Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking it as the first recommendation [9]. Core Insights - The company, a leader in the chlor-alkali industry, has effectively reduced losses through cost control and the contribution of new methanol projects, leading to a significant reduction in losses for 2025 [5][9]. - The company achieved a total revenue of 28.696 billion yuan in 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 4.74%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was -289 million yuan, showing a 70.43% improvement compared to the previous year [4][9]. - The company has implemented various cost-saving measures, including the use of low-calorific coal, recycled salt, and domestic ion membranes, which have improved the gross margin of chlor-alkali products by 6.74 percentage points to 61.45% [5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2025, the company reported a revenue of 7.450 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 2.36% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2.19% [4]. - The operating cash flow for 2025 was 3.249 billion yuan, a decrease of 44.77% year-on-year, primarily due to lower sales prices of key products [6]. Project Development - The methanol production project commenced full operations in June 2025, contributing 598 million yuan in revenue with a gross margin of 25.05%, becoming a new profit growth point [5][8]. - The company is advancing its resource utilization projects and optimizing its industrial layout, including a complete circular economy chain from coal to textiles [8]. Profit Forecast - The company is expected to see a recovery in profitability with projected net profits of 591 million yuan, 812 million yuan, and 1.049 billion yuan for 2026, 2027, and 2028 respectively [9][11]. - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio (PE) of 31.9, 23.2, and 18.0 for the years 2026, 2027, and 2028 respectively [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is tense, with Trump warning Iran and the Houthi rebels launching missile attacks on Israel, which may lead to further escalation of the conflict and push up oil prices. The oil price is expected to fluctuate, and the overall center of gravity is moving upward [1]. - High - and low - sulfur fuel oils are supported by the cost of crude oil, and the supply is actually tightening. They are expected to maintain high - level operation, but the risk of a short - term sharp decline in oil prices after the end of the conflict should be noted [2]. - The demand for asphalt is gradually recovering, and the price is expected to be strong. However, the risk of a short - term sharp decline in oil prices after the end of the conflict should be noted, and its price volatility is expected to be smaller than that of other oil products [2]. - The polyester industry chain follows the cost - end fluctuations. The PX has many overhauls, the PTA operating load is at a high level, and the coal - based and oil - based production of ethylene glycol is differentiated. The downstream polyester yarn sales are sluggish [3]. - The natural rubber inventory is slightly increasing, and the butadiene rubber is oscillating strongly. The cash trends of natural rubber and butadiene are differentiated [5]. - The methanol inventory is starting to decline, but the supply recovery of Iranian plants may suppress price increases, and the market is prone to large fluctuations [5]. - The polyolefin market is de - stocking, but the short - term geopolitical risk pushes up the cost, which may hinder the growth of subsequent demand [6]. - The PVC export will supplement the domestic demand to a certain extent, and the short - selling power has not weakened. Attention should be paid to the fulfillment of export orders and the Middle East situation [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Monday, the WTI May contract closed up $3.24 to $102.88 per barrel, a 3.25% increase; the Brent May contract closed up $0.21 to $112.78 per barrel, a 0.19% increase; the SC2605 closed at 759.9 yuan per barrel, down 3.1 yuan per barrel, a 0.41% decrease. Geopolitical tensions may further push up oil prices, and the oil price is expected to oscillate [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: The main fuel oil contract FU2605 rose 4.05% to 4,619 yuan per ton, and the low - sulfur fuel oil contract LU2605 rose 3.44% to 5,285 yuan per ton. Affected by factors such as the rise in diesel cracking and freight, the supply is tightening, and it is expected to maintain high - level operation [2]. - **Asphalt**: The main asphalt contract BU2606 rose 0.02% to 4,513 yuan per ton. The demand is gradually recovering, and the price is expected to be strong [2]. - **Polyester**: The TA605 closed at 6,768 yuan per ton, down 1.57%; the EG2605 closed at 5,359 yuan per ton, up 1.52%. The industry chain is affected by the cost and device changes, and the market is waiting for the development of the situation [3]. - **Rubber**: The main natural rubber contract RU2605 rose 30 yuan per ton to 16,540 yuan per ton, and the NR main contract rose 110 yuan per ton to 13,845 yuan per ton. The natural rubber inventory is slightly increasing, and the butadiene rubber is oscillating strongly [5]. - **Methanol**: The inventory is starting to decline, but the supply recovery of Iranian plants may suppress price increases, and the market is prone to large fluctuations [5]. - **Polyolefins**: The upstream device overhauls and production cuts are more, and the demand is gradually released in spring. However, the short - term geopolitical risk pushes up the cost, which may hinder the growth of subsequent demand [6]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: The PVC export will supplement the domestic demand to a certain extent, and the short - selling power has not weakened. Attention should be paid to the fulfillment of export orders and the Middle East situation [6]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - A table shows the basis data of various energy - chemical products on March 30, 2026, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes, as well as the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data [7]. 