Market Overview - On September 30, the coal mining sector rose by 0.05% compared to the previous trading day, with Panjiang Coal and Electricity leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3882.78, up 0.52%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13526.51, up 0.35% [1] Individual Stock Performance - Panjiang Coal and Electricity (600395) closed at 5.39, up 2.47% with a trading volume of 305,100 shares and a turnover of 163 million yuan [1] - Jiangxi Tungsten Industry Equipment (600397) closed at 6.96, up 1.31% with a trading volume of 260,700 shares and a turnover of 181 million yuan [1] - Huai Bei Mining (600985) closed at 12.33, up 1.07% with a trading volume of 223,000 shares and a turnover of 274 million yuan [1] - China Shenhua Energy (601088) closed at 38.50, up 0.39% with a trading volume of 238,900 shares and a turnover of 916 million yuan [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The coal mining sector experienced a net outflow of 140 million yuan from institutional investors and a net outflow of 115 million yuan from speculative funds, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 256 million yuan [2] - The capital flow for individual stocks shows that Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry (601225) had a net inflow of 47.94 million yuan from institutional investors, while it faced a net outflow of 90.76 million yuan from speculative funds [3] - China Shenhua Energy (601088) had a net inflow of 15.19 million yuan from institutional investors, but a net outflow of 36.79 million yuan from speculative funds [3]

资金流向方面，主力资金净流出2470.62万元，特大单买入0.00元，占比0.00%，卖出1554.37万元，占比 8.03%；大单买入3458.81万元，占比17.88%，卖出4375.05万元，占比22.61%。 9月29日，华阳股份盘中下跌2.11%，截至13:20，报7.44元/股，成交1.93亿元，换手率0.71%，总市值 268.40亿元。 截至9月19日，华阳股份股东户数9.10万，较上期增加1.11%；人均流通股39642股，较上期减少1.10%。 2025年1月-6月，华阳股份实现营业收入112.40亿元，同比减少7.86%；归母净利润7.83亿元，同比减少 39.75%。 分红方面，华阳股份A股上市后累计派现129.30亿元。近三年，累计派现58.14亿元。 机构持仓方面，截止2025年6月30日，华阳股份十大流通股东中，香港中央结算有限公司位居第二大流 通股东，持股2967.62万股，相比上期增加115.09万股。国泰中证煤炭ETF（515220）位居第三大流通股 东，持股2801.63万股，相比上期增加581.66万股。南方中证500ETF（510500）位居第四大流通股东， 持股26 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that thermal coal prices have rebounded above 700 yuan per ton, with a peak of 706 yuan per ton observed recently. The demand for non-electric coal is expected to be a highlight in the upcoming months [3][4] - The report emphasizes that both thermal coal and coking coal prices have reached a turning point, with expectations for further price recovery due to supply-demand dynamics and seasonal demand shifts [4][5] Summary by Sections Investment Logic - Thermal coal is categorized as a policy coal type, with prices expected to recover to long-term contract prices. The current price has surpassed the second target price, which is around 700 yuan per ton. Future expectations suggest a potential recovery to a third target price of approximately 750 yuan per ton by 2025, with a fourth target price around 860 yuan per ton [4][13] - Coking coal prices are more influenced by market dynamics, with target prices set based on the ratio of coking coal to thermal coal prices. The current ratio indicates target prices for coking coal at 1608 yuan, 1680 yuan, 1800 yuan, and 2064 yuan corresponding to thermal coal's target prices [4][13] Investment Recommendations - The report outlines a dual logic for coal stocks: cyclical elasticity and stable dividends. The current low prices of thermal and coking coal provide room for rebound, supported by supply-side policies and seasonal demand expectations [5][14] - Four main lines of coal stock selection are recommended: 1. Cyclical logic: Jin控煤业, 兖矿能源 for thermal coal; 平煤股份, 淮北矿业, 潞安环能 for metallurgical coal 2. Dividend logic: 中国神华, 中煤能源, 陕西煤业 3. Diversified aluminum elasticity: 神火股份, 电投能源 4. Growth logic: 新集能源, 广汇能源 [5][14] Market Performance - The coal index experienced a slight decline of 1.37%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.44 percentage points. The average PE ratio for the coal sector is 13.49, and the PB ratio is 1.26, ranking low among all A-share industries [8][30][31]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" indicating a positive outlook for the coal industry in the upcoming period [3]. Core Insights - The report highlights that after the pre-holiday demand fulfillment, coal prices are expected to stabilize and rise, particularly in the context of the upcoming winter heating season [3]. - The report emphasizes the expected rebound in demand for thermal coal, which is anticipated to drive prices higher, especially as the fourth quarter approaches [3]. - The report recommends undervalued stocks such as Shanxi Coking Coal, Huaibei Mining, Lu'an Environmental Energy, and Guoneng Energy, while also favoring stable high-dividend stocks like China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and China Coal Energy [3]. Summary by Sections 1. Recent Industry Policies and Dynamics - The report discusses the initiation of a special rectification action for coal mining dewatering in Shaanxi Province, aimed at improving management capabilities [8]. - It notes a decrease in production safety incidents in China, with a significant reduction in fatalities and major accidents [8]. - Russian coal production has seen a slight increase of 0.2% year-on-year for the first eight months of 2025 [8]. 2. Price Movements of Coal - As of September 26, 2025, the prices for thermal coal have shown an upward trend, with specific increases noted in various regions [9][10]. - The report indicates that the price index for thermal coal in the Qinhuangdao area has risen, reflecting a general upward trend in coal prices [9]. - Coking coal prices have shown mixed trends, with some regions experiencing price increases while others remain stable or decrease [12]. 3. International Oil Price Trends - Brent crude oil prices have increased by 5.17% to $70.13 per barrel as of September 26, 2025 [15]. - The report notes a decrease in the ratio of international oil prices to international coal prices, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics [15]. 4. Inventory and Supply Dynamics - The report highlights a slight increase in coal inventory at the four major ports in the Bohai Sea region, with total inventory reaching 22.82 million tons [18]. - Daily coal inflow and outflow at these ports have shown a decrease, indicating a tightening supply situation [18]. 5. Shipping Costs - Domestic coastal shipping costs have decreased by 11.09%, with average freight rates reported at 31.59 yuan per ton [23]. - International shipping rates have shown mixed trends, with some routes experiencing slight increases while others have decreased [23]. 6. Valuation of Key Companies - The report provides a detailed valuation table for key companies in the coal industry, highlighting their stock prices, market capitalizations, and earnings projections [28]. - Notable companies include China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and China Coal Energy, which are projected to have stable earnings growth in the coming years [28].

