证 券 研 究 报 告 社服行业 2025 年三季报综述 出行需求旺盛驱动行业收入增速边际改善 行业研究 消费者服务 2025 年 11 月 17 日 推荐（维持） 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：饶临风 邮箱：raolinfeng@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525080002 证券分析师：曹锦瑜 邮箱：caojinyu@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525100001 行业基本数据 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数(只) | 55 | 0.01 | | 总市值(亿元) | 5,615.65 | 0.46 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 5,156.15 | 0.53 | 相对指数表现 | % | 1M | 6M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现 | 12.3% | 17.8% | 7.2% | | 相对表现 | 10.4% | -0.4% | -8.7% | 《消费者服务行业周报（20251110-20251114）：关 注消费复苏及产业升级驱动的结构性机会》 2025-11-16 《消费者服务行业 ...

从资金流向上来看，当日酒店餐饮板块主力资金净流出2527.52万元，游资资金净流出1491.27万元，散户 资金净流入4018.79万元。酒店餐饮板块个股资金流向见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 主力净流入(元) | 主力净占比 游资净流入 (元) | | 游资净占比 散户净流入 (元) | | 散户净占比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 301073 君亭酒店 | | > 802.88万 | 3.96% | -540.49万 | -2.66% | -262.39万 | -1.29% | | 000428 华天酒店 | | 501.98万 | 6.53% | -562.31万 | -7.32% | > 60.33万 | 0.79% | | 002306 *ST云网 | | 439.90万 | 4.79% | -217.20万 | -2.36% | -222.70万 | -2.42% | | 000721 西安饮食 | | 387.39万 | 3.20% | -243.30万 | -2.01% | -144.08万 | -1.19% | ...

□本报记者 王宇露 上周市场震荡调整，中证新华社民族品牌工程指数报2019.62点。锦江酒店（600754）、以岭药业 （002603）、中国中免（601888）等成分股上周逆市上涨；下半年以来，中际旭创（300308）、阳光电 源（300274）、亿纬锂能（300014）等成分股涨幅居前。展望后市，机构认为，国内内生动能正在修 复，上市公司有望进入业绩释放期，A股仍处于上涨轨道，年末可进一步关注消费、红利板块等。 多只成分股逆市上涨 上周市场震荡调整，上证指数下跌0.18%，深证成指下跌1.40%，创业板指下跌3.01%，沪深300指数下 跌1.08%，品牌工程指数下跌0.11%，报2019.62点。 上周品牌工程指数多只成分股逆市上涨。具体来说，锦江酒店上涨13.13%，排在涨幅榜首位；以岭药 业上涨12.45%，居次席；中国中免上涨11.76%；信立泰（002294）和泸州老窖（000568）分别上涨 6.11%和6.05%；石头科技、爱美客（300896）、安琪酵母（600298）、步长制药（603858）、通策医 疗（600763）、山西汾酒（600809）涨逾5%；光明乳业（600597）、同仁堂 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the social services industry [10] Core Insights - In the first three quarters of 2025, the overall revenue of the social services industry increased by 1.8% year-on-year, with positive growth in all sub-sectors except for duty-free and hotel sectors [2][19] - The overall net profit excluding non-recurring items decreased by 6.51% year-on-year, with significant variations across sectors; hotels and human resources sectors showed increases of 13.51% and 5.41% respectively, while sectors like tourism, education, dining, duty-free, and outbound tourism experienced declines [2][19] - The third quarter showed a marginal improvement with a revenue increase of 3.64% year-on-year and a net profit decrease of 4.28% [2][19] Summary by Relevant Sections Revenue Overview - The overall revenue growth for the social services industry was 1.8% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, with a notable increase of 3.64% in the third quarter [19] - Sub-sectors such as outbound tourism, human resources, education, and scenic spots saw revenue growth rates of 10.53%, 9.57%, 4.41%, and 1.41% respectively, while dining and duty-free sectors faced declines [20][22] Profitability Analysis - The overall net profit excluding non-recurring items for the industry decreased by 6.51% year-on-year, with hotels and human resources sectors showing positive growth [23][24] - The hotel sector benefited from effective cost control, while other sectors like scenic spots, education, dining, and duty-free faced significant profit declines [23][24] Cash Flow Insights - The cash flow situation showed signs of improvement, with human resources, dining, and scenic spots experiencing increases in net cash flow [34] - The overall cash flow performance remained weak, with several sectors showing declines in cash flow relative to revenue [34] Sector-Specific Opportunities - In the education sector, high-quality institutions are expected to see stable growth, particularly with the integration of AI technologies [7][41] - The human resources sector is experiencing structural recovery, supported by employment policies and AI technology [7][41] - The hotel sector is witnessing a recovery in RevPAR, with leading hotel groups resuming rapid expansion [7][41] - The duty-free sector is seeing a narrowing of sales declines, with expectations for new policies to stimulate growth [8][41] - The dining sector is currently facing challenges due to regulatory impacts, but some companies are managing to maintain stable growth [7][41] - The scenic spots sector is benefiting from increased domestic tourism, particularly among rural residents [7][41]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in the consumer sector, driven by positive economic signals such as the October CPI turning positive, has led to a significant increase in stock prices for companies like Jinjiang Hotels, although underlying operational challenges remain [3][4]. Economic Signals - October CPI showed a year-on-year increase of 0.2%, marking a return to growth, which has boosted market confidence in the consumer sector [3]. - The consumer index rose by 3.38% on November 10, the highest single-day increase in six months, reflecting a collective strength in sectors like food and beverage, liquor, duty-free shops, and tourism [3][4]. Company Performance - Jinjiang Hotels reported a 5.09% decline in revenue for the first three quarters, totaling 10.241 billion yuan, and a 32.52% drop in net profit to 746 million yuan [4][5]. - However, the company's net profit excluding non-recurring items increased by 31.43% to 840 million yuan, indicating a marginal improvement in operational quality [5][6]. Business Structure and Challenges - The company experienced a 4.54% decrease in hotel revenue in Q3, with domestic operations showing a 2.2% increase, while international operations faced an 18.4% decline due to high comparative figures from the previous year [5][6]. - The average revenue per available room (RevPAR) for domestic limited-service hotels slightly decreased by 1.99%, while international RevPAR fell by 10.48% [6]. Cost Management and Efficiency - Jinjiang Hotels has implemented structural changes to enhance operational efficiency, resulting in a 22.22% reduction in management expenses, with the management expense ratio decreasing to 14.89% [6][7]. - The company is focusing on a light-asset expansion strategy, increasing the proportion of franchise and management contracts to enhance business resilience [6][7]. Expansion and Market Dynamics - In Q3, Jinjiang Hotels added 212 new hotels, all of which were limited-service hotels, indicating a shift in focus towards this segment [7]. - The company faces significant competition in the limited-service hotel market, with a high exit rate of 37% for new openings, reflecting the intense competitive landscape [7]. Goodwill and Acquisition Risks - Jinjiang Hotels has a substantial goodwill of 11.79 billion yuan, accounting for nearly 75% of its net assets, raising concerns about potential impairment risks due to ongoing losses in its overseas operations [9][10]. - The company has acknowledged the challenges of managing goodwill, particularly in light of past acquisitions and the current market environment [10][12]. Industry Trends - The hotel industry is transitioning from rapid expansion to a focus on refined operations and brand development, necessitating a reassessment of past acquisition outcomes [12][13]. - Effective integration of acquired assets and risk management in mergers and acquisitions is becoming increasingly critical for the industry [14].

