天风证券研报指出，五粮液2025H1营业收入/归母净利润分别为527.71/194.92亿元（同比 +4.19%/+2.28%）对应2025Q2：2025Q2公司营业收入/归母净利润分别为158.31/46.32亿元（同比 +0.10%/-7.58%）。量价看，酒类增长主由量升驱动，结构下行使得吨价下行（销量同比+44.59%/吨价 同比-27.89%），五粮液销量/吨价分别同比+12.75%/-7.25%，其他酒销量/吨价分别同比 +58.81%/-35.31%。费投加大利润短期承压，业绩蓄水池仍较充足。考虑当前行业仍处于调整期，下调 盈利预测，维持"买入"评级。 ...

格隆汇10月10日｜天风证券研报指出，松霖科技25H1大健康软硬件业务营收1.1亿，智能厨卫业务营收 10亿。正式进军机器人领域，内生外延发展并举。机器人业务主要包括护理服务机器人系统、后勤服务 机器人系统、AI陪伴机器人、人形机器人等领域。公司聚焦内生动力培育，一方面加大机器人研发团 队投入，增强研发与产品落地能力，另一方面有效利用多年在AI智能硬件、软件算法等方面相关技术 积累，实现迁移复用。情感体验方面，基于机器人表情与语音双模态情感交互，能实时捕捉用户情绪变 化，建立情感响应机制，打造有温度的"AI陪伴"新范式。调整盈利预测，维持"买入"评级。 ...

Core Insights - The report from Tianfeng Securities indicates that Taiping Bird's revenue for H1 2025 was 2.9 billion, a decrease of 8% year-on-year, with a net profit attributable to the parent company of 80 million, down 55% year-on-year [1] - In Q2 2025, the company's revenue was 1.2 billion, also down 8% year-on-year, with a net profit attributable to the parent company of -50 million [1] Group 1: Strategic Initiatives - Taiping Bird is implementing a "2-5-10" strategy focusing on product innovation, channel restructuring, technological empowerment, and digital transformation to drive brand upgrades [1] - The company aims to deepen its focus on "quality fashion" products over the next two years to stabilize its profit fundamentals [1] Group 2: Operational Focus - The company is enhancing the quality of store operations and improving profitability by continuously closing inefficient stores and shifting focus to enhance brand image and store efficiency [1] - Taiping Bird is clarifying the value positioning of its channels and expanding into key operational areas, adhering to the principles of "reducing layers, expanding area, and improving efficiency" for channel development [1] Group 3: Financial Projections - The company forecasts revenues of 6.8 billion, 7.1 billion, and 7.4 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits of 210 million, 340 million, and 400 million [1] - The previous projections for net profits were 390 million, 480 million, and 510 million for the same years [1] - Corresponding price-to-earnings ratios are projected to be 31x, 19x, and 16x for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [1]

Core Viewpoint - Hengdian East Magnetic achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.02 billion yuan in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 58.94% [1] - The company’s Q2 2025 net profit reached 562 million yuan, with a remarkable year-on-year growth of 94.80% [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company’s strategic focus is on strengthening its magnetic materials business and developing new energy [1] - The magnetic materials segment is experiencing steady growth, while new products like copper sheet inductors are expected to create new growth points [1] - Despite the backdrop of overcapacity in the photovoltaic sector, the company maintains high growth in shipment volume and continuous improvement in profitability [1] Group 2: Market Outlook - Due to the impact of U.S. tariffs on the company’s production capacity in Indonesia, the profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been slightly adjusted downwards [1] - The projected net profits attributable to shareholders for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 2.0 billion, 2.29 billion, and 2.55 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 16.9, 14.8, and 13.2 times [1] - The company maintains a "buy" rating despite the adjustments in profit forecasts [1]

固定收益 | 固定收益专题 利率专题 证券研究报告 国债新老券利差如何演绎？ 愈发难以博弈的国债新老券利差 理论上讲，新老券利差应为正值，且在上市初期、切券之后两个时间段出 现利差走阔，切券后一段时间利差达到峰值，随后回落至趋向于零。实际 来看规律逐渐"失效"。具体来看 10Y 和 30Y 国债的新老券利差表现： 1）上市与切券之后，新老券利差最大走阔幅度统计 平均来看，10Y（30Y）国债在上市后的 13（11）个交易日达到第一个利差 峰值，新老券利差最大走阔 1.85BP(1.27BP)；在上市后的 22(30)个交易日成 为活跃券，切券后 44(58)个交易日达到第二个利差峰值，新老券利差最大 走阔 3.07BP(4.31BP)。 不过，从最近的切券经验来看，对于有潜力成为活跃券的新券，市场会快 速参与并加快切券节奏，新老券利差的策略空间被压缩。例如，10Y 国债 250011 上市次日即完成切券，切券之后，新老券利差最大走阔幅度仅 0.45BP。30Y 特别国债 2500002 在上市的 8 个交易日后也顺利成为活跃券。 切券之后，新老券利差最大走阔幅度仅 2.95BP，也处于历史中等偏低水平。 新老 ...

