证券代码：601162 证券简称：天风证券 公告编号：2025-040号 天风证券股份有限公司 关于 2025 年半年度计提资产减值准备及 预计负债等事项的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈 述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 一、2025 年半年度计提资产减值准备 （一）公司计提资产减值准备情况概述 根据《企业会计准则》和公司会计政策的相关规定，为真实、公允地反映 公司截至 2025 年 6 月 30 日的财务状况和 2025 年上半年经营成果，公司及下属 子公司对截至 2025 年 6 月 30 日的各项需要计提减值的资产进行了预期信用损 失评估，2025 年半年度计提各项资产减值准备共计 309.12 万元，详见下表： 1.融出资金 根据《企业会计准则》和公司相关会计政策，2025 年半年度公司按照预期 信用损失模型冲回减值准备 43.27 万元。 2.买入返售金融资产 | 2025 | 年半年度计提资产减值准备 | 项目 | （单位：万元） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 融出资金 | -43.27 | | ...

证券代码：601162 证券简称：天风证券 公告编号：2025-039号 天风证券股份有限公司 2025年半年度业绩预盈公告 天风证券股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）预计2025年半年度实现归 属于母公司所有者的净利润为0.28亿元到0.33亿元，与上年同期（法定披露数据） 相比，将实现扭亏为盈。 公司2025年半年度的经营业绩符合《上海证券交易所股票上市规则》第 5.1.1条中"（二）净利润实现扭亏为盈"的情形。 一、本期业绩预告情况 （一）业绩预告期间 2025年1月1日至2025年6月30日。 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： （二）业绩预告情况 1、经财务部门初步测算，预计2025年半年度实现归属于母公司所有者的净 利润为人民币0.28亿元到0.33亿元，与上年同期相比，将实现扭亏为盈。 2、预计2025年半年度实现归属于母公司所有者的扣除非经常性损益后的净 利润为人民币0.22亿元到0.26亿元。 特此公告。 公司目前不存在影响本次业绩预告内容准确性的重大不确定因素。 二、上年同期经营业 ...

石化&化工产品细分品类多，只能抓龙头炼油和乙烯能力。 2016年8月，国务院办公厅印发《关于石化产业调结构促转型增效益的指导意见》，严控基础化工品、 炼化烯烃、煤化工等新建产能，以至于中国炼油能力增长比较和缓，一直到2024年之前并未出现明显的 过剩。但是2024年情况发生了变化，需求端出现了成品油达峰衰退。 乙烯和芳烃在"十三五"是比较鼓励的，一方面是2015年自给率还比较低，另一方面油转化比较符合成品 油需求达峰的预期。但是这造成了后续乙烯和的产能过剩。 因此主要化工品2025年上半年平均利润历史分位数均在50%以下，比如煤制丙烯、油头丙烯、乙烷裂 解、油头乙烯、PDH利润在历史10年的分位数分别为36%、36%、36%、27%、0%，合成氨利润在历史 5年的分位数分别为17%。 2025年反内卷的可能抓手 智通财经APP获悉，天风证券发布研报称，中国石化行业正面临结构性产能过剩挑战。2024年成品油需 求达峰衰退导致炼油能力过剩，而乙烯、芳烃等化工品因前期政策鼓励也出现产能过剩。2025年上半年 主要化工品利润分位数普遍低于50%，其中PDH利润更是跌至历史十年最低点(0%)。行业亟需通过淘汰 落后产能 ...