3.3 Market News - Trump warned Iran that unless the Strait of Hormuz is reopened, the US will destroy its oil wells, power plants, and Kharg Island. He also said that the response to Iran's attack on an Israeli refinery "will come soon" [9]. - US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that as more ships pass through the Strait of Hormuz, the global oil market supply is sufficient, and the US will regain control of the Strait of Hormuz over time [9]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: There are multiple charts showing the closing prices of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2022 to 2026, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [11][14][17][20][23][27][28] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: There are charts showing the basis of main contracts of various energy - chemical products, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, etc. [29][30][33][35] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: There are charts showing the spreads between different contracts of various energy - chemical products, such as fuel oil, PTA, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, natural rubber, etc. [38][40][44][47][48][51] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: There are charts showing the spreads and ratios between different varieties of energy - chemical products, such as crude oil internal and external spreads, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, fuel oil/asphalt ratio, etc. [54][56][57][59] - **4.5 Production Profits**: There are charts showing the production profits of various energy - chemical products, such as LLDPE, PP, PTA processing fees, and ethylene - based ethylene glycol cash flow [61][63]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company recorded recurring consolidated EBITDA of $109 million in Q4 2025, and for the full year, it was $557 million, representing a 49% decrease compared to 2024 [10][22]. - Operating cash generation was approximately $13 million in Q4, while operating cash consumption for the year was $246 million, reflecting lower EBITDA [11][26]. - Corporate cash at the end of Q4 2025 totaled approximately $2.1 billion, with corporate leverage at approximately 14.74x [12][28]. Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Brazil, recurring EBITDA for the segment was $698 million in 2025, a 22% decrease from 2024, primarily due to lower resin and chemical sales volumes and lower average spreads [17]. - The U.S. and Europe segment posted a recurring EBITDA of -$52 million for the year, impacted by lower Polypropylene and Polyethylene spreads [19]. - In Mexico, Polyethylene utilization reached 85% in Q4 2025, an increase of 38 percentage points from Q3, but the annual utilization was 64%, a reduction of 14 percentage points compared to 2024 [20][21]. Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Domestic resin demand in Brazil declined by approximately 2% in 2025 after a 60% growth in 2024, reflecting a cautious approach from downstream converters amid global uncertainties [14]. - Global operating rates for Polyethylene and Polypropylene reached historically low levels of 79% and 74%, respectively, due to reduced demand [29]. - The geopolitical environment, particularly tensions in the Middle East, has led to increased volatility in commodity prices, impacting the petrochemical supply chain [33][36]. Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to reorganize its capital structure to ensure business continuity and maintain safety as a non-negotiable value [44][45]. - Initiatives for resilience and financial soundness will focus on operational optimizations and strategic initiatives to mitigate the impact of the downturn cycle [45][46]. - The transformation plan includes expanding the gas and renewable base in the feedstock profile to enhance competitiveness and sustainability [46][50]. Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged the challenging year of 2025 due to geopolitical conflicts and tariff wars, which compressed industry margins and affected profitability [53][54]. - The company is preparing for various scenarios regarding the ongoing geopolitical conflicts and their potential impacts on costs and competitive dynamics [62][82]. - Management emphasized the importance of preserving liquidity and assessing risks and opportunities in the current volatile environment [62][63]. Other Important Information - The company has made significant progress in addressing the Alagoas geological event, with a total provision of approximately BRL 18 billion, of which BRL 13.9 billion has been disbursed [25][59]. - The company implemented over 70 action plans across various fronts to minimize the adverse effects of the downturn cycle and preserve liquidity [31]. Q&A Session Summary Question: How has the global industry behaved in the current context? - Management noted that Asian petrochemical companies have lower naphtha inventories compared to Braskem, which started the conflict with a larger supply of feedstock [68][70]. Question: What are the expected effects of the war on EBITDA? - Management refrained from providing formal guidance but indicated that historical EBITDA trends could inform future expectations [66][79]. Question: How is the company planning to finance its CapEx without affecting its capital structure? - Management confirmed that the restructuring plan includes necessary resources for essential projects, ensuring the continuity of operations [95][96].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company recorded recurring consolidated EBITDA of $109 million in Q4 2025, and for the full year, it was $557 million, representing a 49% decrease compared to 2024 [10][22] - Operating cash generation was approximately $13 million in Q4, while operating cash consumption for the year was $246 million, reflecting lower EBITDA [11][12] - Corporate cash at the end of Q4 2025 totaled approximately $2.1 billion, with corporate leverage at approximately 14.74x [12][28] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Brazil, recurring EBITDA for the segment was $698 million in 2025, a 22% decrease from 2024, primarily due to lower resin and chemical sales volumes and lower average spreads [17] - The U.S. and Europe segment posted a recurring EBITDA of negative $52 million for the year, impacted by lower polypropylene and polyethylene spreads [19] - In Mexico, polyethylene utilization in Q4 reached 85%, an increase of 38 percentage points from Q3, but the annual utilization was 64%, a 14 percentage point reduction compared to 2024 [20][21] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The global petrochemical industry faced a prolonged down cycle, with international petrochemical spreads below historical averages, leading to a decline in profitability and liquidity [7] - Domestic resin demand in Brazil declined