Investment Rating - The report rates the coal industry as "Overweight," indicating a positive outlook for the sector [3]. Core Insights - The report highlights that after the pre-holiday demand fulfillment, coal prices are expected to stabilize and rise during the peak season [3]. - It notes that the supply side remains stable due to the impact of capacity verification documents, while demand has seen a slight decline as downstream power plants stock up ahead of maintenance [3]. - The report emphasizes the expected rebound in demand during the winter heating season, which is likely to drive up thermal coal prices [3]. Summary by Sections Recent Industry Policies and Dynamics - A special rectification action plan for coal mining dewatering has been initiated in Shaanxi Province to enhance supervision and management capabilities [9]. - The report mentions a significant coal-to-natural gas project in Xinjiang, expected to be completed by the end of 2026 [5]. Price Trends - As of September 26, 2025, the prices for various grades of thermal coal have shown slight declines, while coking coal prices have varied, with some grades experiencing increases [3][10][13]. - The report indicates that the average daily consumption of coal has slightly decreased, while power plant inventories have increased [4]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The average daily coal inflow to the Bohai Rim ports has decreased slightly, while the outflow has also seen a reduction [21]. - The report notes an increase in coal inventories at the Bohai Rim ports, with a total of 22.82 million tons as of September 26, 2025 [21]. International Oil Prices - Brent crude oil prices have risen, impacting the coal market dynamics, with the price reaching $70.13 per barrel as of September 26, 2025 [17]. Shipping Costs - Domestic coastal shipping costs have decreased, with the average freight rate reported at 31.59 yuan per ton [28]. Company Valuation - The report provides a valuation table for key companies in the coal sector, highlighting their stock prices, market capitalizations, and earnings projections [33].

