股 票 研 究 公司将积极应诉，海外布局加速推进 梅花生物(600873) 公司公告点评 | [Table_Finance] 财务摘要(百万元) | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入 | 27,761 | 25,069 | 26,389 | 28,297 | 30,048 | | (+/-)% | -0.6% | -9.7% | 5.3% | 7.2% | 6.2% | | 净利润(归母) | 3,181 | 2,740 | 3,200 | 3,456 | 3,728 | | (+/-)% | -27.8% | -13.8% | 16.8% | 8.0% | 7.9% | | 每股净收益(元) | 1.13 | 0.98 | 1.14 | 1.23 | 1.33 | | 净资产收益率(%) | 22.5% | 18.8% | 20.2% | 19.8% | 19.3% | | 市盈率(现价&最新股本摊薄) | 9.14 | 10.61 | 9.09 | 8.41 | 7.8 ...

天风证券（601162）发布研报称，化工行业2025年前三季度营收及净利润同比增长，2025年第三季度营 收同比增长，利润率水平环比小幅提升，25Q3在建工程同比增速降幅环比进一步扩大，固定资产规模 同比增加。投资建议：周期相对底部或已至，关注供需边际变化行业。 (1)需求稳定，全球供给主导：三氯蔗糖、农药、MDI、氨基酸。(2)内需驱动，对冲关税冲击：制冷 剂、化肥(磷肥)、钾肥、复合肥、民爆、染料。(3)关注产能先投放，有望优先恢复的子行业：有机硅、 氨纶。 天风证券主要观点如下： 2025年前三季度营收及净利润同比增长 2025年前三季度，基础化工行业上市公司(根据申万2021一级分类基础化工行业以及轮胎行业(长江分类) 上市公司合计446家)共实现营业收入1.71万亿元，同比增长2.8%，实现营业利润1424亿元，同比增长 6.9%，实现归属上市公司股东的净利润1140亿元，同比增长7.5%。行业整体综合毛利率为13.0%，同比 持平;期间费用率为9.6%，同比-0.1pcts。行业整体净利润率为7.0%，同比提升0.3pcts。 2025年第三季度基础化工行业全体上市公司共实现营业收入5823亿元， ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "in line with the market" [2][56] Core Insights - The global sports nutrition market is projected to grow from 188.13 billion yuan in 2025 to 306.47 billion yuan by 2032, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.22% [5][8] - The Chinese sports nutrition market is expected to grow from 9.71 billion yuan in 2024 to 20.93 billion yuan by 2030, with a CAGR of 11.56% [5][9] - The market is characterized by a large and growing consumer base, with 71.4% of potential consumers preferring sports nutrition products [9] - The market is segmented into energy supplements, protein supplements, and recovery products, with energy supplements being the largest category [19][20] Market Size and Growth - The global sports nutrition market is expected to reach 188.13 billion yuan in 2025 and 306.47 billion yuan by 2032, with a CAGR of 7.22% [8] - The Chinese sports nutrition market is projected to grow from 9.71 billion yuan in 2024 to 20.93 billion yuan by 2030, with a CAGR of 11.56% [9][11] Consumer Demographics - The consumer base is divided into professional athletes and health-conscious individuals, with the latter group becoming the dominant force in the market [27] - The primary consumers are aged 25 to 45, making up over 80% of the market [28] Competitive Landscape - The global sports nutrition market is fragmented, with the top five companies holding only about 25% of the market share [32] - In China, the market concentration is higher, with the top three companies holding a combined market share of 70% [34] Sales Channels - Online sales account for 65% of the market, with e-commerce platforms like Tmall and JD.com being the main contributors [41] - Offline sales, including gyms and pharmacies, account for 35% of the market, with gyms being a significant sales point [41][45] Policy and Standards - The sports nutrition sector in China is supported by national health strategies and regulations, promoting the integration of fitness and health [48] - A comprehensive standard system is in place, including the GB 24154-2015 standard for sports nutrition products [49]

Market Performance - The new materials sector experienced an increase this week, with the new materials index rising by 1.11%, outperforming the ChiNext index by 0.46% [1] - Over the past five trading days, the synthetic biology index rose by 3.07%, while semiconductor materials fell by 4.58%, electronic chemicals decreased by 2.53%, biodegradable plastics increased by 3.46%, industrial gases dropped by 1.29%, and battery chemicals surged by 8.24% [1] Price Tracking - Amino acids prices showed mixed results: valine at 12,550 CNY/ton (up 1.21%), arginine at 21,500 CNY/ton (down 0.69%), tryptophan remained unchanged at 32,500 CNY/ton, and methionine at 20,250 CNY/ton (down 2.64%) [2] - Biodegradable materials prices remained stable for PLA (FY201 injection grade at 17,800 CNY/ton and PLA (REVODE201 film grade at 17,000 CNY/ton), while PBS decreased by 1.69% to 17,500 CNY/ton and PBAT fell by 0.51% to 9,800 CNY/ton [2] - Vitamins prices remained unchanged: vitamin A at 63,000 CNY/ton, vitamin E at 52,500 CNY/ton, vitamin D3 at 212,500 CNY/ton, calcium pantothenate at 42,000 CNY/ton, and inositol at 30,500 CNY/ton [2] - Industrial gases and wet electronic chemicals prices remained stable: UPSSS grade hydrofluoric acid at 11,000 CNY/ton and EL grade hydrofluoric acid at 6,100 CNY/ton [2] - In the plastics and fibers category, carbon fiber remained at 83,750 CNY/ton, polyester industrial