by approximately 2% in 2025, following a 60% growth in 2024, as converters optimized inventory levels amid macroeconomic uncertainties [14] - Global operating rates for polyethylene and polypropylene reached historically low levels of 79% and 74%, respectively, due to reduced demand [29] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to reorganize its capital structure to ensure business continuity and maintain safety as a non-negotiable value [44][45] - Initiatives for resilience and financial soundness will focus on operational optimizations, strategic initiatives, and defending the Brazilian chemical industry [45][46] - The transformation plan includes expanding the gas and renewable base in the feedstock profile to enhance competitiveness and sustainability [46][50] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management highlighted the challenges of 2025, including geopolitical conflicts and tariff wars, which affected global supply and demand imbalances [53][54] - The company is monitoring geopolitical developments and their potential effects on costs and competitive dynamics while maintaining discipline in commercial and financial management [43] - Despite the instability, management sees potential value capture in certain regions, particularly in the Americas, due to the ongoing geopolitical situation [62] Other Important Information - The company has made significant progress in the Alagoas geological event, with a total provision of approximately BRL 18 billion, of which BRL 13.9 billion has been disbursed [25][59] - The company implemented over 70 action plans across various fronts to minimize the adverse effects of the downturn cycle and preserve liquidity [31] Q&A Session Summary Question: How has the global industry behaved in the current context? - Management noted that Asian petrochemical powers have lower naphtha inventories, and Braskem started the war with a larger supply of feedstock than competitors [68][69] Question: What are the expected effects of the war on EBITDA? - Management refrained from providing formal guidance but indicated that historical EBITDA trends could inform future expectations [66][80] Question: How is the company planning to finance its CapEx without affecting its capital structure? - Management confirmed that resources for essential projects have been earmarked and included in the capital structure reorganization plan [97] Question: What is the status of the anti-dumping process for polyethylene in Brazil? - Management stated that they will appeal a decision not to consider a detailed study recommending anti-dumping measures, believing the case is strong [88][89] Question: What is the likelihood of a change in control for the company? - Management clarified that Braskem is not part of the discussions regarding changes in control and will notify the market if material information arises [112][114]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the market conditions of various energy and chemical products on March 27, 2026, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefins, and PVC. All products are rated as "oscillating", and the geopolitical situation is the main factor affecting the market [1][3][5][6][7] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Thursday, oil prices moved higher. WTI April contract closed up $4.16 to $94.48 per barrel, a 4.61% increase. Brent May contract closed up $5.79 to $108.01 per barrel, a 5.66% increase. SC2605 closed at 744.6 yuan per barrel, up 16.2 yuan per barrel, a 2.22% increase. Market sentiment towards the geopolitical situation is cautious. The supply disruption in the Strait of Hormuz could lead to a loss of 13 - 14 million barrels of oil per day, but the duration is uncertain [1] - **Fuel Oil**: On Thursday, the main fuel oil contract FU2605 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed down 0.18% at 4,393 yuan per ton, and the low - sulfur fuel oil contract LU2605 closed down 1.34% at 5,066 yuan per ton. The fundamentals of both low - sulfur and high - sulfur fuel oil markets remain strong. The short - term crack spreads of high and low - sulfur fuel oil are expected to remain high [3] - **Asphalt**: On Thursday, the main asphalt contract BU2606 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed up 4.17% at 4,543 yuan per ton. The expected domestic asphalt production in April 2026 is 1.527 million tons, a decrease of 22.4% month - on - month and 33.3% year - on - year. The short - term asphalt price is expected to remain high [3][5] - **Polyester**: TA605 closed at 6,778 yuan per ton, up 2.82%. EG2605 closed at 5,058 yuan per ton, up 0.44%. PX futures main contract 605 closed at 9,774 yuan per ton, up 2.86%. The short - term polyester price will fluctuate widely following the cost [5] - **Rubber**: On Thursday, the main Shanghai rubber contract RU2605 rose 30 yuan per ton to 16,460 yuan per ton. The spread between natural rubber and synthetic rubber may continue to widen [5][6] - **Methanol**: The inventory has started to decline. The supply from Iranian plants may gradually recover, which may suppress the price increase, but the Iranian situation is unclear [6] - **Polyolefins**: The market is in a de - stocking rhythm, but the short - term geopolitical risk pushes up the cost, compressing the downstream profit margin, and the subsequent demand growth may be hindered [6][7] - **PVC**: The geopolitical situation has a greater impact on the ethylene - based method, while the profit of the calcium carbide - based method has strengthened rapidly. The supply is expected to remain high, and the demand will gradually recover, maintaining a de - stocking rhythm [7] Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, and other data of various energy and chemical products on March 26 and 25, 2026, including crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, methanol, urea, linear low - density polyethylene, polypropylene, etc. [8] Market News - Market sentiment towards the geopolitical situation is cautious. The negotiation process between the US and Iran is difficult. If the Strait of Hormuz is blocked for a long time, it may lead to a loss of 13 - 14 million barrels of oil per day. The export volume of Yanbu Port and Fujairah Port has rebounded recently [10] Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Price**: The report shows the historical closing price charts of the main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2022 to 2026, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [12][13][14][15][17][18][21][22][24][26][28] - **Main