从资金流向上来看，当日酒店餐饮板块主力资金净流出1.18亿元，游资资金净流出7047.89万元，散户资 金净流入1.88亿元。酒店餐饮板块个股资金流向见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 主力净流入(元) | 主力净占比 游资净流入 (元) | | 游资净占比 散户净流入 (元) | | 散户净占比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 000428 华天酒店 | | 1036.53万 | 11.30% | -249.35万 | -2.72% | -787.18万 | -8.58% | | 605108 | 同庆楼 | -17.51万 | -0.30% | -250.88万 | -4.23% | 268.40万 | 4.52% | | 601007 | 金陵饭店 | -111.78万 | -1.56% | -514.57万 | -7.16% | 626.36万 | 8.72% | | 301073 君亭酒店 | | -297.80万 | -2.39% | -428.16万 | -3.43% | 725.96万 | 5.82% | | 00230 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [9]. Core Insights - In Q3 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 3.715 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.71%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 375 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 45.45%. The non-recurring net profit attributable to shareholders was 431 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 72.18% [2][6]. - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported operating revenue of 10.241 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.09%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 746 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 32.52%. The non-recurring net profit attributable to shareholders was 840 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 31.43% [6]. - The company is implementing a reform strategy aimed at enhancing operational efficiency, which includes restructuring its headquarters and reducing the number of regional divisions [2][6]. - The company plans to continue its aggressive expansion strategy, with expectations to open 1,300 new hotels and sign contracts for 2,000 new hotels in 2025 [2][6]. Financial Performance - The company experienced a significant reduction in expense ratios, leading to improved profitability. The overall expense ratio decreased by 5.74 percentage points to 25.35%, resulting in a net profit margin increase of 3.15 percentage points to 10.67% [2][6]. - The gross profit margin for Q3 2025 was 41.69%, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 2.65 percentage points [2][6]. - The company’s RevPAR (Revenue per Available Room) for full-service hotels and limited-service hotels in China decreased by 4.65% and 1.99% year-on-year, respectively, primarily due to pressure on occupancy rates [2][6]. Future Outlook - The company is optimistic about its long-term brand development strategy, referred to as "12+3+1," which is expected to drive growth [2][6]. - Profit forecasts for the company indicate net profits attributable to shareholders of 953 million yuan, 1.057 billion yuan, and 1.163 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 24, 22, and 20 times [2][6].