yarn at 8,400 CNY/ton, and aramid at 81,800 CNY/ton (down 13.44%) [2] Investment Recommendations - The State Council released a white paper on "China's Action for Carbon Peak and Carbon Neutrality," emphasizing the focus on renewable energy such as wind power for future development [3] - The white paper projects that by 2030, China's cumulative installed wind power capacity will reach 1.3 billion kW, with expectations of 2 billion kW by 2035 and 5 billion kW by 2060 [3] - The wind power industry is expected to maintain a high prosperity pattern, presenting significant development opportunities for upstream materials, with recommendations to focus on companies like Times New Material and Mega Chip Color [3] Lithium Hexafluorophosphate Price Recovery - Lithium hexafluorophosphate, a key raw material for electrolytes, saw a price rebound, rising from a low of 50,000 CNY/ton to 121,500 CNY/ton as of November 7, 2025 [4] - The demand from the downstream electric vehicle and energy storage industries has surged, significantly increasing the procurement volume of lithium hexafluorophosphate by electrolyte manufacturers [4] - Despite leading companies operating at full capacity, the overall supply remains tight due to previous overcapacity leading to industry consolidation, suggesting potential for further price increases and recovery of profitability in the supply chain [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [9]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 18.22 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a decrease of 2.5% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders reached 3.03 billion yuan, an increase of 51.6% year-on-year. The net profit excluding non-recurring items was 2.02 billion yuan, up 14.2% year-on-year. In Q3 alone, the revenue was 5.93 billion yuan, down 1.7% year-on-year and 1.3% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of 1.26 billion yuan, showing a significant increase of 141.1% year-on-year and 67.8% quarter-on-quarter. The acquisition of Concord Biotech contributed approximately 780 million yuan to non-operating income [2][6]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2025, the company achieved a gross profit margin of 17.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points year-on-year and 4.4 percentage points quarter-on-quarter. The revenue from the feed amino acids segment was 2.53 billion yuan, down 12.0% year-on-year and 6.9% quarter-on-quarter. The revenue from the flavoring agents segment was 1.76 billion yuan, up 4.7% year-on-year and 0.5% quarter-on-quarter. The revenue from other businesses, including raw materials and seaweed sugar, was 400 million yuan, down 20.4% year-on-year and 13.2% quarter-on-quarter [12][12]. Market Outlook - The company completed the acquisition of Concord Biotech on July 1, 2025, which allows it to enter high-value-added markets, including pharmaceutical-grade amino acids. This acquisition enhances the product pipeline and supports the company's strategy to expand internationally [12][12]. Future Projections - The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 3.26 billion yuan, 2.55 billion yuan, and 3.08 billion yuan, respectively. The company is expected to benefit from an improving industry landscape and the establishment of a synthetic biology platform [12][12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the chemical industry [11] Core Insights - The chemical industry achieved a revenue of 1,947.86 billion yuan in Q1-Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 2.1%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 115.78 billion yuan, up 4.4% year-on-year [2][18] - In Q1-Q3 2025, 50.0% of the 30 chemical sub-industries reported year-on-year growth, increasing to 56.7% in Q3 2025 [2][28] - The report highlights a gradual recovery in the industry, with capital expenditures declining by 16.9% and 2.7% in 2024 and 2025 respectively, indicating a slowdown in expansion cycles [2][18] Summary by Sections Overall Operations - The chemical industry experienced a slight revenue increase with a profit growth rate surpassing revenue growth [18] - The gross profit margin for the industry was 16.8%, a year-on-year increase of 0.2 percentage points [18] - The report notes a continued downturn in the domestic real estate market and a slow recovery in consumption [2][18] Key Sub-Industries - **Fluorochemical**: Revenue reached 32.53 billion yuan in Q1-Q3 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 19.7% and net profit up 