Contract Basis**: It presents the historical basis charts of the main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2022 to 2026, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, etc. [30][32][34][36][39][40][41] - **Inter - period Contract Spread**: It shows the historical spread charts of different contracts of various energy and chemical products, including fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, natural rubber, etc. [44][46][49][52][53][56][58] - **Inter - variety Spread**: It provides the historical spread and ratio charts between different varieties of energy and chemical products, such as crude oil internal and external markets, fuel oil high - low sulfur, fuel oil/asphalt, BU/SC, ethylene glycol - PTA, PP - LLDPE, natural rubber - 20 - number rubber, etc. [60][62][64][68] - **Production Profit**: It shows the historical production profit and processing fee charts of various energy and chemical products, including LLDPE, PP, PTA, ethylene - based ethylene glycol, etc. [70][72] Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the Everbright Futures energy and chemical research team, including Deputy Director Zhong Meiyan, Research Director Du Bingqin, Analyst Di Yilin, and Analyst Peng Haibo, along with their professional backgrounds, honors, and research areas [75][76][77][78]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The geopolitical situation is complex and volatile, with the Iran - related conflict having a continuous impact on the energy market, and the short - term cease - fire is difficult. Oil prices fluctuate significantly, and investors need to pay attention to position risk management [1][3] - Various energy and chemical products show an overall "oscillating" trend, and their prices are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, geopolitical situations, and cost changes [1][3][4] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Wednesday, the decline of oil prices narrowed. WTI April contract closed down $2.03 to $90.32 per barrel, a 2.2% decline; Brent May contract closed down $2.27 to $102.22 per barrel, a 2.17% decline; SC2605 closed at 730.8 yuan per barrel, up 3.6 yuan per barrel, a 0.5% increase. US crude oil inventory increased by 6.926 million barrels to 456.185 million barrels last week, the highest since June 2024. Russia's oil export capacity has been reduced by 40%. The short - term cease - fire is difficult, and the impact on the energy market continues [1] - **Fuel Oil**: On Wednesday, the main fuel oil contract FU2605 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed down 6.45% at 4348 yuan per ton; the low - sulfur fuel oil contract LU2605 closed down 3.89% at 5159 yuan per ton. From January to February 2026, China's fuel oil production was 6.247 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.89%, and the import volume of bonded marine fuel oil was 1.2124 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 41.44%. The market structure of low - sulfur and high - sulfur fuel oil remains strong, and the short - term cracking spread is expected to remain high [3] - **Asphalt**: On Wednesday, the main asphalt contract BU2606 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed down 1.1% at 4410 yuan per ton. This week, the domestic asphalt plant operating rate was 20.45%, a 1.03% month - on - month decrease; the social inventory rate was 36.59%, a 0.81% month - on - month increase; the domestic refinery asphalt inventory level was 25.93%, a 0.78% month - on - month decrease. Due to high raw material prices and unstable supply, and the expected increase in downstream demand, the short - term asphalt price is expected to remain high [4] - **Polyester**: TA605 closed at 6592 yuan per ton, down 1.52%; EG2605 closed at 5036 yuan per ton, down 1.62%. Mainstream polyester filament manufacturers have increased the production cut from 15% to 20%, and the production cut cycle has been extended to the end of April. The polyester price fluctuates widely with the cost in the short term [4] - **Rubber**: On Wednesday, the main rubber contract RU2605 rose 205 yuan per ton to 16430 yuan per ton, NR rose 255 yuan per ton to 13565 yuan per ton, and butadiene rubber BR rose 920 yuan per ton to 17720 yuan per ton. In February 2026, the global light - vehicle sales increased slightly, but were affected by the decline in the Chinese passenger - car market, with a year - on - year decrease of 8.5%. The price of butadiene rubber increased, and the spread between natural rubber and synthetic rubber may continue to widen [6] - **Methanol**: The inventory has started to decline, but the possible resumption of Iranian plants may suppress price increases. The Iranian situation is unclear, which may cause large - scale fluctuations in the market [6] - **Polyolefin**: The upstream device maintenance and load - reduction devices are numerous, and the output will remain low. The downstream factory operating rate has increased, but short - term geopolitical risks have compressed downstream profit margins, and future demand growth may be hindered [7] - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: The price in the East China, North China, and South China markets has decreased. The geopolitical situation has a greater impact on the ethylene - based method, while the profit of the calcium - carbide method has increased rapidly. The supply is expected to remain high, and the demand will gradually recover, maintaining a de - stocking rhythm [7] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis price, basis rate, and their changes for multiple energy and chemical products such as crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, etc., as well as the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data [8] 3.3 Market News - The US has proposed a plan to end the conflict to Iran through several friendly countries, and Iran is studying it. The US EIA report shows that last week, the increase in US crude oil inventory far exceeded expectations, and distillate inventory increased unexpectedly while gasoline inventory decreased [10] 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: It presents the closing price trends of main contracts of various energy and chemical products over the years, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [12][13][14] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows the basis trends of main contracts of various energy and chemical products over the years, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [30][32][34] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: It displays the spreads between different contracts of various energy and chemical products, such as fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, etc. [44][46][49] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: It presents the spreads and ratios between different varieties of energy and chemical products, such as the spread between crude oil's internal and external markets, the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [60][62][64] - **4.5 Production Profits**: It shows the production profit trends of various energy and chemical products, such as LLDPE, PP, PTA, etc. [70][72] 3.5 Research Team Members Introduction - The research team includes the deputy director of the research institute, the energy - chemical research director, and analysts for different product categories, each with rich experience and achievements [75][76][77] 3.6 Contact Information - The company's address is on the 6th floor, Unit 703, No. 729 Yanggao South Road, China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone. The company phone is 021 - 80212222, the fax is 021 - 80212200, the customer service hotline is 400 - 700 - 7979, and the postal code is 200127 [80]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - The oil price fluctuates repeatedly under the influence of news, with increased amplitude. The fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefin, and polyvinyl chloride markets are all in a state of shock. Attention should be paid to the impact of geopolitical situations on the cost side and downstream demand [1][2][4][5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical factors cause the oil price to fluctuate. The WTI May contract rose by 4.79%, the Brent May contract rose by 4.55%, and the SC2605 fell by 1.56%. The US proposed a cease - fire plan, and Kuwait can increase oil production if the conflict ends. API data shows an increase in US crude, gasoline, and distillate inventories [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: The price of fuel oil futures declined due to the sharp drop in oil prices. The market structure of low - sulfur and high - sulfur fuel oil remains strong. The supply of low - sulfur fuel oil from the Middle East and Europe is decreasing, and the supply of high - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore is tight [2]. - **Asphalt**: The price of asphalt futures declined due to the drop in oil prices. The cost of refineries is high, and the supply is tight. With the increase in temperature, the demand is expected to rise, and the price is expected to remain high [2]. - **Polyester**: The prices of polyester futures such as TA605, EG2605, and PX605 all declined. The downstream production and sales are weak, and the price follows the cost to fluctuate widely [2][4]. - **Rubber**: The price of natural rubber futures is affected by the change in geopolitical situations and the decline in butadiene production. The new rubber production is expected to increase, and the downstream demand is weak. The price difference between natural rubber and synthetic rubber may continue to widen [4]. - **Methanol**: The inventory of methanol starts to decline. The Iranian device has the expectation of resuming production, which may suppress the price increase, and the market is volatile [4][5]. - **Polyolefin**: The upstream device maintenance and production reduction are common, and the downstream demand is released. However, the geopolitical risk pushes up the cost, compressing the downstream profit, and the market is in a state of shock [5]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: The price of polyvinyl chloride fluctuates. The geopolitical situation has a greater impact on the ethylene - based method, and the profit of the calcium - carbide method is strong. The supply is expected to remain high, and the demand will gradually recover [5][6]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data of various energy - chemical products on March 24, 2026, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes, as well as the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data [7]. 3.3 Market News - Kuwait can quickly increase oil production if the conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran ends. A Thai oil tanker has successfully passed through the Strait of Hormuz, which is regarded as a positive signal [10]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report provides the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2022 to 2026, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, LLDPE, polypropylene, PVC, methanol, styrene, 20 - number rubber, natural rubber, synthetic rubber, European line container shipping, p - xylene, and bottle chips [12][13][14][15][17][18][21][22][24][26][28]. - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: The report provides the basis charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2022 to 2026, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, natural rubber, 20 - number rubber, p - xylene, synthetic rubber, and bottle chips [30][32][34][36][39][40][41]. - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report provides the spread charts of inter - period contracts of various energy - chemical products, including fuel oil, asphalt, European line container shipping index, PTA, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, and natural rubber [44][46][49][52][55][57]. - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: The report provides the spread and ratio charts of inter - variety of various energy - chemical products, including crude oil internal and external markets, crude oil B - W, fuel oil high - low sulfur, fuel oil/asphalt, BU/SC, ethylene glycol - PTA, PP - LLDPE, and natural rubber - 20 - number rubber [59][61][63][67]. - **4.5 Production Profits**: The report provides the production profit and processing fee charts of various energy - chemical products, including LLDPE, PP, PTA, and ethylene - based ethylene glycol [69][71]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the research team, including the deputy director of the research institute, the research director of energy and chemical industry, the natural rubber/polyester analyst, and the methanol/propylene/pure benzene PE/PP/PVC analyst, and their professional backgrounds and achievements [74][75][76][77].