Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the chemical industry, with specific buy and hold recommendations for various companies [2][20]. Core Insights - The report highlights the closure of Dow's organic silicon production capacity in Barry, UK, which is expected to increase domestic export demand and support the upstream industrial silicon costs, indicating a potential reversal in the organic silicon industry [4][5]. - The demand for high-end AI PCBs is projected to surge due to the continuous growth in computing power requirements, driven by GPU, ASIC, and 800G switch technologies [4]. - The report notes that the recent tariff announcements from the US on imports from Southeast Asia are lower than expected, stabilizing pessimistic market sentiments [4]. Industry Dynamics - The macroeconomic outlook for the chemical industry indicates a significant increase in oil supply led by non-OPEC countries, with a stable global GDP growth rate of 2.8% [5]. - The report mentions that coal prices are expected to decline in the medium to long term, alleviating pressure on downstream sectors [5]. - Natural gas exports from the US are anticipated to accelerate, potentially lowering import costs [5]. Company Recommendations - Companies to watch in the organic silicon sector include Dongyue Silicon Materials, Xin'an Chemical, and Xingfa Group [4]. - In the PCB sector, recommended companies include Shengquan Group, Dongcai Technology, Lianrui New Materials, Yake Technology, Tiancheng Technology, and Jiuri New Materials [4]. - For traditional cyclical stocks, the report suggests focusing on leading companies in various segments such as Wanhu Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, and Baofeng Energy [4]. Price Trends - The report provides specific price movements for various chemical products, such as PTA prices decreasing by 2.8% to 4715 RMB/ton, while MEG prices increased by 0.7% to 4409 RMB/ton [11]. - Urea prices rose by 2.9% to 1800 RMB/ton, while phosphate prices remained stable [12]. - The report notes that the price of DMC increased by 1.9% to 11000 RMB/ton, indicating a recovery in the organic silicon market [15].

Summary of Meihua Biological Conference Call Company Overview - Meihua Biological is a leading player in the amino acid industry, benefiting from domestic policies aimed at reducing soybean meal dependency and the growing demand for animal protein. Despite the current low industry sentiment, the company maintains strong cash flow and self-sustaining capabilities, solidifying its market position [2][4]. Key Developments - The company completed the acquisition of Xiehe Fermentation, which was below market expectations. This acquisition fills the gap in the pharmaceutical amino acid segment and adds new product lines, aiding in navigating overseas trade barriers and expanding its growth avenues [2][6]. - Meihua Biological emphasizes shareholder returns through dividends and ongoing buybacks, maintaining over 2 billion in buybacks and dividends annually for the past three years, supported by a disciplined capital expenditure strategy [2][7]. Product and Market Insights - The primary business focuses on amino acid products, including lysine, threonine, valine, and flavor enhancers like MSG, as well as xanthan gum. These products are widely used in various sectors, including animal nutrition, food flavor optimization, and medical nutrition [3][9]. - The amino acid industry is driven by domestic policies to reduce soybean import reliance and increasing consumer demand for animal protein. Although the industry is currently experiencing low sentiment, Meihua Biological continues to exhibit strong cash flow and self-sustaining capabilities [4]. Financial Performance - From 2020 to 2022, the company experienced rapid revenue and profit growth. However, due to falling corn prices, a decline in major product prices is expected in 2023-2024, leading to a revenue and profit adjustment. Nonetheless, sales growth is expected to offset revenue declines, with a significant net profit increase in Q1 of this year [5][11]. - The company anticipates being at the bottom of the industry cycle in 2024, with a recovery in mainstream amino acid product sentiment expected in the second half of the year. The projected P/E ratio for next year is around ten times, indicating a relatively high value and low-risk investment point [5][29]. Capacity Expansion Plans - The company added 600,000 tons of lysine capacity, expected to be operational by October this year. Plans for expanding threonine capacity are also in place, contingent on market conditions. Overall, the expansion pace is cautious, with continuous sales growth reinforcing its leading position [10][28]. Shareholder Returns and Capital Expenditure - Meihua Biological prioritizes shareholder returns, maintaining a buyback and dividend amount exceeding 2 billion annually, even during profit declines. The capital expenditure remains controlled, allowing for approximately 2 billion available for dividends [7][14]. - The company’s cash flow remains robust, with over 4.5 billion in annual net cash flow expected, despite a projected decline in net profit levels in 2024 [14]. Industry Trends and Demand - The amino acid industry is expected to grow due to increasing health and nutrition demands, with amino acid feed additives outpacing overall industrial feed growth. Policies aimed at reducing soybean meal usage are projected to decrease soybean demand significantly [16][17]. - The demand for lysine and threonine is expected to rise as alternatives to soybean meal are sought, although current profitability in the pig farming sector may limit immediate demand growth [18][20]. Competitive Landscape - The threonine market is highly concentrated, with the top four companies holding approximately 75% to 80% of the market share, allowing for strong pricing power. In contrast, the lysine market has many smaller players, leading to lower average profitability [20]. Future Outlook - Meihua Biological is expected to maintain a revenue growth rate of around 10% annually, with the industry entering a relatively stable phase with conditions for rebound [25][29]. - The company’s strategic acquisition of Xiehe Fermentation is anticipated to enhance its product offerings and market positioning, particularly in the pharmaceutical sector, which has higher profit margins compared to animal nutrition products [24][28].