煤炭周报 ➢ 成本及需求支撑较强，焦炭价格节前稳中偏强运行。本周原料煤价格上涨压 缩焦企利润，但同时钢厂补库需求增加，综合影响焦企整体供应下移，节前补库 需求仍存，叠加钢厂利润尚可，铁水产量继续增长，在成本和需求支撑偏强下， 焦炭开启首轮提涨。我们预计节前焦炭价格稳中偏强运行，节后关注需求恢复及 库存变动。 ➢ 投资建议：标的方面，我们推荐以下投资主线：1）高现货比例弹性标的， 建议关注潞安环能。2）业绩稳健、成长型标的，建议关注晋控煤业、华阳股份。 3）产量恢复性增长，建议关注山煤国际。4）行业龙头业绩稳健，建议关注中国 神华、中煤能源、陕西煤业。5）受益核电增长，强α稀缺天然铀标的，建议关注 中广核矿业。 ➢ 风险提示：1）下游需求不及预期；2）煤价大幅下跌；3）政策变化风险。 重点公司盈利预测、估值与评级 | 代码 | 简称 | 股价 | | EPS（元） | | | PE（倍） | | 评级 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | （元） | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2024A ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "A" for the coal industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [1]. Core Insights - The report explores the behavior of coal expansion, highlighting the increasing trend of coal companies expanding their reserves. It emphasizes the long construction cycle for new coal mines, typically ranging from 5 to 8 years or longer. The report also discusses the advantages of conventional expansion versus acquisition expansion [2][3][4]. Summary by Sections 1. Introduction - The report is part of a series analyzing coal expansion behaviors, aiming to provide a multi-dimensional understanding of the coal industry's expansion activities [10]. 2. Conventional vs. Acquisition Expansion - New coal mine construction has a lengthy cycle, requiring various approvals and processes. Conventional expansion involves obtaining mining rights and constructing new mines, while acquisition expansion allows for quicker resource access but carries potential uncertainties [11][14][15]. 3. Exploration and Transition to Mining - The transition from exploration to mining is a critical step in coal mine development, requiring thorough geological assessments to determine resource quantities. The report outlines the different stages of exploration and their implications for resource pricing [18][20][21]. 4. Coal Mine Construction Cost Analysis - The average investment cost for new coal mines is reported at 702.89 CNY per ton, with significant variations across regions and mining methods. The report notes that costs have been rising, particularly in Shanxi and Shaanxi provinces, while Inner Mongolia shows lower costs for open-pit mining [29][40][42][46]. 5. Investment Return Model Simulation - The report simulates the profitability of new coal mines, indicating that rising construction costs and mining rights prices will likely increase production costs. It emphasizes the importance of scale in mitigating these cost increases [4][56][58]. 6. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests capturing investment opportunities during the expansion cycle, focusing on companies such as Shanxi Coal International, Jinko Coal Industry, Huayang Co., and others, as they navigate rising costs and market dynamics [4][5].

Group 1: Coal Price Trends - Coal prices have rebounded, with Qinhuangdao port 5500K thermal coal spot prices surpassing 700 CNY/ton on September 18, marking a week-on-week increase of 19 CNY/ton [1] - As of September 25, the price reached 709 CNY/ton, reflecting an increase of over 10% since the end of June [1] - Coking coal prices have also surged, with main futures rising from 725.5 CNY/ton in early June to 1234.5 CNY/ton by September 25, a rise of approximately 70% [1] Group 2: Supply Chain Influences - Policy-driven production halts and adverse weather have led to decreased coal output, compounded by reduced imports [2] - The National Energy Administration has initiated inspections of coal mines to ensure compliance with production limits, particularly in key coal-producing provinces [2][3] - In Inner Mongolia, inspections revealed that 93 out of 299 coal mines were operating beyond their approved capacities, necessitating corrective actions [3] Group 3: Production and Import Data - National statistics indicate a decline in industrial raw coal production, with July's output at 3.8 million tons (down 3.8% year-on-year) and August's at 3.9 million tons (down 3.2%) [6] - Coal imports from January to August totaled 29.99 million tons, a decrease of 12.2% compared to the previous year [6] - Northern port inventories have dropped significantly, with inventory levels at the Bohai Rim ports falling from 30.46 million tons in mid-May to 20.82 million tons by September 25 [6] Group 4: Market Outlook - The coal market is currently characterized by weak supply and demand, with supply-side factors exerting more influence on prices [6] - Analysts predict that coal prices will experience a volatile upward trend towards the end of the year, with reduced inventory levels alleviating price pressures [7] - The coal sector has seen a recent surge in stock prices, with companies like Huayang Co. and Luan Energy reporting significant gains [7]

| | | | 2025年山西省绿色矿山创建名录(第一批)矿山名单 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 序号 | 地市 | 뷰 | 矿山名称 | 矿种 | 证载规模 | | 55 | 晋中市 | 介休市 | 山西介休大佛寺煤业有限公司 | 煤炭 | 中型 | | 56 | | | 山西兴盛鸿发煤业有限公司 | 煤炭 | 中型 | | 57 | | | 山西平遥县兴盛煤化有限责任公司温家沟煤矿 | 煤炭 | 大型 | | 58 | | 平遥县 | 山西平遥县兴盛佛殿沟煤业有限公司 | 煤炭 | 中型 | | 59 | | | 山西平遥县兴盛金众煤业有限公司 | 煤炭 | 中型 | | 60 | | AND BE PART | 山西寿阳潞阳寿捷煤业有限公司 | 煤炭 | 大型 | | 61 | | | 阳煤集团寿阳开元矿业有限责任公司 | 煤炭 | 大型 | | 62 | | 昔阳真 | 山西昔阳安顺三都煤业有限公司 | 爆炭 | 大型(露天) | | 83 | 阳泉市 | 矿区 | 山西华阳集团新能股份有限公司二矿 | 煤炭 | 大型 | 图为华阳二矿和开 ...