证券研究报告 | 公司动态点评 2024 年 09 月 12 日 通威股份（600438.SH） Q2 硅价下降业绩承压，一体化布局持续扩张 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------------|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|------------------------------------------|------------------| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 财务指标 | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | 买入（维持评级） | | | | | | | | | | | | 营业收入（百万元） | 142,423 | 139,104 | 116,152 | 151,776 | 182,207 | 股票信息 | | | 增长率 yoy （ % ） | 119.7 | -2.3 | -16.5 | 30 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tongwei Co., Ltd. [4] Core Views - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing an imbalance between supply and demand, leading to a decline in the company's performance. In H1 2024, the company reported revenue of 43.797 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 40.87%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of -3.129 billion yuan, marking a shift from profit to loss [2][3] - Despite the downturn, the company continues to expand its shipment scale and maintain its competitive advantage. In H1 2024, the sales volume of high-purity silicon reached 228,900 tons, a year-on-year increase of 28.82%. The company has successfully launched its 200,000-ton polysilicon project in Yunnan and is progressing with its 200,000-ton high-purity silicon project in Baotou, expected to be operational by the end of 2024 [2] - The aquaculture segment is showing improved profitability, with the feed industry experiencing growth despite a challenging market. The company has enhanced its production capabilities and expanded its product offerings, resulting in a 7.63% increase in food business sales volume and a 13.16% increase in sales revenue [2] Financial Summary - For 2024E, the company is projected to have a revenue of 121.542 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.63% from the previous year. The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be -4.005 billion yuan, with an EPS of -0.89 yuan [3][8] - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is expected to be -5.63% in 2024E, improving to 5.31% in 2025E and 7.09% in 2026E [3][8] - The projected P/E ratios for 2025 and 2026 are 23 and 16, respectively [3][8]

宁德时代曾试图以 40 亿元控股润阳股份，后被通威股份 50 亿元抢先。 文丨李梓楠 编辑丨程曼祺 我们独家获悉，宁德时代正寻求收购光伏组件及光伏电池片公司，目前正与光伏组件制造商一道新能源洽 谈收购。一道新能源成立于 2018 年，今年上半年排名全球光伏组件出货量第 8。 多位知情人士称，接洽一道前，宁德时代还曾试图以 40 亿元人民币收购另一家光伏组件制造商润阳股份 51% 的股份。润阳是全球第五大光伏电池片制造商。 最终，光伏业龙头通威股份出价 50 亿元抢先一步收购了润阳 51% 的股份，创造了中国光伏史上的并购金 额纪录。通威在 8 月中旬公告了这一交易。 光伏发电和锂电池储能协同在于，光伏发电量随天气波动，供电稳定性差，给光伏电站配套能人为调节存 电、放电节奏的储能电池是重要解决方案之一。 2022 年，宁德时代董事长曾毓群就曾透露，宁德时代在开发钙钛矿（一种可提升光伏发电效率的新型光伏电 池材料）等下一代光伏技术。去年 5 月，宁德时代又推出 "零辅源光储融合" 系统：即用光伏电站先把太阳能 转化为电能，存到锂电池里；再灵活调配输出电量，供给电网或其他大型工商设施，如工厂和商业区使用， 整套系统 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tongwei Co., Ltd. is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report indicates that silicon prices have bottomed out, leading to accelerated industry consolidation, while battery and module production continues to deepen [3][4] - The company's revenue for H1 2024 is reported at 43.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 40.9%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of -3.13 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 123.6% [3] - The report highlights a significant increase in N-type production capacity and leading technological advancements in the industry [4] Financial Performance Summary - H1 2024 revenue was 43.8 billion yuan, down 40.9% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 7.1%, down 27 percentage points [3] - The company sold 22.89 million tons of silicon materials in H1 2024, an increase of 28.8% year-on-year, despite profitability being pressured by falling prices [3] - The company’s battery sales exceeded 35 GW in H1 2024, with N-type accounting for over 60% [4] - Operating expenses increased by 