基础化工 基础化工 2026 年 01 月 28 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -14% 0% 14% 29% 43% 58% 2025-02 2025-06 2025-10 基础化工 沪深300 相关研究报告 《降碳趋势下龙头企业有望充分受 益，氯化钾市场格局稳中偏强—行业 周报》-2026.1.25 《涤纶长丝行业新一轮减产开启，草 铵膦供需向好、价格上涨—行业周报》 -2026.1.18 《农药出口退税率取消或下调，行业 反内卷持续深化—农药行业点评报 告》-2026.1.17 水俣公约等多重因素加快氯碱落后产能退出，行业有 望迎来历史性新变化 ——行业点评报告 | 金益腾（分析师） | 宋梓荣（分析师） | | --- | --- | | jinyiteng@kysec.cn | songzirong@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790520020002 | 证书编号：S0790525070002 | 事件：生态环境部强调要加快推动聚氯乙烯行业无汞化转型 据生态环境部 1 月 26 日消息，生态环境部固体废物与化学品司有关负责同志就 《关于发布含汞电池等 12 种 ...

Group 1 - The chemical raw materials sector increased by 3.58% on January 28, with Satellite Chemical leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4151.24, up 0.27%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14342.9, up 0.09% [1] - Key stocks in the chemical raw materials sector showed significant price increases, with Satellite Chemical rising by 8.86% to a closing price of 24.21 [1] Group 2 - The chemical raw materials sector experienced a net inflow of 870 million yuan from main funds, while retail investors saw a net outflow of 673 million yuan [2] - Major stocks like Baofeng Energy and Satellite Chemical had notable net inflows from main funds, with Baofeng Energy receiving 223 million yuan [3] - Retail investors showed significant outflows in several stocks, including Baofeng Energy and Satellite Chemical, indicating a shift in investor sentiment [3]

化工板块盘中持续走高，染料、聚氨酯方向领涨，和邦生物封涨停，此前锦鸡股份、沧州大化、百川股 份、中农联合等涨停，卫星化学、氯碱化工、华峰化学、恒逸石化、桐昆股份跟涨。 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [5] Core Viewpoints - The PVC industry is expected to undergo continuous revaluation due to its high energy consumption and carbon emissions, particularly as China approaches its carbon peak during the 14th Five-Year Plan. The supply side may face strict controls, leading to potential reductions in production quotas. The demand for PVC in developing regions such as Africa and Latin America is anticipated to drive growth, despite the challenges posed by domestic production constraints [2][7] - The petrochemical industry is experiencing an upward trend in profitability, driven by significant price increases in key products such as butadiene rubber, PX, PTA, styrene, and ethylene glycol. The market's expectations for improved demand in 2026 are contributing to this positive outlook, with potential adjustments in operational strategies by leading companies likely to reshape supply and demand dynamics [7] Summary by Relevant Sections Investment Suggestions and Targets - The report recommends several companies across various sub-sectors, including: - MDI leader: Wanhua Chemical (600309, Buy) - PVC-related companies: Zhongtai Chemical (002092, Not Rated), Xinjiang Tianye (600075, Not Rated), Chlor-alkali Chemical (600618, Not Rated), Tianyuan Co., Ltd. (002386, Not Rated) - Refining sector leaders: Sinopec (600028, Buy), Rongsheng Petrochemical (002493, Buy), Hengli Petrochemical (600346, Buy) - Phosphate chemical companies benefiting from energy storage growth: Chuanheng Co., Ltd. (002895, Not Rated), Yuntianhua (600096, Not Rated) - Oxalic acid sector: Hualu Hengsheng (600426, Buy), Huayi Group (600623, Buy), Wankai New Materials (301216, Buy) [3]

Core Viewpoint - The chemical industry is experiencing a collective shift in business strategies driven by multiple factors, leading to a recovery in industry prosperity [1] Group 1: Industry Trends - The long-standing focus on market share in China's chemical industry is being transformed, with companies now facing increased barriers to entry due to supply-side reforms, environmental checks, and dual carbon goals [1] - Internal policy adjustments and external anti-dumping investigations are signaling a necessary change in the expectations surrounding market share [2] Group 2: Business Strategy Shifts - Companies are moving towards sacrificing existing market share to enhance short-term return rates, as merely halting expansion is no longer sufficient to address inventory and excess capacity [2] - The change in business strategies is primarily driven by shifts in the mindset of entrepreneurs and management, marking a significant departure from previous industry recovery patterns [2] Group 3: Selection Criteria for Investment - The preferred selection criteria for the industry include the strength of expansion constraints and the depth of leading companies' advantages, with stronger constraints leading to lower expectations for market share-driven growth [3] - The depth of leading companies' advantages not only constrains industry expansion but also determines the potential recovery in industry return rates [3] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - Recommended investment opportunities include: - MDI: Wanhua Chemical (600309) - Petrochemicals: Sinopec (600028), Rongsheng Petrochemical (002493), Hengli Petrochemical (600346) - Phosphate Chemicals: Chuanheng Shares (002895), Yuntianhua (600096), Xingfa Group (600141) - PVC: Zhongtai Chemical (002092), Xinjiang Tianye (600075), Chlor-alkali Chemical (600618), Tianyuan Shares (002386) - Polyester Bottle Chips: Wankai New Materials (301216) [4]

