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钢铁,“反内卷”能复刻“供给侧改革”行情吗?
和讯· 2025-07-11 10:00
Core Viewpoint - The recent announcements from the Central Financial Committee regarding the governance of low-price disorderly competition and the orderly exit of backward production capacity have reignited optimism in the steel industry, leading to price increases in various steel products and stocks [1][2][6]. Group 1: Supply-Side Reform Restart - The Central Financial Committee's sixth meeting emphasized the need to promote the orderly exit of backward production capacity, marking the beginning of a new round of supply-side reform [2][3]. - The focus of the reform includes promoting high-quality production capacity and the consolidation of the industry through mergers and acquisitions [2][3]. - A joint initiative from 33 construction companies aims to combat "involution" in the industry, indicating a collective push for transformation [2]. Group 2: Steel Industry Dynamics - The China Iron and Steel Association has been actively promoting self-discipline among major steel companies to control production and reduce inventory [3][4]. - Major steel companies like China Baowu and Ansteel have undergone multiple rounds of restructuring, contributing to an increase in industry concentration from 41.4% in 2021 to 42% in 2024 [3]. - Current data indicates that while total crude steel capacity is not excessively overbuilt, actual production often exceeds designed capacity, leading to a higher overcapacity ratio [4]. Group 3: Cautious Optimism for Steel Prices - The phenomenon of "involution" in the steel industry is characterized by price competition leading to overall profit decline and resource wastage [5]. - The challenges facing the steel market are more complex than in previous cycles, with structural changes in demand and a weak real estate market limiting the potential for a repeat of past bullish trends [7]. - Despite the current low price levels of steel, the overall market environment is better than in 2015, but significant improvements in supply-demand dynamics are unlikely, necessitating close attention to policy implementation [7].
8.65亿元主力资金今日抢筹钢铁板块
Zheng Quan Shi Bao Wang· 2025-07-11 09:42
Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.01% on July 11, with 19 out of 28 sectors experiencing gains, led by non-bank financials and steel, which increased by 2.02% and 1.93% respectively [1] - The banking and building materials sectors saw the largest declines, with decreases of 2.41% and 0.67% [1] Fund Flow Analysis - The main funds in the two markets experienced a net outflow of 6.21 billion yuan, with 7 sectors seeing net inflows [1] - The non-bank financial sector had the highest net inflow of 8.21 billion yuan, coinciding with its 2.02% increase [1] - The computer sector followed with a 1.93% increase and a net inflow of 6.20 billion yuan [1] Steel Industry Performance - The steel sector increased by 1.93% with a net inflow of 865 million yuan, comprising 44 stocks, of which 31 rose and 12 fell [2] - Among the stocks, Baogang Co. led with a net inflow of 650 million yuan, followed by Fushun Special Steel and Anyang Steel with inflows of 321 million yuan and 63 million yuan respectively [2] - The sector also had 9 stocks with net outflows exceeding 10 million yuan, with Hangang Co., Baosteel, and Xinxing Ductile Iron Pipe leading in outflows [2] Individual Stock Highlights - Baogang Co. saw a significant increase of 10.00% with a turnover rate of 4.45% and a main fund flow of 649.71 million yuan [2] - Fushun Special Steel also performed well with a 10.06% increase and a main fund flow of 320.66 million yuan [2] - Conversely, stocks like Hangang Co. and Baosteel experienced notable outflows of 81.56 million yuan and 67.70 million yuan respectively [3]
抚顺特钢: 抚顺特钢:2025年半年度业绩预亏公告
Zheng Quan Zhi Xing· 2025-07-11 08:17
Group 1 - The company, Fushun Special Steel Co., Ltd., expects a net profit attributable to shareholders for the first half of 2025 to be between -260 million yuan and -300 million yuan, representing a decrease of 214.06% to 231.60% compared to the same period last year [1][2] - The expected net profit attributable to shareholders after deducting non-recurring gains and losses is also projected to be between -260 million yuan and -300 million yuan, reflecting a decrease of 217.24% to 235.27% year-on-year [1][2] - The previous year's net profit attributable to shareholders was 227.96 million yuan, with a net profit of 221.78 million yuan after deducting non-recurring gains and losses [2] Group 2 - The main reasons for the expected loss include lower-than-expected actual production from new projects, leading to increased fixed costs per unit, and higher quality control costs due to enhanced product quality requirements [2]
抚顺特钢(600399) - 2025 Q2 - 季度业绩预告
2025-07-11 07:55
抚顺特殊钢股份有限公司 2025 年半年度业绩预亏公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证公告内容的真实、准确和完整,没 有虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏,并对其内容的真实性、准确性 和完整性承担个别及连带责任。 重要内容提示: ●抚顺特殊钢股份有限公司(以下简称"公司")预计 2025 年 半年度实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润为-26,000.00 万元至 -30,000.00 万元,与上年同期相比减少 214.06%至 231.60%。 ●公司预计2025年半年度实现归属于上市公司股东的扣除非经 常性损益的净利润为-26,000.00万元至-30,000.00万元,与上年同期 相比减少217.24%至235.27%。 证券代码:600399 证券简称:抚顺特钢 公告编号:临 2025-029 一、本期业绩预告情况 (一)业绩预告期间 2、经财务部门初步测算,公司预计2025年半年度实现归属于上 市公司股东的扣除非经常性损益的净利润为-26,000.00万元至 -30,000.00万元,与上年同期相比减少217.24%至235.27%。 3、本期业绩预告数据未经会计师事务所审计。 二、上年同期业绩情况 1 (一)归 ...