27.4% in H1 2024, with a fee ratio of 10.8%, up 5.8 percentage points year-on-year [4] Production and Capacity Expansion - The company’s N-type production capacity has significantly increased, with TNC production exceeding 80% of its capacity [4] - The report mentions that the company’s 200,000-ton project in Yunnan was successfully put into production in May 2024, and another 200,000-ton project in Baotou is expected to be completed by the end of the year [3][4] Profit Forecast and Valuation - Due to intensified industry competition and declining prices, the profit forecast for the company has been revised downwards, with expected net profits for 2024-2026 at -5 billion, 3.8 billion, and 6.5 billion yuan respectively [4] - The report maintains a "Buy" rating despite the downward revision of profit forecasts [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tongwei Co., Ltd. (600438.SH) [2] Core Views - The company reported a significant decrease in revenue and net profit for H1 2024, with revenue at CNY 437.97 billion, down 40.87% year-on-year, and a net loss of CNY 31.29 billion, down 123.58% year-on-year [2] - Despite the challenges, the company is experiencing steady growth in silicon material sales and is advancing new capacity and industrial silicon projects [2] - The company is expected to launch HJT + copper interconnection solutions by the end of 2024, with TNC battery capacity projected to exceed 100GW [2] - The company has achieved a 108.36% year-on-year increase in module sales, reaching 18.67GW in H1 2024 [2] - The report anticipates a further increase in market share due to the company's leading position in silicon material production and advancements in battery technology [2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For H1 2024, the company achieved a revenue of CNY 437.97 billion, a decrease of 40.87% year-on-year, and a net profit of -CNY 31.29 billion, a decrease of 123.58% year-on-year [2] - Q2 2024 revenue was CNY 242.27 billion, down 40.66% year-on-year, with a net profit of -CNY 23.43 billion, down 150.18% year-on-year [2] - The company expects net profits for 2024-2026 to be -CNY 44.25 billion, CNY 19.97 billion, and CNY 34.14 billion respectively, reflecting significant downward adjustments [2] Production and Capacity - The company sold 228,900 tons of high-purity crystalline silicon in H1 2024, an increase of 28.82% year-on-year [2] - The company’s silicon production capacity is expected to exceed 850,000 tons by the end of 2024, with projects in Yunnan and Baotou reaching full production [2] - TNC production capacity is accelerating, with 38GW PERC capacity fully upgraded and 16GW TNC capacity launched on schedule [2] Market Position and Strategy - The company has successfully entered procurement frameworks with major domestic clients and expanded its market share in distributed markets [2] - The company is focusing on the development of "fishing and solar integration" projects, with a cumulative installed capacity of 4.39GW by the end of June 2024 [2] - The report highlights the company's ongoing innovation in technology, with TNC modules achieving a maximum research power of 743.2W [2]

Financial Status and Capital Management - The company has a strong financial position with over 34 billion yuan in cash and short-term financial assets, and a manageable debt level with short-term borrowings of 2.5 billion yuan and non-current liabilities due within one year of 4.2 billion yuan [2] - The company's debt-to-asset ratio is approximately 67%, which can be further reduced by excluding certain financial instruments [2] - The company has a robust financing capability with access to various financial tools, ensuring sufficient liquidity and financial security [2] - The company has repurchased 87,009,742 shares, accounting for 1.9327% of the total shares, with a total expenditure of 1.73 billion yuan [4] Technological Advancements and R&D - The company is actively researching and developing new battery technologies, including TOPCon, HJT, XBC, and perovskite tandem cells, to drive industry innovation [2] - The 1GW HJT pilot line has achieved an average power output of 735W, with an A-grade rate exceeding 97% and a breakage rate below 0.5% [3] - The company's HJT technology has shown a 3%-4% power generation gain over TOPCon in specific environments [3] - The company has successfully reduced non-silicon costs in the HJT pilot line by 20% through process improvements and material optimizations [4] Market and Industry Outlook - Global PV installations reached 444GW in 2023, a 76% year-on-year increase, with strong growth in Europe, the Americas, and emerging markets [5] - China's PV installations in the first half of 2024 reached 102.48GW, a 30.68% year-on-year increase, with module exports growing by 34% [5] - The company expects the PV industry to recover as supply-demand dynamics rebalance, with prices gradually rising after the current cyclical bottom [7] - The company has expanded its overseas market presence, securing orders in South Africa, Spain, and Romania, and maintaining a strong position in the BNEF Tier1 PV module manufacturer rankings [8] Operational and Strategic Updates - The company is maintaining full production capacity for polysilicon, leveraging favorable electricity prices during the wet season [5] - The company is considering overseas capacity expansion in response to increasing trade uncertainties, particularly with the US [5] - The acquisition of Runyang is progressing, with the company aiming to secure at least 51% of its shares, pending further negotiations and regulatory approvals [6] - The company plans to continue focusing on its feed business, which has shown steady growth in production and sales, contributing to overall profitability [9] Cost Management and Efficiency - The company has implemented cost-saving measures across its operations, including the use of silver-coated copper paste and low-indium targets in the HJT pilot line [4] - The company's TOPCon non-silicon costs have decreased by nearly 20% in the first half of 2024, maintaining a leading position in the industry [8] - The company is closely monitoring market conditions and internal cost structures to optimize production and manage inventory levels effectively [6]

股票代码：600438 股票简称：通威股份 公告编号：2024-075 债券代码：110085 债券简称：通 22 转债 通威股份有限公司 关于对外提供担保的进展公告 公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重 大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： 被担保人名称： 2024 年 8 月 1 日—2024 年 8 月 31 日期间（以下简称"本次期间"）公司担保事项被 担保人均为非上市公司关联人。被担保人如下：公司下属 5 家全资子公司：内蒙古通 威硅能源有限公司、通威太阳能（南通）有限公司、前江通威有限责任公司、越南通威 有限责任公司、和平通威有限责任公司；公司下属 3 家控股子公司：四川永祥能源科 技有限公司、越南天邦饲料有限公司、通威（海南）水产食品有限公司；公司 1 家合营 公司：通威拜欧玛（无锡）生物科技有限公司；公司 2 家联营公司：贵港史记生物技术 有限公司、湖北史记种猪畜牧有限公司；公司部分客户。 本次期间担保金额及已实际为其提供的担保余额： 本次期间，公司及下属子公司相互提供担保金额为 19.51 亿元；公司及子公司为合 营、联营 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tongwei Co., Ltd. is "Recommended" [3][10]. Core Views - The company's profitability is under short-term pressure, primarily due to a significant decline in the photovoltaic sector, leading to substantial losses in the first half of 2024. The revenue decreased by 40.87% year-on-year to CNY 437.97 billion, with a net loss attributable to shareholders of CNY 31.29 billion, a decrease of 123.58% year-on-year [5][6]. - Despite the challenges, the company is aggressively expanding its production capacity in polysilicon and industrial silicon, with a projected polysilicon capacity exceeding 850,000 tons by the end of 2024 [6][8]. - The company has achieved significant growth in its solar cell and module sales, with module sales increasing by 108.36% year-on-year to 18.67 GW in the first half of 2024 [6][8]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2024, the company reported a