending [26][27]