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of various energy and chemical products are affected by geopolitical situations, supply - demand relationships, and cost factors. Most products are expected to fluctuate in the short - term. For example, oil prices are affected by the US - Iran situation and will fluctuate repeatedly; fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefin, and PVC are all in an oscillatory state [1][3][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views 3.1.1 Crude Oil - On Monday, WTI May contract closed down $10.1 to $88.13 per barrel, a decline of 10.28%; Brent May contract closed down $12.25 to $99.94 per barrel, a decline of 10.92%; SC2605 closed at 742.2 yuan per barrel, down 62.9 yuan per barrel, a decline of 7.81%. - The US - Iran situation has led to significant oil price fluctuations. The market is affected by news and will oscillate repeatedly [1]. 3.1.2 Fuel Oil - The main fuel oil contract FU2605 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 5.99% to 5060 yuan per ton on Monday, and the low - sulfur fuel oil contract LU2605 rose 3.51% to 5980 yuan per ton. - The market structures of low - sulfur and high - sulfur fuel oil remain strong. Low - sulfur fuel oil supply from the Middle East and Europe has decreased, and high - sulfur fuel oil supply in Singapore is tight. The short - term cracking spread is expected to remain high [1][3]. 3.1.3 Asphalt - The main asphalt contract BU2604 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 3.59% to 4640 yuan per ton on Monday. - High raw material prices and reduced supply from refineries, along with expected increases in downstream demand, are expected to keep asphalt prices high in the short - term [3]. 3.1.4 Polyester - TA605 closed at 7134 yuan per ton, up 7.28%; EG2605 closed at 5574 yuan per ton, up 4.13%. - Due to upstream raw material supply issues, some production devices plan to reduce loads or shut down. With cost support and downstream demand changes, polyester prices will oscillate widely in the short - term [3]. 3.1.5 Rubber - On Monday, the main natural rubber contract RU2605 rose 145 yuan to 16145 yuan per ton, NR rose 190 yuan to 13055 yuan per ton, and butadiene rubber BR rose 1485 yuan to 17470 yuan per ton. - Tight geopolitical situations, changes in butadiene production, and expected early tapping of natural rubber in China will affect rubber prices. The price difference between natural rubber and synthetic rubber may continue to widen [5]. 3.1.6 Methanol - The inventory of methanol has started to decline, but the expected resumption of Iranian plants may limit price increases. The unclear Iranian situation may cause significant price fluctuations [6]. 3.1.7 Polyolefin - Upstream plant maintenance and reduced loads will keep production at a low level, while downstream demand is expected to increase. However, rising costs due to geopolitical risks may squeeze downstream profit margins and affect future demand growth [6]. 3.1.8 Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) - The PVC market prices in East, North, and South China have increased. The geopolitical situation has a greater impact on ethylene - based PVC, but the profit of calcium - carbide - based PVC has increased rapidly. The overall market is expected to maintain a de - stocking trend [7]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data of various energy and chemical products on March 23, 2026, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes and historical quantiles. For example, the basis of crude oil was 291.81 yuan per barrel on March 23, with a basis rate of 36.25% [8]. 3.3 Market News - The US Energy Secretary said that the release of the strategic petroleum reserve is possible but the probability is very low. The Trump administration is taking measures to stabilize the market. - The El Feel oil field in Libya has stopped production due to pipeline damage, and the oil from the Sharara oil field is transported through alternative pipelines [10]. 3.4 Chart Analysis 3.4.1 Main Contract Prices - The report shows the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2022 to 2026, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [12][15][18]. 3.4.2 Main Contract Basis - The basis charts of main contracts of various products are presented, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, PP, etc., showing the basis changes over time [29][33]. 3.4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads - The spread charts of different contracts of fuel oil, PTA, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, natural rubber, etc. are provided, including spreads between 01 - 05 and 05 - 09 contracts [38][40][44]. 3.4.4 Inter - variety Spreads - The spread and ratio charts between different varieties are shown, such as crude oil internal and external spreads, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, fuel oil/asphalt ratio, etc. [53][55][56]. 3.4.5 Production Profits - The production profit charts of LLDPE, PP, etc. are presented, showing the profit changes over time [61]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy and chemical research team, including the deputy director of the research institute, the research director, and analysts for different product segments, along with their educational backgrounds, honors, and professional experiences [64][65][66].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report analyzes multiple energy and chemical commodities, with most showing a volatile trend. Geopolitical conflicts, supply - demand relationships, and cost factors are the main drivers of price fluctuations [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Wednesday, prices rose. WTI April contract closed up $2.71 to $96.21/barrel (2.9% increase), Brent May contract closed up $3.21 to $103.42/barrel (3.2% increase), and SC2605 closed at 764.9 yuan/barrel, up 20.2 yuan/barrel (2.74% increase). Due to attacks on Fujeirah Port and geopolitical conflicts, prices are in a wide - range volatile state [1] - **Fuel Oil**: On Tuesday, the main contract of high - sulfur fuel oil (FU2605) fell 0.4% to 4771 yuan/ton, and the main contract of low - sulfur fuel oil (LU2605) rose 0.09% to 5641 yuan/ton. Supply shortages in Singapore and potential strong demand from domestic refineries will support the high - sulfur fuel oil market. The market structure of high - and low - sulfur fuel oil has strengthened, and short - term cracking spreads are expected to remain high [2] - **Asphalt**: On Tuesday, the main contract (BU2604) rose 2.26% to 4426 yuan/ton. The April asphalt production plan of local refineries is expected to decrease significantly. Supply