抚顺特钢:预计2025年上半年净利润亏损2.6亿元至3亿元
news flash· 2025-07-11 07:44
Core Viewpoint - Fushun Special Steel (600399) expects a significant decline in net profit for the first half of 2025, projecting a loss between 260 million to 300 million yuan, which represents a decrease of 214.06% to 231.60% compared to the same period last year [1] Financial Performance - The company anticipates a net profit attributable to shareholders, excluding non-recurring gains and losses, to also be between 260 million to 300 million yuan, reflecting a decrease of 217.24% to 235.27% year-on-year [1] - The performance forecast data has not been audited by an accounting firm [1] Market Conditions - The decline in performance is attributed to a decrease in both orders and prices for some of the company's products due to market demand [1] - New projects are gradually being put into production, but the actual output is lower than expected due to the steel industry's market environment, leading to an increase in fixed costs per unit of product [1]
铁水维持高位,成本支撑走强
Minsheng Securities· 2025-06-28 23:30
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the steel sector, highlighting specific companies within the industry [3][4]. Core Insights - The report indicates that iron water remains at a high level, with strong cost support. Although there is a long-term downward trend in iron water, the short-term decline is relatively slow. The supply of iron ore has not yet been released, solidifying the cost bottom in the short term [3][4]. - The overall production and inventory levels of steel are at low points year-on-year, with no significant supply-demand contradictions. The profitability of steel companies is expected to recover due to the optimization of crude steel supply and the gradual release of new iron ore production capacity [3][4]. Summary by Sections Price Trends - As of June 27, steel prices showed mixed trends, with rebar prices at 3,090 CNY/ton (up 20 CNY), high line prices at 3,300 CNY/ton (up 30 CNY), hot-rolled prices stable at 3,240 CNY/ton, cold-rolled prices down 20 CNY to 3,490 CNY/ton, and medium plate prices down 20 CNY to 3,280 CNY/ton [1][10][11]. Production and Inventory - The total production of five major steel varieties reached 8.81 million tons, an increase of 124,800 tons week-on-week. The apparent consumption of rebar was estimated at 2.1991 million tons, up 0.72 million tons from the previous week [2][3]. Profitability - The report estimates that the gross profit for rebar, hot-rolled, and cold-rolled steel changed by +1 CNY/ton, +5 CNY/ton, and -21 CNY/ton respectively compared to the previous week. Electric arc furnace steel saw a decrease of 6 CNY/ton in gross profit [1][3]. Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include: 1. General steel sector: Baosteel, Hualing Steel, Nanjing Steel 2. Special steel sector: Xianglou New Materials, CITIC Special Steel, Yongjin Co. 3. Pipe materials: Jiuli Special Materials, Youfa Group, Wujin Stainless Steel - Suggested to pay attention to high-temperature alloy stocks: Fushun Special Steel [3][4]. Key Company Earnings Forecasts - Baosteel (600019.SH): EPS forecast for 2024A at 0.34 CNY, PE at 19, rated as "Buy" - Hualing Steel (000932.SZ): EPS forecast for 2024A at 0.29 CNY, PE at 15, rated as "Buy" - Nanjing Steel (600282.SH): EPS forecast for 2024A at 0.37 CNY, PE at 11, rated as "Buy" [3].
供需双弱,钢价延续震荡
Minsheng Securities· 2025-06-22 04:22
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the steel sector, highlighting specific companies for investment [3]. Core Viewpoints - The steel market is experiencing weak supply and demand, leading to price fluctuations. As of June 20, 2025, the price of 20mm HRB400 rebar in Shanghai is 3070 CNY/ton, unchanged from the previous week [1][10]. - Steel profits have increased slightly, with rebar, hot-rolled, and cold-rolled steel margins changing by +6 CNY/ton, +20 CNY/ton, and -26 CNY/ton respectively [1][3]. - Steel production has risen, with a total output of 8.69 million tons for major steel products, a week-on-week increase of 96,600 tons [2][3]. Summary by Sections Price Trends - As of June 20, 2025, various steel prices show mixed trends, with rebar prices stable at 3070 CNY/ton, hot-rolled steel increasing by 40 CNY/ton to 3240 CNY/ton, and cold-rolled steel decreasing by 30 CNY/ton to 3510 CNY/ton [1][10][11]. Production and Inventory - The total production of major steel products reached 8.69 million tons, with rebar production increasing by 46,100 tons to 2.12 million tons. Total social inventory decreased by 144,300 tons to 9.12 million tons [2][3]. Profitability - The report indicates a slight increase in steel profitability, with long-process steel margins showing minor increases while short-process margins have decreased [1][3]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the following companies: - For flat steel: Baosteel, Hualing Steel, Nanjing Steel - For special steel: Xianglou New Materials, CITIC Special Steel, Yongjin Co. - For pipe materials: Jiuli Special Materials, Youfa Group, Wujin Stainless Steel - Additionally, it recommends paying attention to high-temperature alloy companies like Fushun Special Steel [3].
