丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨专题报告丨消费者服务Ⅱ [Table_Title] 社会服务行业 2025 年三季度业绩综述：回暖动 能持续增强，细分领域机遇凸显 报告要点 SAC：S0490517020001 SAC：S0490520080013 SFC：BUX176 赵刚 杨会强 马健轩 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% [Table_Summary] 2025 年前三季度，收入端，社服行业整体营收同比+1.8%，除免税和酒店外，其他各子行业营 收均实现正向增长；利润层面表现分化，社服行业整体扣非净利润同比-6.51%，酒店、人资板 块分别同比+13.51%/+5.41%，其中酒店板块费用控制效果显著；景区、教育、餐饮、免税、出 境游板块分别同比-5.3%/-9.24%/-16.02%/-23.98%/-86.18%，主要系消费疲弱，收入增长乏力， 但人工等成本费用开支刚性导致。单三季度，行业整体的营收同比+3.64%、扣非净利润同比- 4.28%，呈现边际向好趋势。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] research.95579.com 1 消费者服务Ⅱ cjzqdt1111 ...

图源：企业官网 本报记者 张蓓 见习记者 黄指南 深圳报道 涨停潮中的热度，终究需要更扎实的经营数据来承接。 10月CPI同比转正、核心CPI持续回升的经济信号，正式点燃大消费板块的复苏引擎。 11月10日，食品饮料、白酒、免税店与旅游赛道集体走强，中证消费指数单日大涨3.38%创下半年以来 单日最高涨幅。而蛰伏逾一年的锦江酒店，也搭上这波复苏快车，于同日触及涨停。 酒店投融资领域资深分析师向《华夏时报》记者表示，数据层面的利好是点燃行情的"引信"，但锦江酒 店的涨停绝非单一因素驱动。 他续指"锦江酒店在第三季度盈利大幅改善的基础上，凭借东南亚扩张的预期，展现出强劲的增长潜 力。公司扣非净利增长72.18%，显示出在行业需求回升的周期中，锦江酒店通过提高经营效率实现了 阶段性突破。" 但喧嚣背后，锦江酒店的基本面仍暗藏隐忧。年末收官的一个月内，公司不仅要直面营收净利双降的业 绩压力，更需警惕悬于头顶的"商誉达摩克利斯之剑" 境内主业修复VS境外业务承压 11月10日的涨停，系锦江酒店近一年来的唯一一次。 孤例行情的背后，是10月CPI数据由降转涨释放的市场信心——统计局数据显示，受扩内需政策持续显 效及国庆、 ...

从资金流向上来看，当日酒店餐饮板块主力资金净流出1.18亿元，游资资金净流出7047.89万元，散户资 金净流入1.88亿元。酒店餐饮板块个股资金流向见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 主力净流入(元) | 主力净占比 游资净流入 (元) | | 游资净占比 散户净流入 (元) | | 散户净占比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 000428 华天酒店 | | 1036.53万 | 11.30% | -249.35万 | -2.72% | -787.18万 | -8.58% | | 605108 | 同庆楼 | -17.51万 | -0.30% | -250.88万 | -4.23% | 268.40万 | 4.52% | | 601007 | 金陵饭店 | -111.78万 | -1.56% | -514.57万 | -7.16% | 626.36万 | 8.72% | | 301073 君亭酒店 | | -297.80万 | -2.39% | -428.16万 | -3.43% | 725.96万 | 5.82% | | 00230 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [9]. Core Insights - In Q3 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 3.715 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.71%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 375 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 45.45%. The non-recurring net profit attributable to shareholders was 431 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 72.18% [2][6]. - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported operating revenue of 10.241 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.09%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 746 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 32.52%. The non-recurring net profit attributable to shareholders was 840 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 31.43% [6]. - The company is implementing a reform strategy aimed at enhancing operational efficiency, which includes restructuring its headquarters and reducing the number of regional divisions [2][6]. - The company plans to continue its aggressive expansion strategy, with expectations to open 1,300 new hotels and sign contracts for 2,000 new hotels in 2025 [2][6]. Financial Performance - The company experienced a significant reduction in expense ratios, leading to improved profitability. The overall expense ratio decreased by 5.74 percentage points to 25.35%, resulting in a net profit margin increase of 3.15 percentage points to 10.67% [2][6]. - The gross profit margin for Q3 2025 was 41.69%, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 2.65 percentage points [2][6]. - The company’s RevPAR (Revenue per Available Room) for full-service hotels and limited-service hotels in China decreased by 4.65% and 1.99% year-on-year, respectively, primarily due to pressure on occupancy rates [2][6]. Future Outlook - The company is optimistic about its long-term brand development strategy, referred to as "12+3+1," which is expected to drive growth [2][6]. - Profit forecasts for the company indicate net profits attributable to shareholders of 953 million yuan, 1.057 billion yuan, and 1.163 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 24, 22, and 20 times [2][6].