Summary of the Conference Call on Switch Industry and AI Computing Power Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **switch industry**, highlighting its critical role in network interconnection and the growing demand driven by data center construction [4][20]. - The global switch market is projected to grow significantly, with the top five manufacturers holding a substantial market share [4][68]. Key Points and Arguments Market Growth and Demand - The global switch market is expected to grow from **$61.9 billion in 2020** to **$96.8 billion by 2025**, with a **CAGR of 9.4%** [24]. - In China, the market is projected to increase from **¥116.8 billion in 2020** to **¥318 billion by 2025**, with a **CAGR of 22.2%** [24]. - The demand for switches is driven by the increasing data center construction and the need for higher data transfer rates [20][30]. Market Concentration - The top five global switch manufacturers, including **Cisco, Arista, Huawei, HPE, and Xinhua San**, hold **69.6%** of the market share, with Cisco leading at **35.9%** [4][68]. - In China, the top five manufacturers account for **89.7%** of the market, with Huawei at **32.4%** [4][68]. Technological Trends - **White-box technology** is emerging, allowing for hardware-software decoupling, which reduces acquisition and operational costs [31][35]. - The **CPO (Chip-Package-Optical)** switch technology is gaining traction, promising lower power consumption and higher efficiency [36][41]. Chip Market Dynamics - The global Ethernet switch chip market is expected to grow, with commercial vendors driving the majority of the growth [81][86]. - The market is currently dominated by overseas giants, indicating significant room for domestic alternatives [87]. Important but Overlooked Content - The report highlights the **risk factors** including the potential underdevelopment of AI applications, escalating US-China trade tensions, intensified market competition, and the risk of failure in new technology and product development [7]. - The **data center switch market** in China is expected to account for **51.7%** of the total switch market by 2026, indicating a growing reliance on data center infrastructure [30]. Recommendations - The report suggests monitoring companies such as **Sengke Communication, Yutai Micro, Ruijie Networks, Unisplendour, ZTE, and Feiling Kesi** for potential investment opportunities [6]. This summary encapsulates the essential insights from the conference call regarding the switch industry and its intersection with AI computing power, providing a comprehensive overview of market dynamics, technological advancements, and investment opportunities.

国内：6 月 PPI 跌幅走阔 1）6 月 CPI 同比回正，PPI 同比降幅走阔，PPI-CPI 剪刀差走阔。CPI 方面， 食品项同比降幅收窄，非食品项同比回升，核心 CPI 回升。PPI 生产资料降 幅走阔，生活资料持平。2）6 月生产活动整体回暖，制造业 PMI 指数上 行，但仍处于收缩区间，非制造业 PMI、综合 PMI 指数均回升。供给端继 续回升，新订单、新出口订单、生产指数均边际上行，上游价格指数回暖， 主要原材料购进价格、出厂价格指数均回升。3）交运高频指标方面，地铁 客运量指数回落。4）工业生产腾落指数回落，轮胎回升，纯碱持平，山东 地炼、甲醇、唐山高炉、涤纶长丝回落。5）国内政策跟踪：财政部发布关 于在政府采购活动中对自欧盟进口的医疗器械采取相关措施的通知；习近平 主席在山西考察时强调，努力在推动资源型经济转型发展上迈出新步伐；国 新办举行首场"高质量完成'十四五'规划"系列主题新闻发布会。 策略报告 | 投资策略 A 股策略周思考 证券研究报告 "赚指数不赚钱" ，怎么看？ 市场思考：如何看待"赚指数不赚钱"的市场特征？ 1）本周市场指数出现突破上涨，但风格出现切换。中间规模指数表现最 ...

天风证券：看好摆线减速器在人形机器人的应用 智通财经7月13日电，天风证券表示，摆线减速器是RV减速器的一种应用行星式传动原理，采用摆线针 齿啮合的新颖传动装置。当前时间点，看好摆线减速器在人形机器人的应用。摆线减速器的技术特性恰 好填补了行星减速器与谐波减速器方案的不足，有望在人形机器人髋部等展开应用。近期产业链多家公 司推出摆线产品用于人形机器人，并有望解决重量问题，摆线在人形机器人应用比例和用量个数有望提 升。当前时间点，站在产品维度我们看好摆线减速器核心在于：（1）特斯拉已经在接触RV减速器的厂 商，有一定的产业基础；（2）随着产业的发展，不少摆线减速器厂商表示可解决摆线在人形机器人应 用的重量问题。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The role of securities brokers is gradually fading in the securities industry, with a significant reduction in their numbers over the years, reflecting a shift towards wealth management and a changing market demand [1][3][12]. Group 1: Decline in Securities Brokers - The number of securities brokers has decreased from 90,500 in early 2018 to 28,800 by the end of 2024, with projections indicating a further decline to 25,000 by 2025 [1][6]. - As of now, only two firms, Guotai Junan Securities and Founder Securities, have over 1,000 brokers, highlighting the shrinking pool of brokers in the industry [1][5]. Group 2: Reasons for the Decline - The decline is attributed to four main factors: the transition of brokers to client manager roles, the aging workforce leading to retirements, the shift towards investment advisory roles, and the departure of brokers seeking alternative career paths due to declining commission rates [3][4][8]. - The average commission rate in the industry has dropped from 0.038% in early 2018 to approximately 0.018% by 2024, significantly impacting brokers' income [6][10]. Group 3: Transition to Wealth Management - The industry is moving towards a wealth management model, emphasizing professional investment advice and asset allocation services, which has increased the demand for investment advisors [6][10]. - The number of investment advisors has grown from 47,200 in early 2018 to 80,300 by the end of 2024, indicating a shift in focus from traditional brokerage services to advisory roles [11]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Many firms are planning to eliminate the broker role entirely, transitioning to client manager or investment advisor teams to better meet market demands [4][12]. - The exit of brokers is seen as a necessary evolution in the industry, aligning with the need for higher-quality, professional financial services to cater to diverse client needs [4][12].