Core Insights - The hotel and catering sector experienced a decline of 0.49% on November 12, with Quan Juding leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4000.14, down 0.07%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13240.62, down 0.36% [1] Sector Performance - The hotel and catering sector's individual stock performance showed varied results, with Quan Juding down 2.64% to 12.53, and Jinling Hotel down 0.90% to 7.74 [1] - The trading volume for Jinjiang Hotels was 374,800 shares, with a closing price of 26.28, reflecting a slight increase of 0.04% [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The hotel and catering sector saw a net outflow of 229 million yuan from institutional investors and 111 million yuan from retail investors, while retail investors had a net inflow of 340 million yuan [1] - Specific stocks like Quan Juding and Huatian Hotels experienced significant net outflows from institutional and speculative funds, indicating a shift in investor sentiment [2]

Q&A 酒店行业近况更新 20251111 摘要 两大酒店集团（华住、锦江）在国庆节后 RevPAR 迅速恢复，同比转正， 甚至超过 2024 年同期水平，显示出强劲的复苏势头。华住 RevPAR 维 持在 95%-99.6%，锦江集团在 10 月第三周开始 RevPAR 同比逐步提 升，并在第四周达到 100%以上。 商务差旅需求回暖显著，自 5 月份开始逐步复苏，七八月份后表现强劲， 开票客户的过夜间夜数远超去年同期水平，亚朵和锦江等品牌的数据回 暖也佐证了这一趋势。华住集团差旅部分占比大约在 40%至 42%之间。 免签政策推动旅游市场旺盛，海外游客来华消费同比增长 120%，超过 2019 年同期水平。北京、上海、广州、深圳等主要城市外国游客占比 明显提升，国内旅游热点城市人次和经营数据显著增长。 酒店 ADR（平均每日房价）与去年基本持平，各大酒店集团未通过降价 换取流量，维持价格稳定，表明市场竞争趋于理性，各大品牌更加注重 长期发展而非短期收益。预计 2026 年 ADR 可能不会大幅提升，但 OCC 能稳得住的话，将推动 RevPAR 转正。 预计 2026 年酒店行业整体 RevPAR 将同比 ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the **hotel**, **airline**, and **duty-free** industries, highlighting their performance and future outlook post-National Day in 2025 [1][3][11]. Key Points and Arguments Hotel Industry - **Strong Performance Post-National Day**: The hotel sector showed robust performance after the National Day, driven by a recovery in business travel rather than solely relying on consumer wealth effects [1][3]. - **Positive Growth Indicators**: Five-star hotel Average Daily Rate (ADR) has stabilized, with occupancy rates improving, leading to a positive growth in September for the first time [1][5]. - **Institutional Holdings**: The hotel sector's institutional holding ratio is at a 15-year low, which, combined with improving data and valuation advantages, has led to a rebound in hotel stocks [1][6]. - **Investment Opportunities**: Companies like Jin Jiang and Shou Tour have low PE ratios for 2026, indicating potential investment value [1][6][8]. - **Expansion and New Products**: Shou Tour is expanding its standard stores and launching new products to enhance acceptance among franchisees and consumers [8]. - **Growth of Budget and Mid-range Hotels**: Jin Jiang and Huazhu are showing signs of improvement, with Jin Jiang's RevPAR showing a positive trend in October [5][9]. Airline Industry - **Recovery in Passenger Volume**: Overall passenger volume increased by 5.2% year-on-year from January to September 2025, with international routes showing a significant recovery [4][15]. - **High Load Factors**: The airline sector maintains high load factors, with expectations for continued improvement in ticket prices [13][15]. - **Airline Recommendations**: China Eastern Airlines is highlighted as a strong investment opportunity due to its rapid recovery and performance exceeding pre-pandemic levels [4][19]. - **Cost Pressures Eased**: Low oil prices and favorable exchange rates have alleviated cost pressures for airlines, contributing to improved profitability [18][21]. - **Future Pricing Trends**: Ticket prices are expected to improve in the fourth quarter, although a potential decline may occur post-Spring Festival due to weaker business demand [16][21]. Duty-Free Industry - **Sales Growth**: The duty-free sector has shown consistent sales growth, with Hainan's offshore duty-free sales achieving positive growth for the first time in 18 months [11][12]. - **Policy Optimizations**: Recent policy changes in Hainan are expected to gradually release demand, positively impacting revenue and profit recovery for the end of the year and into 2026 [12]. Additional Important Insights - **Market Sentiment**: There is a growing market interest in the travel-related sectors, with data indicating sustained performance beyond holiday effects [3]. - **Investment Focus**: The hotel and duty-free sectors are identified as new consumption hotspots driven by fundamental improvements, with upcoming meetings in December and March expected to provide further insights into consumer demand [22]. - **Airport Performance**: Airports like Shanghai and Baiyun are benefiting from increased air traffic, with significant year-on-year growth in passenger numbers [20][21]. This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the hotel, airline, and duty-free industries.