证券之星消息，11月12日酒店餐饮板块较上一交易日下跌0.49%，全 聚 德领跌。当日上证指数报收于 4000.14，下跌0.07%。深证成指报收于13240.62，下跌0.36%。酒店餐饮板块个股涨跌见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 600754 | 锦江酒店 | 26.28 | 0.04% | 37.48万 | 9.93 6 | | 600258 | 首旅酒店 | 16.03 | 0.00% | 38.67万 | 6.30 Z | | 002306 | *ST云网 | 2.22 | 0.00% | 69.94万 | 265 T | | 605108 | 同庆楼 | 20.03 | 0.00% | - 4.03万 | 8152.74万 | | 601007 | 金陵饭店 | 7.74 | -0.90% | 10.62万 | 8261.55万 | | 301073 | 君喜酒店 | 23.53 | -1.18% | 7.85万 | 1.87亿 | | 000428 | 华 ...

Q&A 酒店行业近况更新 20251111 摘要 两大酒店集团（华住、锦江）在国庆节后 RevPAR 迅速恢复，同比转正， 甚至超过 2024 年同期水平，显示出强劲的复苏势头。华住 RevPAR 维 持在 95%-99.6%，锦江集团在 10 月第三周开始 RevPAR 同比逐步提 升，并在第四周达到 100%以上。 商务差旅需求回暖显著，自 5 月份开始逐步复苏，七八月份后表现强劲， 开票客户的过夜间夜数远超去年同期水平，亚朵和锦江等品牌的数据回 暖也佐证了这一趋势。华住集团差旅部分占比大约在 40%至 42%之间。 免签政策推动旅游市场旺盛，海外游客来华消费同比增长 120%，超过 2019 年同期水平。北京、上海、广州、深圳等主要城市外国游客占比 明显提升，国内旅游热点城市人次和经营数据显著增长。 酒店 ADR（平均每日房价）与去年基本持平，各大酒店集团未通过降价 换取流量，维持价格稳定，表明市场竞争趋于理性，各大品牌更加注重 长期发展而非短期收益。预计 2026 年 ADR 可能不会大幅提升，但 OCC 能稳得住的话，将推动 RevPAR 转正。 预计 2026 年酒店行业整体 RevPAR 将同比 ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the **hotel**, **airline**, and **duty-free** industries, highlighting their performance and future outlook post-National Day in 2025 [1][3][11]. Key Points and Arguments Hotel Industry - **Strong Performance Post-National Day**: The hotel sector showed robust performance after the National Day, driven by a recovery in business travel rather than solely relying on consumer wealth effects [1][3]. - **Positive Growth Indicators**: Five-star hotel Average Daily Rate (ADR) has stabilized, with occupancy rates improving, leading to a positive growth in September for the first time [1][5]. - **Institutional Holdings**: The hotel sector's institutional holding ratio is at a 15-year low, which, combined with improving data and valuation advantages, has led to a rebound in hotel stocks [1][6]. - **Investment Opportunities**: Companies like Jin Jiang and Shou Tour have low PE ratios for 2026, indicating potential investment value [1][6][8]. - **Expansion and New Products**: Shou Tour is expanding its standard stores and launching new products to enhance acceptance among franchisees and consumers [8]. - **Growth of Budget and Mid-range Hotels**: Jin Jiang and Huazhu are showing signs of improvement, with Jin Jiang's RevPAR showing a positive trend in October [5][9]. Airline Industry - **Recovery in Passenger Volume**: Overall passenger volume increased by 5.2% year-on-year from January to September 2025, with international routes showing a significant recovery [4][15]. - **High Load Factors**: The airline sector maintains high load factors, with expectations for continued improvement in ticket prices [13][15]. - **Airline Recommendations**: China Eastern Airlines is highlighted as a strong investment opportunity due to its rapid recovery and performance exceeding pre-pandemic levels [4][19]. - **Cost Pressures Eased**: Low oil prices and favorable exchange rates have alleviated cost pressures for airlines, contributing to improved profitability [18][21]. - **Future Pricing Trends**: Ticket prices are expected to improve in the fourth quarter, although a potential decline may occur post-Spring Festival due to weaker business demand [16][21]. Duty-Free Industry - **Sales Growth**: The duty-free sector has shown consistent sales growth, with Hainan's offshore duty-free sales achieving positive growth for the first time in 18 months [11][12]. - **Policy Optimizations**: Recent policy changes in Hainan are expected to gradually release demand, positively impacting revenue and profit recovery for the end of the year and into 2026 [12]. Additional Important Insights - **Market Sentiment**: There is a growing market interest in the travel-related sectors, with data indicating sustained performance beyond holiday effects [3]. - **Investment Focus**: The hotel and duty-free sectors are identified as new consumption hotspots driven by fundamental improvements, with upcoming meetings in December and March expected to provide further insights into consumer demand [22]. - **Airport Performance**: Airports like Shanghai and Baiyun are benefiting from increased air traffic, with significant year-on-year growth in passenger numbers [20][21]. This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the hotel, airline, and duty-free industries.

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Outperforming the Market" with an expected increase of over 10% relative to the market index in the next six months [5][40]. Core Insights - The social service industry has seen a significant reduction in heavy positions, with a total market value of 4.595 billion yuan, down by 1.630 billion yuan from the previous quarter [2][10]. - The heavy position ratio for the social service industry is currently at 0.05%, which is significantly lower than the five-year average of 0.44%, indicating potential for rebound [2][10]. - The report highlights a general decline in the overweight ratios across various sub-sectors, with the hotel and catering sector maintaining a low position ratio of 0.02% [3][19]. - The report suggests that service consumption is accelerating towards becoming the mainstay of household consumption, driven by policies aimed at expanding service consumption [4][39]. Summary by Sections Heavy Position Analysis - The number of funds holding heavy positions in the social service industry decreased from 177 to 10, with a total market value of 4.595 billion yuan [2][10]. - The heavy position ratio ranks 30th among 31 first-level industries, indicating a low allocation compared to historical levels [2][10]. Sub-sector Performance - The hotel and catering sector's heavy position ratio has remained stable at 0.02%, while the tourism and scenic area sector has seen a slight decline to 0.01% [3][19]. - The professional services sector experienced a minor decrease, with a heavy position ratio of 0.02% [3][19]. Individual Stock Performance - The top ten stocks in the social service sector saw a combined heavy position ratio of 0.045%, down from the previous quarter [3][28]. - Notable stocks include Shoulu Hotel, which maintains the highest heavy position ratio, and Tongqing Tower, which has entered the top ten for the first time this year [3][28]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on sectors benefiting from policy support, including cultural tourism, sports, and education, as these areas are expected to see growth due to favorable policies [4][39].

