公司2025年第一季度IQOS HTU出货量达371亿支，同比增长11.9%，从销量占比来看，2025年第一季度 IQOS烟弹占公司总出货量(包含传统卷烟)的20.40%。IQOS在卷烟和HTU行业市场份额增长1.0个百分 点，市场份额超过9%，其作为现有市场第二大尼古丁品牌的整体地位得到进一步巩固，在全球加热不 燃烧品类里占据了约77%的市场份额。 天风证券主要观点如下： 菲莫国际25Q1新型烟草业务高速增长 智通财经APP获悉，天风证券发布研报称，近日，雷诺烟草500万美元收购12款PMTA在审电子烟，对 雷诺这种注重合规与长期布局的传统大烟草公司而言，收购这类产品无异于是获取合法市场准入的潜在 捷径。未来如果哪家公司能手握PMTA进展到实质性审核阶段的产品，将有很大可能因拥有合规资产成 为巨头并购热点，交易估值或进一步攀升。此外，随着美国新型烟草市场监管趋严，PMTA资产正在成 为全球烟草公司重点争夺的合规资源。业内预计，类似的并购交易将继续升温。 根据天鉴雾化产品合规实验室，2025年4月17日，查理控股公司(CHUC,Charlie's Holdings,Inc.)提交给美 国证券交易委员会(SEC ...

风险提示：养殖疫病风险、价格波动风险、市场系统性风险、测算具有一定主观性、出栏量不及预期风 险。 2)增重利润决定临界出栏均重，季节性等需求因素产生扰动。决定散户是否销售生猪的机制是若其商品 猪延后一天出栏，该天是否有超额收益，即当日收益是否为正。当压栏边际收益(当日售价-当日增重成 本)为负时，压栏猪只或将集中释放，核心触发条件为猪价与出栏均重坐标跌破临界出栏均重曲线。而 饲养温度及原材料价格影响料肉比进而影响增重成本、标肥需求影响销售均价，以上因素共同导致增重 利润产生波动。 2、现阶段如何看待行业压栏、二次育肥? 1)供应阶段性缺口&库存需求驱动春节后猪价偏强。供应端：集团场2024年10-12月提前超量出栏(完成 率104%-106%)，阶段性透支年后供应，叠加散户春年前集中出售大猪，导致春节后大猪缺口显著，标 肥价差上行，刺激新一轮压栏，出栏均重持续增长。2)需求端：屠宰场因库容低位主动分割入库，3月 轮储2.27万吨，叠加二育资金进场(4月中旬二育销量占比9.73%，栏位利用率升至45%)，带动短期猪价 震荡偏强。 2)库存累积与需求转弱埋下抛售隐患。供应压力加剧：截至2025年3月小猪(50kg ...

Industry Overview - The lawn mower market is primarily concentrated in North America and Europe, with traditional lawn mower shipments reaching approximately 25 million units in 2021, while global robotic lawn mower sales were 1.1 million units in 2022. Assuming a growth rate of 28% for 2023 and 2024, global robotic lawn mower sales could approach 1.8 million units, with a penetration rate of less than 10% [1] - The average lawn area in Europe is 300-400 square meters, while in the U.S. it is 600-1000 square meters. The penetration rate of robotic mowers in Europe, excluding the UK, remained above 15% in 2021, with the Northwest region reaching 50-60%. In contrast, the UK and U.S. penetration rates are still below 5%, indicating the industry is in its early stages [2] Competitive Landscape - Major players in the global smart robotic lawn mower market include Sweden's Husqvarna Group (including Husqvarna and Gardena) and China's Worx, which together account for approximately 90% of global robotic lawn mower shipments. The sales of Ninebot's robotic lawn mowers have rapidly increased, with 37,000 units sold in 2023 and revenue of 595 million yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-over-year growth of 379% [2] Economic Viability - Although the purchase cost of robotic lawn mowers is higher than that of electric and gasoline mowers, their subsequent costs are competitive. For a 500 square meter lawn, the purchase price of a robotic mower is about 1,000 euros, compared to 200 euros plus 50 euros for an electric mower and 300 euros plus 20 euros for a gasoline mower. After two years of use, the overall cost of robotic mowers becomes lower than that of electric and gasoline mowers [3] Technological Advancements - The integration of RTK and VSLAM technologies enhances the efficiency of robotic lawn mowers by improving navigation, positioning, and obstacle avoidance. VSLAM addresses signal interference from obstacles, while RTK compensates for environmental disturbances such as rain and dust. Ninebot's EFLS combines satellite positioning with signals from multiple sensors for real-time navigation, addressing low mowing efficiency and complex setup issues [4] Product Comparison - Robotic lawn mowers in the European market offer a cost-performance advantage, with Ninebot's models starting at 999 euros, compared to Husqvarna's boundary-free models starting at 2,148 euros. In the U.S., Segway's Navimow X3 series will be released in spring 2025, featuring innovative designs and faster mowing speeds for areas up to 10,000 square meters [6]

