南华期货沥青风险管理日报 2025年7月9日 凌川惠（投资咨询证号：Z0019531） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 沥青价格区间 | 品种 | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沥青主力合约 | 3400-3750 | 25.83% | 51.99% | source： wind,南华研究,同花顺 沥青风险管理策略建议 | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 套保比例（%） 建议入场区间 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存管理 | 产成品库存偏高，担心沥青价格 | 多 | 为了防止存货叠加损失，可以根据企业的库存情况，做空 | bu2509 | 卖出 | 25% | 3650-3750 | | | 下跌 | | 沥青期货来锁定利润，弥补企业的生产成本 | | | | | | 采购管理 | 采购常备库存偏低，希望根据订 | 空 | 为了防止沥青价格上涨 ...

本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗 漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 根据《上市公司监管指引第 2 号——上市公司募集资金管理和使用的监管要 求》《上海证券交易所上市公司自律监管指引第 1 号——规范运作》等有关规定， 上海剑桥科技股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）于 2024 年 7 月 19 日召开的第 五届董事会第二次会议、第五届监事会第二次会议分别审议通过《关于控股子公 司浙江剑桥通信设备有限公司使用部分闲置募集资金暂时补充流动资金的议案》。 同意公司控股子公司浙江剑桥通信设备有限公司（以下简称"浙江剑桥"）使用 不超过人民币 20,000 万元闲置募集资金暂时补充流动资金，使用期限自公司第 五届董事会第二次会议审议通过之日起不超过 12 个月。具体内容详见公司于 2024 年 7 月 20 日刊登在上海证券交易所网站 www.sse.com.cn 和指定信息披露报 刊上的《关于控股子公司浙江剑桥通信设备有限公司使用部分闲置募集资金暂时 补充流动资金的公告》（公告编号：临 2024-047）。 2024 年 9 月 6 日，上述实际用于暂时补 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Nanhua Futures Silicon Industry Chain Enterprise Risk Management Daily Report - Date: July 2, 2025 - Analysts: Xia Yingying, Yu Weihan - Investment Consulting Business Qualification: CSRC License [2011] No. 1290 [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - Industrial silicon is in the industrial cycle logic of eliminating backward production capacity, with continuous pressure of oversupply. The supply may increase as the wet season approaches, and the inventory may further accumulate. The demand from downstream industries is mixed, and it is necessary to wait for the inventory to reach a healthy level [3]. - Polysilicon is in the logic of strong supply and weak demand. The photovoltaic rush has overdrafted some future demand. If there are production capacity elimination plans or industrial integration agreements in the future, it is expected to improve the situation of the polysilicon industry [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon Price and Volatility - The strong pressure level of the industrial silicon futures main contract is 7,600 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 33.2%, a daily increase of 4.11%, and the current volatility's historical percentile (3 - year) is 95.9% [2]. - The closing price of the industrial silicon futures main contract is 8,210 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 445 yuan (5.73%); the trading volume is 1,643,648 lots, with a daily increase of 413,341 lots (33.60%); the open interest is 386,361 lots, with a daily increase of 25,285 lots (7.00%) [9]. Risk Management Strategies - For inventory management, when the product inventory is high and there is a risk of inventory impairment, short the futures (SI2509) with a hedging ratio of 30%, sell call options (70%), and buy out - of - the - money put options [2]. - For procurement management, when there is a production plan and a risk of raw material price increase, buy long - term futures contracts of industrial silicon according to the production plan, sell put options, and buy out - of - the - money call options [2]. Market Analysis - Bullish factors include limited short - term cost collapse space, low profit valuation, and increased probability of supply - side disturbances; downstream enterprises still have profits, and the approaching wet season will reduce production costs and increase profits, promoting production enthusiasm [6]. - Bearish factors include the approaching wet season leading to increased production capacity in Southwest China and the possible joint production cuts of downstream polysilicon enterprises, weakening demand [7]. Spot and Basis - The latest price of East China 553 industrial silicon is 8,650 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 150 yuan (1.76%); the basis of East China 553 is 440 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 295 yuan (-40.14%) [14]. - The latest price of East China 421 industrial silicon is 8,950 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 150 yuan (1.7%); the basis of East China 421 is 740 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 295 yuan (-28.5%) [14]. Warehouse Receipts - The total number of industrial silicon warehouse receipts is 51,916 lots, a decrease of 221 lots (-0.78%) [23]. Polysilicon Price and Volatility - The strong pressure level of the polysilicon futures main contract is 33,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 39.74%, a daily increase of 8.28%, and the current volatility's historical percentile (3 - year) is 83.73% [2]. - The closing price of the polysilicon futures main contract is 35,050 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 2,350 yuan (7.19%); the trading volume is 411,586 lots, with a daily increase of 150,096 lots (57.40%); the open interest is 95,005 lots, with a daily increase of 33,809 lots (55.25%) [25]. Risk Management Strategies - Similar to industrial silicon, for inventory management, short the futures (PS2509) and use options strategies; for procurement management, buy long - term futures contracts and use options strategies [2]. Market Analysis - Bullish factors include possible future production capacity integration and elimination plans in the industry and the market's trading of the phenomenon of futures - end positions and warehouse receipts [6]. - Bearish factors include the failure of polysilicon enterprise integration and elimination, and the increase in production due to low raw material prices and the approaching wet season [7]. Spot and Basis - The price of polysilicon spot has increased. For example, the price of re - feeding material is 32.5 yuan/kg, with a daily increase of 1 yuan (3.17%) [31]. - The basis of the polysilicon futures main contract is 950 yuan/ton, a decrease of 350 yuan (-26.92%) [31]. Warehouse Receipts - The total number of polysilicon warehouse receipts is 2,600 lots, a decrease of 180 lots compared to the previous day [35]. Other Related Data - The silicon chain index is 0.3577, with a daily increase of 0.0279 (8.46%) [32].