155.6% [9][41] - **Phosphate Chemical**: Revenue was 82.38 billion yuan, down 4.0% year-on-year, but net profit increased by 8.0% to 7.55 billion yuan [49][50] - **Potash Fertilizer**: Revenue grew by 13.1% to 20.77 billion yuan, with net profit rising 57.6% to 9.44 billion yuan [9] - **Pesticides**: Revenue reached 124.65 billion yuan, up 5.6%, with net profit increasing by 131.2% to 6.38 billion yuan [9] - **Soda Ash**: Revenue fell by 15.7% to 30.16 billion yuan, with net profit down 71.5% to 0.99 billion yuan [9] - **Polyurethane**: Revenue decreased by 1.9% to 163.35 billion yuan, with net profit down 16.5% to 9.51 billion yuan [9] - **Titanium Dioxide**: Revenue was 32.92 billion yuan, down 4.2%, with net profit down 46.3% to 1.74 billion yuan [9] - **Polyester Filament**: Revenue decreased by 5.0% to 118.94 billion yuan, but net profit increased by 38.0% to 2.42 billion yuan [9] - **Additives**: Revenue grew by 3.8% to 89.06 billion yuan, with net profit up 30.0% to 12.35 billion yuan [9] - **Civil Explosives**: Revenue increased by 16.6% to 48.83 billion yuan, with net profit up 8.2% to 3.60 billion yuan [9] - **Tires**: Revenue grew by 10.7% to 119.98 billion yuan, but net profit decreased by 17.3% to 9.89 billion yuan [9] - **Electronic Chemicals**: Revenue reached 52.97 billion yuan, up 13.1%, with net profit increasing by 22.4% to 6.05 billion yuan [9] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests actively positioning in the chemical sector, highlighting cyclical recovery and potential growth in various sub-industries [10][39]

Core Insights - The Chinese special medical food market is expected to reach 23.42 billion yuan by 2027, supported by increasing government policy backing and improved regulations [1][4] - Amino acids, as a core raw material for special medical foods, are poised to benefit significantly from the growth of this market [1][4] Industry Overview - The amino acid industry is experiencing rapid growth due to rising global demand for nutrition and health, particularly in developed economies [1] - Amino acids are essential components of proteins and are widely used in feed, food, and pharmaceuticals [1] Market Dynamics - The supply of raw materials for amino acid production is abundant, with China being a major corn producer, projected to yield 291 million tons in 2024 [3] - The feed sector is the largest application area for amino acids, with China's feed production expected to reach 316 million tons in 2024, making it the largest feed producer globally [3] Regulatory Environment - Recent policy changes, including the 2023 revision of the Special Medical Food Registration Management Measures, have streamlined the approval process, reducing it to 18 months and allowing for expedited reviews [4] - The inclusion of special medical foods in health insurance coverage in various cities is expected to enhance market penetration [4] Company Spotlight - Wuxi Jinghai (920547.BJ) is highlighted as a "small giant" in the pharmaceutical amino acid industry, holding over 30% market share domestically and establishing partnerships with global companies like Nestlé and Fresenius Kabi [2] Future Trends - The demand for pharmaceutical-grade amino acids is anticipated to grow due to the increasing domestic production of cell culture media, which are essential for biopharmaceutical manufacturing [5] - The expansion of applications in cell therapy and gene therapy is expected to drive further growth in the cell culture media market, thereby increasing the demand for amino acids [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" with a target price of 13.44 CNY [4][12]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the consolidation of Xiehe Fermentation will enhance earnings, with an expected increase in non-recurring gains of approximately 780 million CNY in the 2025 profit statement [12]. - The company is adapting to global competitive pressures by actively engaging in international trade negotiations, successfully reducing the EU anti-dumping tax rate on lysine from an initial 84.8% to a final rate of 47.7%, thereby improving price competitiveness [12]. - The company is accelerating its overseas capacity expansion, having completed the acquisition of Xiehe Fermentation's related businesses in Japan, which allows for an extension into high-value-added pharmaceutical-grade amino acids and enhances its international operational footprint [12]. Financial Summary - The total revenue for 2023 is projected at 27,761 million CNY, with a slight decrease of 0.6% compared to the previous year. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 3,181 million CNY, reflecting a significant decline of 27.8% [11]. - For the years 2025 to 2027, the net profit is forecasted to be 3,200 million CNY, 3,456 million CNY, and 3,728 million CNY respectively, indicating a recovery trend with growth rates of 16.8%, 8.0%, and 7.9% [11]. - The company maintains a net asset return rate of 22.5% for 2023, which is expected to decrease to 18.8% in 2024 before stabilizing around 19.3% by 2027 [11]. Market Data - The company's market capitalization is approximately 29,921 million CNY, with a 52-week stock price range of 9.14 to 11.65 CNY [5]. - The current price-to-earnings ratio is 9.41, which is projected to decrease to 8.03 by 2027, indicating a potential undervaluation compared to industry peers [11][14].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for Meihua Holdings Group, assigning a target price of 14.38 yuan based on a 11.5x PE for FY26 [3][13]. Core Insights - The company has successfully merged with Kyowa Hakko Bio, enhancing its product pipeline and extending its industrial chain into the high value-added pharmaceutical grade amino acid market. This merger is expected to contribute approximately 780 million yuan in non-operating income for 2025 [1][11]. - The company has actively reduced the anti-dumping duty rate on lysine in the European Union from an initial 84.8% to 47.7%, improving its product competitiveness [4][15]. - Ongoing projects, such as the Tongliao MSG production capacity upgrade and the Jilin lysine project, are expected to significantly expand the company's operational scale [4][15]. - Increased investment in R&D and the establishment of a pilot research platform are aimed at enhancing the efficiency of converting research into industrial applications, supporting rapid commercialization of new products [4][15]. Financial Forecasts - The projected net profits for Meihua Holdings Group are 3.255 billion yuan for 2025, 3.504 billion yuan for 2026, and 3.793 billion yuan for 2027, reflecting a growth trajectory [3][5]. - Total revenue is expected to increase from 25.069 billion yuan in 2024 to 29.659 billion yuan by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 6.1% [5][9]. - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to grow from 0.98 yuan in 2024 to 1.35 yuan in 2027 [5][9]. Comparable Company Valuation - The report includes a comparison of Meihua Holdings Group's valuation with peers, indicating a favorable position with a lower PE ratio compared to some competitors, suggesting potential for price appreciation [6].

Company Update - MeiHua Bio's Singapore subsidiary signed a share and asset purchase agreement with Kirin Holdings' wholly-owned subsidiary, Kyowa Hakko Bio Co., Ltd., to acquire its food amino acids, pharmaceutical amino acids, and human milk oligosaccharides (HMO) business for 10.5 billion JPY (approximately 500 million RMB) in cash [1] - The transaction price is approximately 16.8 billion JPY (about 833 million RMB) based on the cash retention of the target assets and working capital adjustments as of the closing date, with the asset transfer completed by July 2025 [1] Commentary - The acquisition of high-quality assets at a low cost and its completion accelerates MeiHua Bio's global expansion [2] - The asset valuation report indicates that the total equity value of the acquired businesses is estimated at 1.626 billion RMB, making the transaction price of 833 million RMB particularly cost-effective [2] - The company expects to recognize an increase in non-operating income of approximately 780 million RMB in the 2025 consolidated profit statement, enhancing certainty in overseas expansion [2] - The acquisition expands the amino acid product pipeline and extends into the high-value pharmaceutical-grade amino acid market, while also increasing production entities in Thailand and North America, thereby enhancing global competitiveness [2] Profit Forecast and Valuation - Considering the non-operating income from the transaction but a decline in amino acid market conditions, the profit forecast for 2025 is raised by 7% to 3.37 billion RMB, while the 2026 profit forecast remains unchanged at 3.2 billion RMB [3] - The current stock price corresponds to 8.9 times the 2025 earnings and 9.3 times the 2026 earnings [3] - The target price remains at 13.7 RMB, corresponding to 11.4/12.0 times the earnings for 2025/26, with a potential upside of 28%, maintaining an outperform rating in the industry [3]