宏观要闻国务院最新批复：同意 据中国政府网消息，国务院发布关于同意在海南全岛和秦皇岛等15个城市(地区)设立跨境电子商务综合试验区的批复(简称"批复")。 批复称，同意在海南全岛和秦皇岛市、保定市、二连浩特市、丹东市、滁州市、三明市、开封市、新乡市、鄂州市、邵阳市、梧州市、北海市、防城港 市、广安市、博尔塔拉蒙古自治州等15个城市(地区)设立跨境电子商务综合试验区，名称分别为中国(城市或地区名)跨境电子商务综合试验区，具体实施 方案由所在地省级人民政府分别负责印发。同时，撤销在海口市、三亚市、阿拉山口市设立的跨境电子商务综合试验区。 由降转增！国家统计局最新公布 4月27日，国家统计局公布数据显示，一季度，全国规模以上工业企业利润由上年全年同比下降3.3%转为增长0.8%。国家统计局工业司统计师于卫宁表 示，一季度政策效应持续释放，带动工业企业利润由降转增，装备制造业、高技术制造业利润支撑作用明显，工业经济发展质效持续提升。李家超发声： 香港将部署为内地企业提供供应链服务 近期，美国对全球多地加征所谓"对等关税"，其中，对中国内地及中国香港和澳门地区加征同样的关税，扰乱全球贸易秩序，为市场带来多重挑战。 香港 ...

天风证券（601162）股份有限公司鲍荣富,王涛,林晓龙近期对上峰水泥（000672）进行研究并发布了研究报告 《24年分红提升亮眼，25Q1连续两季度利润同比大增，新五年规划开启"双轮驱动"新征程》，给予上峰水泥买 入评级。 上峰水泥 主业来看，24年公司实现水泥及熟料收入同比-10.8%达47.64亿元，销量同比-3.3%达2075万吨，测算吨均价同 比下降19元至230元，受煤炭成本下降以及公司成本控制较优影响，吨成本同比下降13元至175元，最终吨毛利 同比下降5.8元至55元，测算吨净利同比下降3元达18元。两翼来看，24年公司骨料/环保处置业务有下滑，收入 同比分别-35%/-39%达3.2/1.4亿元，毛利率同比分别-4.6/-18.3pct达66.2%/37.8%。新经济股权投资方面成效凸 显，逐步进入收获期，晶合集成项目已完成并获得投资收益1.66亿元，光智科技（300489）公告拟并购先导电 科，昂瑞微申报科创板上市获受理，中润光能申报港股上市获受理，上海超硅上市辅导通过验收，盛合晶微、 芯耀辉进入申报上市辅导阶段，截至24年底已投资24个优质项目累计投资额超过17亿元。公司发布25-29 ...

天风证券（601162）股份有限公司康志毅,唐海清,王奕红,陈汇丰近期对中国电信（601728）进行研究并发 布了研究报告《持续深入实施云改数转战略，经营业绩保持稳健》，给予中国电信增持评级。 中国电信 事件：公司发布2025年一季报，实现营收1345亿元，同比增长0.01%，服务收入为1247亿元，同比增长 0.3%，较24Q4环比增长4.6%；归母净利润89亿元，同比增长3.1%。 我们的点评如下： 分业务来看： 个人和家庭市场方面，中国电信坚持以客户为中心，积极把握数字技术驱动下的消费新趋势，加快移动网 络向5G-A升级，不断推动连接、终端、应用、权益等融合要素升级，强化AI、卫星、量子等战新要素赋 能个人及家庭端产品和服务，持续提升业务价值和客户感知。25Q1移动通信业务稳健发展，5G网络用户 数达到2.7亿户，渗透率提升至62.0%，手机上网总流量同比增长14.2%，手机上网DOU达到20.4GB，同比 增长9.1%。固网及智慧家庭业务保持良好增长，千兆宽带用户渗透率约30%，智慧家庭收入同比增长 11.5%。 战新业务方面，中国电信充分发挥云网融合优势，坚持网是基础、云为核心、安全为保障，把握人工 ...