Group 1 - The A-share CPO concept stocks experienced a decline, with Taicheng Guang falling over 5% [1] - Cambridge Technology and Tianfu Communication both dropped more than 4% [1]

| 品种 | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沥青主力合约 | 3400-3750 | 25.89% | 52.15% | source： wind,南华研究,同花顺 南华期货沥青风险管理日报 2025年7月1日 凌川惠（投资咨询证号：Z0019531） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 沥青价格区间 沥青价格及基差裂解-09合约 | | 2025-07-01 | 2025-06-30 | 2025-06-29 | 2025-06-24 | 日度变化 | 周度变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 山东现货价格（元/吨） | 3815 | 3815 | 3805 | 3825 | 0 | -10 | | 长三角现货价格（元/吨） | 3780 | 3780 | 3780 | 3780 | 0 | 0 | | 华北现货价格（元/吨） | 3750 | 3740 | 3750 | 3830 | 10 | -80 | | 华南 ...

Group 1 - CPO concept stocks experienced a sharp decline in the short term, with LianTe Technology (301205) dropping over 6% [1] - De Ming Li (001309) fell more than 4%, while Guang Ku Technology (300620), Zhao Long Interconnect (300913), and Jian Qiao Technology (603083) also saw significant declines [1]

Group 1 - The A-share market's three major indices closed mixed, with the Shanghai 380 Innovation Driven Index rising by 0.25% to 2811.47 points and a trading volume of 20.27 billion yuan [1] - The Shanghai 380 Innovation Driven Index has increased by 4.10% over the past month, decreased by 3.89% over the past three months, and has risen by 5.03% year-to-date [1] - The index is composed of the 50 most innovative listed companies selected from the Shanghai 380 Index based on innovation input and output metrics, reflecting the overall performance of innovative listed companies in the mid-cap market [1] Group 2 - The top ten weighted companies in the Shanghai 380 Innovation Driven Index include Jinzheng Co. (2.29%), Haimeixing (2.19%), Aerospace Electronics (2.13%), and others, with the Shanghai Stock Exchange accounting for 100% of the index's holdings [1] - The industry composition of the index's sample shows that Information Technology accounts for 38.29%, Industry for 28.12%, Communication Services for 15.96%, and other sectors [2] - The index samples are adjusted biannually, with adjustments occurring on the next trading day after the second Friday of June and December, allowing for a buffer zone for new and existing samples [2]

Group 1 - The A-share CPO sector opened mostly higher, indicating positive market sentiment [1] - Robotech Co. saw a significant increase of over 8%, reflecting strong investor interest [1] - New Yisheng experienced a nearly 3% rise, contributing to the overall positive trend in the sector [1] - Other companies such as Tianfu Communication and Cambridge Technology also showed gains, indicating a broader rally in the CPO sector [1]

Group 1 - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has issued supplementary material requirements for seven companies, including Cambridge Technology, which is preparing for an overseas listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [1][2] - Cambridge Technology is a global leader in providing critical infrastructure components to support artificial intelligence development, with sales primarily from optical connection solutions, broadband solutions, and wireless technology solutions [2] - The company is recognized as one of the first in the global OWCD industry to develop 800G and 1.6T optical module products, with its 800G optical module being the most advanced mass-produced product globally as of April 18, 2025 [2] Group 2 - The CSRC has requested Cambridge Technology to clarify its compliance with foreign investment access policies and to provide details on its websites, apps, and user data management practices [1] - The company must also disclose detailed information regarding its overseas fundraising projects and the status of foreign investment approvals or filings [1]

Core Viewpoint - The document outlines the independent director working system of Shanghai Cambridge Technology Co., Ltd, emphasizing the importance of independent directors in maintaining corporate governance and protecting the rights of minority shareholders [1][2]. Group 1: General Provisions - The independent director is defined as a board member who does not hold any other position in the company and has no direct or indirect interests that could affect their judgment [1]. - Independent directors have a duty of loyalty and diligence to the company and all shareholders, particularly minority shareholders [2]. Group 2: Independence of Independent Directors - Independent directors must maintain independence and cannot hold positions in the company or its affiliates, nor have significant shareholdings or relationships that could compromise their independence [3][4]. - Independent directors are required to undergo training and obtain qualifications as mandated by relevant authorities [3]. Group 3: Qualifications and Conditions - To serve as an independent director, candidates must meet specific legal qualifications, possess relevant experience, and have a good personal character without significant misconduct records [9][10][11]. - Independent directors must not have been penalized for securities violations or have any significant negative records in the past three years [7]. Group 4: Nomination and Election - Independent director candidates can be proposed by the board, audit committee, or shareholders holding more than 1% of the company's shares, and must be approved by the shareholders' meeting [12][13]. - The election of independent directors must follow a cumulative voting system, ensuring transparency in the voting process [15]. Group 5: Responsibilities and Duties - Independent directors are responsible for participating in board decisions, supervising potential conflicts of interest, and providing professional advice to enhance decision-making [20][21]. - They have the authority to independently hire external consultants for audits or advice and can propose meetings to address significant issues [21]. Group 6: Performance and Reporting - Independent directors must submit an annual report detailing their attendance, participation in committees, and communication with minority shareholders [36]. - The company is required to provide necessary support and resources for independent directors to fulfill their duties effectively [38][39]. Group 7: Compensation and Insurance - The company must provide reasonable compensation to independent directors, which should be approved by the shareholders' meeting and disclosed in the annual report [44]. - A liability insurance system for independent directors may be established to mitigate risks associated with their responsibilities [43].