is expected to be tight, while demand in northern regions is expected to increase in April, and short - term prices are expected to remain high [2][3] - **Polyester**: TA605 closed down 0.92% at 6918 yuan/ton, EG2605 closed down 1.45% at 4826 yuan/ton. The production cuts of domestic and overseas suppliers, high costs, and weak downstream demand lead to high - level wide - range volatility of polyester prices. If the import of ethylene glycol recovers, it is expected to decline slightly [3] - **Rubber**: On Tuesday, the main contracts of natural rubber (RU2605), 20 - number rubber (NR), and butadiene rubber (BR) all fell. Butadiene rubber prices will fluctuate with geopolitical situations and crude oil prices, and natural rubber faces the dual pressure of increased supply and decreased demand, with their trends likely to further diverge [3][5] - **Methanol**: The inventory is expected to decline, and the profit recovery of MTO devices may increase the refineries' willingness to resume production. The unclear situation in Iran may cause significant market fluctuations [5] - **Polyolefins**: The upstream device maintenance plan increases, and the downstream demand is released in spring. The market is in a de - stocking state, but the short - term geopolitical risks push up costs, squeezing downstream profit margins, and subsequent demand growth may be hindered [5] - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: The geopolitical situation has a greater impact on the ethylene - based method, but the profit of the calcium - carbide method has strengthened rapidly. The supply is expected to remain high, demand will gradually recover, and prices are expected to maintain wide - range volatility [6] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data of multiple energy and chemical products on March 17, 2026, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes compared with the previous day, as well as the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data [7] 3.3 Market News - Fujeirah Port was attacked, causing a fire and halting the oil loading work of ADNOC. The port usually transports over 1 million barrels of Murban crude oil per day, and its production capacity has decreased [9] - The US government plans to further relax sanctions on Venezuela's oil industry to increase crude oil production and ease the global energy supply shortage [9] 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price charts of the main contracts of multiple energy and chemical products from 2022 to 2026, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, etc., to show the price trends over the years [11][12][13] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows the basis charts of multiple energy and chemical products from 2022 to 2026, such as crude oil, fuel oil, etc., to reflect the relationship between spot and futures prices [29][30][33] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: It presents the spread charts of different contracts of multiple energy and chemical products, such as fuel oil, asphalt, etc., to show the price differences between different contract periods [42][43][44] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: It shows the spread or ratio charts between different energy and chemical products, such as the spread between crude oil's internal and external markets, the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil, etc., to reflect the price relationships between different varieties [59][60][61] - **4.5 Production Profits**: It presents the production profit or processing fee charts of multiple energy and chemical products, such as LLDPE, PP, etc., to show the profitability of different products [69][70][71] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the research team, including the deputy director of the research institute, the research director of energy and chemicals, and several analysts, along with their educational backgrounds, honors, and professional experiences [74][75][76]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The oil price shows a wide - range volatile trend due to the continuous geopolitical conflicts and the influence of supply - related news. The market needs to pay attention to whether the conflict directly affects Iranian oil export facilities [1][3]. - The short - term high - and low - sulfur cracking spreads of fuel oil are expected to remain at a high level, and the impact of the geopolitical situation on the cost side should be noted [3]. - The asphalt price is expected to remain at a high level in the short term. The supply is expected to decrease, and the demand is expected to increase, with attention to the impact of the geopolitical situation on the cost side [3]. - The polyester price shows a high - level wide - range volatile trend in the short term due to the resonance of cost - side increase and supply reduction, while the downstream demand is weak. The ethylene glycol may have a slight correction if there is an expectation of import recovery [5]. - The natural rubber and synthetic rubber trends may further diverge. The butadiene rubber price will fluctuate with the geopolitical situation and oil price, and the natural rubber will face the dual pressures of increased supply and decreased demand [5][7]. - The methanol inventory will enter a downward channel, but the current Iranian situation is unclear, which may cause large fluctuations in the market [7]. - The polyolefin market maintains a de - stocking rhythm, but the short - term geopolitical risks push up the cost, squeezing the downstream profit space, and the follow - up demand growth may be blocked [7][9]. - The PVC price is expected to maintain a wide - range volatile trend. The supply is expected to remain at a high level, and the demand will gradually recover [9]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Monday, the oil price center dropped. The WTI April contract closed down $5.21 to $93.5 per barrel, a decline of 5.28%. The Brent May contract closed down $2.93 to $100.21 per barrel, a decline of 2.84%. SC2604 closed at 712.5 yuan per barrel, down 49.3 yuan per barrel, a decline of 6.47%. The US Treasury Secretary said that Iranian oil tankers are continuously leaving the Strait of Hormuz, and the US has taken a tacit attitude. The IEA has agreed to use 400 million barrels of emergency strategic reserves, and Saudi Arabia has available global inventories. Saudi Arabia is accelerating oil exports through alternative routes, with at least 27 oil tankers waiting at Yanbu Port on Monday, up from 11 on Friday. Iraq is working on modifying an oil pipeline to directly export oil to Turkey's Ceyhan Port [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Monday, the main contract of fuel oil (FU2605) on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 1.81% to 4,848 yuan per ton, and the main contract of low - sulfur fuel oil (LU2605) rose 2.18% to 5,729 yuan per ton. The market structure of high - and low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore has strengthened significantly. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz restricts the supply of fuel oil from the Middle East, and the soaring freight rates close the east - west arbitrage window, tightening the supply. The demand from domestic refineries for alternative raw materials and overseas ship refueling is expected to increase [3]. - **Asphalt**: On Monday, the main contract of asphalt (BU2604) on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 10.63% to 4,464 yuan per ton. Affected by the geopolitical conflict, the short - term supply of raw materials is expected to be tight. Some major refineries are ensuring the supply of refined oil, so the asphalt production is expected to decrease, and the supply will remain at a low level. The demand in the northern region is expected to increase in April as the temperature warms up [3]. - **Polyester**: TA605 closed at 6,982 yuan per ton on Monday, up 0.69%. EG2605 closed at 4,897 yuan per ton, up 3.55%. PX futures main contract 605 closed at 10,180 yuan per ton, up 1.62%. The production of domestic and overseas suppliers has been reduced. The cost increase and supply reduction resonate, while the downstream demand is weak. The ethylene glycol production in Iran has resumed, but the shipping needs further recovery [5]. - **Rubber**: On Monday, the main contract of Shanghai rubber (RU2605) rose 105 yuan per ton to 16,870 yuan per ton, NR rose 175 yuan per ton to 13,495 yuan per ton, and butadiene rubber (BR) main contract fell 25 yuan per ton to 15,700 yuan per ton. In January 2026, the US imported 23.48 million tires, a year - on - year increase of 2.6% and a month - on - month increase of 2.5%. The natural rubber and synthetic rubber trends may diverge [5][7]. - **Methanol**: The inventory of methanol will enter a downward channel, and the MTO plant may increase the willingness to resume production. However, the current Iranian situation is unclear, which may cause large fluctuations in the market [7]. - **Polyolefins**: The upstream plant maintenance plans have increased, and the subsequent production is expected to decline. The downstream factory operating load has increased, and the spring demand is being released. The market maintains a de - stocking rhythm, but the short - term geopolitical risks push up the cost, squeezing the downstream profit space [7][9]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: The PVC price in the East, North, and South China markets has increased. The geopolitical situation has a greater impact on the ethylene - based method, but the profit of the calcium carbide - based method has strengthened rapidly. The supply is expected to remain at a high level, and the demand will gradually recover [9]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The table shows the basis data of various energy and chemical products on March 16, 2026, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes compared with March 13, as well as the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data [10]. 3.3 Market News - The US Treasury Secretary said that Iranian oil tankers are continuously leaving the Strait of Hormuz, and the US has taken a tacit attitude. The IEA has agreed to use 400 million barrels of emergency strategic reserves, and Saudi Arabia has available global inventories. The US President Trump called on countries to help dredge the Strait of Hormuz [12]. - With the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, Saudi Arabia is accelerating oil exports through alternative routes. At least 27 oil tankers were waiting at Yanbu Port on Monday, up from 11 on Friday, and Saudi Arabia aims to export up to 5 million barrels of oil per day through this alternative channel [12]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: There are 19 charts showing the closing prices of main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2022 to 2026, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [14][15][16] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: There are 31 charts showing the basis of main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2022 to 2026, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, etc. [32][34][38] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: There are 22 charts showing the spreads between different contracts of various energy and chemical products, such as fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [46][48][51] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: There are 12 charts showing the spreads and ratios between different varieties of energy and chemical products, such as crude oil internal and external spreads, fuel oil high - and low - sulfur spreads, etc. [62][64][66] - **4.5 Production Profits**: There are 4 charts showing the production profits and processing fees of various energy and chemical products, such as LLDPE, PP, PTA, and ethylene - based ethylene glycol [71][73] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - **Zhong Meiyan**: Deputy Director of Everbright Futures Research Institute, with a master's degree from Shanghai University of Finance and Economics. She has won many awards and has more than ten years of research experience in the futures derivatives market [76]. - **Du Bingqin**: Director of Energy and Chemical Research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with a master's degree in applied economics from the University of Wisconsin - Madison. She has won many awards and has in - depth research on the energy industry [77]. - **Di Yilin**: Analyst of natural rubber and polyester at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with a master's degree in finance. She has won many awards and is mainly engaged in the research of related futures varieties [78]. - **Peng Haibo**: Analyst of methanol, propylene, pure benzene, polyolefins, and PVC at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with an engineering master's degree and a title of intermediate economist. He has relevant work experience and has passed the CFA Level III exam [79].