Group 1 - Meibang Technology focuses on the research and production of epoxy propane and downstream polyether polyols, benefiting from a clean production process and stable capacity, which enhances business profitability when epoxy propane prices rise [1][29] - Hongqiang Co., Ltd. produces concrete additives that utilize epoxy propane-derived polyether polyols, allowing for cost transfer to customers when prices rise, while also benefiting from the green building certification and infrastructure investment cycles [2][30] - Weiyuan Co., Ltd. has a large capacity for epoxy propane and integrates its production with other chemicals, which helps mitigate raw material price fluctuations and enhances profitability [3][31] Group 2 - Hongbaoli is a leading supplier of polyurethane insulation materials, with its core product being rigid polyether polyols, directly linked to epoxy propane prices, allowing for price adjustments through long-term agreements [4][32] - Yinuowei relies heavily on epoxy propane for its polyurethane products, maintaining stable relationships with downstream customers and benefiting from the rapid expansion of the new energy sector [5][33] - Yida Co., Ltd. has developed its own epoxy propane production technology and offers a range of solvents, benefiting from the green development policies and enhancing cost control through efficient procurement [6][34] Group 3 - Bohai Chemical leverages its location in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei petrochemical cluster to enhance its epoxy propane production, benefiting from regional supply advantages and low-carbon transformation initiatives [7][35] - China Chemical, as a state-owned enterprise, benefits from the rising demand for engineering services related to epoxy propane production, supported by its global project experience and technological capabilities [8][36] - Weixing Chemical has a complete C3 industrial chain layout, with significant cost advantages in epoxy propane production, and is actively expanding into new energy materials [9][36] Group 4 - Huaitai Co. integrates its chemical production with green paper-making concepts, enhancing profitability through the rising prices of epoxy propane while maintaining a focus on sustainable practices [10][38] - Kent Catalysts specializes in catalysts for epoxy propane production, benefiting from the industry's growth and focusing on high-end catalyst development for new energy applications [11][39] - Dongfang Shenghong has a vertically integrated "refining-polyester" chain, leveraging the high demand for epoxy propane to enhance profitability while expanding into photovoltaic materials [12][40]

Group 1: Market Performance - The chemical raw materials sector increased by 2.68% compared to the previous trading day, with Jiangtian Chemical leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4113.65, down 0.01%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14155.63, down 0.97% [1] Group 2: Individual Stock Performance - Jiangtian Chemical (300927) closed at 30.31, up 19.99% with a trading volume of 195,300 shares and a transaction value of 564 million [1] - Dier Chemical (920304) closed at 15.32, up 10.45% with a trading volume of 200,600 shares [1] - Weiyuan Co. (600955) closed at 20.59, up 9.99% with a trading volume of 227,900 shares [1] - Zhongyida (600610) closed at 11.37, up 9.96% with a trading volume of 182,160 shares [1] - Lushi Chemical (000830) closed at 19.96, up 8.89% with a trading volume of 666,900 shares [1] - Xinjiang Tianye (600075) closed at 6.26, up 8.12% with a trading volume of 1,176,800 shares [1] - Satellite Chemical (002648) closed at 20.79, up 6.67% with a trading volume of 1,382,800 shares [1] - Hydrogen Alkali Chemical (600618) closed at 14.04, up 5.17% with a trading volume of 494,000 shares [1] - Boyuan Chemical (000683) closed at 8.59, up 5.14% with a trading volume of 1,221,600 shares [1] - Zhongtai Chemical (002092) closed at 6.13, up 4.97% with a trading volume of 1,834,300 shares [1] Group 3: Capital Flow - The chemical raw materials sector saw a net inflow of 139 million from main funds, while retail funds experienced a net outflow of 60.52 million [2] - The main funds' net inflow for Zhongyida (600610) was 267 million, accounting for 29.40% of its trading volume [3] - Jiangtian Chemical (300927) had a main fund net inflow of 150 million, representing 26.57% of its trading volume [3] - Hydrogen Alkali Chemical (600618) had a main fund net inflow of 82.68 million, accounting for 12.24% of its trading volume [3] - Weiyuan Co. (600955) had a main fund net inflow of 73.73 million, representing 16.07% of its trading volume [3]