天风证券指出，当前玻璃品种处于过去三年50%分位数以下，水泥高于玻璃，其中中国建材、海螺水 泥、金隅集团处于过去三年80%分位数左右水平，华润建材科技相对较低，而西部水泥、华新水泥相对 较高，此次上涨主要是低估值玻璃品种弹性相对更大。节前工业和信息化部等六部门联合发布《建材行 业稳增长工作方案（2025—2026年）》，该方案针对建材行业市场需求不振、结构性问题突出，明确 25-26年行业主要目标和工作举措。在当前建材反内卷的助力下，去产能有望加速推进，推动行业竞争 格局改善，叠加资金面环境进一步改善，继续看好建材低估值品种。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，天风证券发布研报称，25H1建材行业上市公司总计实现营收2709亿元，同 比-5.9%，Q2单季度同比降幅较Q1基本持平。25H1归母净利润143亿元，同比+23.9%，其中Q2单季度同 比增长30.2%，增幅较Q1扩大。天风证券认为在各项稳楼市政策的推动下，当前前端的地产销售企稳迹 象初显，近期中央再次强调更大力度地推动房地产市场止跌回稳，释放政策发力信号，地产基本面有望 逐步筑底。传统建材端水泥、涂料等品种盈利改善，非传统建材端玻纤业绩表现较优，建议重点关注。 天风证券主要观点如下： 建材行业25H1归母利润大幅改善，水泥、玻纤表现较优 25H1我们跟踪的建材行业上市公司总计实现营收2709亿元，同比-5.9%，Q2单季度同比降幅较Q1基本 持平。25H1归母净利润143亿元，同比+23.9%，其中Q2单季度同比增长30.2%，增幅较Q1扩大。上半年 建材行业收入下滑主要系传统需求仍然偏弱运行，利润增长主要系部分建材品种（如水泥）价格/成本 端改善以及新兴建材品种需求增长。我们认为在各项稳楼市政策的推动下，当前前端的地产销售企稳迹 象初显，近期中央再次强调更大力度地推动房地产市场止跌回 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the market is expected to gradually trend upwards, indicating a slow bull market supported by various factors [1][2] - The "anti-involution" trend this year emphasizes high-quality development and a focus on technology rather than price wars [1][2] - The market has shown a gradual improvement in profitability, with strong performance in certain industries and the discovery of value sectors [1] Group 2 - From a technical and capital perspective, the market appears robust, with wealth transfer among residents indicating stability [1] - Policy support is facilitating industry consolidation through mergers and acquisitions, allowing excellent companies to receive more funding [1][2] - The best performers in the past year have been leading companies, which have benefited from favorable capital market policies, enhancing their premium and driving industry growth [1] Group 3 - The capital market's role in servicing and activating the real economy is being emphasized, with strong policy support for market development [2] - Despite the ongoing impact of real estate on the economy, artificial intelligence is progressively driving structural improvements across various sectors [2] - A+H listings are on the rise, reflecting the country's openness to international capital and enhancing the international image of the capital market [2]

今年以来，市场赚钱效应逐步体现，赵晓光从多维度分享了本轮行情的驱动因素。赵晓光认为，首先， 从技术面和资本面角度，包括整个居民的财富转移都体现出市场非常稳健。一方面近期行业延续了非常 好的表现，另一方面，一些价值行业也逐步被市场挖掘。其次，目前政策有助于通过并购实现行业集中 度提高和行业稳定健康发展，让优秀企业获得更多的资金支持，市场通过更好的定价，发掘出优秀企 业。据赵晓光观察，过去一年最好的并不是小公司，而是龙头公司，在资本市场的政策下获得了更好的 溢价和支持，更好地带动了产业发展。 2025年"反内卷"成为中国经济的关键词。赵晓光认为，和2016年供给侧改革相比，这一轮"反内卷"本质 上促成我们整个产业向更加注重高质量发展，注重技术为核心，而不是简单地打价格战。 （文章来源：证券时报） 在第十九届上市公司价值评选专家评审会上，天风证券董事、研究所所长赵晓光从多维度分析了当前市 场行情的驱动因素，认为未来整个市场将是逐步向上的一个局面，慢牛行情具备基础。今年"反内卷"本 质是促成整个产业向高质量发展，注重技术为核心，而不是简单的价格战。 未来行情如何演绎？是否能走出市场期待的慢牛行情？赵晓光从基本面、政策 ...

Core Viewpoint - Junshi Bioscience reported a significant revenue increase and reduced net loss in H1 2025, driven by the performance of its flagship drug, Toripalimab, which is gaining traction in the domestic market with new indications approved [1] Financial Performance - In H1 2025, Junshi Bioscience's revenue reached 1.168 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of 48.64% [1] - The net loss for the same period was 413 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year reduction in loss by 36.01% [1] Product Development and Approvals - Toripalimab's domestic sales revenue was approximately 954 million yuan in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of about 42% [1] - The drug has received approval for a total of 12 indications in China, with two new indications added in 2025, including liver cancer and melanoma [1] - A supplemental new drug application (sNDA) for the combination treatment of HER2+ urothelial carcinoma has been accepted by NMPA [1] Clinical Trials and Research - The PD-1/VEGF dual antibody JS207 is currently in Phase II clinical trials, showing strong anti-tumor activity in preclinical studies [1] - The drug is being explored in combination therapies across various cancer types, including NSCLC, CRC, TNBC, and liver cancer [1] - The international clinical trial for BTLA in LS-SCLC has enrolled nearly 400 participants [1] International Expansion - Junshi Bioscience has established commercial partnerships in over 80 countries, including the EU and the UK, with approvals in 40 regions such as the US, EU, UK, and Australia [1] - The company achieved commercialization in the US and received approval for nasopharyngeal cancer treatment in Australia in January 2025 [1] Investment Rating - The company maintains a "Buy" rating based on its robust pipeline and market performance [1]