本周软饮料/预加工食品/烘焙食品/零食板块涨幅居前。该行认为在关税战或有望继续的背景下，内需消 费行情应持续关注。零食方面，本周"魔芋"赛道标的表现居前，或主因魔芋品类需求仍处红利时期&零 食公司25Q2低基数下或迎潜在弹性，另外，绝味食品等公司推出AI模型，周黑鸭启动创新研发+渠道扩 张+出海三轮驱动等，新的业务模式和渠道有望带动公司业绩新增量，建议持续关注。2)乳制品方面， 该行认为生育/奶粉补贴等政策的持续推出、上游牛肉价格上行以及潜在上游原奶拐点逻辑或持续刺激 乳制品(上游牧场+下游乳企)弹性表现。大众品方面该行继续持续重点推荐乳制品和零食板块，同时食 品方面关注"餐饮"/"出海"/"原奶拐点"三大主题投资机会。在顺周期+成本下行逻辑下，大众品板块经营 有望迎来拐点。 啤酒&饮料：3月社零数据改善，东鹏Q1业绩超预期 本周啤酒板块-0.4%、软饮料板块+4.4%，康师傅(+7.4%)、东鹏(+6.3%)涨幅靠，或系业绩超预期+3月社 零数据改善。该行认为，气温已开始升高、旺季逐步来临，随着后续促消费政策落地，25年餐饮、夜场 需求有望好转，重视板块估值和基本面的修复。餐饮收入3月同比+5.6%(环比1 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent evaluation results of market makers by the National Equities Exchange and Quotations (NEEQ), highlighting the performance and ranking changes of various securities firms in the first quarter of 2025, with a focus on the shift towards the Beijing Stock Exchange (BSE) for market-making opportunities [2][3]. Group 1: Market Maker Evaluation Results - The NEEQ released the market maker evaluation results for Q1 2025, with Northeast Securities, Shanghai Securities, and Kaiyuan Securities ranking in the top 5% and receiving a 100% fee exemption [2]. - In the top 20% of the rankings, firms like Shanghai Securities, Tianfeng Securities, and Changjiang Securities saw improvements in their rankings compared to Q4 of the previous year [2][3]. - A total of 12 market makers received fee exemption qualifications, with 6 firms in the 10%-20% range receiving a 50% fee reduction, and 3 firms in the 5%-10% range receiving a 70% reduction [2]. Group 2: Strategic Adjustments by Securities Firms - Some securities firms are adjusting their market-making strategies in response to regulatory changes, focusing more on the BSE and reducing their involvement in the New Third Board market-making business [4]. - For instance, Hongta Securities has actively reduced its New Third Board market-making scale and is applying for qualifications to operate on the BSE, indicating a strategic shift towards more promising market opportunities [4]. - The report from Shichuang Securities noted that they have 23 market-making enterprises, ranking 15th in the industry, with a significant portion being innovative tier companies [4]. Group 3: Evaluation Criteria and Importance - The evaluation criteria for market makers include a total score of 100 points, with categories such as market-making scale, liquidity provision, and quote quality [5]. - The NEEQ emphasizes the importance of the market maker system in improving market liquidity, price discovery, and fostering a healthy market cycle, indicating ongoing efforts to optimize the evaluation and incentive mechanisms [5].

事件：2025年4月14日小鹏汽车在香港举办AI技术分享会，首次披露正在研发720亿参数的超大规模自 动驾驶大模型，也即"小鹏世界基座模型"。 同时正式发布2025款全新小鹏X9，并预告小鹏图灵AI芯片 将在第二季度量产上车、2025年底率先实现L3级智能驾驶落地、飞行汽车预计在2026年实现量产交 付、小鹏AI机器人Iron预计在2026年规模进入工业化量产。 智通财经APP获悉，天风证券发布研报称，作为具备全栈自研体系的主机厂，小鹏汽车-W(09868)后续 自研芯片、机器人、智驾、底座世界模型的节奏更为清晰。本次X9全球首发标配纯视觉版本、后排零 重力座椅，在35.98万起步价下该行预计销量有望超越上一代水平， 同时小鹏G7和下半年增程车型上新 周期或即将到来，重点关注全年产品力强劲同时定位和定价均有望持续超预期的小鹏。预计公司 2025/2026/2027年分别实现营收935.9/1402.2/1695.8亿元。维持"买入" 评级。 天风证券主要观点如下： X9全新纯电MPV发布，起售价仅35.98万 X9共发布四个版本，包括 650长续航Max、740超长续航Max、702四驱高性能Max以及星舰版 ...

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.11% on April 18, with 13 sectors experiencing gains, led by the communication and real estate sectors, which rose by 1.59% and 1.53% respectively [2] - The non-bank financial sector increased by 0.61%, while the beauty care and social services sectors saw declines of 2.46% and 2.45% respectively [2] Capital Flow Analysis - The main capital outflow from the two markets totaled 12.306 billion yuan, with 8 sectors seeing net inflows [2] - The communication sector had the highest net inflow of 2.501 billion yuan, followed by the real estate sector with a net inflow of 1.015 billion yuan [2] Non-Bank Financial Sector Performance - The non-bank financial sector saw a net inflow of 606 million yuan, with 69 out of 84 stocks in the sector rising [3] - The top three stocks by net inflow were Hainan Huatie with 402 million yuan, Tianfeng Securities with 280 million yuan, and China Galaxy with 108 million yuan [3] - The sector had 12 stocks that declined, with the largest outflows from Guolian Minsheng, CITIC Securities, and China Pacific Insurance, which saw outflows of 88.42 million yuan, 71.29 million yuan, and 68.20 million yuan respectively [3]