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the trends and statistics in China's soda ash (sodium carbonate) industry, indicating a slight decline in production in November 2025 while showing an overall growth in cumulative production for the year [1]. Group 1: Industry Overview - In November 2025, China's soda ash production reached 3.24 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 0.5% [1]. - From January to November 2025, the cumulative production of soda ash in China was 36.256 million tons, marking a cumulative growth of 4.7% compared to the previous year [1]. Group 2: Companies Involved - Listed companies in the soda ash sector include Yuanxing Energy (000683), Sanyou Chemical (600409), Shandong Haohua (000822), Shuanghuan Technology (000707), Chlor-alkali Chemical (600618), Jinjing Technology (600586), Hubei Yihua (000422), Yuntu Holdings (002539), and Hebang Biotechnology (603077) [1]. Group 3: Research and Analysis - The report is based on data from the National Bureau of Statistics and is compiled by Zhiyan Consulting, a leading industry consulting firm in China, which specializes in providing in-depth industry research reports and strategic analysis [1].

Core Viewpoint - The Yutai Economic Development Zone in Shandong Province has transformed from a traditional industrial cluster to a green benchmark, achieving provincial-level green industrial park status by October 2025, emphasizing high-quality industrial development through a green and circular economy [1]. Group 1: Circular Economy and Industrial Upgrading - The park has established a "coal-electricity-chemical" integrated circular industrial chain, utilizing resources efficiently and achieving a closed-loop ecosystem [2]. - In 2024, the park expanded to 18.28 square kilometers, with industrial water reuse rates reaching 97%, solid waste utilization at 99%, and recycled water usage increasing to 47% [2]. - The park has developed specialized industrial clusters in chlor-alkali chemicals, coal chemicals, and biomedicine, with a steady increase in industrial output value from large-scale enterprises by 2025 [2]. Group 2: Innovation and Technology - An investment of 5.5 billion yuan in the high-end chemical new materials project aims to break foreign technology monopolies and address critical challenges in production [3]. - The park focuses on "specialized, refined, distinctive, and innovative" industries, with high-tech industry output accounting for 62.36% of total industrial output by the end of 2025, significantly exceeding the 30% benchmark [3]. - The park promotes green technological upgrades in traditional industries, implementing a project to encourage low-carbon technologies, resulting in a continuous decrease in carbon emissions per unit of industrial added value from 2022 to 2025 [3]. Group 3: Environmental Protection and Sustainability - The park has established an integrated smart environmental protection platform, utilizing big data and IoT for comprehensive monitoring and pollution control [4]. - By 2025, the clean energy usage rate in the park is expected to reach 76.58%, with renewable energy usage around 6.4% [4]. - A wastewater treatment plant with a capacity of 20,000 cubic meters per day has been built, ensuring zero wastewater discharge for certain enterprises and strict adherence to environmental standards [4].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [5] Core Viewpoints - The adjustment of export tax rebate policies does not alter the competitive advantage of China's chemical industry. The cancellation of export tax rebates for various chemical products is expected to increase export costs, reflecting China's energy and waste treatment capabilities. Despite theoretical concerns about competitiveness, high energy-consuming products like PVC lack global expansion capacity, and the price increase due to VAT will not significantly change competitive dynamics [2][7] - Market rumors do not change the profit recovery opportunities in the industry. Reports of regulatory discussions regarding monopolistic risks have led to stock price corrections for leading chemical companies. However, the industry is still in a self-rescue phase, with production cuts not aimed at achieving monopolistic profits but rather at facilitating recovery from previous losses [2][7] Investment Recommendations and Targets - Recommended leading companies in the refining industry include Sinopec (600028, Buy), Rongsheng Petrochemical (002493, Buy), and Hengli Petrochemical (600346, Buy). The report also highlights recovery opportunities in various chemical sub-industries, such as MDI leader Wanhua Chemical (600309, Buy) and PVC-related companies like Zhongtai Chemical (002092, Not Rated), Xinjiang Tianye (600075, Not Rated), Chlor-alkali Chemical (600618, Not Rated), and Tianyuan Co., Ltd. (002386, Not Rated). In the phosphoric chemical sector, companies like Chuanheng Co., Ltd. (002895, Not Rated) and Yuntianhua (600096, Not Rated) are noted for their growth potential driven by rapid energy storage growth. In the oxalic acid sector, attention is drawn to Hualu Hengsheng (600426, Buy), Huayi Group (600623, Buy), and Wankai New Materials (301216, Buy) [3]