证券日报网讯 12月8日，国联民生（601456）在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，公司不存在应披露而 未披露的重大事项。 ...

证券日报网讯 12月8日，国联民生（601456）在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，公司将切实做好经营 管理工作，努力增强公司竞争力，提升公司投资价值，并保持与资本市场的积极沟通，同时妥善有序推 进与民生证券的整合工作，加快提升公司行业地位和综合实力。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The unexpected resilience of China's exports this year, particularly to Africa, has surprised the market, with November exports showing a significant recovery, driven by a 27.6% year-on-year increase in exports to Africa, contributing nearly 1.5 percentage points to overall growth [3][31]. Group 1: Export Growth to Africa - China's exports to Africa have significantly outperformed those to other major trading partners, with the growth rate rising from a negligible 0.2% last year to 1.3% this year, contributing approximately one-quarter of the total export growth [3][31]. - The African market is becoming a new growth point for China's exports amid the backdrop of U.S. tariffs and a restructuring of global trade patterns [3][31]. Group 2: Product Demand and Import Composition - The demand for infrastructure has led to a dominant share of electromechanical products in imports from China to Africa, with machinery, electrical machinery, automobiles, ships, and steel products accounting for about 55% of imports, contributing 75% to the export growth this year [5][35]. - In contrast, labor-intensive products such as plastics, furniture, textiles, and footwear have shown limited growth in export contributions due to factors like low-end industrial transfer and competition from ASEAN countries [9][37]. Group 3: Key Trade Partners - Nigeria and Liberia have emerged as core growth engines for imports from China, with these two countries accounting for 45% of Africa's total imports from China in the first ten months of the year, driving an 11% growth in imports [10][38]. - Nigeria's industrialization has created a rigid demand for machinery and automobiles, while Liberia's unique ship registration policies have led to a 50% year-on-year increase in imports from China [12][40]. Group 4: Future Potential and Economic Outlook - The explosive growth in exports to Africa is attributed to three main catalysts: the restructuring of global trade due to U.S. tariffs, the inherent potential of the African market, and the competitive pricing of Chinese products [20][48]. - The IMF predicts a steady recovery in Africa's economy, with GDP growth in sub-Saharan Africa expected to rise from 4.1% in 2024 to 4.4% in 2026, providing a solid foundation for continued trade growth [24][52]. Group 5: Industrialization and Investment Needs - Africa's low manufacturing share and the need for industrialization present significant growth opportunities, with manufacturing value added expected to account for only 10%-11% of GDP in 2024, far below the average of 20% in some developing countries [26][54]. - Continuous investment from China is crucial for Africa's transition from primary product exports to manufacturing upgrades, creating broad demand for trade [26][54].

监管层面将强化分类监管，对优质机构优化评价指标、适度拓宽资本空间与杠杆上限，提升资本利用效 率；对中小机构、外资机构探索差异化监管政策，促进特色化发展；对问题机构依法从严监管。 在中国证券业协会第八次会员大会上，证监会主席吴清发言时提到，行业机构需立足自身资源禀赋，从 价格竞争转向价值竞争。 头部机构应增强资源整合能力，力争形成若干家具有国际影响力的标杆机构；中小机构需聚焦细分领 域、特色业务与重点区域，深耕细作打造 "小而美" 的精品服务商。 港股中资券商板块： 华泰证券（601688）(06886)、广发证券（000776）(01776)、中国银河（601881）(06881)、国泰海通 (02611)、中金公司（601995）(03908)、中信证券（600030）（06030）、中信建投（601066）证券 (06066)、东方证券（600958）(03958)、光大证券（601788）(06178)、申万宏源（000166）(06806)、中 州证券(01375)、国联民生（601456）(01456)等。 国泰海通发布研报称，吴清主席致辞提出对优质机构适当"松绑"，进一步优化风控指标，适度打开资本 ...