Group 1 - The core index of the CSI Hong Kong-Shanghai-Shenzhen Connect Small Cap Consumer Index reported at 5488.14 points, showing a decline of 1.54% over the past month, an increase of 2.05% over the past three months, and a year-to-date increase of 3.77% [1] - The CSI Hong Kong-Shanghai-Shenzhen industry index series categorizes the CSI 500, CSI Hong Kong-Shanghai-Shenzhen Connect Small Cap Composite, and CSI Hong Kong-Shanghai-Shenzhen Connect Composite Index into 11 industries to reflect the overall performance of different industry companies [1] - The top ten holdings of the CSI Hong Kong-Shanghai-Shenzhen Connect Small Cap Consumer Index include Meihua Biological (2.53%), Zhengbang Technology (2.43%), Yanjing Beer (2.2%), Anjii Food (1.83%), Maogeping (1.79%), Hengan International (1.76%), Dabeinong (1.66%), Dekang Animal Husbandry (1.64%), First Pacific (1.57%), and Bairun Co. (1.55%) [1] Group 2 - The market share of the CSI Hong Kong-Shanghai-Shenzhen Connect Small Cap Consumer Index holdings is 41.28% from Shanghai Stock Exchange, 41.17% from Shenzhen Stock Exchange, and 17.55% from Hong Kong Stock Exchange [2] - The industry composition of the CSI Hong Kong-Shanghai-Shenzhen Connect Small Cap Consumer Index holdings shows that food accounts for 32.70%, breeding for 20.94%, liquor for 17.06%, planting for 8.99%, beauty care for 6.79%, soft drinks for 6.78%, and household goods for 6.75% [2] - The index sample is adjusted every six months, with adjustments implemented on the next trading day after the second Friday of June and December each year [2]

Core Viewpoint - The corn starch industry in China is a crucial pillar of the agricultural product deep processing sector, exhibiting a mature supply-demand system with a balanced state in 2024, where production is projected to reach 37.99 million tons and apparent demand at 37.97 million tons, indicating a tight balance overall [1][13]. Group 1: Industry Overview - The corn starch industry has established a stable supply-demand structure, with production and demand closely aligned, reflecting a trend of "stable total volume and optimized structure" [1][13]. - The industry is transitioning from traditional scale expansion to high-quality development, with an increasing proportion of high-value-added products, demonstrating resilience [1][13]. - The corn starch is derived from corn kernels through various processes and is categorized into three types: regular corn starch, modified starch, and specialty corn starch, widely used in food processing, pharmaceuticals, textiles, and biodegradable materials [2][4]. Group 2: Policy Support - Recent national policies have significantly supported the corn starch industry, emphasizing green manufacturing and high-end product development, with specific encouragement for bio-based products and functional food additives [4]. - Local governments are also promoting the development of the corn starch deep processing industry, aiming for a stable planting area and a substantial industry scale by 2027 [4]. Group 3: Industry Chain - The corn starch industry in China features a complete industrial chain with a "dispersed upstream, concentrated midstream, and diversified downstream" structure [6]. - The midstream processing segment is highly concentrated, with key regions like Shandong and Hebei forming industrial clusters, while downstream applications are diversifying into traditional and emerging sectors [6]. Group 4: Market Dynamics - The corn production in China is vital, with a total output exceeding 294.92 million tons in 2024, accounting for over 40% of the total grain production, supported by increased planting area and yield [9]. - The demand for corn starch is robust across various sectors, with the food industry being the largest consumer, followed by starch sugar, paper, pharmaceuticals, and chemicals [11]. Group 5: Competitive Landscape - The competitive landscape of the corn starch industry is characterized by a concentration of leading firms, with the top five companies holding approximately 45% market share, while smaller firms focus on niche markets [19]. - The industry is evolving towards a "technology-driven, chain collaboration, and scenario-focused" competitive model, with leading companies integrating their operations from corn to starch to bio-based materials [19]. Group 6: Future Trends - The corn starch industry is undergoing a transformation driven by technological innovation, with advancements in smart manufacturing and green production methods [21]. - Market demand is shifting towards high-end and diversified applications, particularly in biodegradable materials and health-oriented products, with significant growth expected in these areas [22][23]. - The industry is also seeing increased integration and globalization, with leading firms expanding their operations and establishing a presence in international markets [24].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the Basic Chemicals and Oil & Gas sectors [5]. Core Insights - The overall price spread in the industry is weak, with the CCPI-oil price spread at approximately 558, below the 30% percentile since 2012, indicating a potential turning point in the industry as supply and demand begin to recover [1][14]. - Capital expenditure growth in the chemical raw materials and products industry has significantly declined, with a year-on-year increase of only 0.4% from January to May 2025, suggesting a self-adjustment phase in the supply side [2][31]. - The domestic PMI for June 2025 is reported at 49.7, indicating a slight recovery in demand, although uncertainties remain regarding tariff policies post-July 9 [2][16]. Summary by Sections Supply Side - The industry capital expenditure growth has dropped to a low level, indicating a potential turning point for supply-side adjustments, with expectations for a recovery starting in the second half of 2025 [2][31]. - The report highlights that the competitive intensity has increased, leading to a significant decline in profitability across most sub-sectors since the second half of 2022 [2][31]. Demand Side - The report notes a recovery in domestic PMI, but uncertainties regarding tariff policies may disrupt future export orders [2][16]. - The demand for chemical products is expected to improve in the medium to long term, supported by domestic economic recovery and growth in demand from regions like Asia, Africa, and Latin America [2][16]. Investment Strategy - The report suggests that the second half of 2025 may see an upward turning point, with a focus on resilient demand and improved supply dynamics [34]. - Specific recommendations include: - Oil & Gas: Favorable long-term prospects for high-dividend companies like China Petroleum [34]. - Bulk Chemicals: Attention on refrigerants and isocyanates, with recommendations for companies like Juhua Co., Luxi Chemical, and Wanhua Chemical [34]. - Downstream Products: Recommendations for companies like Meihua Biological Technology and Xinghuo Technology, anticipating recovery in downstream demand [34]. - Export-driven chemical products: Companies like Senqilin and Sailun Tire are highlighted for their competitive advantages in exports [34]. - High-dividend assets: Companies like Hengli Petrochemical are recommended for their potential to increase dividend payouts [34].