主力资金早间净流入机械设备、传媒等板块，净流出电子、有色金属等板块。 具体到个股来看，宁德时代、跨境通、巨力索具获净流入11.43亿元、9.48亿元、9.19亿元。 2025.07. 09 本文字数：443，阅读时长大约1分钟 作者 | 一财资讯 截至7月9日午间收盘，沪指报3507.69点，涨0.29%，深成指报10626.87点，涨0.36%，创业板指报 2198.44点，涨0.8%。全市场超3000只个股下跌。 盘面上，大金融板块走强，文化传媒、托育服务、水泥、养殖板块涨幅居前，中字头个股表现活跃；贵金 属、半导体芯片板块走低。 "黄金平替"，单日大跌6%！ 净流出方面，胜宏科技、天风证券、中际旭创遭抛售5.49亿元、4.59亿元、2.82亿元。 沪指盘中突破3500点整数关口，后市可看高一线？东方证券投顾汪啸骅认为，海外市场震荡分化。助推 全球资金回流国内，权益资金积极回补带动指数回升。权重和指标成为近期资金发力主要方向，低位科技 和红利呈现轮动修复结构。市场可能继续加大政策期待，推动指数持续冲击高位。但随着指数再度放量大 涨后，需警惕风险。 微信编辑 | 生产队的驴 推荐阅读 ...

Group 1 - The "anti-involution" policy has become a focal point for various industries, with significant attention from the stock and commodity markets [1][3] - At least 23 brokerages have published 36 research reports on "anti-involution" since July 1, indicating a strong interest in understanding its implications [1] - The central government's emphasis on improving product quality and orderly competition is expected to enhance supply-demand dynamics across industries [1][2] Group 2 - The current "anti-involution" initiative differs from the supply-side reform of 2015-2016 in three key aspects: broader industry coverage, better operating conditions for upstream companies, and a higher proportion of private enterprises in emerging sectors [2] - The "anti-involution" trend has led to a surge in sectors like steel, coal, and photovoltaics, with specific stocks experiencing significant gains [3] - Short-term benefits from industry self-discipline and policy guidance may help narrow supply-demand gaps, but long-term sustainability requires addressing overcapacity and improving profitability [4] Group 3 - Industries likely to benefit from the "anti-involution" policy include the photovoltaic supply chain, traditional sectors with excess capacity like steel and cement, and emerging non-manufacturing sectors such as e-commerce [5][6] - Specific sectors identified as potential beneficiaries include coal mining, coke, common steel, energy metals, glass fiber, precious metals, and the hospitality industry [6]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guohai Securities initiates a "Buy" rating for Dekang Agriculture and Animal Husbandry (02419.HK) with a target price of HKD 154, highlighting the company's strong position in the livestock industry and effective cost management [1] Group 1 - Dekang Agriculture and Animal Husbandry is recognized as a leading player in China's full industry chain of livestock and poultry farming [1] - The company is experiencing a dual boost in its breeding cycle due to the reduction in pig production capacity and a turning point in chicken prices [1] - The report emphasizes the company's excellent cost management capabilities as a significant advantage in the market [1]