revenue of CNY 437.97 billion, down 40.87% year-on-year. The net profit attributable to shareholders was a loss of CNY 31.29 billion, a decrease of 123.58% year-on-year. The second quarter saw a revenue of CNY 242.27 billion, also down 40.66% year-on-year, with a net loss of CNY 23.43 billion, a decrease of 150.18% year-on-year [5][6]. Business Segments - The agricultural and animal husbandry segment remained stable, with a revenue decline of approximately 6% but an increase in gross margin by 0.97 percentage points to 9.16%. However, the photovoltaic segment faced significant challenges due to oversupply, leading to a sharp decline in product prices and gross margins [6][8]. - The company sold 228,900 tons of polysilicon in the first half of 2024, an increase of 28.82% year-on-year. The Yunnan 200,000-ton polysilicon project was successfully put into production in May 2024 [6][8]. Capacity Expansion and Technology Innovation - The company is actively advancing its TOPCon and heterojunction (HJT) battery technology innovations, with plans to exceed 100 GW of TOPCon battery capacity by the end of 2024. The company has also completed the transformation of its 38 GW PERC capacity and is expanding into key overseas markets [6][8]. - The company aims to strengthen its cost advantages in polysilicon production through new industrial silicon projects in Inner Mongolia and Sichuan, expected to be operational by the end of 2024 [6][8]. Future Outlook - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2024-2026, expecting net profits of CNY -48.64 billion, CNY 12.11 billion, and CNY 37.82 billion, respectively. The dynamic PE ratios are projected to be -16.9, 67.7, and 21.7 times [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [2] Core Views - The company experienced significant revenue decline in H1 2024, with a revenue of 43.797 billion yuan, down 40.87% year-on-year, and a net loss attributable to shareholders of 3.129 billion yuan, down 123.58% year-on-year [1] - The company is expanding its production capacity in high-purity silicon and battery segments, with a projected increase in high-purity silicon capacity to 800,000 to 1,000,000 tons by 2026 [1] - The acquisition of Runyang is expected to enhance the company's market share in the silicon sector and improve its overseas production layout [1] Financial Performance Summary - For H1 2024, the company reported a revenue of 43.797 billion yuan, a net loss of 3.129 billion yuan, and a non-recurring net loss of 3.178 billion yuan [1] - The company anticipates revenues of 110.255 billion yuan, 141.892 billion yuan, and 168.119 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with net profits projected at -3.951 billion yuan, 3.754 billion yuan, and 6.613 billion yuan for the same years [2][6] - The company's gross margin is expected to improve from 5.07% in 2024 to 11.97% in 2026 [6] Production and Market Position - The company achieved a high-purity silicon sales volume of 228,900 tons in H1 2024, a year-on-year increase of 28.82%, maintaining a domestic market share of over 25% [1] - The company has transformed its entire 38GW PERC capacity to N-type, with TNC battery production expected to exceed 100GW by the end of 2024 [1] - Component sales reached 18.67GW in H1 2024, a year-on-year increase of 108.36%, with ongoing efforts to expand into international markets [1]

昨天有一些读者不理解黑神话这种单机游戏，我为什么能知道全世界其他玩家的进度，因为它不是纯单机，它玩的时候需要登陆steam、epic、wegame这 种平台来读取之前的进度，同时上传自己的游戏数据，所以平台上有所有玩家的进度统计。 这其实是一种很好的防盗版手段，以前的单机游戏可以脱网玩，盗版随便破解，所以现在单机游戏代码里写入了大量需要联网的互动，盗版就无从下手 了。 这个周末新闻不少，我帮大家捋捋有价值的信息。 1、周五彭博社传中国政府正在考虑调降存量房贷的利率，可信度高，因为有降利率的客观需求也有降利率的客观条件。受利好刺激，周五房地产板块一 度大涨7%。有网友说降存量房贷利率和地产股没关系，不是这样的，没有直接利好，但有间接利好。把视野拉高一点，降存量房贷利率对全社会都是利 好，除了银行和储户要让利。 有个相关数据，2季度个人住房贷款余额37.79万亿，同比下降2.1%，利率不降的话老百姓一有钱就提前还贷。 2、机构统计的中国百城房屋价格指数显示，8月份二手房环比下跌0.71%，同比下跌6.9%，已经连续28个月下跌。另外全国50城租金环比下跌0.2%，同比 下跌2.13%。这个是机构统计的，大概每个月 ...