Core Viewpoint - The corn industry is a strategic pillar for China's food security, with significant growth in planting area, yield, and total production expected in 2024, despite short-term market adjustments due to international price fluctuations and rising costs [1][8][14]. Group 1: Industry Overview - The corn processing industry in China has developed a complete industrial chain, from primary processing to modern biobased material research, becoming a key hub for agricultural production and industrial manufacturing [1][5][14]. - Corn processing can be categorized into primary processing and deep processing, producing various products for food, feed, and industrial applications [2][3][5]. Group 2: Current Development Status - In 2024, China's corn planting area is projected to reach 44.74 million hectares, a year-on-year increase of 1.18%, with a yield of 439.4 kg/mu, contributing to a total production of 294.92 million tons, a 2.1% increase from the previous year [1][8][10]. - The total corn consumption in 2024 is expected to reach 31.78 million tons, with industrial consumption growing by 3.07% to 7.94 million tons, driven by innovations in deep processing [12][14]. Group 3: Market Trends - The corn deep processing market size is expected to adjust to 190 billion yuan in 2024, down 6.4% from its peak in 2022, but the long-term growth trend remains solid [1][14]. - The corn processing industry is transitioning towards green and low-carbon practices, focusing on high-value product development such as polylactic acid and functional sugars [24][25][26]. Group 4: Competitive Landscape - The corn deep processing industry in China has a tiered competitive structure, with leading companies like COFCO Technology and Meihua Biological occupying the top tier, focusing on high-value products [20][22]. - The market for corn starch is highly concentrated, with top companies holding over 44% market share, and there is a trend towards differentiation and expansion into biobased materials and other emerging fields [22][24].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the pig price is expected to maintain a central level above 15 yuan/kg in 2025 due to limited supply growth and cautious breeding practices [1][2] - The industry is experiencing a supply gap, with a notable increase in piglet losses due to a virus mutation, which is expected to drive up pig prices in Q3 2025 [1] - Recent government policies aim to regulate the pig industry, including measures to curb low-price competition and promote the orderly exit of outdated production capacity [1][2] Group 2 - The pig price is under significant downward pressure in H2 2025, but multiple government policies are expected to support price increases and alleviate CPI pressure [2] - The overall investment logic in the pig sector is improving due to supply contraction and macroeconomic catalysts, suggesting a positive outlook for investment [2] - The CSI Livestock Breeding Index reflects the performance of listed companies involved in livestock feed, veterinary drugs, and breeding, with the top ten weighted stocks accounting for 65.27% of the index [2]