【导读】国联民生（601456）证券总裁葛小波：当好"财富医生"，开好"资产药方" 【编者按】中央金融工作会议首次提出"金融强国"目标，明确要"培育一流投资银行和投资机构"。 新"国九条"的出台绘制了更为清晰的路线图——到2035年，"一流投资银行和投资机构建设取得明显进 展"。 站在"十五五"新征程的起点，金融机构如何践行金融工作政治性、人民性，做实做透金融"五篇大文 章"，服务实体经济高质量发展，为居民财富保驾护航，成为市场关注焦点。为此，中国基金报特推出 对话金融高管专栏，深度对话金融领域"话事人"，为行业发展建言献策。 中国金融行业逐渐步入财富管理与资产管理深度融合的新时代。"证券业高质量发展28条"提出，引导券 商规范开展资产管理业务，提升主动管理能力，更好发挥财富管理与资产管理协同转型的合力，为券商 践行金融人民性、做好社会财富"管理者"提供了新思路。 近期，中国基金报记者独家专访了国联民生证券党委副书记、执行董事、总裁葛小波，深入探讨券商财 富管理转型与资产管理协同发展所面临的机遇和挑战。 "财富管理面对的是人而不是策略，培养充分的信任感是很难的一件事。"在葛小波看来，这正是财富管 理远比资产管 ...

Core Insights - The AI sector is currently undergoing a phase of consolidation, with renewed discussions about the potential for an "AI bubble" [1] - The first half of 2024, particularly Q1 to Q2, is identified as a critical window for observing trends and investment opportunities in the AI industry [1] Group 1: Key Variables Impacting AI Investment - The first key variable is the fundamental enhancement of AI model capabilities, particularly in memory and personalization, which could significantly increase user engagement and willingness to pay [1] - The second key variable is the continuous evolution of multimodal capabilities, which includes advancements in 3D technology, crucial for applications requiring complex interactions with the physical world [2] - The third variable is the renewed emphasis on data value, with high-quality, specialized data assets becoming increasingly important as AI models advance [2] Group 2: Infrastructure and Market Conditions - The fourth variable is the ongoing demand for infrastructure, including traditional hardware and emerging energy support, with significant opportunities remaining in AI infrastructure development [2] - The fifth variable is the changing global liquidity environment, which is expected to positively influence market trends, particularly in the technology sectors of both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [2] Group 3: Overall Market Outlook - The current period is viewed as one of consolidation and positioning, with expectations for a positive boost in the technology sector as liquidity conditions improve and AI technologies evolve [3] - There is a general confidence in the long-term development of the Chinese technology industry, with recent IPOs in the semiconductor and tech sectors generating renewed market interest [3]

Group 1 - The recent phase of consolidation in the artificial intelligence sector has sparked renewed discussions about whether AI has formed a bubble [1][7] - Breakthroughs in Chinese large models, represented by DeepSeek, Kimi, and Tongyi Qianwen, are significantly influencing global capital allocation towards Chinese tech assets [1][7] - DeepSeek has effectively served as a "global advertisement" for Chinese assets, enhancing attention and impacting stock performance and market expectations for domestic internet giants [1][7] Group 2 - Valuation improvement is only one aspect; the focus should also be on substantial changes in the fundamentals [2][8] - Overseas tech giants have achieved considerable revenue growth through AI, and if Chinese companies can demonstrate similar sustainable revenue growth, it could lead to fundamental improvements beyond mere valuation recovery [2][8] - The synergy between valuation enhancement and fundamental improvement will significantly boost market confidence [2][8] Group 3 - A notable trend in AI this year is the leap in multimodal content generation capabilities, which has visibly transformed industries like film and content creation [2][8] - The integration of multimodal capabilities with hardware will create new opportunities, such as AI glasses, which are expected to see significant improvements in user experience as technology advances [3][9] - The commercial viability of intelligent driving is progressing rapidly, with both domestic and international companies enhancing their autonomous driving solutions [3][9] Group 4 - Future investment opportunities are diverse and multifaceted, including expanding code generation scenarios, content creation driven by multimodal capabilities, and hardware integration [4][10] - Intelligent driving is gradually being realized, and the robotics sector is anticipated to meet higher market expectations in the coming year [4][10]