Core Insights - The hotel and catering sector experienced a rise of 1.55% on November 11, with Jinjiang Hotels leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4002.76, down 0.39%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13289.0, down 1.03% [1] Sector Performance - Jinjiang Hotels (600754) closed at 26.27, up 4.20% with a trading volume of 613,000 shares and a transaction value of 1.59 billion [1] - Junting Hotels (301073) closed at 23.81, up 2.06% with a trading volume of 115,900 shares and a transaction value of 275 million [1] - ST Yunwang (002306) closed at 2.22, up 1.83% with a trading volume of 918,200 shares and a transaction value of 204 million [1] - Tongqinglou (605108) closed at 20.03, up 0.91% with a trading volume of 44,800 shares and a transaction value of 89.29 million [1] - JINLING Hotel (601007) closed at 7.81, up 0.64% with a trading volume of 102,200 shares and a transaction value of 79.42 million [1] - Huatian Hotel (000428) closed at 3.50, up 0.57% with a trading volume of 190,200 shares and a transaction value of 66.29 million [1] - Xianyinshi (000721) closed at 9.40, up 0.32% with a trading volume of 386,900 shares and a transaction value of 361 million [1] - Quanjude (002186) closed at 12.87, down 0.16% with a trading volume of 234,800 shares and a transaction value of 301 million [1] - Shoulu Hotel (600258) closed at 16.03, down 0.74% with a trading volume of 545,800 shares and a transaction value of 876 million [1] Capital Flow - The hotel and catering sector saw a net outflow of 279 million from institutional investors, while retail investors had a net inflow of 309 million [1] - The detailed capital flow for individual stocks indicates significant outflows for several companies, including: - Tongqinglou: -4.59% from institutional investors, -4.75% from retail investors [2] - Junting Hotels: -2.42% from institutional investors, -4.72% from retail investors [2] - ST Yunwang: -12.61% from institutional investors, with a net inflow of 7.65% from retail investors [2] - Jinjiang Hotels: -6.36% from institutional investors, with a net outflow of 3.58% from retail investors [2]

Investment Rating - Investment recommendation: Outperform the market (maintained) [7] Core Viewpoints - The social service sector's institutional holdings are at historical lows, with signs of stabilization in the hotel and employment sectors. The CPI's recovery in October reflects a warming consumer market. The report suggests focusing on "domestic demand cyclical + quality new consumption" [4][10]. - Recommended companies include Huazhu Group, Miniso, Guoquan, Green Tea Group, and Laopu Gold, which show continuous operational improvement and high valuation cost-effectiveness [4][10]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Tracking: Institutional Holdings at Historical Lows - The social service sector has underperformed the market by 9.78% year-to-date, with a year-to-date increase of 11.40% as of November 10, 2025. The sector ranks 19th among 31 primary industries [13]. - The fund holding ratio for the social service sector is 0.46%, down 0.64 percentage points from the previous quarter, indicating historical lows [17]. - October CPI data shows a year-on-year increase of 0.2%, signaling a recovery in consumer spending [22]. 2. Sub-industry Analysis: Industry Fundamentals Stabilizing - Employment: The hiring confidence index has improved, with values rising from 44.07 in August to 54.87 in October 2025 [29]. - Hotels: The RevPAR growth rate has shown improvement, with a year-on-year increase of 4.4% in the 44th week of 2025 [39]. - Duty-Free: The new duty-free policy in Hainan has led to a significant increase in shopping amounts, with a total of 5.06 billion yuan in sales during the first week of implementation [50]. - Dining: The pressure on customer spending appears to have eased, with service prices showing an upward trend [52]. 3. Investment Recommendations: Focus on Marginal Changes - The report emphasizes the importance of marginal changes and suggests actively investing in cyclical and new consumption leaders. Recommended companies include Huazhu Group, Miniso, Guoquan, Green Tea Group, and Laopu Gold, with a focus on those showing clear improvement trends [10][54].