Core Viewpoint - Meihua Biotech has successfully completed the acquisition of the amino acid business and assets from Concord Fermentation, enhancing its product and business structure in the synthetic biology sector [1]. Group 1: Acquisition Details - The acquisition was finalized on July 1, 2025, with a transaction price of approximately 16.8 billion Japanese yen, equivalent to about 833 million RMB [1]. - The final transaction price was adjusted based on the cash reserves and working capital of the target assets at the time of closing, which included an estimated cash amount of 11.3 billion Japanese yen (approximately 560 million RMB) [1]. - Concord Fermentation is recognized as a leader in biotechnology and fermentation, focusing on high-quality amino acids and other synthetic biology products [1]. Group 2: Business Expansion - The acquisition allows Meihua Biotech to diversify its product offerings by adding various new amino acid products and strains, enhancing its fermentation and refinement capabilities for high-value pharmaceutical amino acids [1]. - The company will also gain production capabilities and intellectual property for three types of Human Milk Oligosaccharides (HMO) through the integration of a precision fermentation platform [1]. - The acquisition supports the company's strategy to expand its industrial footprint internationally by acquiring multiple domestic and foreign operational entities [1]. Group 3: Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the feed amino acid segment generated revenue of 2.939 billion RMB, accounting for approximately 46.9% of total revenue, marking a year-on-year increase of 6.68% [2]. - The growth in this segment is attributed to the rise in both volume and price of lysine, as well as increased sales of threonine, positioning it as a potential new growth driver for the company [2].

Core Viewpoint - Meihua Biotechnology is advancing steadily in the synthetic biology sector through diversified expansion and deepening development, highlighted by its recent acquisition of assets from Kyowa Hakko Bio, which will enhance its amino acid product lines and operational capabilities [1][2]. Group 1: Acquisition Details - The acquisition agreement between Meihua Biotechnology and Kyowa Hakko Bio is set to be completed by July 1, 2025, with a final transaction value of approximately 16.8 billion yen, equivalent to about 833 million yuan [1]. - The cash reserves of the target assets are estimated at around 11.3 billion yen, or approximately 560 million yuan, as of June 30, 2025 [1]. Group 2: Product and Market Expansion - Post-acquisition, the company will introduce various new amino acids and fermentation strains, including arginine, histidine, serine, citrulline, ornithine, and hydroxyproline, along with patents related to these amino acids [2]. - The transaction will enable the company to extend its industrial chain, enhancing its fermentation and refinement capabilities for high-value pharmaceutical-grade amino acids [2]. Group 3: Strategic Positioning - Meihua Biotechnology aims to implement its overseas development strategy through this acquisition, gaining multiple domestic and international production entities [2]. - The company will also acquire the ability to produce three types of HMO products through a precision fermentation platform, along with the associated intellectual property rights [2]. Group 4: Industry Background - Kyowa Hakko Bio has a long-standing reputation in the global synthetic biology field, with over 70 years of technological expertise and numerous patents in amino acid and HMO product development [3]. - The company has successfully commercialized various amino acids and HMO products, including 2'-fucosyllactose, 3'-sialyllactose, and 6'-sialyllactose [3]. Group 5: Financial Performance - Meihua Biotechnology reported a revenue of 25.069 billion yuan and a net profit of 2.74 billion yuan for 2024, with a significant year-on-year growth of 35.52% in net profit for the first quarter of 2025 [3].

Core Insights - The acquisition of assets from Kiri Holdings by Meihua Biological has been successfully completed, with a final transaction price of approximately 16.8 billion yen, equivalent to about 833 million yuan [1] - The acquisition will enhance Meihua Biological's business structure, product offerings, and industry layout, particularly in the high-value-added pharmaceutical amino acid sector [2] Group 1: Acquisition Details - The acquisition includes food amino acids, pharmaceutical amino acids, and human milk oligosaccharides (HMO) business and assets [1] - The final transaction price was adjusted based on the cash reserves and working capital of the acquired assets, with an estimated cash reserve of about 11.3 billion yen, or approximately 560 million yuan [1] Group 2: Business Expansion - Post-acquisition, Meihua Biological will gain access to various new amino acid strains and patents, enhancing its fermentation and refinement capabilities [2] - The company will also introduce production capabilities for three types of HMO products and strengthen its intellectual property system [2] Group 3: Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the feed amino acid segment generated revenue of 2.939 billion yuan, accounting for approximately 46.9% of total revenue, marking a year-on-year increase of 6.68% [2] - The segment is expected to become a new growth driver for the company, following its transformation from a "monosodium glutamate king" to a "synthetic biology giant" [2] Group 4: Market Outlook - Institutional investors maintain a positive outlook on Meihua Biological, with projected net profit for 2024 at 2.740 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.85% [3] - However, Q1 2025 net profit reached 1.019 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 35.52% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 36.72%, indicating robust performance and future growth potential [3]