近期，随着AI板块进入阶段性调整，市场上关于"AI是否存在泡沫"的讨论再度升温。12月5日，国联民 生证券研究所副总经理兼海外研究首席分析师孔蓉在与新浪证券直播对话中指出，市场的每一次调整与 质疑，都伴随着产业自身的前进节奏。从ChatGPT开启的生成式AI浪潮以来，这种"在质疑中创新高"的 循环已反复上演。 孔蓉认为，当前关于"泡沫"的讨论，其核心导火索并非技术失效或前景黯淡，而在于产业发展的客观规 律与资本市场主观预期之间出现了"节奏性错配"。人工智能作为一场深刻的变革，其对各行业的渗透与 改造是渐进式的。然而，投资者往往期望在短时间内兑现未来数年甚至十年的增长红利，这种心态导致 市场情绪在极度乐观与过度悲观之间剧烈摆动。当技术进展或商业兑现的速度暂时跟不上被过度透支的 预期时，"泡沫论"便随之兴起。这种由预期差驱动的波动，在过去两三年里已成为市场常态，而非产业 趋势逆转的信号。 关于本轮"AI泡沫"的讨论与历史上的科技泡沫，特别是互联网泡沫有何根本区别？孔蓉表示，互联网的 核心价值在于"信息的连接"，它重塑了信息流通的方式，催生了平台经济。而人工智能的本质是"生产 力的提升"，它直接介入生产与创造过程， ...

Market Overview - A-shares experienced slight fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index recovering above 3900 points and the Shenzhen Component Index surpassing 13000 points, reaching a new high in half a month [1] - Weekly trading volume decreased to 8.48 trillion yuan, marking a new low in nearly five months [1] Financing Activities - Margin traders increased their positions by 9.989 billion yuan this week, with the electronics sector receiving over 2.9 billion yuan in net buying [1] - Other sectors such as machinery, non-ferrous metals, defense, automotive, and food and beverage also saw significant net buying, each exceeding 1 billion yuan [1] - The public utilities sector faced net selling of 990 million yuan, with other sectors like power equipment, basic chemicals, and media also experiencing net outflows exceeding 1 billion yuan [1] Sector Performance - The electronics sector attracted over 31.3 billion yuan in net inflows, while machinery and telecommunications sectors received over 29.6 billion yuan and 21.8 billion yuan, respectively [1] - The defense industry saw net inflows of over 21.7 billion yuan, with non-ferrous metals and automotive sectors also exceeding 10 billion yuan [1] - The media sector experienced a net outflow of over 8 billion yuan, with the computer and banking sectors also facing significant outflows [1] Market Trends - The defense and military industry stocks have shown a trend of strengthening after more than three months of consolidation, particularly in the commercial aerospace sector, which has seen active trading and historical highs [1] - The "2025 Satellite Internet Industry Ecosystem Conference" is scheduled for December 4-5, highlighting the growth potential in the satellite launch sector, which has seen a compound annual growth rate of over 27% in the past decade [2] - Global commercial aerospace is experiencing robust growth, driving demand for rocket launches, with recommendations to closely monitor developments in this sector for investment opportunities [2] New Listings - The recent listing of Moer Technology, a leading full-function GPU company, has garnered significant market attention, achieving a first-day increase of over 425%, setting multiple historical records in the A-share market [3] - Investors who subscribed to Moer Technology could see a profit of approximately 243,100 yuan per lot, marking the highest first-day profit for new listings in A-shares [3] Future Market Outlook - The spring market rally is expected to begin between late December and early January, with historical patterns indicating potential trends [3] - Increased liquidity and investment opportunities are anticipated towards the end of this year and early next year, with a focus on sectors like defense, power equipment, and non-bank financials that are expected to improve [3]

格隆汇12月5日｜国联民生证券研报指出，比亚迪11月新能源汽车批发销售48.0万辆，同比-5.3%，环比 +8.7%；分品牌看，11月王朝海洋、腾势、方程豹、仰望销量分别42.4万辆、13,255辆、37,405辆、703 辆。11月批发环比增长，出海稳步推进。公司加大海外市场投入，比亚迪巴西乘用车工厂落成投产，后 续积极布局乌兹别克、匈牙利、土耳其、印尼布局工厂，我们预计出海有望在欧洲、东南亚、澳新迎来 快速发展，提振盈利。2026年，低温快充电池、天神之眼B激光雷达、云辇-C智能底盘这些原本属于汉 唐旗舰车型的技术，我们预计有望下放到走量车型，进一步构筑"技术护城河"。看好公司技术驱动产品 力与品牌力向上，加速出海，同时高端化稳步推进，维持"推荐"评级。 ...