抚顺特钢(600399) - 抚顺特钢:关于聘任副总经理的公告
2025-06-18 09:46
穆立峰先生及陈本柱先生具备担任上市公司高级管理人员相关 的专业知识、工作经验和管理能力,任职资格符合《公司法》《上 海证券交易所股票上市规则》等法律法规和规范性文件的规定。穆 立峰先生及陈本柱先生未受过中国证监会及其他有关部门的处罚或 证券交易所惩戒,不存在《公司法》等法律法规及规范性文件规定 的不得担任公司高级管理人员的情形。 证券代码:600399 证券简称:抚顺特钢 公告编号:临 2025-028 抚顺特殊钢股份有限公司(以下简称"公司")于 2025 年 6 月 18 日召开第八届董事会第二十三次会议,审议通过了《关于聘任副 总经理的议案》。根据《公司法》等法律法规以及《公司章程》的 规定,经公司董事长兼总经理孙立国先生提名,董事会提名委员会 审核,董事会同意聘任穆立峰先生、陈本柱先生(简历附后)为公 司副总经理,任期自本次董事会审议通过之日起至第八届董事会任期 届满之日止。 抚顺特殊钢股份有限公司 关于聘任副总经理的公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证公告内容的真实、准确和完整, 没有虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏,并对其内容的真实性、准 确性和完整性承担个别及连带责任。 特此公告。 二〇二五年六月十九 ...
抚顺特钢: 抚顺特钢:关于聘任副总经理的公告
Zheng Quan Zhi Xing· 2025-06-18 09:13
Core Points - The company has appointed two new deputy general managers, Mu Lifeng and Chen Benzhu, effective from the date of the board's approval until the end of the eighth board term [1][2] - Both appointees possess the necessary professional knowledge, work experience, and management capabilities to hold senior management positions in a listed company [1] - The appointments comply with relevant laws and regulations, and neither appointee has faced penalties from the China Securities Regulatory Commission or other relevant authorities [1] Summary of Appointees - Mu Lifeng, born in June 1981, holds a bachelor's degree in Material Forming and Control Engineering from Heilongjiang University of Science and Technology and has served in various roles within the company, including as the plant manager [2] - Chen Benzhu, born in March 1977, graduated from Anhui University with a degree in Management Engineering and has held significant positions in Shagang Group before joining the company as deputy general manager [2]
钢铁周报20250608:焦煤价格反弹,关注淡季需求韧性-20250608
Minsheng Securities· 2025-06-08 03:31
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for several steel companies, including Baosteel, Hualing Steel, and Nanjing Steel, among others [3][4]. Core Insights - The rebound in coking coal prices is noteworthy, with a focus on the resilience of demand during the off-season. The report indicates that domestic steel demand is gradually entering a seasonal decline, while external demand remains uncertain due to tariff adjustments by the U.S. government [3][4]. - The report highlights that the profitability of long-process steel production has increased, with specific profit margins for rebar, hot-rolled, and cold-rolled steel showing positive changes compared to the previous week [2][3]. - The overall steel production has decreased, with a total output of 8.8 million tons for major steel varieties, reflecting a slight decline from the previous week [2][3]. Summary by Sections Price Trends - As of June 6, 2025, steel prices in Shanghai showed mixed trends, with rebar prices at 3,140 CNY/ton (up 10 CNY), hot-rolled steel at 3,260 CNY/ton (up 60 CNY), and cold-rolled steel remaining stable at 3,580 CNY/ton [1][10]. Production and Inventory - The total production of major steel varieties was 8.8 million tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.47 million tons. Rebar production specifically decreased by 70,500 tons to 2,184,600 tons [2][3]. - Total social inventory of major steel varieties decreased by 16,100 tons to 9,298,600 tons, with rebar inventory dropping by 89,700 tons [2][3]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the following companies: 1. Baosteel, Hualing Steel, Nanjing Steel in the general steel sector 2. CITIC Special Steel, Yongjin Co., and Xianglou New Materials in the special steel sector 3. Jiuli Special Materials, Wujin Stainless Steel, and Youfa Group in the pipe materials sector [3][4].